Let’s storyboard this out. (Strictly theoretical and not strictly accurate as an all out shooting war wouldnt happen for a lot of reasons, politics and geography mainly, just an idea of how a large scale conventional military exchange would play out).

Israel learns that Iran is advanced in its nuclear warhead production and receives credible intel from Mossad humint assets that they are less than three months away from a bomb and are also producing a new kind of chemical warhead for their IRBMs. Unable to reveal their source to the US the Knesset meets in private and authorises Operation Burning Bush which the IAF have been working on for some time.

At 3am local time, a flight of sixteen F-35s take off from bases in Israel, tank off after departure and fly over Iraq and Syria and into Iran. They are not acquired on any air search radars. At 0429 local time, the sixteen F-35s destroy the warhead manufacture site near Natanz with a mixture of AARGM, Delilah, Popeye and deep penetrator 2,000 lb GBU ordnance. The site is destroyed and no Israeli jets are downed as none of the search radars can get a weapons quality track on them because of a new type of jamming pod or installation on them that the Iranians had not seen before. At the same time, another flight of six F-35s destroy the reactors at Busheyr with standoff munitions from high over the Gulf. All return to base.

The Iranians launch a massive proxy offensive with hundreds of missiles and mortars launched from Palestine and Lebanon into Israel by Iranian proxies, ie: AAMB and Hezbollah and their ilk. The Israeli Air Force respond in kind and many air strikes take place, drones, helicopters and fast air. Israel is widely condemned after pro-Palestinian media shows loops of footage of Israeli Apaches destroying schools, a major mosque and a hospital causing major civilian loss of life.

Iranian proxies in Syria start staging cross border strikes against Israeli targets just across the Syrian border and when the Israeli Air Force crush the raids, they are met with several new S-300 missile batteries and large numbers of Iranian fighters. A major air battle breaks out which Israel dominates decisively but loses more than a dozen warplanes in the process.

The US, angry the Israelis didn’t tell them they were going to strike first, urges restraint and does not commit. Israel stages major raids over Syria and into Iran targeting C&C nodes, air defence radars, air bases, missile sites and logistical hubs. Again the F-35 dominates and Iran loses great swathes of its fighter strength to little effect trying to take them on. Low level F-15I strikes with the new jamming pod are also very effective. Iran brings up a couple of divisions of mechanised troops and their most capable armour, waltzes across the Syrian border and attempts to bring the Israelis to battle south of Manbij. They are reinforced with large numbers of mobile Buk and Tor batteries, plus almost five dozen latest Pantsir S1 acquired from Russia.

The Syrians can do nothing to stop the onslaught and stand by, waiting to see what happens. Any pro-Assad units or Kurdish militia resisting are swatted aside. Pro-Iran Shia factions welcome the Iranian armour with open arms and full fuel trucks. Turkey warns both sides not to get into it on its southern border or it will react militarily but does nothing but mass troops on its border, composing bitterly to the UN and intensify air patrols in that region.

Israel tries but is not very successful in thinning out the Iranian armour wedge with air and cruise missile attacks as the heavy SAM and point defence umbrella makes raids very difficult and costly. After six F-16/15I and two precious F-35s are lost in one day to Pantsir batteries, the Israelis need a rethink. Harrying attacks by Iranian strike jets prevent the Israelis from being their aerial full might to bear.

Finally the Iranian armour reaches the Golan Heights and the dug in Israeli armour begins engaging their lead elements. A big tank and artillery battle ensues. The dug in, hull down Merkava IVs are extremely difficult to penetrate for the Iranian armour from the front at any meaningful distance. So force attacks in any direction but back are made incredibly costly by seemingly endless Spike teams. Their only success comes when they can get round and in between the Israeli armour and live long enough to destroy it with Konkurs/Kornet ATGMs or tank fire. The Israelis know to target the air defence and logistics units in the rear of the formations and as the air umbrella is made threadbare so the Israeli Apaches begin to do real damage with hit and run tactics (at great cost) along the passes.

The Iranian armour slows. Fuel and ammunition becomes difficult to source as brigade commanders reinforce the front air defence assets leaving the tails exposed to dog leg Israeli air strikes.

