LegendHero:
Lol, Nigeria media and nonsense sensational reporting.

Below is a quick chart I did on the FX reserve data from CBN. You can see how the foreign reserve move average through the years from 2006 to 2024.

Cardoso paid over $6bn in FX backlog, repayed trillion from the way and means, where do they expect him to see the money aside dipping in the foreign reserve and borrowing from external source?

Even the Bloomberg report that they are all copying and pasting clearly mentioned the above in their report. Just that Nigeria media don't use brain in copying.

To all those kids screaming keep your dollar, how many of una even get dollars lol? For those with dollar, keep it so that your family can cry for you when you lose your life fortune.

God bless Nigeria.

You have not said anything with this your graph.
What it shows rather is that our reserves follow the same trajectory with oil price. You can see a downward trend in years of oil price dip and upwards trend in years of oil price rise.
This makes the present dip more confusing because oil price is actually on the rise. I guess this is why there's so much concern being shown by observers.

Kukutenla:

You have not said anything with this your graph.
What it shows rather is that our reserves follow the same trajectory with oil price. You can see a downward trend in years of oil price dip and upwards trend in years of oil price rise.
This makes the present dip more confusing because oil price is actually on the rise. I guess this is why there's so much concern being shown by observers.

How many month of data do you have to accurately predict the average rate of the FX reserve for 2024?

—In January 2nd of this year, the gross FX reserve stood at $33.02b
—in April 15th of this year, the gross FX reserve is $32.2b

Tell me who in their right senses will now be writing all this hogwash news about FX reserve depleting. Depleting by how much considering the amount of backlog and way and means Cardoso had to clear?

@the bolded, you clearly don’t understand data interpretation. 2011 was the year we earned the highest amount of revenue from crude oil sales (Oil price & production output). Why then did the FX reserve dip to $33.5b on average during that year?

Goodvibes007:

It's about $1.5B and not even up to $2B. Mean while:

PBAT administration met $34 billion in our foreign reserve June 2023.

Off the top of my head :-
-This administration paid $500 million Eurobond in July 2023.

-Paid external debt in Q4- : $900 million

-Paid CBN legacy debt of $7 billion

-Paid ways and means debt of $4 billion

That is $12 billion.

I am aware the government also paid $1 billion to the USA government for weapons in November 2023

We don’t know how much credit line and importation has been paid for. We are yet to see what the government paid for external debt in Q 1 2024.

But let’s cry, because we have a $32.5 billion in our reserves. $1.5 billion drop from where this administration met it despite over $12 billion expenditure.

Only you didn't mention the amount he has borrowed since he entered office. That stat is missing!

Racoon:
Just imagine the depletion of the foreign reserves of this nation by these crooks in government. Using it to criminally subsidize fuel and the dollar. Hehehe! I laugh. The lean reserve is being used to sustain the forex. It will still plung, down, depreciate and then worsen some more.

What's foreign reserves use for..kai ignorance is a disease walahi

1$=20naira my foot..

LegendHero:
Lol, Nigeria media and nonsense sensational reporting.

Below is a quick chart I did on the FX reserve data from CBN. You can see how the foreign reserve move average through the years from 2006 to 2024.

Cardoso paid over $6bn in FX backlog, repayed trillion from the way and means, where do they expect him to see the money aside dipping in the foreign reserve and borrowing from external source?

Even the Bloomberg report that they are all copying and pasting clearly mentioned the above in their report. Just that Nigeria media don't use brain in copying.

To all those kids screaming keep your dollar, how many of una even get dollars lol? For those with dollar, keep it so that your family can cry for you when you lose your life fortune.

God bless Nigeria.

From this, it means Emefiele did a great job.

Akwamkpuruamu:
Only fools believe that naira is stabilising without A dip in the foreign reserve. Same thing Emefiele did, that they are crucifying him for.

Government of deception.

What's deception in it .. simple economics u no sabi of what is foreign reserves use for if its not to stabilize ur country's currency as against the dollar or u think dem dey save am their for ur children to spend in future?

Racoon or whatever your name is. Go and list to Mr Cardoso eloquent statement on the Naira and the Reserve. No need for rumors, just facts.

Goodvibes007:

It's about $1.5B and not even up to $2B. Mean while:

PBAT administration met $34 billion in our foreign reserve June 2023.

