It might be tempting for opponents of democratic governance to take Nigeria as a case study in why democracy can’t work in Africa. Actually, the opposite is true. In Nigeria, even with its chaotic and flawed process, the system has held and is holding — far better, so far, than might have been expected.

True, Nigeria’s presidential election, on Feb. 25, was a messy affair. Some polling places didn’t open on time. A new electronic voting system to upload results from the 176,000 scattered polling places to a central website seemed to collapse. There were reports of scattered violence in a few places, with ballot boxes stolen at gunpoint. Turnout was disappointing, at 28.6 percent.

The candidate of the current ruling party, Bola Tinubu, was declared the winner with 36 percent of the vote on March 1. But because of the problems, the result is being challenged by his two closest rivals, Atiku Abubakar, who won 29 percent and Peter Obi, who got 25 percent. Mr. Abubakar, Mr. Obi and their supporters claim the election chaos means the voting was rigged in favor of the ruling party, but they have yet to produce concrete evidence of malfeasance. They are demanding the election be rerun.

That doesn’t mean the vote should be discounted. In fact, much good came from it.

It is encouraging, first, that the losing candidates are pursuing their claims through the courts. They have until March 31 to present their petitions to Nigeria’s appeals court tribunal, which would be expected to issue a written decision within 180 days. While the rhetoric has been heated, remarkably there have been no reports of post-election violence, intimidation or threats. No one has blocked highways, as happened in Brazil after Jair Bolsonaro lost his reelection bid. Opposition party supporters have not attempted an insurrection.


Second, Nigeria’s military has stayed out of the fray. This was not a given, since Nigeria’s generals ruled the country after a series of coups for most of the 1980s and ’90s. In Africa and elsewhere, a supposedly flawed election has been a handy excuse for militaries to annul election results and seize power for themselves. It happened in Myanmar in early 2021, for example, despite no evidence of any fraud. If Nigeria’s generals remain on the sidelines this time, it could be taken as evidence that Africa’s most populous country, and its largest economy, has moved past its coup-prone history.


Third, this proved to be Nigeria’s most competitive election since democracy was restored in 1999. Each of the three top candidates — Mr. Tinubu, Mr. Abubakar and Mr. Obi — won 12 of the country’s 36 states, a surprisingly even split. And Mr. Obi, who was projected to win in some polls, could claim a stunning victory in Lagos state, Mr. Tinubu’s home turf. Mr. Obi’s campaign was powered by young, better-educated urban voters savvy with social media, but he was unable to make inroads in more rural and traditional areas. But at 61, he is nearly a decade younger than Mr. Tinubu, 70, and can be expected to be in politics for years to come.

powered by young, better-educated urban voters savvy with social media, but he was unable to make inroads in more rural and traditional areas. But at 61, he is nearly a decade younger than Mr. Tinubu, 70, and can be expected to be in politics for years to come.

Nigeria’s neighbors and its major trading partners, including the United States, have all accepted the result, which most international observers said was largely free and fair, despite problems.

But a delicate period lies ahead. If President-elect Tinubu is eventually confirmed as the winner, he will need Nigerians to fully accept that he was the legitimate victor. This means the losing candidates should have their day in court and be able to present any evidence that election-day problems affected the final result.


Officials have asserted that technical glitches, not sabotage, were the issue and have cited poor internet connections and heavy traffic that slowed the system. But to restore trust, they need to demonstrate this with transparency. All election day irregularities need to be thoroughly examined. And the country’s Independent National Electoral Commission needs to assess what went wrong and fix it. A round of elections on Saturday for 28 governorships and state assemblies seemed to be much better managed and passed without major snafus, despite some scattered reports of violence.

Even a flawed election in Nigeria can set a standard in a part of Africa where staging a coup is more common than canvassing for votes. Among Nigeria’s neighbors, Chad’s military leader, Mahamat Idriss Déby, who seized power when his father was killed in 2021, has repeatedly delayed elections and halted a return to democracy. Military leaders in Mali, which saw coups in 2020 and 2021, have delayed elections until 2024. Guinea’s first democratic leader was toppled in 2021. Niger has been rocked by coup attempts. Benin’s president, Patrice Talon, has clung to power and stacked the parliament, which must approve presidential candidates, with his supporters. In Cameroon, President Paul Biya has ruled since 1982.