Iranian IRBMs with conventional warheads begins targeting Israeli airfields. Israeli cruise missiles fired from naval ships and aircraft strike a variety of support targets in Iran and Syria aimed at preventing logistics ops from the Iranian rear. Israel benefits from its far better satellite and aerial recon assets - it receives covert help from GCC and US for intel, satellite pictures and raid warnings despite official protests by the GCC and US to stop the fighting,

An Iranian IRBM hits a shopping mall and a tourist hotel in Eilat and more than three hundred civilians are killed. The world media is horrified but it does not alter its narrative of reporting on the alleged IAF indiscriminate carpet bombing of schools and mosques and the Eilat attacks get nothing like the same coverage.

After four days battling in the Golan Heights the main body of the Iranian divisions has been stopped and the Israeli lines have been reinforced. An airborne brigade lands to the south of the Iranian rear and cuts supply lines. Isolated and unable to resupply, the Iranian commanders decide to commit everything forward to smash the Israeli line under heavy Iranian Air Force cover. The Israelis manage to withdraw and take up collapsing defensive positions through each valley, allowing the Iranian armour to move ahead. The offensive fails when Israeli rocket artillery finally zeroes in on the Iranian fuel reserve sites and seeing that their forward units advancing up the valleys cannot be resupplied and will soon be cut off if they carry on advancing, the Iranians realise the attack is spent.

Chasing the Iranians back up the valleys they had just advanced down, retaining higher ground and using very low level helicopter gunship hit and run attacks, the Iranian armoured divisions are pinned and wiped out in the Golan valleys. Pressing the counter attack, the airborne brigade is linked up and relieved after 72 hours.

The Iranians withdraw right across Syria and do not stop until what’s left of their force reaches the Iranian border. Israeli Air and cruise missike strikes harry them the whole way. Pro-Assad forces use the opportunity to clear the IRGC aligned rebels from Northern Syria. The pro-Iranian units there are crushed by the Government forces. They beg Turkey to intervene but Turkey refuses.

Finally the UN Security Council drafts a ceasefire resolution that both parties sign. Iran is an even bigger pariah state than before, Israel is widely criticised by world media who only want to talk about the air strikes in southern Lebanon that killed the innocent civilians.

Privately the GCC countries are grateful to Israel for doing their dirty work and greater ties are forged from the war. Seven months to the day after the ceasefire, the first Emirates Boeing 787–10 lands at Tel Aviv to great fanfare. A few weeks later Saudi Arabian Airlines follows suit and soon after that Saudi Arabia and the UAE both sign an agreement to allow Israeli airlines to overfly their territories. Israel stops buying Australian and Norwegian natural gas and Nigerian oil and begins importing these from GCC nations, notably including Iraq.

With GCC Arab League blessing a new roadmap is drawn up and Israel recognizes Palestine as a country for the first time, as a new progressive political movement inside the country moves away from their traditional Shia Iranian paymasters (many of whom were killed in the air strikes and spec ops raids during the war).

So who won?

The Iranians lost the meaningful bulk of their nuclear programme (including many of their scientists and all their Plutonium) and then most of their best armoured troops in the offensive, almost all their fast air strike capability and the vast majority of their mobile SAM systems, including all of the precious Pantsirs.

The Israelis lost more than thirty jets, suffered substantial casualties to two of its mountain-specialised heavy armoured brigades but both remained combat capable. Israel was able to replace most of the jet fighter losses from spare F-15s in storage and Merkava IIIs from its reserve stores. It fired 65% of all its Iron Dome stocks and almost 80% of its Spike and SpikeLR stocks.

It is a bloody conflict but Israel is the clear winner.

Note:

The above narration is based on the worst case scenarios for IDF and best for Iran.

This is because Iran has nothing like the air power to even concern the IAF, let alone cause them any real damage. So the idea they could move large armoured forces to Golan is ridiculous.

Furthermore, Israel has twice the number of Merkava III and IV compared to Iranian MBTs, and the Iranian Heinz 57 varieties of obsolete armour would be shredded by the Merkavas, IAF and rocket artilley before they could even get in range of the Merkavas.


