₦airaland Forum

The Impact of MPC Retaining Policy Stance on Capital Market

Hello Investors and Traders,

I just posted The Impact of MPC Retaining Policy Stance on Capital Market. Click on the below link to watch Now.

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Ambrose Omordion

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMqmKgMVq5c

Investdata Daily Sentiment Report as of 25 November 2020

NSEASI buy 99% sell 1% volume index 0.72 MFI 73.29
Access buy � MFI 59.77
Afrprud buy � volume index 1.12 MFI 50.51
Aiico buy 0% volume index 1.73 MFI 79.05
Dangsugar buy � volume index 0.94 MFI 81.06
Eterna buy 0% volume index 1.18 MFI 37.30
Eti buy 92% sell 8% MFI 67.98
Fbnh buy 92% sell 8% MFI 68.77
Fcmb buy 94% sell 6% volume index 0.84 MFI 50.00
Fidelity buy 95% sell 5% volume index 0.77 MFI 63.64
Glaxo buy � volume index 0.91 MFI 63.40
GT buy 50% sell 50% volume index 0.87 MFI 53.18
Honyflour buy � MFI 85.93
Jaiz buy 50% sell 50% MFI 12.96
Japaul buy � MFI 65.46
Lvstk buy 30% sell 70% volume index 0.95 MFI 68.82
Mben buy � volume index 1.01 MFI 83.37
Neimeth buy 0% volume index 1.57 MFI 53.78
Oando buy 71% sell 29% MFI 75.42
Sterling buy � MFI 54.72
Transcorp buy 71% sell 29% volume index 0.96 MFI 67.39
Uacn buy � MFI 67.07
Uba buy � MFI 52.99
Ubn buy � MFI 53.19
Ucap buy 95% sell 5% volume index 1.19 MFI 55.27
Unity buy 0% MFI 84.05
Vitafoam buy � MFI 55.87
Wapco buy � volume index 0.86 MFI 80.57
Wema buy 50% sell 50% volume index 1.32 MFI 51.65
Zenith buy 67% sell 33% volume index 1.28 MFI 47.59

https://investdataltd..com/2020/11/investdata-daily-sentiment-report-as-of_26.html

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Konstant PVC Ltd is a foremost PVC manufacturing company established in Ughelli North, Delta State. We are the major manufacturer of all sizes of PVC Pipes in Delta state, Nigeria.

At Konstant Pvc, we have installed the most innovative PVC production line; our finished products have been adjudged and acknowledged by our customers as among the best PVC pipe in the market. We work with skilled technicians and engineers with technical expertise to ensure we continue to maintain the quality of our pipes.

Our products are standard and attested to meet your building and plumbing needs. I.e. Water Heater, Waste Water, Boreholes, Shallow well, Kitchen Waste Water, etc.

Our production capacity is very high to meet up with our customers’ demands, and we have the provision to address any customized order based on our customer's unique needs.



Contact us @

Konstant PVC Ltd

Laide 08036381734

Mr. Kingsley 08056034846

Mr. Victor 07038524258

ADDRESS: Plot 5, Benson Egbo Street, Off Ekrejobo Road Ughelli North, Delta State.

E-MAIL: konstantpvcltd@gmail.com

WEBSITE: http://www.ovarakonstant.com/konstant%20pvc.html

Konstant PVC Ltd is a foremost PVC manufacturing company established in Ughelli North, Delta State. We are the major manufacturer of all sizes of PVC Pipes in Delta state, Nigeria.

At Konstant Pvc, we have installed the most innovative PVC production line; our finished products have been adjudged and acknowledged by our customers as among the best PVC pipe in the market. We work with skilled technicians and engineers with technical expertise to ensure we continue to maintain the quality of our pipes.

Our products are standard and attested to meet your building and plumbing needs. I.e. Water Heater, Waste Water, Boreholes, Shallow well, Kitchen Waste Water, etc.

Our production capacity is very high to meet up with our customers’ demands, and we have the provision to address any customized order based on our customer's unique needs.

Contact us @
Konstant PVC Ltd
Laide 08036581734
Mr. Kingsley 08056034846
Mr. Victor 07038524258
ADDRESS: Plot 5, Benson Egbo Street, Off Ekrejobo Road Ughelli North, Delta State.
E-MAIL: konstantpvcltd@gmail.com
WEBSITE: http://www.ovarakonstant.com/konstant%20pvc.html

Defeating the superior Roman Army is not enough...

Ambrose Here Again,

"The best of all is not to win every battle by force. The best of all is to make the enemy yield without fighting. So the highest of all military principles is to overcome the enemy by Strategy" - Sun Tzu

In 216 B.C, the Carthaginian general Hannibal encountered 72,000 Romans Army at a place called Cannae in southern Italy. His own army was 20,000. Both armies were equally armed and trained.

However, if you look at the numbers alone, Hannibal should have surrendered or retreated and the Romans expected him to do so. He did not. He did the unexpected and surprised his opponent.

He decided that the only way he could succeed was to not just defeat the superior Roman army opposing him, but to also destroyed them. Hence, he defined this as a clear objective and he was fully committed to accomplishing this objective despite all odds against him.

There are many investors and traders who have set financial goals for themselves and at the slight of a small obstacle they will eventually give up. Well, you are not really to blame because it is simply because of the lack of strategy of being committed to a definite goal, despite all other social and economic challenges.

So, as a trader or Investor, have you master it in all ramifications? Do you attend weekly, monthly, and quarterly seminars?

Like Hannibal, What is the best strategy or tactics to adopt and not get overwhelmed since 2020 will soon be over?

There are 5 separate tactics involve:

1. Thinking through your goals until you can clearly define them to both yourself and those who must help you reach them.

2. Making a commitment to the objectives or goals you have selected.

3. Holding fast to your commitment while promoting your goals and objectives at every opportunity.

4. Obstacles will inevitably appear along the way. Expect them and deal with them.

5. Always adjust your strategy and not your objectives.

With the knowledge you now have at hand, want to start improving yourself to become a better and improved version of yourself so that you can always secure your personal economic power?

So invest in yourself, invest your future, invest your goose that lays the golden egg. Register for the Investors and Traders Summit themed: New Opportunities and New Paths to Profit before it Closes Thursday 3rd December 2020.

Click on the below link

https://workshop.investdataonline.com

Or call 08032055467 08028164085

to complete your registration.

However, bear in mind that your decision today will determine your future result.

To Your Financial Success.
Ambrose Omordion

The Profit Point as at 19112020

Hello Investors and Traders,

I just posted The Profit Point by OGTV as of 19/11/2020.

Share with me what you think about the video and don't forget to click on the subscribe button so that you can be among the first to get the latest update.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GIAOAGu8v5U

Ambrose Omordion

Nigeria Slips Into Second Recession In Four Years, As GDP Contracts By 3.62%


Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), on Saturday morning, published its report confirming that the economy, as expected, slipped into a recession for the second time since 2016, with a Gross Domestic Product growth rate of –3.62% year-on-year in real terms in the third quarter of 2020.

The figure though indicative of a second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth, was however a 2.48% improvement over the -6.1% reported in the previous quarter (2020Q2). The marginal improvement was anticipated, as the economy gradually picked up after several months of lockdown imposed by government to check the spread of the Coronavirus pandemic that continues to ravage the world.

“Cumulative GDP for the first 9 months of 2020 therefore stood at -2.48%,” Dr. Yemi Kale, the nation’s Statistician-General, noted via his Twitter handle.

“The performance of the economy in Q3 2020 reflected residual effects of the restrictions to movement and economic activity implemented across the country in early Q2 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. As these restrictions were lifted, businesses re-opened and international travel and trading activities resumed, some economic activities have returned to positive growth. A total of 18 economic activities recorded positive growth in Q3 2020, compared to 13 activities in Q2 2020,” the report noted.

Aggregate GDP for the period, the NBS added, stood at N39.089tr in nominal terms, 3.39% higher when compared to the corresponding period of 2019 which recorded an aggregate of N37.806tr.

It was, “however, lower relative to growth recorded in the third quarter of 2019 by –9.91% points but higher than the proceeding quarter by 6.19% points,” the report added.

According to a breakdown of the data, perhaps due to the interest shown in the sector by the government and private sector players as shown in the donations arising from COVID-19, human Health & Social Services GDP grew by 2.82%, compared to 1.89% in Q2 2020 & 0.86% in Q3 2019.

Education GDP contracted by -20.74%, as students remained at home due to the pandemic, compared to -24.12% in Q2 2020, compared to the 1.19% growth it recorded in Q3 2019; Administration & Support Services GDP contracted by -1.21% in Q3 2020 compared to -2.39% in Q2 2020 and 3.05% in Q3 2019.

