South African politics
Bye-bye JuJu
Nov 10th 2011, 15:54 by D.G. | JOHANNESBURG


AT FIRST it sounded as if the disciplinary hearings of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) against Julius Malema, firebrand leader of the party's youth wing, were heading for another cop-out. Found guilty of deliberately barging into a meeting of senior party officials, including President Jacob Zuma, he and four other Youth League leaders were suspended from the party for two years (cue loud gasps from the media). But, Derek Hanekom, chairman of the ANC's national disciplinary committee, continued, this sentence would in its turn be suspended for three years.

Only if Mr Malema or the others were found guilty of further misconduct during that time would they actually be suspended. This sounded remarkably similar to the treatment the 30-year-old politician received when he was first hauled before the party's disciplinary committee in May last year. He was then given a suspended sentence of two years and ordered to attend political education and anger-management classes.

He did neither of those things. Instead he continued to act more defiantly and outrageously, openly disparaging Mr Zuma, making racist slurs, urging the nationalisation of mines and banks and the expropriation of farms without compensation, and extolling the virtues of African dictators like Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe and Libya's Muammar Qaddafi, while calling for Youth League "command teams" to be sent into neighbouring democratic Botswana to help "liberate" the country from its "imperialist puppet regime".

For a while, Mr Zuma did nothing. Mr Malema and the Youth League used to be among his most ardent supporters, helping catapult him into power as head of the ANC in 2007. he wanted to ensure their backing, or at least their neutrality, in the run-up to the party's critical "elective" conference next year when all office-bearers, including the party's president, will be up for election. A year ago, Mr Zuma was still hailing the wayward youth chief as a "future leader" of his party. But he seems to have understood at last that Mr Malema has turned into an implacable opponent.

In the sweltering lobby of the ANC's headquarters in downtown Johannesburg on November 10th, Mr Hanekom was nearing the end of his two-hour statement on the outcome of Mr Malema's latest disciplinary hearings. The verdict on the charge of sowing divisions within the ANC, bringing the party into disrepute, and propagating racism? Guilty. In view of what had gone before, that was expected. The sentence? Mr Malema to be suspended from the ANC for five years forthwith and stripped of his post as leader of the Youth League. That was not.

It could spell the downfall of one of South Africa's best known and most controversial political figures. Mr Malema immediately said he would lodge an appeal with the disciplinary committee’s appeals division. If it upholds the ruling, the sentence will come into immediate effect. He has no further right of appeal. The party's national executive committee has the right to review the process and, if it wishes, to overturn the ruling and throw out the sentence. But this would split the party down the middle.

Mr Malema was not present to receive the committee's verdict and sentence. Perhaps wisely, he had absented himself, claiming that he had to sit an exam 500km away in Polokowane for a degree in political science he is pursuing at the distance-learning University of South Africa. Having failed to pass his basic school-leaving exam, this was obviously important for him. Outside the examination hall, he struck a defiant pose, saying he was not intimidated and would continue to fight. "We will never apologise; the gloves are off!"

Meanwhile, his business ventures—his other main source of power—are also coming under scrutiny. Criminal investigations are already under way into his alleged manipulation of public tenders in Limpopo, his home province, to the benefit of family members and friends. The tax authorities are also after him. Questions have long been asked how Mr Malema, with his luxury cars, designer clothes and string of properties, can afford such a lavish lifestyle on his relatively meagre Youth League salary.

This could be the end of the road for this ambitious, loud-mouthed but charismatic and politically savvy young man. But Mr Malema is a fighter and still has many friends in high places. He has the power to go on making a lot of trouble for Mr Zuma. South Africa has not heard the last yet of this popular populist, who has fired the imagination of the country's millions of angry, unemployed, dispossessed youth.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/baobab/2011/11/south-african-politics?fsrc=scn/fb/wl/bl/byebyejuju

Speechless at this point,