Off the top of my head :-
-This administration paid $500 million Eurobond in July 2023.

-Paid external debt in Q4- : $900 million

-Paid CBN legacy debt of $7 billion

-Paid ways and means debt of $4 billion

That is $12 billion.

I am aware the government also paid $1 billion to the USA government for weapons in November 2023

We don’t know how much credit line and importation has been paid for. We are yet to see what the government paid for external debt in Q 1 2024.

But let’s cry, because we have a $32.5 billion in our reserves. $1.5 billion drop from where this administration met it despite over $12 billion expenditure.

.

Please are u assuring me that Naira could drop to #900 from your analysis.
I really like the analysis. Its quite educative. I learnt something..

Because I want to purchase $10,000 or $5000.

Please do u advise,, I wait a little bit?
Or make the purchase next week..

Thanks for the analysis.

LegendHero:


How many month of data do you have to accurately predict the average rate of the FX reserve for 2024?

—In January 2nd of this year, the gross FX reserve stood at $33.02b
—in April 15th of this year, the gross FX reserve is $32.2b

Tell me who in their right senses will now be writing all this hogwash news about FX reserve depleting. Depleting by how much considering the amount of backlog and way and means Cardoso had to clear?

@the bolded, you clearly don’t understand data interpretation. 2011 was the year we earned the highest amount of revenue from crude oil sales (Oil price & production output). Why then did the FX reserve dip to $33.5b on average during that year?

Ever heard of the phrase "early bells"? Those of APC persuasion have been rejoicing over the naira rebound regardless of the fact that there's no visible fundamental backing it up but your peeved that an economic watch magazine is making early inquiry into the dynamic of reserves and naira value. I think that's double standard on your part. It's a puerile attempt to shut down a different opinion simply because it does not sit well with you.

And I don't know what you mean by clearing ways and means. What's that? I'm certain it's not from the one from Buhari's era cause it has been securitized.

You don't know how to read data. You can see the slump started after 2008 when there was drop in oil and it continued downwards but stopped in 2011 and started an upwards trajectory after 2011 when oil price rose. Note that your figures for revenue are not correct as I pointed out to you in the earlier trend. But even at that, it's easy to read between the data and see the relationship if you're familiar with trends analysis

Kukutenla:

Ever heard of the phrase "early bells"? Those of APC persuasion have been rejoicing over the naira rebound regardless of the fact that there's no visible fundamental backing it up but your peeved that an economic watch magazine is making early inquiry into the dynamic of reserves and naira value. I think that's double standard on your part. It's a puerile attempt to shut down a different opinion simply because it does not sit well with you.

I am not shutting down different opinion, infact I am just giving another side of the argument. What you don’t seem to understand is that Naira itself is an overvalued currency. It is a product of false speculation and that FX market is riddled with corruption and inefficiency. If something is overvalued, that fundamental backing you talk about can be something as simple as structural change which Cardoso has embarked on which includes, repositioning the BDCs, paying off backlogs, mopping up excess cash, FPI, regaining IMTOs trust, and increased diaspora inflow. Infact Dangote refinery is also a positive on the side.

So if you don’t see all this but instead fixate on increase production, then you might miss the point. If after Naira finds its true level and Cardoso then continue to overstretch, then we can now say something else.

And I don't know what you mean by clearing ways and means. What's that? I'm certain it's not from the one from Buhari's era cause it has been securitized.

I am taking about the 4.8trillion that was used to settle part of the way and means. They used part of the treasury bills and bond. Its like borrowing to repay borrowing.

https://nairametrics.com/2024/04/09/fg-spends-n4-83-trillion-from-bonds-treasury-bills-to-settle-borrowing-from-cbn/?amp=1

You don't know how to read data. You can see the slump started after 2008 when there was drop in oil and it continued downwards but stopped in 2011 and started an upwards trajectory after 2011 when oil price rose. Note that your figures for revenue are not correct as I pointed out to you in the earlier trend. But even at that, it's easy to read between the data and see the relationship if you're familiar with trends analysis

I don’t understand what you are talking about here. I have told you times without number that you must factor both crude production and the price when looking at this. You can’t use one data point because it won’t give the whole picture. Oil could sell for $40 and production is 1.5m barrels averagely, this will be more revenue for us compared to when oil sell for $50 and production average 1m barrels. Calm down and re-check the trend again and come back to correct yourself on this.