While Information & Communication under Services GDP grew 14.56%, down from 16.52% in Q2 2020, but significantly better than 9.88% in Q3 2019; even as Telecoms real GDP grew by 17.36% compared to 18.1% in Q2 2020 & 11.3% in Q3 2019.

https://investdata.com.ng/nigeria-slips-into-second-recession-in-four-years-as-gdp-contracts-by-3-62/

Profit Taking Ahead, As Weak Banks’ Earnings, Economic Indices Hamper Bull-Run


Market Update for the Week Ended November 20 and Outlook for Nov 23-27

Profit booking dominated trading on Nigeria’s equity market last week after nine successive weeks of uptrend driven by a high level of liquidity, positive sentiments, low yield in the fixed income space, and the better-than-expected corporate earnings in a struggling economy. The slowdown in the market resulted from investors cashing out the recent gains from the unprecedented rally.

There were the seemingly lower-than-expected 2020Q3 score-cards from tier-1 banks, perhaps due to the high hopes, just as analysts are already looking at the expected outcome of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee meeting, the last for this year, and the implications.

Nevertheless, the pullbacks have created room for repositioning ahead of December seasonal trends and New Year corporate action at the peak of the earnings reporting season for the December year-end accounts in the first quarter of 2021.

The macroeconomic indices emanating from the CBN and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in the week under review showed a mixed performance with inflation rate spiking further in October hitting a 14-month high to 14.23%, from 13.71% in September, representing a 52bps uptick YoY. This is a direct impact of government policy, especially the recent hike in the pump price of premium motor spirit (petrol). This has been worsened over time by the heightened insecurity across the country that has grossly affected farmers, resulting food inflation.

Meanwhile, the Purchasing Managers Index rose to 50.2 points in November, up from 49.6pts in the prior month, indicating an expansion in national industrial output after six months of contraction.

At the weekend, the NBS presented the 2020Q3 GDP figure, showing a second quarter-on-quarter contraction of 3.62%, officially confirming what many have predicted about the nation entering into a recession, after the negative Q2 GDP of 6.1%. We must however admit that the contraction came far better than was envisaged, just as it represents an improvement from the previous quarter, as the economy began to open after months of lockdown across the globe to check the spread of the Coronavirus pandemic that has ravaged the several country. It is noteworthy that during the lockdown, that Nigeria could not earn revenue from its mainstay- crude oil, with manufacturing activities at its ebb.

In all of these reports, there are also improvements in economic fundamentals and activities in face of coronavirus effects and others. For the positive move in PMI and GDP to be maintained, Investdata believes that the time has come for government and its economic managers to revisit some of its policies and make adjustments, because it is now obvious that the country is plagued by a food crisis, in the absence of preparation or plan.

We believe the time has come for forward thinking, because the soaring inflation rate is a threat to the entire economy and investment.

Movement Of NSEASI

Trading activities for the week was bearish as the benchmark index closed on a negative note as investors took profit, trading below the shortest (seven-day) moving average at the end of the week. The market had four sessions of losses and a single day gain on a very high traded volume and selling pressure to close the first trading day of the week on a bearish note, losing 0.75%, a trend that was extended to Tuesday when the composite NSE All-Share index lost 1.53% on continued profit booking. This was however halted at the midweek, with the index closing 1.7% up on renewed buying interests that was short-lived on Thursday and Friday, when the index lost 0.50% and 1.47% respectively. This was due to negative sentiments and reactions to the long awaited banking results, bringing the week’s cumulative loss to 2.57%, compred to the previous week’s 12.97% gain.

Consequently, the key performance index close lower at 34,136.68 basis points after opening at the week at 35,037.46bps and touching an intra-week low of 34,064.25bps, from the high of 35,245.62bps, due to high selling pressure witnessed during the period. Market capitalization lost N470.61bn, closing at N17.84tr, from the previous weekend’s N18.31tr, representing a 2.57% value loss.

During the week, 14 companies released their quarterly scorecards, 11 of which were Q3 earnings from Access Bank, Guaranty Trust Bank; Zenith Bank, UBA, FBNH, and Sterling Bank among others; while Q2 numbers came from University Press and ABC Transport.

During the period also, Neimeth Pharmaceuticals presented its unaudited 2020 full-year result, just as the share prices of Cutix and Seplat were adjusted for dividend of N0.125 and N19.29 per share as recommended by their directors. AIICO Insurance announced a bonus share of one new for every five as of November 30, 2020.

The week’s advancers’ table reflected the depressed market during the period, while the negative breadth showed selloffs with decliners outnumbering gainers in the ratio of 55:21, and mixed momentum as the Money Flow Index remained at 100bps, for fifth consecutive week.

NSEASI WEEKLY CHART MOVEMENT

The NSE’s index action pulled back on a high traded volume and selling sentiment, despite the submission of the long awaited Q3 results from banks in the midst of profit booking and the low yields in the fixed income space ahead of Monday’s MPC meeting. This trend may likely be reversed, depending on the outcome of the CBN MPC meeting. For now, the index has broken down the 35,000 psychological line.

The market recovery moves and bullish trend remained intact during the week, with the index still trading above the 50 and 100-Day Moving Average on a high traded volume. The strong support level to watch out is 32,958.96bps, given that the current pullbacks have created a buy opportunity for long term investors.

However, we envisage a mixed trend in the midst of profit-taking, as players’ digest the recently released scorecards from banks vis-à-vis emerging economic data released within the period, given that MACD remains in the bullish zone. The sell volume for the period stood at 94% and buy position of 6%, with total transaction index at 1.95.

Bearish Sectoral Indices

All the sectoral performance indexes were bearish, except for the NSE Insurance that closed 0.51% up, while the NSE Banking led the decliners, after shedding 5.98%, followed by the Oil/Gas that closed 4.38% lower, while the Consumer and Industrial Goods lost 4.29%, and 0.66% respectively.

The general market outlook remains mixed in the short-term, following which investors should take short and medium-term positions, while diversifying their portfolios along long-term trades to protect capital. This, they can do, by considering sectors with high upside potentials on the strength of earnings and policy influence. The recent market rally calls for caution as numbers from some companies and sectors were mixed as should be expected, given the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the EndSARS protest on full-year results, as forecast by the macroeconomic indices.

Activities in volume and value terms were mixed, with investors exchanging 11.40bn shares, up from the previous week 4.51bn units, representing 152.77% increase, while transaction value fell by 38.89% to N35.89bn, from the previous N58.73bn. Volume was driven by transactions in UACN Property, Transcorp, Jaiz Bank, Zenith Bank and FBNH.

The best-performing stocks during the week were BOC Gas and Tripple Gee, which appreciated by 39.88% and 19.57% respectively, closing at N6.77 and N0.55 each on positive sentiment and market forces. On the flip side, Coronation Insurance and Oando lost 21.15% and 19.75% respectively, at N0.41 and N3.21 per share on market forces and profit-taking.

Market Outlook

Given the persisting bull-run, profit-taking is evitable, being a regular behavior of stock markets. Any price correction at this phase of market recovery will support the upside potential, especially with many fundamentally sound stocks remaining underpriced, and the dividend yield of major blue-chips continuing to look attractive, despite the recent weeks’ rally.

Want to be among the successful investors and traders in 2021 send Yes to 08028164085, 08032055467, 08111811223 now.

Ambrose Omordion

CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467
https://investdata.com.ng/profit-taking-as-weak-banks-earnings-economic-indices-hamper-ngse-bull-run/

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akan.u@ovarakonstant.com
Website: http://www.ovarakonstant.com/

OUR COMMITMENT
We are strongly committed to the sustenance of the Flour Milling, Feed Milling, Rice Milling, Cassava Milling, Sugar, and Salt Refining and all Allied Industries with our machines, spares, and services. This we do by maintaining prompt and constant delivery to uphold our cordial relationship and the confidence reposed in us.

