The float is coming The dollar rises again on the black market, and Naguib Sawiris' Orascom sells its assets in Egypt

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QpjmThpMVA?si=UgPTVNGrk4rQA5My
New Egyptian economy presented by this episode of Samri Channel.
Bloomberg wrote under the title “5 indicators that may reveal the date of reducing the price of the Egyptian pound”: “Egypt is still mired in a stressful economic crisis that has left its population of more than 105 million people in a state of uncertainty, but one thing seems very certain. This is that a possible devaluation of the pound is on the way. This expected step will be the fourth major round in the journey of devaluing the Egyptian pound since early 2022, and may be the largest yet. If implemented correctly, it may help move closer to justice. On the worst hard currency scarcity crisis the country has witnessed in decades, which may help attract foreign capital to the $400 billion economy and save it from the brink of abyss. $25 billion over the next four years.But the timing of the reduction depends on a range of external and domestic issues, with authorities concerned about the impact of high inflation accompanying the devaluation of the currency on a population already suffering from high prices.

Here are five key themes to monitor:

Bridging the gap between the black and official markets
After the dollar reached a record high of more than 70 pounds in the parallel market earlier this month, the pound witnessed a partial appreciation. With the recent authorities crackdown that forced many illegal currency dealers to close their operations, the rate now ranges between 60 and 65 pounds to the dollar.
Although the parallel rate is still about double the official rate of 30.9 pounds, further cooling of the exchange rate will make it easier to devalue the currency. Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris recently suggested that the authorities try to reconcile the two prices.

Signals from the IMF
The International Monetary Fund has been urging Egypt for months to devalue its currency. This issue is considered a major issue in the talks to reach a new, expanded agreement with the bank and partners that could guarantee Egypt financing of about 10 billion dollars.
Any comment from International Monetary Fund Director Kristalina Georgieva represents a useful indication in studying signals regarding the timing of the devaluation of the Egyptian currency. Georgieva said this month that the IMF and Egypt are in the “final stage” of reaching an agreement, and she described working with Egypt as “a top priority for the IMF” during a meeting with Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly. There may be more signs

High interest rates
Egypt usually devalues its currency in conjunction with tightening monetary policy, a move that seeks to curb domestic demand and attract investment in local assets, by making returns more profitable.
The central bank raised its benchmark interest rate in conjunction with two currency devaluations in 2022, and also raised interest rates significantly less than two weeks before the last devaluation. On February 1, officials raised the interest rate on deposits for the first time since August to 21.25%, the highest level ever, and it is not unlikely that there will be a further increase soon.

Big deals pay off
Egypt has put more than two dozen state-owned assets, from banks to power plants and gas stations, on public auction in an effort to secure foreign currency. Sales have rebounded after a slow start, with Egypt reporting more than $2 billion in revenue in the second half of 2023.
A new major investment could provide the financial support necessary for officials in Egypt to devalue the pound without running the risk of its value falling more than the target. One such possibility involves Abu Dhabi's talks to buy and develop Ras El Hekma, a prime area on Egypt's Mediterranean coast. The initial cost of this project has been estimated at $22 billion.

Finally: Ramadan is approaching
One obstacle is that these challenges coincide with the holy month of Ramadan, which is scheduled to begin this year around March 10, which may impose an unofficial deadline for devaluation before then. Ramadan is a time of large family gatherings and extended evening meals, and it is unlikely that the authorities will wait until then to expose Egyptians to a sudden price shock.
It is possible that the government is preparing the population for higher inflation, as it announced last Wednesday an increase in the minimum wage for state employees by 50%, effective next March. It is part of a broader social protection package that authorities say is worth about 180 billion pounds ($5.8 billion).