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Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU - Politics (4) - Nairaland

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Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by predictor1: 9:04am On Mar 11
Blazetrailer:


Lol...that last line shows that you do not understand how things work.

Nigerian govt. can not resist borrowing. in fact, the main reason Tinubu is running from pillar to post to Arabian countries even when they don't want him is to seek for foreign loans/investments. NIGERIA IS ILLIQUID!!! The little money you see circulating in the economy is the ways and means(free currency printing) granted by Emefiele. No inflow is coming from Oil sale(the oil production for next 18 months have been used as futures/derivates). Whatever the govt is calling inflow from recent publications are portfolio investment that will have to be taken out of the country by their investors. This current government might have no other option than to turn to the ways and means that they have been badmouthing recently. The subsidy is back, even bigger that it was despite the government being hush about it. No foreign organisation wants to grant Nigerian loans because the feel the reforms were not well implemented.

Now, let's say you were the president, what would you do? Things are getting scarier.
Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by haffaze777(m): 9:44am On Mar 11
First and second poster here are Olopolo kukuru,you wonder why their mother has been selling their siblings lately.
Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by KingExalted: 9:52am On Mar 11
I think the country is becoming ungovernable.
Nigeria should be united first to make any progress. We need the commitment of everyone to change this country. Borrowing is not the issue. What are you going to do with the money? Parastatals, institutions, politicians,
and government officials will loot the money. The corruption will not allow anything good in this country to thrive.

1 Like

Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by Blazetrailer: 10:02am On Mar 11
bejeria101:
I wonder o, clueless clowns


...on the contrary, you appear like the clown here. If you don't understand that the Govt. of Nigeria is ILLIQUID and dont have anywhere else to fund the budget (including the increasing fuel subsidy), then your cluelessness is incurable, I am sorry.

Currently, the Govt. is negotiating loans with foreign lenders, maybe you are not so current. The Govt has taken nearly $5.5bn since October last year to defend the naira and would certainly need more to keep the country moving on. The people telling you the truth are the foreigners. Read wide and be enlightened and stop listening to the commercial bus park or residential estate whatsapp group discussions.

1 Like

Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by sulaak(m): 10:07am On Mar 11
The EIU's advice on taking loans to protect the Naira and increase the country's foreign reserves is bad advice and should be ignored, just like they should have ignored the World Bank's advice on floating the Naira.

Due to excessive corruption in Nigeria, the country should focus on investment. Any loans into Nigeria will be stolen and wasted by Nigeria's political elites.

Any new loans to Nigeria will be excessive, considering Nigeria's high-risk and moody ratings at B and C.

The president's team has got one thing right. Seek foreign investments from the Gulf states (UAE, S Arabia and Oatar). The above countries are looking for new markets in which to invest their excess funds. Nigeria should seek investment in LPG and LNG to build new deep sea ports and agriculture.




Aramco in Talks for US LNG Projects as Mideast Gas Race Heats Up, Saudi state company in discussions with a number of entities
Others in the region are also betting big on the LNG sector.

Saudi Aramco is in talks with companies for liquefied natural gas projects in the US as it looks to the fuel for global growth at a time when rivals in the region are also expanding in the sector.

The world’s biggest crude oil exporter is in “discussions with several entities in the US and other regions, Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser said on an earnings call with reporters. The company will focus on LNG internationally and look to use its gas output at home to produce blue hydrogen and power, he said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-10/aramco-in-talks-for-us-lng-projects-as-mideast-gas-race-heats-up

Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by Blazetrailer: 10:24am On Mar 11
......they are not advising, they just stated the inevitable. if you do not know, the Minister of Finance has been going around the globe seeking
for more foreign loans, there is an on-going discussion of $1bn with world bank. I believe you will hear it soon when it is announced, it is a matter of time. Currently, Nigeria can not survive without loans. The reforms were poorly and hastily implemented.


sulaak:

The EIU's advice on taking loans to protect the Naira and increase the country's foreign reserves is bad advice and should be ignored, just like they should have ignored the World Bank's advice on floating the Naira.