An election in Nigeria won’t turn Africa into a democratic utopia. But it can point the way to a different path.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/03/20/nigeria-election-bola-tinubu-democracy-africa/?utm_campaign=wp_opinions&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

Seun Mynd44

Its just a shame that INEC cannot credible elections

A country like India with more than 5 times Nigerias population can conduct credible elections but Nigeria cannot

Its just a shame. Elections are now decided in court rather than the ballot

Should have been Peter Obi points Nigeria in the right direction by going to court and not inflaming the country with hateful rhetorics like buhari did and instigated killing of corpers in 2011 or tinubu supporters are doing now which inflamed ethnic tensions in Lagos. If it were Kwakwanso with his kind of temperament that was brazenly rigged out the way tinubu and Mahmoud did Obi, by now hundreds of Yorubas in Kano would have been slaughtered with long sickle knives

It is encouraging, first, that the losing candidates are pursuing their claims through the courts. They have until March 31 to present their petitions to Nigeria’s appeals court tribunal, which would be expected to issue a written decision within 180 days.

This write up is riddled with a lot of inaccuracies and presuppositions.

But because of the problems, the result is being challenged by his two closest rivals, Atiku Abubakar, who won 29 percent and Peter Obi, who got 25 percent. Mr. Abubakar, Mr. Obi and their supporters claim the election chaos means the voting was rigged in favor of the ruling party, but they have yet to produce concrete evidence of malfeasance. They are demanding the election be rerun.

This makes no sense. They should present evidence to the Washington post or what? Why should the Washingtonpost assume that the "problems" on election day are insignificant when they were not on ground? Foreign observers who were on ground decried the process and encouraged aggrieved parties to channel their grievances through the courts.

But Washingtonpost is now the court of law for aggrieved parties to submit their evidences. Is like agbado don reach their side.

The candidate of the current ruling party, Bola Tinubu, was declared the winner with 36 percent of the vote on March 1. But because of the problems, the result is being challenged by his two closest rivals, Atiku Abubakar, who won 29 percent and Peter Obi, who got 25 percent. Mr. Abubakar, Mr. Obi and their supporters claim the election chaos means the voting was rigged in favor of the ruling party, but they have yet to produce concrete evidence of malfeasance. They are demanding the election be rerun.

What a shame for Atiku and Obi.

Coming from Washington Post that is the mouthpiece of the Liberal Democrats ruling America.

Obi does not intend to prove anything. He just believes in a delusion that he won despite losing woefully in the North with a useless Northern running mate.

As a tribal candidate that he was, he got his highest regional vote from his own SouthEast with 1.9m, while Tinubu got his own highest regional vote from the NorthWest at 2.6m which is higher than the 2.2m he got from his native SouthWest.

Even Atiku got his highest regional vote of 2.3m from the NorthWest despite coming 2nd behind Tinubu there. His own native NorthEast which he won, gave him 1.7m votes.

What must be said is the fact that Peter Obi never had a pathway to victory in terms of majority votes or the requirement of 25% in 2/3 states and FCT (2/3 of 37). Instead, he will forever remain stuck at 16 states instead of the 24 states required.

A fellow Igbo politician, economist, professor, and Governor of the same Anambra state where Obi is from, had already made this statistical submission.

Soludo was hated for stating the facts that have been proven.

My only joy is that some of the hidden Pandora funds would now be spent on our Nigerian economy via the legal profession.

This is the season that lawyers make their own wealth, and Obi must pay more than shi shi.

Third, this proved to be Nigeria’s most competitive election since democracy was restored in 1999. Each of the three top candidates — Mr. Tinubu, Mr. Abubakar and Mr. Obi — won 12 of the country’s 36 states, a surprisingly even split. And Mr. Obi, who was projected to win in some polls, could claim a stunning victory in Lagos state, Mr. Tinubu’s home turf.

But Obi is not satisfied that he is a loser.

He wants to prove that he somehow won in the North, or that he should have been allowed to manufacture 1m votes in Plateau and Lagos?

The guy is a clown.

aariwa:
Should have been Peter Obi points Nigeria in the right direction by going to court and not inflaming the country with hateful rhetorics like buhari did and instigated killing of corpers in 2011 or tinubu supporters are doing now which inflamed ethnic tensions in Lagos. If it were Kwakwanso with his kind of temperament that was brazenly rigged out the way tinubu and Mahmoud did Obi, by now hundreds of Yorubas in Kano would have been slaughtered with long sickle knives

What inflamed ethnic tensions in Lagos was Ibos on social media threatening to elect GRV and afterwards get rid of Lagos Obas and Yoruba tradition in Lagos. And don't forget the decades of stupidly calling Lagos a 'no man's land.' For every action there is an opposite and equal reaction.

