I don’t have a guess. So we went ground-truthing stats, state by state. We found the current scenario to be similar to that in the 2015 elections. We obtained and analysed past voting patterns, voter turnouts, voter choice homogeneity, the religious homogeneity index, and so on.

In short, by deploying reliable statistical estimators, we measured the people’s voting predilections and came to the conclusion that Tinubu would win the popular votes and would be the only candidate to satisfy the spread criteria of a minimum of 25% votes in ⅔ of the 36 states (We’ll discuss the methodology in detail later).

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President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions
President Tinubu: State level Predilections and Statistical Predictions

Who will win the presidential race the coming Saturday?

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I don’t have a guess. So we went ground-truthing stats, state by state. We found the current scenario to be similar to that in the 2015 elections. We obtained and analysed past voting patterns, voter turnouts, voter choice homogeneity, the religious homogeneity index, and so on.

In short, by deploying reliable statistical estimators, we measured the people’s voting predilections and came to the conclusion that Tinubu would win the popular votes and would be the only candidate to satisfy the spread criteria of a minimum of 25% votes in ⅔ of the 36 states (We’ll discuss the methodology in detail later).


This prediction cancels out the oft-speculated possibility of having ties at the first instance of the election on February 25, which would then occasion a rerun to determine the winner.

The race is so close and uncertain that people are beginning to wonder, “Would there be a clear winner come February 25, 2023, or would there be a rerun?”

Read other Dataphyte reports

The reason is that Nigeria’s political landscape underwent a seismic shift for good with the emergence of Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) in the race.

But how could Tinubu ever have a clear win?
Nigerians vote, they don’t choose!

Tinubu would win in 2023 as long as the majority of Nigerian voters prioritise the ethnicity and religion of the candidates above the candidates’ capacity to resolve common existential issues like unemployment or absolute poverty.

In the paper, Voting without Choosing? Ethnic Voting Behaviour and Voting Patterns in Nigeria's 2015 Presidential Election and Implications for Institutionalisation of Social Conflicts, Kialee Nyiayaana comments:

“While scholarly examinations portray the presidential election results as 'victory for democracy', not least because an incumbent president was defeated for the first time in Nigeria, analysis of the spatial structure of votes cast reveals a predominant pattern of voting along ethnic, religious and geospatial lines.”

The paper further contends that “this identity-based voting not only translates into a phenomenon of 'voting without choosing,' but is also problematic for social cohesion, interethnic harmony and peacebuilding in Nigeria.”

Nigeria’s 6 Geopolitical Zones



https://datadive.substack.com/p/president-tinubu-predilections-and

See what Edo obedient did to Adams Oshiomhole and his men that made them tear race from their campaign efforts in Benin!

Watch Below:-


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-65VaRiy83o

Who's a bigot more than Helrufai in Nigeria?

That short miget that couldn't even impregnate his wife. I know the man whole father's his children.

Helrufai is as foolish, bigoted and irresponsible as his father.