Due to excessive corruption in Nigeria, the country should focus on investment. Any loans into Nigeria will be stolen and wasted by Nigeria's political elites.

Any new loans to Nigeria will be excessive, considering Nigeria's high-risk and moody ratings at B and C.

The president's team has got one thing right. Seek foreign investments from the Gulf states (UAE, S Arabia and Oatar). The above countries are looking for new markets in which to invest their excess funds. Nigeria should seek investment in LPG and LNG to build new deep sea ports and agriculture.





1 Like

Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by Advancedman(m): 10:33am On Mar 11
Thunder fire EIU
Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by panpan(m): 11:08am On Mar 11
One of the major causes of the fall of the naira is foreign borrowing.

When the federal government takes foreign loans, they are indirectly taking money from the Nigerian population through naira devaluation, increase in the price of petroleum products, and general inflation.
Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by Blazetrailer: 11:42am On Mar 11
...why? for stating the obvious?

Advancedman:
Thunder fire EIU

1 Like

Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by Dpharisee: 12:13pm On Mar 11
nedekid:
As a layman in economics, I think we should put a moratorium on all new projects for the next 2 years, heavily cut down on government spending. You cannot have low income, borrowing money, then building bridges and roads etc. That may be a recipe for desaster. Sinking deeper into debt. Look at it like our guys on this forum and loan shark sokoloan. You are broke, you take sokoloan with no means of payback. You then use the money to buy phone, inststead of turning it over several times in your existing business then using the gain to buy the phone.
One of the ex presidential candidates did that in his state. A state in debt, cut down expenses, turned the accounts from red to green and then left huge cash in the account for his predicessor to continue, with the intention that he will sustain the momentum, spending in a sustainable way out of saved amount. But what will Nigerians say, he did nothing, no new road no this no that. How do you spend on infrastructure through borrowing? Will you be in debt and then take loans to buy new car, build new house, or rather use the money to revive your business and when it makes profit, use the profit to build the house and buy the cars?

@bolded is supposed to be his successor
Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by grandstar(m): 12:16pm On Mar 11
nairalee:
Na lie. Nigeria has defied most economic theories. Most policies that worked in other countries have failed woefully in Nigeria because we have very selfish and greedy people that benefits from the decay we're currently facing

This was the most indepth analysis of the Nigerian economy I have ever seen this year and you reply "na lie."

What an uneducated response

1 Like

Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by Zooposki(f): 12:44pm On Mar 11
Blackfire:
More like remove the rope from the slaves and exchange it for heavy chain

grin

Slavery never left, it only change face

Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by banku: 12:52pm On Mar 11
A basket can never hold water not to talk of leaking one like Nigeria. The reason they are going round to borrow dollars is to maintain a leaking basket. USA is the biggest debtor, yes. But in what currency?

Dollar is NOT our local currency to support foreign imports, exotic tastes, junk and used electronics, clothes, plastics, pins, pencils, toothpicks etc.

Until drug addicts kick foreign Opium and consume what they produce, we will never get out of this vicious circle of addiction.

Wise families, State or countries only borrow to pay for investments that brings returns to make them independent.

What returns have borrowing to support Naira ever brought as investment return to Nigeria except to support exotic tastes?
Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by nairalee(m): 12:52pm On Mar 11
grandstar:


This was the most indepth analysis of the Nigerian economy I have ever seen this year and you reply "na lie."

What an uneducated response


The fact that u took only my first two words of "Na lie" without considering the reason I gave shows your own level of shallow reasoning.
Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by Pakman: 12:59pm On Mar 11
malali:
I am not an expert, but i think we should look inwards and privatize some government assets.
And also seek debt forgiveness, we cannot keep borrowing and borrowing.
The interests rate around the world right now is crazy.
If you borrow money from anyone, you might as well pay back with slaves.
Which is technically what is happening now in the world, the western powers borrow us money that paying becomes difficult, Nigerians end up japa-ing as living conditions are tough in Nigeria.

Then when they get abroad the japa people are exploited. So technically they are not coming to capture slaves in Badagry anymore but they are making the slaves come to them.

