PoliticalWitch:


You don't understand because you think I am excusing the government

Read my post again.

Also read this article hereBREAKEVEN NIGERIA

Nigeria needs an oil price of $139 a barrel to balance its budget this
year, Fitch Ratings Ltd said on Thursday.

Fitch, an international rating agency, in an April 5 report, said
Nigeria has the worst situation among 14 major oil exporting nations in the
Middle East, Africa and emerging Europe.

Bloomberg reports that the agency said Kuwait is in the best position
of major oil exporting nations to have a balanced government budget
this year with oil forecast to average $52.50 a barrel.

The report noted that even after cuts in government subsidies and currency devaluations, 11 of them won’t have balanced government budgets this year, including Saudi Arabia.

“Fiscal reforms and exchange rate adjustments are generally supporting
improved fiscal positions compared to 2015, but have not prevented erosion of sovereign creditworthiness,” the rating agency said.

It explained further that only Kuwait, Qatar and the Republic of Congo have estimated break-evens that are below Fitch’s oil price forecast
for this year.

Kuwait at $45 a barrel traditionally has a low break-even because of its high per-capita hydrocarbon production and more recently its “large estimated investment income” from its sovereign wealth fund, Fitch added.

Earlier, Brent crude, a global benchmark, averaged about $55 a barrel for 2017.

The rating agency said it “substantially” raised the fiscal break-even prices for Nigeria, Angola and Gabon from 2015 levels because of
rising government spending.
‎
A breakdown of the Fitch forecast 2017 break-even oil prices per
barrel shows that Nigeria was pegged at $139, Bahrain at $84, Angola
at $82, and Oman at $75.

Others are Saudi Arabia at $74, Russia at $72, Kazakhstan at $71, and
Gabon at $66; as well as Azerbaijan at $66, Iraq at $61, Abu Dhabi,
United Arab Emirates, at $60, Republic of Congo at $52, Qatar at $51 and Kuwait at $45.

Note that oil has been below $120 since 2009....which is why we are borrowing. Even now, for every barrel of oil we sell, we are losing $80 because the oil price is not at the breakeven.

Even having the loot returned cannot meet all our needs, and the corruption is making things worse.

I

I don't think you are making excuses for the govt, I mean the govt has not been and are not logical in the way they handle situations.


The govt is occupied by people driven by self interest. No aspiring govt, whatsoever, already has a laid out platform of how he/she would move his/her domain forward, it is always about how they would exercise their power and how they would loot the nation dry.


Those nations you mentioned are very well above us in Ease of doing business, Corruption index and others. How do you think a developing nations develops if the avenue is not created.

We seem to be following the American model, yet we don't realise that America readily gives fund to its citizen, we don't know that ease of doing business in America is great.


The only thing our govt always come with, as a compensation, is empowerment programme and we pathetically praise them for it.
Growth comes from people living an enterprise to develop their own, how is that possible when the best you can get a month is 30k naira. If that empowerment money is channeld to a single resource that produces and makes income (and a little % is employed) and is properly utilised, in no time branches would be created and more would be employed.

Look at the issue of NYSC, what good does NYSC perform, billions of naira is allocated to that programme yearly. I tell you, give fresh Nigerian graduates 300k (I know a good number would misuse it) and see what they would become in the next 2-4 years.



Now look at education, this apparently shows that the govt has never had focus. We talk about the refinery still using equipment of about 30 years ago, what about the educational sector, how well has it fared? And we all know that, no nations triumphs without education. For years, no local agency could uncover Sex for Grades, it was a foreign agency that did it for us, yet we knew these things existed.


We put money where it is not needed and don't put money where it is needed. That seems to be a black man's problem.



I never said the govt should utilise all returned loot, I said it went and borrowed almost the same amount after claiming to have shared the returned one to the poor, which we all no poor people didn't get any money.


I wouldn't want to go into the fight against insecurity, that's saddening.

Thanks for your insight.

ornicus:



That is why the best option was privatization. Nepa, Nitel, NNPC were/are run like civil service.

Kaduna refinery does not work. Any private business would have shut it down. Kachikwu tried to commercialize nnpc by initiating partnerships and JVs but ultimately he was frustrated.

