Hiya! I'm a final year student in @ unilag and my project is on the impact of VAT on the Nigerian economy. The timeline is from 1986-2010. And obviously I'm supposed to run a regression analysis. The issue is that I don't have figures from that time till last year and also my model. What other models can I use independently to explain the economy asides VAT. No scoldings please. Thanks all

What other models can I
use independently to explain the economy
asides VAT.

Your topic is on the impact of VAT so you'd definitely need data on VAT. Your question doesnt really leave enough room for assistance as you seem to have muddled up a number of things in your question. For example were you planning on using VAT as the independent or dependent variable? Safe to assume you'll be running a multiple regression analysis, so what other variables are you employing for your regression analysis? Data on VAT should be readily available in FIRS offices but if you're considering a remodelling i'lld love to know what you originally had in mind.

Well given the title of the topic VAT of course is the independent variable and I don't know what other variables to include in my model. I originally thought about inflation rate, private sector investment and a host of others but I'm not sure. And yes it is a multiple regression analysis

well, hence VAT is the independent variable and you are measuring its impact on the economy. Then i think other variables of interest may include;

GDP= a measure of economic growth
Tax Rate - a measure of tax revenue
Per capita Income/Income or disposable income- a measure of the ability to pay
Revenue etc

I think which ever model you try to build will definitely have to explain the impact of VAT in the economy cos this is the main issue your research is trying to resolve. Get data on GDP, Tax rate etc and regress against data on VAT.

Visit NOS, Ministry finance, ministry of national planning, CBN offices or website and see if you can get data on any of the variables. Also, at undergraduate level i think it is still possible to run a simple regression involving just two variables, depending on what your supervisor wants. In that case GDP levels between 1986-2010 may suffice. Remember, your analysis is basically to identify whether VAT helps economic growth of Nigeria or hampers it. So, methinks GDP will be a good measure of growth in this regard.

Well, in economics generally, the whole economy is represented by the GDP. That means Gdp is the dependent variable . It is dependent upon vat and other variables u may suggest. My supervisor specified my model as GDP= f(VAT). I'm actually looking for other variables at least four others. Then Vat revenues from 1986 till last year.

Exactly my point. GDP will suffice here as a measure of growth and as dependent variable. So, basically what you are looking for now are other independent variables to include in the model.

The variables you include depends on availability of data and relevance to the research topic. Data on inflation, tax rate, income, output etc are readily available. But data on investments etc may not be handy.

Now, let me list a few independent variables you might want to consider;

1.price level
2. Revenue
3.Output
4. consumer price index (CPI)
5.Producer Price Index (PPI)
6.Income etc

I am worried as to why you decided to choose 1986 knowing fully well that it was the early periods of SAP(structural Adjustment Programme) in the Nigerian economy with its adverse effects on spending, income and growth.

It may be interesting to check what other researchers have done in this area to enable you get started. Check out this study below;
http://www.academicjournals.org/jeif/PDF/pdf%202011/August/Unegbu%20and%20Irefin.pdf

Generally we consider a period of 30 years. mine is even 25. I initially chose 1980 forgetting that Vat started in 1986. It was the first thing my supervisor circled.