90% of African leaders up tilll today, have been cowards from the days of slavery.

1 Like

Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by Zetty177x: 1:37pm On Mar 11
Major7:







Tribalism has eaten deep into your brain,hence the malfunctions. Suffering knows no tribe dude wake up

My dear...it's called reality. Y'all voted someone cos of tribe....he's not ready to reverse his stupid, senseless policies until y'all die... people are gonna die ..if u don't eat well, u get sick, and when u get sick and get a major illness, u ain't coming out...I love my Yoruba peeps...but this man right there is not a true Yoruba. He's wicked
Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by Paraman: 1:42pm On Mar 11
The CBN governor said he will clear the backlog before the end of april
Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by nedekid: 1:50pm On Mar 11
Dpharisee:


@bolded is supposed to be his successor
Thanks for the correction.
Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by Jaqenhghar: 2:32pm On Mar 11
Blazetrailer:


Comprehension issue!! You are the unintelligent one. Now read

1.The govt is not getting forex inflows. All future oil sales for months/years have been locked up in future/derivates, meaning the oil have been sold in advance and money collected by previous administration.

2. The current govt came up with an expansionary budget, designed to spend its way out of economic challenges, hence a very huge budget

3. The subsidy is back, meaning govt have to spend more than it budgeted in order to avoid social strife/disruption

4. No multilateral/bilateral organisation is willing to give Nigeria further loans due the poor ratings and so because they feel that the reforms were half hearted and there might be irrational govt interventions soon based on on-going events.

5. The only option left is to borrow internally through ways and means(same thing previous admin did)

All of the above are facts in the open.

Do you understand now?

You dont even see how dumb you are. I am telling the reason why these problems you highlighted came about, and why using the same tactics wont cuange anything. You are highlighting the problems again. Na wa
Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by xtian110: 2:47pm On Mar 11
See as I dey look this country

Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by Major7: 4:23pm On Mar 11
Zetty177x:


My dear...it's called reality. Y'all voted someone cos of tribe....he's not ready to reverse his stupid, senseless policies until y'all die... people are gonna die ..if u don't eat well, u get sick, and when u get sick and get a major illness, u ain't coming out...I love my Yoruba peeps...but this man right there is not a true Yoruba. He's wicked





You can't tell who voted for him or not,and your arguments sounds tribalistic but let me tell you this;even those that didn't voted for him will die of hunger if they couldn't get help. Go check my posts,obedient I always remain
Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by seunayantokun(m): 5:56pm On Mar 11
Blazetrailer:


Buhari might have mismanaged the economy broadly speaking, the hasty decision to remove the subsidy and devalue the currency without a proper plan is responsible for the worse situation. Leave Buhari out of this for now. The guy who bragged about fixing Nigeria based on building Lagos is now in charge of destroying the country completely. The govt has no choice but to borrow. There is no other option at least for now. Nigeria is going, going.....

I agree with you on the fact that Nigeria is fast heading towards break-up but i don't agree with you that oil subsidy was hastily removed. One, it was sinister politics to know the truth but negatively feed emotions of the populace with untruths. The truth was there was no more financial ability to provide funding for the bogus subsidy claims. That was why Buhari and the national assembly did not make provision for them in the 2023 budget. They all saw it, but left the next administration to face the wrath of Nigerians.