OUR PRODUCTS LIST
1. All Microns/ MF Safer Nylon Sieves
2. All Model of Union Special Stitching Machines and Spares
3. All Model of Newlong Stitching Machines and Spares
4. Purnlier Brushes and Sieves
5. Plan Sifter Inlet/Outlet Sleeves
6. Various sizes of Sieve Cleaners i.e. Cofton, Triangle, Bottom, Star
Cleaner, etc.
7. Cyberbond Adhesives Glues and Spray Activators- Dibonder
8. Filter Sleeves
9. Pneumatics Cylinder, Valves Switch, and Repair Kits
T0. Thermal Fogging Machines and Spares
11. Motorized Spraying Machines and Spares
12. Fumigation Chemicals
13. Aluminum Phosphide
14. Milling Felts
15. Sewing Machine, Needles, and Thread
16. Fumigation Services

OVARA KONSTANT BUSINESS LTD
LAGOS ADDRESS: 33 Adele Road, Apapa, Lagos.
TEL: 08057933767, 07038524258, 08023129971
E-MAIL: ovarakonstantconsumables@yahoo.com
akan.u@ovarakonstant.com
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Pressured By Fuel Price Hike, Nigeria’s October Inflation Rate Gallops To 14.23%


Nigeria’s inflation rate for the month of October soared by 14.23%, up by 0.52% year-on-year in the month of October from 13.71% in the prior month, pressured by the hike in the price of premium motor spirit (petrol) by the government.

The rate could have been faster, but for the decision to shelve the equally planned increase in the cost of electricity by as much as 100%.

The increase in the cost of petrol per liter impacted on the cost of transport and services, with the direct consequence for food which is moved from the hinterland to city centers across the country, made worse by the combination of a continued closure of land borders by the Federal Government, and the activities of herders and rustlers that have driven farmers from their farms.

The urban inflation rate increased by 14.81% (year-on-year) in the period under review, from 14.31% recorded in September 2020, while the rural inflation rate increased by 13.68% in October 2020, as against 13.14% in the previous month.

In the period under review, the composite food index stood at 17.38%, compared to 16.66% in September 2020, pushed by increases in prices of bread and cereals, potatoes, yam, and other tubers, meat, fish, fruits, vegetable, alcoholic and food beverages and Oils and Fats.

The ”All items less farm produce” or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 11.14% in October 2020, up by 0.56% when compared with 10.58% recorded in September 2020.

The highest increases recorded in prices of passenger transport by air, Hospital and medical services, passenger transport by road, pharmaceutical products, motor cars, vehicle spare parts, maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment, hairdressing salons and personal grooming establishments, miscellaneous services relating to the dwelling, paramedical services, and shoes and other footwear.”

Across the states, all items inflation was highest within the period under review in Sokoto at 2.91%; followed by Edo, 2.53%; and Akwa Ibom, 2.52%; and slowest in Jigawa, 0.37%; Taraba, 0.60%; and Oyo, 0.69%.

“In analyzing price movements under this section, note that the CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns which differ across states. Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from state to state making interstate comparisons of consumption basket inadvisable and potentially misleading,” the NBS stressed.

Food inflation across the states during the month of October was highest year-on-year in Edo at 21.65%; Zamfara, 20.88%; and Kogi, 20.58%; while Ondo with 14.23% recorded the slowest rise; ahead of Ogun and Lagos with 14.47% and Lagos, 14.57%; respectively.

https://investdata.com.ng/pressured-by-fuel-price-hike-nigerias-october-inflation-rate-gallops-to-14-23/

OPINION: Nigeria’s Unclaimed Dividends Fund, Another AMCON Loading

Once again, the issue of unclaimed dividends has arisen. This time, the government wants to create a “Trust Fund “ to take over the huge unclaimed dividends sitting with Nigerian Company Registrars. The value is currently put at over N150bn and counting.

This is not the first time this is coming up, this was first proposed by the Securities and Exchange Commission under Dr. Suleyman Ndanusa when he was the Director-General. This was vigorously fought at the time because the rightful place for these dividends is to return them to the companies who paid them in the first place.

I remember writing an article at the time making exactly the same point. The money should go back to the companies who paid them as dividends for the benefit of their shareholders. The government did not invest and should not receive any dividends, or be seen as benefiting from this anomaly.

Setting up a Trust Fund is another opportunity for wasteful spending. They will simply create another parastatal that will appoint directors and buy SUVs, and spend money without adding any value.

If you doubt me, take a look at the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON) and what it has become… It now manages sprawling properties all over the country, airlines, and leases Jetties.

It has become a permanent Parastatal with a sunset date that has changed and could change again and again, a shift from the intention when it was set up as a temporary entity to resolve the bad debt problem of banks and thereafter fade away.

AMCON was to purchase bad loans from banks, and relieve them of the stress of becoming debt recovery at the expense of their core business of financial intermediation; recover the loans to repay the initial grant from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) that set it up.

The banks were even made to continually pay annual premiums to help liquidate any shortfalls that may arise.

What we have now is a full-fledged parastatal that employs an army of bureaucrats and spends money endlessly, unlike its counterpart Asset Management Companies in the world which were set up to do the same thing (buy bad bank loans). They have all since closed their doors, once the banks were healthy again- whether in Sweden or the USA.

Nobody remembers, for example, that there was once an Asset Management Company called “Resolution Trust Company“ set up to clean up the Savings and Loans Association’s debt overhang in the USA. They have done their work and closed their doors.

The “Trust Fund” for Unclaimed Dividends now being proposed in Nigeria is going to be another AMCON, with a life everlasting mandate.

The Unclaimed Dividends have owners and the companies which paid them are the best place to put the money into productive activities. It also aligns with the intention of the original investors to put their monies with the companies who will use them and pay them dividends.

When the money reverts to the companies, it will go into their reserves for the benefit of shareholders. This will be additional profits in their general Reserves yet to be declared as dividends in their books and owner-shareholders can make a claim at any time from the company directly when they realize they have unclaimed dividends. It will benefit the companies and their shareholders as it should.

It will allow the companies to invest these funds to grow their businesses for the shareholders as was intended.

Can you imagine the good this will do to the overall stock market?

It will be like fresh recapitalization for some of these companies, strengthen their Balance Sheets while benefiting their investors. There is no doubt that the rightful owner of this money is the company paying the dividends.

The question then becomes: why are quoted companies not bonding together to demand something that clearly belongs to them… something that clearly will benefit their shareholders and if they were denied, can go to court to make their claim.

But, then, this is Nigeria where everything has a different tint to it. Some have claimed that a conspiracy exists amongst those whose interest it is to maintain the status quo, given that the N150bn pool and the interest thereof, is humongous enough to keep everyone happy while looking away.

All that is required to sort this out is for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the protector of investors in the market, to simply ask Registrars to return all balances of unclaimed Dividends to the companies who paid it to them. They will subsequently prepare a report of unclaimed Dividends yearly and then return any such unclaimed Dividends to the companies declaring it at the end of the year the dividend was paid.

Unless this is done, there will always be Dividends that are unclaimed yearly, because of how it started in the first place.

I recall that it all started with the Indigenization Decree of 1972 and 1977 that forced foreign companies operating in Nigeria at the time to divest a portion of their equity holdings to Nigerian citizens.

Some of these foreign owners simply fill in the names of their drivers and cooks as new shareholders who did not even know they owned shares, following which the dividends due to these categories of investors formed the initial stock of Unclaimed Dividends.

The second wave was the privatization of Government enterprises that required subscription to limited shares to each application, which ultimately incentivized some to apply using multiple names and different combinations of their names and those of their immediate and extended family members.

These categories of shares have continued to generate Dividends that will never be claimed.

The suggested solution here, will not only get rid of the current large unclaimed Dividends but will also make any new unclaimed Dividends go back to the rightful place: the companies that paid them in the first place.


By Victor OGIEMWONYI, a retired Investment Banker writes from Lagos.
https://investdata.com.ng/opinion-nigerias-unclaimed-dividends-fund-another-amcon-loading/

Banks’ Q3 Earnings, Inflation Data, MPC Outcome May Decide NGSE Slant This Week


Market Update for the Week Ended November 13 and Outlook for Nov 16-20

The nation’s stock market last week went on fire following a surge in demand for equities after money market rates crashed lower, triggering further inflow of funds into fundamentally sound stocks that pushed the benchmark index higher on a huge traded volume and positive sentiments.

This was helped by the continued crash in Treasury Bills rate to 0.30% at the midweek, despite being oversubscribed, which pushed funds into equities on Thursday making the week a historic one for the NSE All-Share index as it posted its biggest daily gain in over five years. The index also surpassed the set 5% threshold, resulting in a 30-minute halt in trading for the first time since the circuit breaker was introduced in 2016.

The market extended its bull transition for the eighth successive week with more companies hitting new 52-week highs on strong volatility and traded volume that reflected the buying interest among players. The key performance index remained within the overbought region at the end of the period under review, signaling the possibility of pullbacks as profit-taking hit the market on Friday.