Source: Crowdsource from Quora

There will be no winner, they will both eliminate each other

Globally, Iran is ranked 17 and Israel 18, though Israel has nuclear weapons and western support but Iran has deadly weapons that can travel 1200 miles reaching every corner of Israel, Iran also has different proxies in the region

God1000:
There will be no winner, they will both eliminate each other

Story

The distance is too massive for an all out war.rather Iran will empower hezbollah to fight israel using Lebanon.If this happens,hezbollah will surely lose the war and Iran will suffer too.Because my gut tells me israel is just waiting for Iran to make mistakes so they can bomb their nuclear facility or better still kill their leader.talking about cutting the head of the snake.
Hezbollah cannot defeat israel,everybody knows that.

misreal:
The distance is too massive for an all out war.rather Iran will empower hezbollah to fight israel using Lebanon.If this happens,hezbollah will surely lose the war and Iran will suffer too.Because my gut tells me israel is just waiting for Iran to make mistakes so they can bomb their nuclear facility or better still kill their leader.talking about cutting the head of the snake.
Hezbollah cannot defeat israel,everybody knows that.

Iran has huge presence in Syria, which shares border with Israel

OfficialAPCNig:

Iran has huge presence in Syria, which shares border with Israel

una go leave wetin dey happen 4 una backyard dey shook mouth 4 wetin dey happen 4 faraway Israel, nairaland war analyst

OfficialAPCNig:

Iran has huge presence in Syria, which shares border with Israel

yeah..Lebanon will suffer if war breaks out between Israel and Hamas.

Very passionate with your analysis but remember the US too is waiting for Iran to attack Israel.....Iran can only rely on proxy because they know what is at stake

The only thing here is that this has happened before between Israel and the Arabs.
And Israel won.

So 1-0 to Israel already.

Satan. The Devil is always the winner when men choose to spill other people’s blood!

OfficialAPCNig:

Iran has huge presence in Syria, which shares border with Israel

Official APE, leave Israel and Iran matter. Tell us, why did your principal forge his CSU certificate he presented to inec for the 2023 presidential election?

YouandiAllofus:

Official APE, leave Israel and Iran matter. Tell us, why did your principal forge his CSU certificate he presented to inec for the 2023 presidential election?

Sorry, I don't do APC again.

Only those who love suffering and smiling are still defending APC.

OfficialAPCNig:

Sorry, I don't do APC again.

Only those who love suffering and smiling are still defending APC.

😂😂😂 Kan't stop laughing. I wish I could give this your post a thousand like.
Hellinus, yarimo, legendhero, manamana, mynd44 the ground patron.
Come o... Your headquarters is evaquating

OfficialAPCNig:

Sorry, I don't do APC again.

Only those who love suffering and smiling are still defending APC.

the thing don touch u too.


well let the Israel and Hama/ iran discussion continue.

but mind u nothing pass peace

Without USA supporting Isreal, Iran will win

tolexy007:






the thing don touch u too.


well let the Israel and Hama/ iran discussion continue.

but mind u nothing pass peace

All the APC e-troverts with small sense of decorum are all hiding in shame now!
Only a few number of them with loosed sense still running on awoke shamelessly. But by the time hardship has finished with the fastening of all the loosed nuts in their brains, they will all receive sense.

Many things to factor in.
The obvious one is "who is backing who"
The west that are backing Israel also backed Ukraine and Ukraine lost.
Iran backed Russia and Russia is winning so far, Ukraine is out of weapons.
Think about that for a moment

God1000:
There will be no winner, they will both eliminate each other

Globally, Iran is ranked 17 and Israel 18, though Israel has nuclear weapons and western support but Iran has deadly weapons that can travel 1200 miles reaching every corner of Israel, Iran also has different proxies in the region

shut up , you this fake Christian that demonize israel at any given opportunity. Antichrist online,globalist supporter,gay lover,hezbollah and hamas lover, political correctness cult member,Biden as*licker, republicans hater, israel hater, homosexual lover, evil person. I pray God of Israel to disgrace you henceforth.

OfficialAPCNig:
Let’s storyboard this out. (Strictly theoretical and not strictly accurate as an all out shooting war wouldnt happen for a lot of reasons, politics and geography mainly, just an idea of how a large scale conventional military exchange would play out).