The NNPC had stopped making any remittance to the federal purse - stealing continued there unabated. The CBN was rotting seriously but making all moneys available for Buhari and his cabal to finance their selfishness and terrorists unleashed on the country to implement their fulanisation agenda. The situation was worsened by frivolous printing of naira notes to meet up with monthly allocations to FG, states and local governments amongst other things. Governors and other politicians who saw it couldn't speak up but Governor Obaseki of Edo State said more than enough at the time. The foreign reserve had been run aground with just $2 billion left there. There were attempts to cover up lots of things with borrowings to the extent that many decades into the future of Nigeria had been mortgaged, and now over 80%, we have been told, of Nigeria's revenues goes into financing the country's debt burdens. Have you asked why Dangote refinery which got lots of yet-to-be-questoned free billions in dollar from the Buhari administration cannot readily get crude oil supply from your NNPC Ltd and now trying to import crude to refine? Because NNPC has practically next to nothing to supply local refineries. I have mentioned just a little bits of the realities. To compound the woes, Boko Haram and sophisticatedly armed fulani terrorists have continued to close down farms, kidnapping for ransoms, killing farmers and taking over communities and villages where food and cash crops were grown. So, when Tinubu said subsidy was gone, he couldn't have done any better. Wherewithal could he have continued paying the fraudulent claims which in reality were only means of free money for some rogues? I would say that Tinubu is facing karma because he, Pastor Tunde Bakare, Buhari, etc whipped up sentiments and emotions against Jonathan who had wanted to remove the subsidy long ago when it would have been less painful for Nigerians. However, blaming him for removing it when he did is playing bad politics, any other person as president would have done same thing.

Those still bent on Tinubu bad, Obi saintly and Atiku angelic had better wake up and face the realities of their life. Enough of flying a kite with your life. As it is now, the only solution for all of us is restoring security, to start with, so that we can go back to agriculture. Nigeria must go back to regionalism. State and council policing must be quickly ushered in. Security of lives and property will be the start-off point. Otherwise total abreak-up is more imminent than imagined.
Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by malali: 8:58pm On Mar 11
Pakman:


90% of African leaders up tilll today, have been cowards from the days of slavery.

In this modern era, you need leverage to "stand well well"
Its not just grammar,
You either have a lot of financial power
Or a strong army, Or strong allies
Grammar alone doesn't work
We are still trying to build a leverage since independence.
Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by Blazetrailer: 9:45pm On Mar 11
seunayantokun:


I agree with you on the fact that Nigeria is fast heading towards break-up but i don't agree with you that oil subsidy was hastily removed. One, it was sinister politics to know the truth but negatively feed emotions of the populace with untruths. The truth was there was no more financial ability to provide funding for the bogus subsidy claims. That was why Buhari and the national assembly did not make provision for them in the 2023 budget. They all saw it, but left the next administration to face the wrath of Nigerians.

The NNPC had stopped making any remittance to the federal purse - stealing continued there unabated. The CBN was rotting seriously but making all moneys available for Buhari and his cabal to finance their selfishness and terrorists unleashed on the country to implement their fulanisation agenda. The situation was worsened by frivolous printing of naira notes to meet up with monthly allocations to FG, states and local governments amongst other things. Governors and other politicians who saw it couldn't speak up but Governor Obaseki of Edo State said more than enough at the time. The foreign reserve had been run aground with just $2 billion left there. There were attempts to cover up lots of things with borrowings to the extent that many decades into the future of Nigeria had been mortgaged, and now over 80%, we have been told, of Nigeria's revenues goes into financing the country's debt burdens. Have you asked why Dangote refinery which got lots of yet-to-be-questoned free billions in dollar from the Buhari administration cannot readily get crude oil supply from your NNPC Ltd and now trying to import crude to refine? Because NNPC has practically next to nothing to supply local refineries. I have mentioned just a little bits of the realities. To compound the woes, Boko Haram and sophisticatedly armed fulani terrorists have continued to close down farms, kidnapping for ransoms, killing farmers and taking over communities and villages where food and cash crops were grown. So, when Tinubu said subsidy was gone, he couldn't have done any better. Wherewithal could he have continued paying the fraudulent claims which in reality were only means of free money for some rogues? I would say that Tinubu is facing karma because he, Pastor Tunde Bakare, Buhari, etc whipped up sentiments and emotions against Jonathan who had wanted to remove the subsidy long ago when it would have been less painful for Nigerians. However, blaming him for removing it when he did is playing bad politics, any other person as president would have done same thing.

Those still bent on Tinubu bad, Obi saintly and Atiku angelic had better wake up and face the realities of their life. Enough of flying a kite with your life. As it is now, the only solution for all of us is restoring security, to start with, so that we can go back to agriculture. Nigeria must go back to regionalism. State and council policing must be quickly ushered in. Security of lives and property will be the start-off point. Otherwise total abreak-up is more imminent than imagined.