Price correction at this point, may however be short-lived, and not last more than four or five days in the new week, due to the level of funds entering the market, and if the expected banking earnings start hitting the market, and beat expectations.

Interpretation of the government’s proposed unclaimed dividend and bank balance trust fund and its implication will further influence the market, going forward, in addition to the expected October inflation data from the National Bureau of Statistics, as well as the final Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) outcome. The low yield in the fixed income market has been made worse by the negative real rate of returns on investment, especially given the inflationary pressure that continues to threaten the investment windows in the face of oscillating oil, mismatch in economic policies, and rising national debt profile.

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Movement Of NSEASI

It was a bullish week, despite Friday’s down market attributable to profit booking after weeks of a bull-run that wiped away the 2019 losses as recovery waxed stronger on increasing market liquidity and buying interest. Between Monday and Thursday, the composite NSEASI closed green, before losing 0.89% on Friday, bringing the week’s cumulative gain to 12.97%, a significant jump from the previous week’s 1.56%.

Consequently, the NSE index opened for the week at 31,016.17 basis points, touching an intra-week high of 35,814.18bps and a low of 30,733.47bps, due to high buying pressure witnessed during the period, before closing at 35,037.46bps. During the period also, market capitalization gained N2.1tr, closing at N18.31tr, from the previous weekend’s N16.21tr, representing 12.97% value appreciation in investors’ portfolios.

During the week, five companies released their quarterly scorecards, of which three were Q3 earnings from Ellah Lake, Mutual Benefits Assurance and BOC Gases; while Q2 numbers came from Learn Africa Plc. Also within the period, FTN Cocoa Processors Plc presented its 2019 full-year results to the market. Just as Airtel Africa’s share price was adjusted for an interim dividend of N5.79 per share as recommended by its directors.

The week’s advancers’ table reflected the bull rampage in the period, just as the positive breadth showed a high demand for stocks, with the number of gainers outpacing decliners in the ratio of 69:12 on a high positive sentiment and strong momentum as Money Flow Index remained at 100bps, for the past four weeks.

NSEASI WEEKLY CHART MOVEMENT

The composite index continues to maintain the V-shape recovery momentum on a high traded volume and positive sentiment, despite the pullbacks as liquidity continued to flow into impressive financials and high dividend-paying equities. This trend is likely to persist if the banking numbers beat market expectations. For now, the index has broken various resistance levels as projected and is set to break out the 36,000bps on renewed buying interests and portfolios repositioning, even as more banking financials are expected to hit the market this new week.

The bullish trend of the index remained intact, trading above the 50 and 100-Day Moving Average on a high traded volume. It is another attraction for institutional investors as it reveals strength in the market, just as the index tests the Fibonacci retracement line of 161.8%, which was a strong resistance level as it heads to 261.8%.

However, we envisage an uptrend in the midst of profit-taking, more scorecards, and economic data hitting the market, given that MACD remains in the bullish zone. The buying volume for the period stood at 85% and the sell a position of 15%, with the total transaction index at 3.17.

BullishSectoral Indices

The performance indexes across the sectors were bullish, led by NSE Industrial goods after gaining 16.97%, followed by Banking that closed 14.37% higher, while the NSE Consumer Goods, Insurance, and Oil/Gas were up by 11.35%, 7.67%, and 5.34% respectively.

The general market outlook in recent times seems positive and mixed in the short-term; following which investors should take short and medium-term positions while diversifying their portfolio along long-term trades to protect capital. This, they can do, by considering sectors with high upside potentials on the strength of earnings and policy influence. The recent market rally calls for caution as numbers from some companies and sectors were mixed as should be expected, given the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the EndSARS protest on full-year results, as revealed by the macroeconomic indices.

The week’s transactions in volume and value terms were up by 117.84% and 159.41% respectively, as investors exchanged 4.51bn shares worth N58.73bn, compared to the previous week’s 2.07bn units valued at N22.64bn. Volume was driven by trades in financial services, Consumer Goods, and Conglomerate sectors, driven by transactions in Zenith Bank, FBNH, Transcorp, Dangote Sugar, and Access Bank.

Oando and Japaul Oil were the best-performing stocks during the week, gaining 48.15% and 43.48% respectively, closing at N4.00 and N0.33 each on positive sentiment and market forces. On the other hand, Ikeja Hotel and Global Spectrum Energy Service lost 9.91% and 9.89% respectively, at N1.00and N4.19 per share on market forces and profit-taking.

Market Outlook

We expected a mixed week, as more banks’ earnings are likely to hit the market, in addition to the ongoing interpretation of numbers released so far, as well as the proposed unclaimed dividend and bank balance trust fund by the government, in the midst of profit-taking, among others.

Meanwhile, given the persisting bull-run, profit-taking is evitable, being a regular behavior of stock markets. Any price correction at this phase of market recovery will support the upside potential, especially with many fundamentally sound stocks remaining underpriced, and the dividend yield of major blue-chips continuing to look attractive, despite the recent weeks’ rally.

Meanwhile, the home study packs on Strategies and How to invest profitably in this Changing Market Dynamics/ Recession, Mastering Earnings Season For Profitable Investing and Trading in any market situation/ cycles, Life Beyond COVID 19 Investment Opportunities In The Stock Market are now available. To obtain your pack send ‘Yes’ or ‘Stock’ to 08028164085, 08032055467, 08111811223 now.

Ambrose Omordion

CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467
https://investdata.com.ng/banks-q3-earnings-inflation-data-mpc-outcome-may-decide-ngse-slant-this-week/

Questions and Answers with Ambrose Omordion 14-11-2020

Hello Investors and Traders,

I just posted The replay of Questions and Answers with Ambrose Omordion that was held on Zoom last week Saturday 14th November.

Please tell me what you think about it in the comment box.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v848RpFXV5g

Ambrose Omordion

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35tU2oL163k

Big Announcement: Don't Miss This Opportunity

The Invest 2021 Investors and Traders summit are here. I really want to take the opportunity seriously because information and activities in the market revealed a lot of factors that will be driving the economy in 2021.

However, there are 2 things you must-do if you really want to get the best out of the market.

1. Take an early position just like what the foreign Investor.
2. Invest in the best Stocks guaranteed to reduce your risk of losing money.

So, the question now is how do you take a position and invest in the right stocks? Find out at Invest 2021 Investors and Traders Summit themed: New Opportunities and New Paths to Profit

However, I want to make the decision easy for you by providing you with the comprehensive details and precisely what makes this year’s own different completely from all previous years.

Before we proceed, I want you to click on the below link to register and get started.

https://workshop.investdataonline.com/

This year InvestData Summit will also be one of the biggest ever organized so far because of the methodology and principle you will be adopting to get the best out of 2021.

However, you cannot do this by mere wishing so, I have done thorough research regarding the 6 experts who are very outstanding and have made a massive impact in the market including managing a portfolio worth billions of naira and each of them will be handling the topics that will transform your thinking and stock market world view. The topics they will be handling include:

1. 2020 Review & 2021 Stock Market Ride: Where to Shop for Profit in Any Market Condition (Alhaji Garba Kurfi MD/CEO APT Securities & Funds Ltd)

2. Volatility: How to use Resistance and Support for Profitable Trading in 2021 and beyond (Mr. Abdul-Rasheed Momoh Head Capital Market Trw Stockbrokers Ltd)

3. 2021 Budget and Oscillating Crude Oil Prices: Implication for the Nigerian Economy and Stock Market (Mr. Abiola Rasaq, CSCS)

4. Changing Investment Climate and Monetary Policy: How to take a position (Mr. Jibril Muhammed Bello, Head Capital Market Newdevco Invest/Securities)

5. Profiting in a Bull Market with Diversified Portfolios in Low-Interest Rates and Yield Environments (Engr. Mike Ekwueme MD, X-Front Trader Ltd

6. Investment Strategies for Assets and Portfolio Realignment in 2021 & Beyond (Mr. Adeboye Teriba, Head, Trading NovaMBL Securities Ltd

7. Dividend Investing For Juicy Returns In Post COVID-19 And Low Yields Regime. (Mr. Ambrose Omordion CRO Investdata Consulting Ltd)

That aside, the society we live in is a total of different households. Each household is independent on a personal level. Ironically, non of households can survive without the other because you can not produce everything all by yourself. Hence, the relationship is interdependent. It is the way nature has designed it. Any attempt to do things on your own leads to oblivion.

Similarly, if you are a serious investor, which you are then, you need to constantly be in communication with your other investors because no investor is an island on its own. That is, you cannot know all in the stock market.