According to the Washington Post:

Mr. Abubakar, Mr. Obi and their supporters claim the election chaos means the voting was rigged in favor of the ruling party, but they have yet to produce concrete evidence of malfeasance.

I am glad the international community are beginning to see what we have been saying since the 25th of February. Atiku and his political son, Obi are just sore losers. That's all.

Nigeria can no longer deviate from the democratic path. We have seen all with dictatorship.

The ruling party is testing the resoluteness of Nigerians but we remain committed to going to diplomatic channels to establish accountability and credibility within the system

Any government official who holds power through disreputable means should be alienated by the international community so they can’t travel to America or Europe or any international country or event!

If your countrymen didn’t elect you, you shouldn’t usurp power.

This goes as well to the head of a government who allows the police and security officials and thugs to prevent people from participating in their constitutional duties as citizens in any part of the country without investigations that hold people responsible for their actions and crimes

It’s interesting that one Chude is held on charges of cyberstalking while a certain MC threatened people and it was called a joke by security officials, with the threats subsequently manifesting to reality

Reality is showing some people shege...the train will soon take off,who no board na hin sabi cos we no Dey force anybody.some people that doesn’t even have brt ticket threatening to leave the country if BAT wins the election,how una Dey?.even their oga has not relocated to Ghana yet,people so deluded.

DodadaKoKigbe:


What inflamed ethnic tensions in Lagos was Ibos on social media threatening to elect GRV and afterwards get rid of Lagos Obas and Yoruba tradition in Lagos. And don't forget the decades of stupidly calling Lagos a 'no man's land.' For every action there is an opposite and equal reaction.

True, for the acts of ethnic motivated violence against law abiding residents of Lagos, there are consequences. Even fellow Yorubas have expressed disgust at the acts of violence and voter suppression by you Tinubu supporters

Rather than mobilize people and come out in numbers to vote for your candidate and show dominance, you chose the path of cowardice and disgusting thuggery

It was indeed shameful, and the fact that you even justify what your fellow Tinubu supporters did shows you could possibly be one of them

Nigeria practices agberocracy system of government where the will of MC Oluomo is the will of the people. Infact MC Oluomo is more powerful than the president and the cheif of army staff combined

socialmediaman:
True, for the acts of ethnic motivated violence against law abiding residents of Lagos, there are consequences. Even fellow Yorubas have expressed disgust at the acts of violence and voter suppression by you Tinubu supporters Rather than mobilize people and come out in numbers to vote for your candidate and show dominance, you chose the path of cowardice and disgusting thuggery It was indeed shameful, and the fact that you even justify what your fellow Tinubu supporters did shows you could possibly be one of them

All Yorubas don't have to agree on something. We're not a fascist community. The irregularities and violence in Lagos happened in fewer than 10 polling units. There are 13,000 polling units in Lagos. Using 10 units as a reflection of the entire 13,000 is an indication of a lack of basic statistics. GRV (just like giringory) lost fair and square. There was far more violence in Enugu or even Ebonyi during the election than Lagos. I think yesterday, an entire INEC building was burnt to the ground in a SE state.

If Ibos want to live in peace in Yorubaland, they must take steps to sensitize their people to stop making careless statements that can heat up the polity. Some Yorubas don't care if Ibos called Lagos a 'no man's land.' But I put it to you, the Yorubas that care about it, they really care a lot! GRV anti-Yoruba tweets and his supporters 'stupid' comments on social media sealed his fate.

DodadaKoKigbe:


What inflamed ethnic tensions in Lagos was Ibos on social media threatening to elect GRV and afterwards get rid of Lagos Obas and Yoruba tradition in Lagos. And don't forget the decades of stupidly calling Lagos a 'no man's land.' For every action there is an opposite and equal reaction.

empty boast go near igbo and he will knock your teeth into your mouth and he get money too. Lagos was Nigeria federal capital and belongs to every Nigerian and no tribe. There are many eze ndigbos in Lagos today

Good analysis for Obi supporters to listen to