....but..but..the subsidy is back and much worse, we are now funding it with borrowings. If there was no subsidy, a litre of fuel would be over N100k by now. Clever by half...
Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by Blazetrailer: 9:51pm On Mar 11
seunayantokun:


I agree with you on the fact that Nigeria is fast heading towards break-up but i don't agree with you that oil subsidy was hastily removed. One, it was sinister politics to know the truth but negatively feed emotions of the populace with untruths. The truth was there was no more financial ability to provide funding for the bogus subsidy claims. That was why Buhari and the national assembly did not make provision for them in the 2023 budget. They all saw it, but left the next administration to face the wrath of Nigerians.

The NNPC had stopped making any remittance to the federal purse - stealing continued there unabated. The CBN was rotting seriously but making all moneys available for Buhari and his cabal to finance their selfishness and terrorists unleashed on the country to implement their fulanisation agenda. The situation was worsened by frivolous printing of naira notes to meet up with monthly allocations to FG, states and local governments amongst other things. Governors and other politicians who saw it couldn't speak up but Governor Obaseki of Edo State said more than enough at the time. The foreign reserve had been run aground with just $2 billion left there. There were attempts to cover up lots of things with borrowings to the extent that many decades into the future of Nigeria had been mortgaged, and now over 80%, we have been told, of Nigeria's revenues goes into financing the country's debt burdens. Have you asked why Dangote refinery which got lots of yet-to-be-questoned free billions in dollar from the Buhari administration cannot readily get crude oil supply from your NNPC Ltd and now trying to import crude to refine? Because NNPC has practically next to nothing to supply local refineries. I have mentioned just a little bits of the realities. To compound the woes, Boko Haram and sophisticatedly armed fulani terrorists have continued to close down farms, kidnapping for ransoms, killing farmers and taking over communities and villages where food and cash crops were grown. So, when Tinubu said subsidy was gone, he couldn't have done any better. Wherewithal could he have continued paying the fraudulent claims which in reality were only means of free money for some rogues? I would say that Tinubu is facing karma because he, Pastor Tunde Bakare, Buhari, etc whipped up sentiments and emotions against Jonathan who had wanted to remove the subsidy long ago when it would have been less painful for Nigerians. However, blaming him for removing it when he did is playing bad politics, any other person as president would have done same thing.

Those still bent on Tinubu bad, Obi saintly and Atiku angelic had better wake up and face the realities of their life. Enough of flying a kite with your life. As it is now, the only solution for all of us is restoring security, to start with, so that we can go back to agriculture. Nigeria must go back to regionalism. State and council policing must be quickly ushered in. Security of lives and property will be the start-off point. Otherwise total abreak-up is more imminent than imagined.

....but..but..the subsidy is back and much worse, we are now funding it with borrowings. If there was no subsidy, a litre of fuel would be over N1000 by now. Clever by half... I repeat, the subsidy management could have been better managed. Currently the IMF and World Bank are refusing to loan the country more money stating that the reforms were poorly hatched.....
Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by seunayantokun(m): 10:20pm On Mar 11
Blazetrailer:


....but..but..the subsidy is back and much worse, we are now funding it with borrowings. If there was no subsidy, a litre of fuel would be over N1000 by now. Clever by half... I repeat, the subsidy management could have been better managed. Currently the IMF and World Bank are refusing to loan the country more money stating that the reforms were poorly hatched.....

Subsidy has been stealthily brought back. That's true, because the government has not denied it. However. I personally believe that lots and lots of resistant and problematic ghost claimants have been knocked off. It is also true that the cost of fuel would have been higher if they were not subsidying it. So, you are right. I think they didn't estimate the aftermath would be this bad and are now struggling to save the situation. I believe they don't want to own up until they are able to brake even and ensure they don't pay subsidy again. You should see that as part of the nuances of government policies when you least know the depth of the problem you're confronting.