Hence, join the community of investors that are ready to take the bull by the horn in 2021 without hesitation, without saying I will register soon, without procrastinating, without putting a self-imposed limitation on yourself. Like NIKE will say "just do it”.


Happy � 2021 Summit
Ambrose Omordion

P. S. For life is about decision making. Your current position is a result of your past decision. Your future results are a result of the decision you will make today. Hence, Make the right decision Now. Click on the below link to Register NOW...

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NGSE Index Soars, But Continuation May Depend On Market, Economic Dynamics


Market Update for November 11

The bull-run on Nigeria’s equity market continued at the midweek still very volatile, closing higher on a positive breadth and huge traded volume, thereby extending the uptrend for the fourth consecutive session on increasing buying momentum and sentiments. The positive sentiments for healthcare, banking, consumer goods and large cap stocks have helped the market to sustain its ongoing rally.

Liquidity, one of the market’s major fundamental has supported this recovery as revealed by money flow index at 100 points on daily basis, after reading 100 point over the past three weeks. These funds are flowing into dividend paying stocks and fundamentally sound equities with high earnings power that support stock prices. Many of these stocks are making new 52-week highs and at the same time breaking out their 2019 resistance level, a situation that calls for cautious trading and investing, despite the seeming upside potentials.

The classes of stocks driving the bull-run reveal how knowledgeable Nigerian investors and traders are becoming, given that these are companies with value and their sales estimates are looking up to support their prices. Also, the fact that investors are becoming wiser shows the impact of smart money while positioning in selected stocks.

Meanwhile, midweek’s trading started slightly on the downside and was the market was calm until midday, when it rebounded on price appreciation in stocks, a situation that pushed the index to an intra-day high of 33,268.35 basis points where it closed, up from its low of 32,585.04ps.

Market technicals were positive and strong as volume traded was higher, when compared to the previous session in the midst of positive breadth and sentiment, as revealed by Investdata’s Sentiment Report showing 100% ‘buy’ volume. Total transaction volume index stood at 1.88 points, just as the impetus behind the day’s performance remained strong, with Money Flow Index looking up at 100 points, from the previous day’s 94.11points. This is an indication that funds entered the market in general.

Index and Market Caps

At the close of Wednesday’s trading, the composite index gained 621.26bps, closing at 33,268.36bps, representing a 1.9% growth, after opened at 32,647.10bps, just as market capitalization rose by N325bn to a record high of N17.38tr, which also represented a 1.9% value gain.

Attention: If you have not signed up for Investdata buy and sell signal setup, don’t delay. We have just added 20 STOCKS TO WATCH THAT ARE BUILDING NEW BULLISH BASE to our watchlist. These stocks are with double potentials to rally considering their current market prices.

To become a member, send ‘YES’ or ‘STOCKS’ to the phone numbers below. Take advantage of this service to buy right and sell right at the current market recovery ahead of portfolio reshuffling and repositioning as we await an economic reform policy to stimulate and re-track the economy again.

The uptrend was impacted by the increased buying sentiment in stocks like MTNN, BUA Cement, Dangote Sugar, Cadbury, and GSK, GTBank, Zenit Bank among others, which raised Year-To-Date gain to 23.94%, while Market capitalization YTD climbed to N4.45tr, representing a 31.58% above the year’s opening value.

Bullish Sector Indices

All the sectorial performance indexes were bullish, led by the NSE Banking index which gained 4.07%; followed by the NSE Consumer goods, 2.90%; while Oil/Gas, Insurance, and Industrial Goods closed 1.27%, 1.19% and 1.14% higher respectively.

Market breadth was positive as advancers outweighed decliners in the ratio of 51:7, while activity in volume and value terms were up by 48.27% and 17.05% respectively as investors trading 858.16m shares worth of N9.05bn, compared with the previous day’s 578.78 units valued at N7.74bn. Volume was driven by trades in FBNH, Transcorp Zenith Bank, UBA, Access Bank, Fidelity Bank and Guaranty Trust Bank.

Fidson Healthcare and Sterling Bank were the best performing stocks, after gaining10% each, on market trend and forces. On the flip side, ABC Transport and PZ lost 8.82% and 5.38% respectively, closing at N0.31 and N4.40 respectively on market forces and profit booking.

Market Outlook

Profit taking is underway, after the NSE index had broken out the 33,000 mark, a situation that signals a reversal of trends, but the strong and faster recovery may continue, depending on market forces at the midweek’s session. This will depend on the quality of Q3 score-cards presented, especially by the tier-1 banks, even as analyses of numbers released so far have helped reposition investors’ portfolios on the strength of sector and company’s performances.

The NSE’s index action and indicators are looking up in the same direction on a very high traded volume and positive buying sentiments.

Again, the current undervalued state of the market offers investors opportunities to position for the short, medium and long-term, which is why investors should target fundamentally sound, and dividend-paying stocks for possible capital appreciation in the rest of the year.

https://investdata.com.ng/ngse-index-soars-but-continuation-may-depend-on-market-economic-dynamics/

Huge Inflow Pushes NGSE Index To 31.67% YTD, But Correction Imminent


Market Update for November 12

Equity prices on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) gallop on, Thursday, as the bull-momentum waxed even stronger, pushing the All-Share Index up to a new high as it broke out the bourse’s 5% circuit for the first time since 2016 when it was introduced.

The breaker was therefore triggered during the session to accommodate the day’s rally amidst the massive demand for stocks which has the equity market the lone investment window trending up, attractive, while at the same time staying above the 13.71% domestic national inflation rate.

The day’s gain lifted the NSE’s key performance index to a year-to-date growth of 31.67%, despite the resurgence of the deadly Coronavirus outbreak now in its second wave, and lingering economic downturn that has left more people gasping for breath.

The current positive momentum has been enabled by the high inflow of funds, after recent monetary policy actions forced Treasury Bills rate further down to 0.30% at the midweek auction, pushing funds into the equity space. Price correction and pullbacks are imminent, irrespective of the factors driving the rally over the short-term, even as investors globally are keenly watching the international oil markets, while awaiting further details of the vaccine in the works for coronavirus treatment.

These notwithstanding, there is hope that the expected release of Tier-1 bank earnings may sustain these equity prices and trend over another few weeks. But then also, market players should trade cautiously, as more stocks hit new 52-week highs on a higher traded volume.

Thursday’strading opened in the green, before the spike in demand for shares between mid-morning to midday that resulted in the NSE’s triggering of its Circuit Breaker beyond the set threshold of 5%.

In a statement on Thursday, the NSE’s management announced the kick-off of a market-wide circuit breaker on “Thursday, November 12, 2020, at 12:55p.m., when the NSE All-Share Index (NSE ASI) rose beyond the set threshold of 5%, triggering a 30-minute trading halt of all stocks. This was the first time that the circuit breaker had kicked in since its introduction in 2016.

“The Circuit Breaker protocol was triggered by the increase of the NSE ASI from 33,268.36 to 34,959.39. The market reopened at exactly 1:25p.m. with a 10-minute intraday auction session, before resuming continuous trading till the close of the day at 2:30p.m.

“During the halt of trading, no order could be placed until trading resumed. However, existing orders could be withdrawn or cancelled but could not be modified. Trading halts did not affect the clearing, settlement, and depository operations for matched trades, as these functioned as normal. Furthermore, all existing orders keyed in prior to the trading halt were re-activated and were matched upon resumption of trading,” it stressed.

The increased buying interest across all class of stocks pushed the composite index to breakout two psychological levels of 34,000 and 35,000 basis points in one day, touching an intraday high of 35,343.46bps where it closed for the day, from its low of 33,291.27bps on a huge traded volume and strong buying pressure.

Market technicals for the day were positive and strong as volume traded was higher, when compared to the previous session in the midst of positive breadth and sentiment, as revealed by Investdata’s Sentiment Report showing 100% ‘buy’ volume. The total transaction volume index stood at 2.47 points, just as the energy behind the day’s performance was strong, with the Money Flow Index staying at 100 points. This is an indication that funds entered the market in general.

Index and Market Caps

The All Share index, at the end of Thursday’s trading, soared higher by a significant 2,074.10bps, closing at 35,342.466bps, representing a 6.23% growth, after opening at 33,268.36bps. Market capitalization rose by all of N1.08tr to a record high of N18.47tr from an opening value of N17.38tr, which also represented a 6.23% gain in investors’ portfolios.

Attention: If you have not signed up for Investdata buy and sell signal setup, don’t delay. We have just added 20 STOCKS TO WATCH THAT ARE BUILDING NEW BULLISH BASE to our watchlist. These stocks are with double potentials to rally considering their current market prices.

