Buckle up! Voters head to the polls for a bumper day of local elections Thursday.

It’s a chance for 43 million people in England and Wales to pick their local reps in a host of institutions with proper decision-making powers.

But, with a U.K. general election looming, the local results are also going to be pored over for a sense of just how badly Rishi Sunak’s under-fire Tories might fare later this year.


POLITICO pulled together a handy crib sheet — including the best of the political parties’ spin wars and an hour-by-hour guide to the results — so you can really nerd out through the night.

What’s actually up for grabs — and where are the key fights?
About 2,600 seats on 107 English councils … 11 mayoralties including London … 37 Police and Crime Commissioner posts in England and Wales … 25 London Assembly members … one Blackpool South parliamentary by-election … and zilch in Scotland. The embattled Scottish National Party must be chuffed.

MAYORS: Labour Leader Keir Starmer told party chiefs in March he’s targeting the West Midlands, Tees Valley and new East Midlands mayoralties, as they have clusters of marginal seats and high-profile Tory incumbents in Andy Street and Ben Houchen. Labour aides are still sure they’ll win East Mids, but both sides say West Mids is on a knife-edge. Any Labour person you talk to now insists Tees Valley (73 percent Tory in 2021) will stay blue. Each side accuses the other of expectation management. Labour is also eyeing an upset in the York and North Yorkshire contest. It’s still confident of a win in its North East stronghold, but there are a few jitters about independent candidate Jamie Driscoll.

BLACKPOOL SOUTH BY-ELECTION: Labour aides are also putting the bellows under this fight, triggered by the resignation of scandal-hit Conservative former MP Scott Benton. They say a swing of more than 12 percent would signal a general election majority. Also watching this one closely are a secretive band of Tories who want to oust Sunak before the election. If Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform UK knock the Conservatives into third place, it could spur them into action.

POLICE COMMISSIONERS: Boring? Never! Now first-past-the-post, these races are a wind sock for regions where Labour needs to win big in the general election. Tory strategists claim they could lose up to half of their 29 PCCs. Labour strategists privately say they’re in with a chance of gaining up to 12, while the Liberal Democrats are eyeing three.

COUNCILS: The Conservatives and Labour are each defending nearly 1,000 seats which were last contested in 2021 — the Tories’ best year since 2008 and a low point for Labour. Expert analysis suggests the Conservatives could lose 500 seats while Labour gains 300.


https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-local-elections-2024-watch-results/