IMF and World Bank cannot give you more loans because you're only remains of your old self as a country.

All said and done, they are only digging a hole to cover a hole, you are bound to have a hole of the same depth and proportion left behind. The situation isn't sweet at all: Nigeria is just living on a borrowed time. It is far gone. Solution is restructure and move to regionalism; usher in regional security system including state and local council policing; and go back to agriculture and allied businesses. That will be a reasonable starting point.
Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by grandstar(m): 6:47pm On Mar 12
Omohayek, blue3k
This written explicitly to both of you.

You can trust The Economist never to do things in halves. It's been my favorite secular magazine since I was 17.

This EIU report was indepth. It was also worrying. The threat of serious internal conflict which it mentioned were reforms to prove too painful if implemented is something that can't be overlooked.

Nevertheless, there's no alternative to these reforms. As you omohayek said, half measure policies isn't the route to take.

When one considers that petrol subsidies cost 907bn monthly, or 11tr a year, something has to give. That is 40% of the 28.7tr budget!

It might be sound at this juncture for a return of the days of fuel scarcity to bring this amount down. Fuel scarcities were common during Babangida regime till that of OBJ. I am sure without it, OBJ would not have built the $20bn Excess Crude reserves account.

Rather than spend 907bn monthly, this could be slashed by 50%. If there's any scarcity, blame it either on the oil marketers or on empty NNPC depots that would soon be restocked once the oil lade vessels berthed. Supporters of the fuel subsidies aren't the smartest. Their argument is purely emotional. They won't fully comprehend what's going on.

If monetary policy is tightened like increasing interest rates to around 30%, this should give the Naira a huge boost. The currency should settle to around 1,200-1,250 range.

At such a range, this will bring down the Naira cost of petrol, which would reduce the cost of the subsidy.

At this juncture, the petrol price should be increased to 1,200/litre. I feel at this juncture, when the earlier cuts in oil subsidies are factored in, any subsidy should be minimal. It might be best the subsidy is best done away with by deregulation the price.

For electricity, complete deregulation of the price should be done immediately. In exchange, the people should be produced a massive improvement in power supply of At least 20hours daily within 2 years. This target must be met or licenses withdrawn.

If the above reforms are carried out, I believe 2 of the biggest elephants in the room would have been dealt.

The government's silence on concessioning and privatization of government owned commercial entities is worrying. I suspect some of the disposals would be poorly carried due either to cronyism or nepotism.

Their disposals may be put off till a second term.

1 Like

Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by grandstar(m): 6:01pm On Mar 13
Omohayek, blue3k
This is written explicitly to both of you.

You can trust The Economist never to do things in halves. It's been my favorite secular magazine since I was 17.

This EIU report was indepth. It was also worrying. The threat of serious internal conflict which it mentioned were reforms to prove too painful if implemented is something that can't be overlooked.

Nevertheless, there's no alternative to these reforms. As you omohayek said, half measure policies isn't the route to take.

When one considers that petrol subsidies cost 907bn monthly, or 11tr a year, something has to give. That is 40% of the 28.7tr budget!

It might be sound at this juncture for a return of the days of fuel scarcity to bring this amount down. Fuel scarcities were common during Babangida regime till that of OBJ. I am sure without it, OBJ would not have built the $20bn Excess Crude reserves account.

Rather than spend 907bn monthly, this could be slashed by 50%. If there's any scarcity, blame it either on the oil marketers or on empty NNPC depots that would soon be restocked once the oil laden vessels berthed. Supporters of the fuel subsidies aren't the smartest. Their argument is purely emotional. They won't fully comprehend what's going on.

If monetary policy is tightened like increasing interest rates to around 30%, this should give the Naira a huge boost. The currency should settle to around 1,200-1,250 range.

At such a range, this will bring down the Naira cost of petrol, which would reduce the cost of the subsidy.

At this juncture, the petrol price should be increased to 1,200/litre. I feel at this juncture, when the earlier cuts in oil subsidies are factored in, any subsidy should be minimal. It might be best the subsidy is best done away with by the full deregulation the price.