To become a member, send ‘YES’ or ‘STOCKS’ to the phone numbers below. Take advantage of this service to buy right and sell right at the current market recovery ahead of portfolio reshuffling and repositioning as we await an economic reform policy to stimulate and re-track the economy again.

The day’s uptrend was propelled by increased buying sentiments in heavyweight stocks like Dangote Cement, Nestle, Airtel, MTNN, BUA Cement, GTBank, and Zenith Bank, as well as Dangote Sugar, Cadbury, and GSK, among others. These raised Year-To-Date gain to 31.67%, while Market capitalization YTD returns climbed to N1.53tr, representing a 37.81% rise above the year’s opening value.

Bullish Sector Indices

All the sectorial performance indexes were bullish, led by the NSE Industrial Goods index which gained 8.65%; followed by the NSE Banking, 7.94%; while Consumer Goods, Insurance, and Oil/Gas closed 6.12%, 4.78% and 1.97% higher respectively.

Market breadth remained positive as advancers outweighed decliners in the ratio of 68:8, while transactions in volume and value terms jumped by 39.02% and 91.95% respectively as investors exchanged 1.19bn share shares worth N17.45bn, compared to the previous day’s 858.16m units valued at N9.05bn. Volume was driven by trades in Zenith Bank, FBNH, Access Bank, UBA and Fidelity Bank.

Presco and Airtel Africa were the best performing stocks, gaining10% each, closing at N79.75 and N451.20 per share on the back of their impressive earnings and market trend. On the flip side, GSPEC plc and Eterna lost 9.89% and 9.86% respectively, closing at N4.19 and N4.57 each respectively, on market forces and profit booking.

Market Outlook

Profit-taking is underway, as technical indicators revealed overbought on a monthly, weekly and daily chart, while RSI read 96.16 points, a situation that signals a possible reversal of trends, although the strong and faster recovery may continue, depending on market forces at the Friday’s session, and going forward. This will depend on the quality of Q3 score-cards presented, especially by the tier-1 banks, even as analyses of numbers released so far have helped repositioning of investors’ portfolios on the strength of sector and company’s performances.

The NSE’s index action and indicators are looking up in the same direction on a very high traded volume and positive buying sentiments.

Again, the current undervalued state of the market offers investors opportunities to position for the short, medium and long-term, which is why investors should target fundamentally sound, and dividend-paying stocks for possible capital appreciation in the rest of the year.

https://investdata.com.ng/huge-inflow-pushes-ngse-index-to-31-67-ytd-but-correction-imminent/

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Virtual Agrofood & Plastprintpack Nigeria 2020

Agrofood Nigeria 2020 is an international trade show on Agriculture, Food Processing, Bakery & Confectionery Technology, and Food Ingredients. Organized by the German trade show specialists fairtrade and scheduled for 23rd - 26th March 2020 to be held virtually, the event is held in conjunction with plastprintpack Nigeria, Nigeria’s 6th International Plastics, Printing and Packaging trade show.

Event Date
Start Date: November 23, 2020
End Date: November 26, 2020

Event Time
Start Time: 10:10 AM
End Time: 05:10 PM

Attendees can register for free

Event Link
Website: https://www.virtual-africa.net/for-attendees

Virtual Agrofood & Plastprintpack Nigeria 2020

Agrofood Nigeria 2020 is an international trade show on Agriculture, Food Processing, Bakery & Confectionery Technology, and Food Ingredients. Organized by the German trade show specialists fairtrade and scheduled for 23rd - 26th March 2020 to be held virtually, the event is held in conjunction with plastprintpack Nigeria, Nigeria’s 6th International Plastics, Printing and Packaging trade show.

Event Date
Start Date: November 23, 2020
End Date: November 26, 2020

Event Time
Start Time: 10:10 AM
End Time: 05:10 PM

Attendees can register for free

Event Link
Website: https://www.virtual-africa.net/for-attendees

Virtual Agrofood & Plastprintpack Nigeria 2020

Agrofood Nigeria 2020 is an international trade show on Agriculture, Food Processing, Bakery & Confectionery Technology, and Food Ingredients. Organized by the German trade show specialists fairtrade and scheduled for 23rd - 26th March 2020 to be held virtually, the event is held in conjunction with plastprintpack Nigeria, Nigeria’s 6th International Plastics, Printing and Packaging trade show.

Event Date
Start Date: November 23, 2020
End Date: November 26, 2020

Event Time
Start Time: 10:10 AM
End Time: 05:10 PM

Attendees can register for free

Event Link
Website: https://www.virtual-africa.net/for-attendees

Investdata Weekly Sentiment Report for the week ended 8 November 2020

NSEASI buy � volume index 1.46 MFI 100.00
Access buy � volume index 3.11 MFI 77.03
Afrprud buy � volume index 2.32 MFI 73.51
Aiico buy 83% sell 17% MFI 63.89
Bua buy 33% sell 67% volume index 11.60 MFI 39.99
Cap buy � MFI 47.04
Caverton buy 67% sell 33% MFI 80.68
Chams buy 67% sell 33% volume index 1.03 MFI 33.00
Chiplc buy � volume index 3.05 MFI 33.09
Cileasing buy � volume index 2.58 MFI 52.96
Custodian buy 0% volume index 0.86 MFI 53.87
Dangcem buy � MFI 76.14
Dangsugar buy � volume index 7.97 MFI 90.49
Eterna buy � MFI 91.97
Eti buy 91% sell 9% volume index 2.16 MFI 72.54
Fbnh buy � volume index 1.47 MFI 76.63
Fcmb buy � volume index 0.91 MFI 80.76
Fidelity buy 84% sell 16% volume index 2.16 MFI 80.27
Fidson buy 93% sell 7% volume index 0.94 MFI 85.79
Fmn buy 42% sell 58% volume index 2.29 MFI 93.18
Glaxo buy 0% volume index 2.19 MFI 66.54
GT buy � MFI 72.20
Honyflour buy 50% sell 50% volume index 4.03 MFI 65.59
Jaiz buy � volume index 1.22 MFI 46.24
Japaul buy 40% sell 60% volume index 1.11 MFI 42.27
Jberger buy 0% MFI 61.29
Lasaco buy 67% sell 33% volume index 2.23 MFI 61.88
Learn buy � volume index 2.45 MFI 56.98
Linkass buy 0% MFI 92.35
Lvstk buy � volume index 3.72 MFI 79.67
Mansard buy 0% volume index 2.64 MFI 75.06
Mansard buy � MFI 44.41
Mben buy 0% volume index 0.94 MFI 32.96
Nahco buy � volume index 0.98 MFI 54.64
Nascon buy � MFI 89.85
Nem buy 0% MFI 39.91
Npf buy 6% sell 94% volume index 0.97 MFI 55.11
Oando buy 50% sell 50% volume index 1.23 MFI 52.79
Presco buy � volume index 1.06 MFI 80.34
Pz buy � volume index 1.09 MFI 79.02
Red buy � volume index 0.85 MFI 44.39
Royalex buy 50% sell 50% volume index 0.93 MFI 27.90
Stanbic buy 0% volume index 4.37 MFI 85.12
Sterling buy 29% sell 71% volume index 1.77 MFI 70.09
Transcorp buy � volume index 1.59 MFI 58.28
Uacp buy 67% sell 33% MFI 39.31
Uacn buy � MFI 46.57
Uba buy � volume index 1.51 MFI 75.67
Ubn buy 39% sell 61% volume index 5.46 MFI 49.17
Ucap buy 95% sell 5% volume index 1.36 MFI 81.52
Unilever buy � MFI 81.41
Uniondac buy 0% volume index 0.88 MFI 56.37
Unity buy � MFI 68.27
Vitafoam buy � volume index 1.25 MFI 71.12
Wapco buy � volume index 0.85 MFI 81.86
Wapic buy � MFI 26.42
Wema buy 44% sell 56% volume index 1.02 MFI 59.72
Zenith buy 50% sell 50% volume index 1.19 MFI 81.30

https://acandav..com/2020/11/investdata-weekly-sentiment-report-for.html

SEC, Oando Stalemate: How Much Longer Will Investors Wait?


One troubled cup the new management of Nigeria’s Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) led by Lamido Yuguda inherited from his predecessor- Ms. Mary Uduk, who held the office of Director-General of the capital market police in an acting capacity, is the commission’s face-off with the management and board of Oando Plc.


Ms. Uduk, former acting Director-General of SEC, handing over to Lamido Yuguda as DG on
Capital market stakeholders are watching with keen interest how Yuguda, a retired director at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and his team, would resolve a matter already made worse by an intricate web of court cases.