Israel learns that Iran is advanced in its nuclear warhead production and receives credible intel from Mossad humint assets that they are less than three months away from a bomb and are also producing a new kind of chemical warhead for their IRBMs. Unable to reveal their source to the US the Knesset meets in private and authorises Operation Burning Bush which the IAF have been working on for some time.

At 3am local time, a flight of sixteen F-35s take off from bases in Israel, tank off after departure and fly over Iraq and Syria and into Iran. They are not acquired on any air search radars. At 0429 local time, the sixteen F-35s destroy the warhead manufacture site near Natanz with a mixture of AARGM, Delilah, Popeye and deep penetrator 2,000 lb GBU ordnance. The site is destroyed and no Israeli jets are downed as none of the search radars can get a weapons quality track on them because of a new type of jamming pod or installation on them that the Iranians had not seen before. At the same time, another flight of six F-35s destroy the reactors at Busheyr with standoff munitions from high over the Gulf. All return to base.

The Iranians launch a massive proxy offensive with hundreds of missiles and mortars launched from Palestine and Lebanon into Israel by Iranian proxies, ie: AAMB and Hezbollah and their ilk. The Israeli Air Force respond in kind and many air strikes take place, drones, helicopters and fast air. Israel is widely condemned after pro-Palestinian media shows loops of footage of Israeli Apaches destroying schools, a major mosque and a hospital causing major civilian loss of life.

Iranian proxies in Syria start staging cross border strikes against Israeli targets just across the Syrian border and when the Israeli Air Force crush the raids, they are met with several new S-300 missile batteries and large numbers of Iranian fighters. A major air battle breaks out which Israel dominates decisively but loses more than a dozen warplanes in the process.

The US, angry the Israelis didn’t tell them they were going to strike first, urges restraint and does not commit. Israel stages major raids over Syria and into Iran targeting C&C nodes, air defence radars, air bases, missile sites and logistical hubs. Again the F-35 dominates and Iran loses great swathes of its fighter strength to little effect trying to take them on. Low level F-15I strikes with the new jamming pod are also very effective. Iran brings up a couple of divisions of mechanised troops and their most capable armour, waltzes across the Syrian border and attempts to bring the Israelis to battle south of Manbij. They are reinforced with large numbers of mobile Buk and Tor batteries, plus almost five dozen latest Pantsir S1 acquired from Russia.

The Syrians can do nothing to stop the onslaught and stand by, waiting to see what happens. Any pro-Assad units or Kurdish militia resisting are swatted aside. Pro-Iran Shia factions welcome the Iranian armour with open arms and full fuel trucks. Turkey warns both sides not to get into it on its southern border or it will react militarily but does nothing but mass troops on its border, composing bitterly to the UN and intensify air patrols in that region.

Israel tries but is not very successful in thinning out the Iranian armour wedge with air and cruise missile attacks as the heavy SAM and point defence umbrella makes raids very difficult and costly. After six F-16/15I and two precious F-35s are lost in one day to Pantsir batteries, the Israelis need a rethink. Harrying attacks by Iranian strike jets prevent the Israelis from being their aerial full might to bear.

Finally the Iranian armour reaches the Golan Heights and the dug in Israeli armour begins engaging their lead elements. A big tank and artillery battle ensues. The dug in, hull down Merkava IVs are extremely difficult to penetrate for the Iranian armour from the front at any meaningful distance. So force attacks in any direction but back are made incredibly costly by seemingly endless Spike teams. Their only success comes when they can get round and in between the Israeli armour and live long enough to destroy it with Konkurs/Kornet ATGMs or tank fire. The Israelis know to target the air defence and logistics units in the rear of the formations and as the air umbrella is made threadbare so the Israeli Apaches begin to do real damage with hit and run tactics (at great cost) along the passes.

The Iranian armour slows. Fuel and ammunition becomes difficult to source as brigade commanders reinforce the front air defence assets leaving the tails exposed to dog leg Israeli air strikes.