For electricity, complete deregulation of the price should be done immediately. In exchange, the people should be guaranteed a massive improvement in power supply of At least 20hours daily within 2 years. This target must be met or licenses withdrawn.

If the above reforms are carried out, I believe 2 of the biggest elephants in the room would have been dealt.

The government's silence on concessioning and privatization of government owned commercial entities is worrying. I suspect some of the disposals would be poorly carried due either to cronyism or nepotism.

Their disposals may aldo be put off till a second term.

I just Googled the price of a litre of gasoline in Atlanta, Georgia and it was 90cents. I chose America because it taxes refined oils lightly and further chose Atlanta, Georgia has it has low municipal and state taxes on gasoline.

At 90cents a litre, using an exchange rate of $1-1,250, that will equate to N1,125.0. However as the report mentioned, the president is averse to higher interest rates.

At the current $1-1,600 rate, a litre of fuel should cost 1,440.

I'm certain the government can push a price increase of 1,200/litre on the people but anything higher might be resisted.

If a foreign loan is needed, an IMF facility would be best as it comes with low interest rates but Nigerians would blame the institution for any pain they are going through. The loan will actually mitigate the pain.
Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by Artscollection: 7:20pm On Mar 13
2mch:
Not true. But we are not ready for the hardship that comes with doing things the right way.


Ara gba gina hardship there!!!
Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by CodeTemplar: 11:38am On Mar 14
Blazetrailer:


Comprehension issue!! You are the unintelligent one. Now read

1.The govt is not getting forex inflows. All future oil sales for months/years have been locked up in future/derivates, meaning the oil have been sold in advance and money collected by previous administration.

2. The current govt came up with an expansionary budget, designed to spend its way out of economic challenges, hence a very huge budget

3. The subsidy is back, meaning govt have to spend more than it budgeted in order to avoid social strife/disruption

4. No multilateral/bilateral organisation is willing to give Nigeria further loans due the poor ratings and so because they feel that the reforms were half hearted and there might be irrational govt interventions soon based on on-going events.

5. The only option left is to borrow internally through ways and means(same thing previous admin did)

All of the above are facts in the open.

Do you understand now?
So the govt is trying to spend its way out of economic challenges but in another breathe, increasing interest rates to curb circulating money level.

You are talking zig-zag bro.
Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by christistruth01: 12:56pm On Mar 14
Nonsense !


Nigeria has enough hard working people and Natural Resources to save itself!

They are looking for who to colonise with unnecessary debt

God Almighty is on our side
Re: Only Foreign Borrowing Can Save Naira, Clear CBN Debts – EIU by Blazetrailer: 8:08am On Mar 16
CodeTemplar:

So the govt is trying to spend its way out of economic challenges but in another breathe, increasing interest rates to curb circulating money level.

You are talking zig-zag bro.

Lol....

Now, when a Govt issues a deficit budget that needs to be funded with borrowings without a corresponding increase in taxes, that is an expansionary budget, using fiscal tools and not raising taxes to reduce aggregate demand. Read the 2024 budget again and tell me it is contractionary.

That the CBN then issued another contractionary monetary measure months after the budget indicates clearly a disjointed approach to dealing with the economy. It shows you that there was no clear and coordinated thoughts behind the budget and that typical of the current administration (rushing to do things without a clear and visionary analysis of the problem and then reversing itself weeks after), the budget was rushed without careful thinking(current spit-spat among the senators should give you an indicator of this). Contradictory economic policies between fiscal and monetary polies are not rare (e.g Thailand 1997 and Canada 2021) but it is uncommon and shows a sign of an economy heading towards chaos unless reversed immediately. Nigeria is heading the Thailand route. Thailand needed loans from World bank to save itself from bankruptcy, what the sane people are telling you is that Nigeria cannot survive further without foreign loans.

The CBN, just like it's doing on the exchange rate issue is cleaning up the mess of a thoughtless and irrational leadership decision and because they were appointed by the leadership, there are no public spats about it. The govt. is clueless and disjointed.

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