Our government has tried and failed at running viable businesses. Most of NNPC is not a viable entity. It is crude carrying all of them

Okay. Privitalisation, how well has Nitel fared?
The people that bought Nepa are already complaining they can't handle the workload, that Nigeria should come rebuy it.


NNPC has been in operation because it is our only means of survival, if no one buys fuel again, you will see how useless it would become. At that, they still allowed our refineries go into disuse under their watch.


No one obeys rule of law in this country. I keep saying it, if Buhari obeys rule of law, who am I not to obey the rule of law.


Since, the head has always been punctuated with gross misconduct and loopholes, every man is bound to craft their own loopholes. Thus, we get nothing but half baked endeavours.


We need a reorientation in this country. If we continue like this, we would amount to nothing.

PoliticalWitch:


1. The last refinery in Kaduna was built in 1988. That's 31 years ago. Since then, the number of cars and generators, and other vehicles has gone up . Even at full capacity, we would still have to import fuel massively.

2.And because NNPC isn't earningm much of a profit from fuel due to subsidy, there isn't much money to fix refinereis.

3.Subsidy has not gone. What Buhari did in 2016 was raise prices from N87 TO N145 when cost of importing fuel was N132. Now, the cost of imprting fuel is N200 per liter. See the issue.NNPC is now spending a lot of money mantaining the subsidy...which also privides avenues for corruption.

4.Because of serious price controls, ie subsidy...that's why no one is going to come and build refineries (dangote's refienry is funded heavily by government secured loans. Dangote did contribute $3billion of his cash though). Manking one liter of fuel in Nigeria costs N165 . Anyone building a refneirey would he forced to sell below N140, AND subsidy payments would be N25. No profit made.

5.We take loans because the oil price is low. We need oil at $139 per barrel to stop borrowing. Oil is at $58 right now. Was at $75 in 2015, and $30 in 2016. Nigeria has no choice.

Okay, all these don't make any sense to me. For how long are we going to continue funding the importation of fuel, will it be when Nigerians pay more than half of their monthly income, for those that even have the work. It was under their watch that all these excalated. There is no logic there at all, cause all the funds meant for all these have always been diverted. With all the monies pumped into the fight against insecurity, a recent report shows that NA still use ammunition from Shehu Shagari's era. If all these are being put in place, if everyone obeyed and respected the rule of law, we would be better off.


That's their reason for borrowing, so they say, but last year Bubari claimed to have shared the returned Abacha loot to the poor but went to China the next month to borrow the same amount, what logic is this reasoning.



When anyone is making a plan, they try to eliminate every problem possible, but we blacks are very ignorant.


Look at how they handled the issue with those British duo, now we are in court trying not to pay 9.6b dollar. That's pathetic.

ornicus:


The refineries are a black hole. I am not sure they can ever be truly revitalised. They are running 70s technology. I have heard stories of expats coming and being amazed that some equipment is still somehow operational. (it is not to be celebrated - a 1978 corolla being used today is not a good thing)

Obj is at fault here. The refineries were sold in his tenure but he reversed the sale. Those refineries may never run optimally.

Okay, but are you trying to say that Nigeria doesn't have the capacity to build two or more refineries and maintain them too? Cause Nigerians and maintenance are like the North pole and the South Pole, they can never meet.


We know our problems, we know how to solve them, but we are driven by inertia.

PoliticalWitch:
Well, one solution is to remove fuel subsidies...

Here is the thing. Fuel is being smuggled to neighbouring countries...because

1.In Benin, fuel is N298. In Niger, it is N370, and in Cameroon it is at least N300 per liter.

2.Subsidy works this way. Importers buy fuel at N200 per liter, and sell it to depot at N137. Government pays the difference (N63) between the cost of importation and sale...meaning many importers cannot make a profit.

3.So importers import fuel, smuggle some across the border....and make a cool profit.

4.Also, a lot of fuel marketers make a lot of profit by smuggling fuel across the border too. Buy fuel at N137...sell across the broder at N300 and above....that 's a tidy sum made.

5.Deregulation, while being hard on Nigerians (before you shout at ,me, I am fully aware that removing subsides is going to be harsh, and God knows I wish it was not so), would end this smuggling.

