The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) says it has begun the activation of its standby force in Niger Republic to restore constitutional order.ECOWAS said this after a meeting of the bloc’s defence chiefs in Accra, Ghana’s capital city, on Wednesday.

Although the defence chiefs had backed the calls for dialogue as a mediation tactic in Niger, the group said all elements that would go into any military intervention had been worked out and were being refined. This included the timing, resources needed and how, where and when to deploy such force.

Last Thursday, ECOWAS directed the deployment of standby military troops in Niger after the country’s junta defied the bloc’s deadline to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum.The resolve was made at the end of the second extraordinary summit held to resolve the crisis.

Speaking at the meeting, President Bola Tinubu, ECOWAS chairperson, said the bloc’s leaders were mandated to exhaust all avenues of engagement to ensure a swift return to constitutional governance in Niger.

Tinubu said it was necessary for action because the political crisis in Niger not only poses a threat to the stability of the nation but also has far-reaching implications for the entire West African region.

The ECOWAS chairperson assured that the bloc would remain steadfast in its commitment to supporting Niger in the journey towards peaceful democratic stability in the country.

Few days after the bloc’s actions, Niger’s military junta said they were ready to explore diplomatic dialogue after a meeting with Nigeria’s intervention team comprising Islamic scholars.

However, in a fresh twist, the Niger military administration said it would prosecute the “deposed president and his local and foreign accomplices before the competent national and international authorities for high treason and undermining internal and external security”.

ECOWAS kicked against the development, saying Bazoum’s prosecution would contradict the earlier accepted willingness of the junta to restore constitutional order through peaceful means.

The threat of military force to end the coup in Niger has led to significant divisions in the region.It has heightened tensions in Niger itself, as well as among its neighbours.

There are more and more signs that any military intervention is likely to be met with stiff opposition. Growing support for the junta has emboldened the coup plotters to stay in power and call the bluff of the Economic Community of West African States, Ecowas.

In reaction to the threat of force, more Nigeriens took to the streets to show their opposition, with one protest held close to a French military base in Niamey.

The option of military force has divided countries in west Africa and the Sahel. ECOWAS members are fully aware that an all-out war would increase the fragility of the region. A meeting of Ecowas military chiefs in Ghana on 17 and 18 August will discuss intervention options.

Meanwhile, the Ecowas parliament is divided over a military intervention. Member countries such as Nigeria, which currently holds the rotating chair, are also being put under internal pressure.

Protesters took to the streets in Kano, the biggest city in northern Nigeria, against a possible invasion of Niger.For their part, countries that neighbour Niger but do not belong to Ecowas, such as Chad and Algeria, have opposed the use of force.

As a scholar of politics and international relations, I believe that a military intervention in Niger is unlikely, as I have previously stated. However, the threat of force means tensions remain high. This is under-standable as a great deal is at stake. I have identified three major implications of a full-blown war.

The first casualty would be the ongoing regional war against terrorism because countries currently committed to this fight would have their armies and resources diverted.

The second is that there would be a mass influx of refugees into the seven countries bordering Niger. This would have a knock-on effect as more refugees seek to find their way to Europe.

The third is that the conflict would heighten tensions between Niger and France. The junta blames France for the country’s insecurity and economic woes.

Counting the cost of war
Nigerien soldiers, through the G5-Sahel and Multi-?national Joint Task Force, are involved in the fight against Boko Haram, Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and other terrorist groups around the Lake Chad Basin and other regions of the country. An attack led by Ecowas on Niger would distract the soldiers and divert critical resources.

Terrorist groups could then take advantage of borders weakened by conflict. They could also benefit from a situation where armies which previously fought side by side against insurgents such as Boko Haram and ISWAP were now fighting one another. The example of Syria and how ISIS quickly emerged in the region gives a glimpse of what could happen.

Most of the Nigerien population lives in the southern part of the country next to the borders with Nigeria, Republic of Benin, Burkina Faso and Mali. These countries would suffer an influx of refugees, further destabilising what are already fragile states.

A war between the Nigerien military and Ecowas would embolden human traffickers and lead to more Africans taking advantage of the chaos to travel north towards Europe. Niger has several bilateral and multilateral arrangements with the European Union and other countries in Europe to curb mass migration through Libya and the Mediterranean sea.

Agadez in central Niger used to be a major hub for illegal migration but this has changed as a result of the concerted effort between Niger and its European allies. Military intervention would lead to a total collapse of the relationship between France and Niger’s people. There is already anger among a large part of the Nigerien public against the former colonial master and its activities in the country.

Niger was a French colony from 1922 till they got  independence in 1960 and Paris has continued to play a critical role in the domestic political and economic affairs of the country. If people believe that ECOWAS is being pushed to take military action by France and its allies, Nigeriens could look to Russia which has issued its own warning against military intervention.

While Russia might not have the capacity and resources to fully mobilise in support of the junta, it might engage the Wagner Group, the Russia-backed private military contractor, which already has a presence in neighbouring Mali.

Russia has been careful not to support the coup plotters so as not to upset its allies in Africa, such as South Africa and Namibia, who both oppose the coup. But a full-scale military intervention would provide Moscow with an opportunity to get involved and “gain another ally”. The military leaders in the nation of Burkina Faso for instance have been strengthening  their relationship with Russia.

Limited options
Ecowas is desperate to “do something” after the junta defied its seven-day ultimatum to step down. Mean-while, the junta is not showing any signs of backing down. I think the best option is to rule out military action and to negotiate a short transition period to restore democracy.

Speaking at the meeting, President Bola Tinubu, ECOWAS chairperson, said the bloc’s leaders were mandated to exhaust all avenues of engagement to ensure a swift return to constitutional governance in Niger.

“A government having forced itself into power in a similar way the putschist did in the Niger Republic, cannot be arrogating itself the honour to lead a puritan force against a sovereign nation. The process leading to any electoral activity is a lot more important than its outcome.

The processes that led to the 2023 general election were skewed, manipulated, and rigged. A government that came into office through such illegal means does not have the moral justification to begin to query a similar process perpetrated outside the shores of this country.

If the election is wantonly manipulated, a govt that emerged from such a process is similar to a military coup. A coup is actually where people extend their limit beyond what is being provided by the constitution. When you rig yourself into election, it is also a coup.

Racoon:
Someone who got into government via unconstitutionality is forcefully demand a return to constitutional governance in another sovereign nation. What a wonder!

BigDawsNet:
We are not ready

Lanretoye:
deploy your own military too so you can oust him.

Racoon:
“A government having forced itself into power in a similar way the putschist did in the Niger Republic, cannot be arrogating itself the honour to lead a puritan force against a sovereign nation. The process leading to any electoral activity is a lot more important than its outcome.

The processes that led to the 2023 general election were skewed, manipulated, and rigged. A government that came into office through such illegal means does not have the moral justification to begin to query a similar process perpetrated outside the shores of this country.

If the election is wantonly manipulated, a govt that emerged from such a process is similar to a military coup. A coup is actually where people extend their limit beyond what is being provided by the constitution. When you rig yourself into election, it is also a coup.

Yankee101:
E don happen
Na prayers now
They’ll take over Niger but for how many lives?

Aareakinwunmi:
All ECOWAS countries are broke and underdeveloped, going to war is unnecessary.



Let Nigeriens fight their battles themselves.

VeeVeeMyLuv:

They want to destabilize the entire West Africa.

The leaders are too blind to see it.