Stakeholders believe only a political solution will save Oando Plc, which has been unable to present its financials, whether audited or not, through the Nigerian Stock Exchange. In the absence of any financials, the share price of Oando Plc has basically stagnated over several months, meaning that it is a no-go area for speculators, just as there has been no dramatic price volatility in the absence of any parameter by which investors determine its health and going-concern status.


A letter by Oando Plc’s external auditors raising “Going Concerns” issues. Source: Company’s audited statement
One such legal tango was that challenging the sacking of Adewale Jubril Tinubu and Omamofe Boyo as Group Chief Executive and Deputy Chief Executive respectively of Oando Plc. The decision to sack both men, the commission said, was in line with its mandate to protect investors, besides averting an imminent collapse of the company while preventing a potential systemic financial loss to the Nigerian banking system that would arise therefrom.

Oando in a statement to the NSE faulted the May 31, 2019 suspension of a validly convened meeting at a short notice, barely 24 hours from when it was billed to begin in Lagos, arguing it “is not in the best interests of the company and its shareholders who have travelled at great expense, from far and wide, to attend the annual meeting of their company.


Mofe Boyo and Adewale Tinubu
The SEC had also ordered the suspension of the executive management led by Jubril Adewale Tinubu. In his place, another petroleum industry champion and former managing director of Mobil Oil Nigeria- Mutiu Olaniyi Adio Sunmonu, was appointed in an acting capacity.


Mutiu Sunmonu
The commission also ordered the resignation of some board members, while barring Tinubu and Boyo, from being directors of public companies for a period of five years. The SEC equally ordered the convening of an Extraordinary General Meeting on or before July 1, 2019, to appoint new directors, as part of measures to address identified violations.

Expectedly, Oando’s management sought the protection of the Federal High Court, Lagos, insisting that the regulator indeed overreached itself, while SEC has to show that investor protection is primarily at the heart of its action.

There are also issues regarding whether due process was followed or not, even as there has been a lot of media commentary about regulatory exuberance, rascality and even seemingly overstepping the limits of its powers, while the commission insists its actions were based on powers derived from relevant portions of the Investment & Securities Act (ISA 2007).

Alleged Infractions

In its letter, following an investigation and forensic audit, the commission alleged nine major infractions against the board and management of Oando, including corporate governance lapses arising from poor board oversight, failure of internal controls, incidental issues arising from the sale of a subsidiary, suspected market abuse, and insider dealings, related party transactions, payment of interim dividends despite liquidity constraints, false disclosure, non-disclosure of beneficial ownership and tax-related issues.

For example, it noted, that in 2013, Oando Plc reported the sale of its subsidiary, Oando Exploration and Production Limited (OEPL), to Green Park Management Limited without the commission’s approval, (in violation of the provisions of the Investment and Securities Act (ISA) 2007) and the consent of the Minister of Petroleum (As required under the Petroleum Act, 1969).

“In 2012, 2013 and 2014 and 2015, certain insiders of Oando PLC sold shares of the company during “close period” despite having knowledge of active closed periods by the company and contrary to the Rules of the NSE. The insiders include Ocean and Oil Investment Limited (OOIL – represented by Jubril Adewale Tinubu and Godwin Omamofe Boyo), Ocean and Oil Development Partners (OODP – represented by Jubril Adewale Tinubu, Godwin Omamofe Boyo, Francesco Cuzzocera), and ECP African Fund II PC (a Company in which Nana Appiah-Korang wards Director).”

Apology For Inconvenience

For now, and until Oando Plc, an amalgam of petroleum products giants trading under independent identities (Unipetrol Nigeria in which it bought a 30% stake from government in year 2000, followed by the August, 2002 acquisition of a 60% stake in Agip Nigeria Plc and the merger of both entities, christening the combined entity Oando Plc in December, 2003), resolves its issues with the commission, the board is unable to present its financials, whether audited or otherwise since first quarter 2019.

While the cases await adjudication, investors remain in the dark since the company is unable to presented its financials whether unaudited quarterlies or audited full-year, to base any form of investment decision.

The company’s board, hinted of this in a July 20, 2020, press statement pasted on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), when blamed the delay in publishing its 2019 full-year financials and 2020Q1 management accounts on a subsisting SEC order.

The statement by Ayotola Jagun, Oando’s Chief Compliance Officer and Company Secretary, recalled that on Monday, June 10, 2019, the commission “notified the public and Oando that, further to the Ex-parte Order of the Federal High Court, Ikoyi, Lagos in Suit No: FHC/L/Cs/910/19 in Mr. Jubril Adewale Tinubu & Anor v Securities & Exchange Commission & Anor, it had suspended the Company’s 2018 Annual General Meeting (AGM) till further notice.

“Following the SEC’s suspension of Oando’s AGM, the Company has been unable to appoint Auditors to commence the Company’s 2019 audit exercise. The mandate given to the Auditors at the 2018 Oando AGM, by the shareholders, was to audit the Company’s FYE 2018 financials and not any other year,” he added.

The suspension of the AGM, Jagun continued, means the directors are unable “to lay before the shareholders for approval, the company’s 2018 Audited Financial Statements, (while the shareholders are unable) to re-appoint the auditors of the Company to hold office for the 2019 financial year.”

Since then also, the half-year result has fallen due, just as companies on the NSE are preparing to present their 2020Q3 reports for which they have announced board meetings and closed periods.

That Notwithstanding

In telephone interviews with Investdata News, shareholder group leaders, and investors lament the continued face-off, which they hope the new SEC management will address, given that, as Boniface Okezie, President of the Progressive Shareholders Association, put it: “when elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers.”

“It is appalling,” he lamented, that “nobody is able to say this is the state of the company and whether it is still a going concern.”

For Adebayo Adeleke, a shareholder rights activist, the lingering faceoff “has the potential to cast a shadow over the regulator’s oversight functions and regulatory compliance by listed entities.”

Adjudicatory timelines of the court cases, he lamented has been further slowed down and even put on hold by the outbreak of the Coronavirus (COViD-19) decease, with the attendant forced holiday, expressing confidence “that Alternative Dispute Resolution that may lead to out-of-court settlement are ongoing.”

Unfortunately, Adeleke further told Investdata News, “the issue has also cast a negative shadow over investors’ appetite for Oando shares. The garb of uncertainty is apparent in its current share price. Its inability to hold AGMs and pass resolutions that will help oil its operations are key issues. Corporate actions also are impossible under the impasse.”

But Alhaji Gbadebo Olatokunbo, a founding member of the Nigerian Shareholders Solidarity Association (NSSA), believes the SEC’s query and sanction only confirm “that things were not right” in Oando.

“Don’t forget that the company isn’t the only in its sector on the NSE. Compare Oando results for many years back with others, you would then start to wonder, or even suspect that things weren’t right with the company.”

He linked the SEC’s intervention to unease in the board that led to one party reporting the other, “if not, we would not have known anything and most of the inside bad dealings must have been on for a very long time before it became a public issue.”

Olatokunbo believes the SEC should be allowed to do its job, and that the courts “should not prevent a regulator from performing her statutory responsibilities. Therefore l do not believe in sentiments in the face of unethical practices, for justice would take place at the end of the day, no matter how long it takes to get the justice.”

Recall that in 2017, some shareholders, led by the South-South Coordinator of the Oando Shareholders Solidarity Group (OSSG), Clement Ebitimi, staged a protest at the 40th AGM of the company in Uyo, Akwa Ibom State to express their discontent with the state of its affairs.

Eroded Value

Oando Plc, once a darling of many investors, successfully raised funds repeated to financing its growth and diversification from petroleum product marketing to an integrated energy giant playing deep in exploration, among others in the value chain.

This was also helped by the enormous trust built by the company, which helped the robust growth in top and bottom-lines as it expanded.

For example, Oando Plc in its audited financials for the year ended December 31, 2005, reported a turnover of N196.96bn, a 91.69% growth compared to the previous year’s N102.75bn. During the same period, Mobil Oil Nigeria, also listed on the NSE, posted N50.91bn, with a net profit of N2.35bn, up by 94.53% from the previous N1.2bn. Investors expectedly reacted positively and Oando’s share price closed at N84.01 per share.


On Friday, October 30, 2020, for example, Oando’s shares closed at N2.75 each, a heavy blow to those who bought the shares during any of the last three capital raising exercises. The share price, according to Investdata Research, however, represented a 22.22% gain in the month of October, even as it represents a slide from N4.95 per share at the end of April 2019, which remains its peak ever since. This was also a significant value erosion for those who, for example, participated in the N70 per share rights issue of February 19, 2010; or even that of December 3, 2014, when investors Oando raised N48.77bn at N22 each via rights to finance its $1.65bn Conoco Philips assets acquisition, among others.