6. We could save over N500billion annually or more from removing subsidy...which could eventually lead to making improvements in trasport, education health, etc.

7.Investors in our oil and gas sector would be attracted, which means more refinereis, and crucially more jobs.

You made valid points but did not talk about the crucial part of it.

Nigeria has 3 refineries, if those refineries were utilised who would talk about importers.


Revatalising the refineries was one reason subsidy was removed in the first place, but it is over 9 years now, nothing to show for it.


Kaduna refinery has not produced a single drop of fuel since last year, salaries are being paid while crude is being taken outside and brought back to Nigeria. Ain't that pathetic.


We all know that the govt knows what to do, but has chosen to either feign ignorance while looting the nation dry or pretend as if they are working while still looting the nation dry. Even borrow more to loot.



The most pathetic thing is that we dont know the implications of All the loans they borrow from China. China is not Santa Claus and has never been. Check out Dept Trap Diplomacy to understand what I mean.

This is pathetic, Nigerians are very pathetic. Blacks everywhere are very pathetic who would blame whites for their woes.


Subsidy has been on for years now, yet we refine our crude away.
Fed is hoping on re-establishing toll gates to garner funds for the repair of roads which we all know would never be used to repair roads.

A recent report shows that about 8trillion naira has been moved out of Nigeria since 1999 only in the power sector, now if half of that money had been properly utilised, we would have solved more than half of our problem.


If fed needs Nigeria to feed herself, there are so many measures a serious people would put in place. The north produces, majorly, all the rice consumed in Nigeria, but lack of access to water limits their production. Now, if nations can lay massive pipes underground to get crude from other nations like the one from SS to Kaduna Refinery, why can't Nigeria channel water from the Niger, Benue or the ocean to the North.

How many farmers are being empowered, I remember when GEJ bought feature phones for farmers as an empowerment programme, that's pathetic.



No serious country hoping to feed itself would resort to manual labour, one reason our rice is expensive, even before the closure. If the rice was already there, they would have used Price as a bait to get people to buy the produce and not compete with the price of imported rice. We need machines that would churn out large produce year in year out.
Ordinarily, our rice should not be more than 6k a bag but even before the closure, it was double that amount cause of poor production practices.


Nigeria has everything they need to survive, but Nigerians are pathetic.

Nigeria consumes everything but Nigeria produces nothing, even the so-called pencil they have started producing, all the materials needed for its production are imported from China, and these are materials we could easily get in Nigeria if we are serious. That's pathetic.



But your leaders are not he problem, the last time I checked, no African nation was a communist nation, you dumb pathetic clowns are the problem. You dumb clowns that only see religion and tribalism.


Funnily enough, neither of the largest religion in Africa started in Africa. Former Christians in France and Britain, the two nations that colonized us, are renouncing their faith day in day out, but we fools, we pathetic bunch seem to be waxing stronger day in day out.

The most religious countries in the world (except Saudi and UAE--these two, to me, are not very religious) are the poorest and the most corrupt and the most insecure nations in the world. Well, corruption leads to poverty and poverty leads to insecurity. That explains the logic.

A food for thought. One thing you should never feel is PATHETIC.

Simplyleo:
Lagos, Oyo, Ondo, Ekiti, kano, Bauchi, kaduna etcetera etcetera, state govt-funded infrastructural development are in progress.

But instead of focusing on the activities of their leaders, some economic migrants will rather have their heads deeply stucked inside Tinubu's arzz. Smh.

Bro, do you really do this to push a point or just to troll.


If it is the former, I would say you are one of the reasons Nigeria has not moved a bit, how do you categorize such thing as infrastructural dev in 2019?


When a point is raised, it is left for you to either agree or oppose such point with valid evidence, what is your defense against people accusing tinubu of the gross misconduct he is involved in?


Hopefully, you are a youth and you allow yourself to be used by people that would be dead in the next 20 years living a wasteland for you and your generation. Obviously, you four years at school, if you even had one, is a complete waste of time if you can see the obvious and decide to speak for it cause of sentiment.

That goes to all of you who only see two parties, tribalism and religion and allow your decisions to be swayed by sentiment your for years at the University is a waste of time, money and resources.