Lastly, did you watched Cardoso interview today? The man himself said FX reserve movement is normal and that they have several obligations to fulfill which was why there is a slight difference. He mentioned that they got like $600m yesterday and in few days, the reserve will show the growth. Nothing like defending the naira because he clearly said the amount given to BDC as intervention is very small compared to the official market.

LegendHero:
Lol, Nigeria media and nonsense sensational reporting.

Below is a quick chart I did on the FX reserve data from CBN. You can see how the foreign reserve move average through the years from 2006 to 2024.

Cardoso paid over $6bn in FX backlog, repayed trillion from the way and means, where do they expect him to see the money aside dipping in the foreign reserve and borrowing from external source?

Even the Bloomberg report that they are all copying and pasting clearly mentioned the above in their report. Just that Nigeria media don't use brain in copying.

To all those kids screaming keep your dollar, how many of una even get dollars lol? For those with dollar, keep it so that your family can cry for you when you lose your life fortune.

God bless Nigeria.Hi

. You are even more stupid and ignorant than I assumed

LegendHero:

I am not shutting down different opinion, infact I am just giving another side of the argument. What you don’t seem to understand is that Naira itself is an overvalued currency. It is a product of false speculation and that FX market is riddled with corruption and inefficiency. If something is overvalued, that fundamental backing you talk about can be something as simple as structural change which Cardoso has embarked on which includes, repositioning the BDCs, paying off backlogs, mopping up excess cash, FPI, regaining IMTOs trust, and increased diaspora inflow. Infact Dangote refinery is also a positive on the side.

So if you don’t see all this but instead fixate on increase production, then you might miss the point. If after Naira finds its true level and Cardoso then continue to overstretch, then we can now say something else.


I am taking about the 4.8trillion that was used to settle part of the way and means. They used part of the treasury bills and bond. Its like borrowing to repay borrowing.

https://nairametrics.com/2024/04/09/fg-spends-n4-83-trillion-from-bonds-treasury-bills-to-settle-borrowing-from-cbn/?amp=1


I don’t understand what you are talking about here. I have told you times without number that you must factor both crude production and the price when looking at this. You can’t use one data point because it won’t give the whole picture. Oil could sell for $40 and production is 1.5m barrels averagely, this will be more revenue for us compared to when oil sell for $50 and production average 1m barrels. Calm down and re-check the trend again and come back to correct yourself on this.


Lastly, did you watched Cardoso interview today? The man himself said FX reserve movement is normal and that they have several obligations to fulfill which was why there is a slight difference. He mentioned that they got like $600m yesterday and in few days, the reserve will show the growth. Nothing like defending the naira because he clearly said the amount given to BDC as intervention is very small compared to the official market.

1. I don't usually buy this bullshit of overvalue and undervalue. They are meaningless words not based on any factual scientific analysis. What exactly do you mean by overvalued or undervalued and what are the parameters that determine if a currency is any of such? This vague description entered Nigeria last year and now it is being bandied about as if it is some fact based terminology. Basic economics teaches us that an overvalued item will lose value over time while an undervalued time will gain value due to an increase in demand. Over the past year I have not seen any movement in the naira as an item to conform with that theory. So how do you know when the naira has reached optimum value?

2. You confirmed what I said. The Ways and Means was incurred by this administration. It is another testament to the mismanagement of our fiscal policy by the APC. At least you can also see the anomaly of borrowing to pay back another borrowing and incurring multiple interests on a single loan in effect. Besides, since it was cleared using bonds and TBs, what does that have to do with the foreign reserves? The dip we are discussing is about foreign reserves which is expected to show an uptick in tandem with our international trade value.

3. You are the only one i know of who is using production volume as a factor. Even your trend did not consider that. Like I told you already. it is a factor under the control of govt so it will be a waste of time to delve into it. The point I made and is clear from your data is that the rise in foreign reserves usually coincide with rise in price of crude. It is clear in your graph.

I listened to his interview and he more or less admitted that the reserves were used to defend the naira. You are fixated on BDCs alone when their are other outlets that request for forex directly from CBN such as manufacturers, Banks and even govt. So if Cardoso has come out to explain that naira is being defended with reserves, I don't know why you are now shifting to "it is small" instead of accepting that you were wrong to attack the article in the first place.