For Adeleke, it should not surprise anyone that the shares of Oando are trading below its book value, as investors trade cautiously “to avoid being locked in under the current uncertainties.”

A Political Solution

For Okezie, only a political solution leading to an out of court settlement, will resolve the matter quickly for the sake of the company and its suffering shareholders, since “no external auditor will go near the books,” lamenting the lack of a visible succession plan in the company. For him, whatever compromise is finally agreed on must ensure that the company is not destroyed.

Put differently, Adeleke expects that “the current changes in the leadership of SEC may be favourable in terms of openness to dialogue and resolution of the issues.”

Indeed, a source close to the commission told our correspondent that a political solution to the quandary is, indeed, being considered by the new management.

But how soon the stalemate is resolved is anyone’s guess, even as shareholders can only pray that the compromise does not take forever. In such uncertain times and with no financials to gauge Oando’s current going concern status, hastening the process by all stakeholders for the good of Nigeria’s economy has become urgent to remove the veil of uncertainty, for the good of the market and investors.

However, the issue remains: How soon will reason prevail? Only time will tell.

This research/investigation/story was supported by the U.S Embassy via the ATUPA Fellowship by Civic Hive.

https://investdata.com.ng/sec-oando-stalemate-how-much-longer-will-investors-wait/

Bull-Trend May Continue On Funds Inflow, Corporate Numbers, Profit Taking

Market Update for the Week Ended November 6 and Outlook for Nov 9-13

Transactions on the Nigerian Stock Exchange last week maintained a bullish transition for the seventh successive week, despite the seeming profit-taking witnessed within the period, which is part of stock market dynamics.

The continued maturity of investment in OMO bill and other fixed-income instruments has supported the wave of funds inflow to the equities, which is the only asset class trending up and wealth creation opportunities for discerning investors and traders. This, and the-better-than-expected corporate earnings have propelled positive sentiments and buying pressure, given that the nation’s stock market remains undervalued and attractive. This is especially true of sectors that are outperforming the general market, and companies with earnings power strong enough to support dividend payout, while players digest the numbers released so far and reshuffle their portfolios. Specifically, attention is focused on banking stocks yet to file their 2020Q3 scorecards.

Looking at the numbers released so far, it seems that corporate performance remain generally resilient, when considered vis-à-vis the lingering economic downturn and challenges, giving investors an insight into how they should position ahead of year-end and the 2021 corporate actions.

In repositioning your portfolio to take advantage of new opportunities in the market, your investment goals and strategies should guide you as per entry and exit points, helping you to avoid being trapped in any awkward position.

We believe that any stock offering a dividend yield above 7.5% with high margin of safety should be the target of investors at this present market situation. Remember, there is need to buy and sell right, while not losing sight of market timing in equity trading or investing. A stock market is never a straight line graph but goes up and down as human life. This is the psychology behind the price pattern and movement, as market players react to news and information, whether good or bad, which is why you must never invest and go to sleep.

Movement Of NSEASI

The benchmark index recorded a mixed trend with two sessions when the market closed south and three of the north, following which it closed the week higher. The index on the first day of the week closed negative, shedding 0.17% on profit-taking from the October rally, which was halted on Tuesday when the composite index recorded 0.83% rebound on the rekindled buying interests in manufacturing stocks. This was sustained at the midweek when the market inched 0.03% up, before slowing down on Thursday due to profit booking that weighed on the index as it sustained a marginal 0.02% loss, before rebounding sharply on Friday when it gained 0.90% on inflows into high cap stocks. Cumulatively, the NSE index gained 1.56%, as against the previous week’s 6.39%, even as the world anxiously watched for the outcome of the U.S elections Presidential election, the rising cases of the Coronavirus infections across the globe already causing a second wave of lockdown in some countries.

Specifically, the All Share Index opened the week at 30,530.69 basis points, touched an intra-week high of 31,016.17bps and low of 30,364.15bps, due to the pullback and profit booking witnessed in the period, before closing at 31,016.17bps. During the period also, market capitalization gained N249bn, closing at N16.21 trillion, from the previous weekend’s N15.96tr, representing 1.59% value gain in investors’ portfolios.

During the week, 28 companies published their quarterly scorecards, with Q3 earnings presented by Presco, Okomu Oil, Dangote Cement, Livestock Feeds, and 11 PLC; while Q2 numbers came from the boards of Honeywell Flour and Northern Nigerian Flour Mills. Also, within the period, the directors of Standard Alliance Insurance recommended a dividend of seven kobo per share to shareholders.

Shares of Law Union and Rock Insurance were during the period delisted voluntary from the exchange, just as Lasaco informed the market of its proposed share reconstruction of one new share for every four held. Also SUNU Assurance notified the exchange of its completion of its share reconstruction.

The week’s advancers’ table reflected the bull rampage in the period, just as the positive breadth showed a high demand for stocks, with the number of gainers outpacing decliners in the ratio of 40:24 on a high buying pressure and strong momentum as Money Flow Index remained at 100bps, for the past three weeks.

NSEASI WEEKLY CHART MOVEMENT


The composite index has maintained the V-shape recovery momentum on a high traded volume and positive sentiment, despite the pullbacks as liquidity continued to flow into impressive financials and high dividend paying equities. This trend is likely to persist if the banking numbers beat market expectations. For now, the index has broken various resistance levels as projected, and is now set to breakout the 32,000bps on renewed buying interests and portfolios repositioning, even as more banking financials are expected to hit the market this new week.

The bullish trend of the index remains intact, trading above the 50 and 100-Day Moving Average on a high traded volume. It is another attraction for institutional investors as it reveals strength in the market, just as the index has crossed the Fibonacci retracement line of 100%, which was a strong resistance level.

However, we envisage an uptrend in the midst of profit-taking and more scorecards hitting the market, given that MACD remains in the bullish zone. The buy volume for the period stood at 100%, with total transaction index at 1.45.

Mixed Sectoral Indices

The performance indexes across the sectors were bullish, except for the NSE Insurance and Oil/Gas that closed lower by 1.32% and 0.77% respectively, while the NSE Industrial index’s led the advancers after gaining 2.87%, followed by the NSE Banking and Consumer goods that were up by 2.17% and 0.57% respectively.

The general market outlook in recent times seems positive and mixed in the short-term; following which investors should take short and medium-term positions while diversifying their portfolio along long-term trades to protect capital. This, they can do, by considering sectors with high upside potentials on the strength of earnings and market value. The rally in consumer goods, insurance and services calls for caution as numbers from these sectors were mixed and what should be expected from such companies, knowing that the covid 19 pandemic and EndSARS will impact their full-year results negatively as revealed by the negative macroeconomic indices.

Activities during the week in volume and value terms were mixed as transacted volume was up by 8.38%, after investors exchanged 2.07bn shares, as against the previous week’s 1.91bn units. Transaction value was slightly down by 4.11% at N 22.64bn, from N23.61bn recorded in the preceding week. Volume was driven by trades in financial services, consumer goods and conglomerates sectors, driven by transactions in Access Bank, FBNH, Zenith Bank, Dangote Sugar and Transcorp.

Livestock Feeds and Transcorp were the best performing stocks for the week, after gaining 30.86% and 19.72% respectively, closing at N1.06 and N0.85 each on improving earnings and positive sentiment on earnings. It was a week when Transcorp Plc acquired AFAM Power, boosting the capacity of its power generation business to slightly below 2,000 mega watts. On the other hand, International Breweries and AXA Mansard Insurance lost 11.8% and 9.09% respectively, at N6.50and N2.00 per share on market forces and profit taking.

Market Outlook

On the expectation of more banking earnings and the ongoing interpretation of the numbers already released, the current trend in the market is expected to continue on the inflow of funds and performance of the companies in the midst of profit-taking as normalcy has returned after the EndSARS protests in the midst rising covid 19 cases, dwindling oil price and high debt profile of the nation.

Meanwhile, given the persisting bull-run, profit-taking is evitable as a regular behavior of stock markets. Any price correction at this phase of market recovery will support the upside potential, especially with many fundamentally sound stocks remaining underpriced, and the dividend yield of major blue-chips continuing to look attractive, despite the recent weeks’ rally.


https://investdata.com.ng/bull-trend-may-continue-on-funds-inflow-corporate-numbers-profit-taking/

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