Iranian IRBMs with conventional warheads begins targeting Israeli airfields. Israeli cruise missiles fired from naval ships and aircraft strike a variety of support targets in Iran and Syria aimed at preventing logistics ops from the Iranian rear. Israel benefits from its far better satellite and aerial recon assets - it receives covert help from GCC and US for intel, satellite pictures and raid warnings despite official protests by the GCC and US to stop the fighting,

An Iranian IRBM hits a shopping mall and a tourist hotel in Eilat and more than three hundred civilians are killed. The world media is horrified but it does not alter its narrative of reporting on the alleged IAF indiscriminate carpet bombing of schools and mosques and the Eilat attacks get nothing like the same coverage.

After four days battling in the Golan Heights the main body of the Iranian divisions has been stopped and the Israeli lines have been reinforced. An airborne brigade lands to the south of the Iranian rear and cuts supply lines. Isolated and unable to resupply, the Iranian commanders decide to commit everything forward to smash the Israeli line under heavy Iranian Air Force cover. The Israelis manage to withdraw and take up collapsing defensive positions through each valley, allowing the Iranian armour to move ahead. The offensive fails when Israeli rocket artillery finally zeroes in on the Iranian fuel reserve sites and seeing that their forward units advancing up the valleys cannot be resupplied and will soon be cut off if they carry on advancing, the Iranians realise the attack is spent.

Chasing the Iranians back up the valleys they had just advanced down, retaining higher ground and using very low level helicopter gunship hit and run attacks, the Iranian armoured divisions are pinned and wiped out in the Golan valleys. Pressing the counter attack, the airborne brigade is linked up and relieved after 72 hours.

The Iranians withdraw right across Syria and do not stop until what’s left of their force reaches the Iranian border. Israeli Air and cruise missike strikes harry them the whole way. Pro-Assad forces use the opportunity to clear the IRGC aligned rebels from Northern Syria. The pro-Iranian units there are crushed by the Government forces. They beg Turkey to intervene but Turkey refuses.

Finally the UN Security Council drafts a ceasefire resolution that both parties sign. Iran is an even bigger pariah state than before, Israel is widely criticised by world media who only want to talk about the air strikes in southern Lebanon that killed the innocent civilians.

Privately the GCC countries are grateful to Israel for doing their dirty work and greater ties are forged from the war. Seven months to the day after the ceasefire, the first Emirates Boeing 787–10 lands at Tel Aviv to great fanfare. A few weeks later Saudi Arabian Airlines follows suit and soon after that Saudi Arabia and the UAE both sign an agreement to allow Israeli airlines to overfly their territories. Israel stops buying Australian and Norwegian natural gas and Nigerian oil and begins importing these from GCC nations, notably including Iraq.

With GCC Arab League blessing a new roadmap is drawn up and Israel recognizes Palestine as a country for the first time, as a new progressive political movement inside the country moves away from their traditional Shia Iranian paymasters (many of whom were killed in the air strikes and spec ops raids during the war).

So who won?

The Iranians lost the meaningful bulk of their nuclear programme (including many of their scientists and all their Plutonium) and then most of their best armoured troops in the offensive, almost all their fast air strike capability and the vast majority of their mobile SAM systems, including all of the precious Pantsirs.

The Israelis lost more than thirty jets, suffered substantial casualties to two of its mountain-specialised heavy armoured brigades but both remained combat capable. Israel was able to replace most of the jet fighter losses from spare F-15s in storage and Merkava IIIs from its reserve stores. It fired 65% of all its Iron Dome stocks and almost 80% of its Spike and SpikeLR stocks.

It is a bloody conflict but Israel is the clear winner.

Note:

The above narration is based on the worst case scenarios for IDF and best for Iran.

This is because Iran has nothing like the air power to even concern the IAF, let alone cause them any real damage. So the idea they could move large armoured forces to Golan is ridiculous.

Furthermore, Israel has twice the number of Merkava III and IV compared to Iranian MBTs, and the Iranian Heinz 57 varieties of obsolete armour would be shredded by the Merkavas, IAF and rocket artilley before they could even get in range of the Merkavas.


Source: Crowdsource from Quora

You might want to read this too.How Israel ranks among Arabia, the 22 Arab nations as a block.

Another beer parlor analyst

NL do not seize to amaze me

Copied from an American site,very funny guys