wyt:

@Analysts
u mean u have written level 1? do u pass?
there are a guy i meet here that just finished lv1 dec diet. he will post here too.
keep connected
waiting for your reaply

Thanks man!

I didn't but i have strong feelings now that i will never fail the exam again by HIS Grace.
It is an exam to write or study for. With CFA your professional life will never remain the same.

'Your' ego, i mean not YOU.

byluk:

From the way u sound i sure say na polythecnic u go.Correct english u no fit write.Why are collecting cv indeed

What does that suppose to mean? Are you saying Poly Grad cannot speak/construct simple sentence?

Abeg, if u knw get reasonable contribution, just keep you ego to yourself.

Goodday

Really appreciate this trend.

Anybody written in PH?

Pls, reply so that we can organize a kind of discussion here too.

Thanks bro for this topic.

I had two years experience as CFA Candidate level I. I did not write this December but am currently preparing for June 2008.

Pls, for those that wrote Dec. kindly reply.

Cheers!!

I am sorry YODIYOKUN, I wanted to reference to DANALYST

I know Nigerians to be brilliant! Infact, i really appreciate this discoveries.

I said it sometime ago on this forum, people were asking for my head, they even asked Seun to banned me from this forum. Thank to almighty, am still alive! But one thing also know Nigerians for is we too dey do Follow-follow without open our hears and eyes! all this facts are there for you to see. What you need is time and commitment.

I raised the issue of SHENANIGHAN against the bank! EVEN before people started commiting their funds but behold i was a liar then.

Well, everybody is entitle to his or her opinion but CAVEAT EMPTOR!

Mr YODIYOKUN!

All the question you raised surprised me! As an auditor and Investor--- How do you monitor your Investment? The audited report of the company was published in Nigerian Dailies for over one week. You are still asking for the validity of the statements.

Well may God Help us in this Country!

Let me give you another Hint---------- THE SOLUDIAN POLICY ON CONSOLIDATION IS NOTHING BUT ARTIFICIAL SUCCESS BUT IN THE REAL TERMS IT IS A FAILURE.

FACTS:-

Synergistic effect of Consolidation should be and not limited to---

1- Idle fund withing the bank's portfolio
2- Drastic reduction in the interest rate (Lending rate)
3- Huge working capital for the banks
4- Successful financial Integration amongst the combined banks------

This is just a hint, SOMEBODY should help me find out and either hail me or Crucify me on this.\

Before consolidation interest rate was within the range of 22%-28% varies from banks and volume of transaction.

And after Consolidation--- Interest rate is still about 20%-22%------ In the real terms CAN YOU CALL THIS A SUCCESS? where free fund in banks should force interest rate to about 8-10%.

Most of the banks suffered working capital where consolidation suppose to bring about huge working capital for banks-------

The major shock we are going to see is in the area of the FINANCIAL INTEGRATION------ I BE AUDITOR OOOOOOOOOOO AND WE DEY C THINGS!

Hey Guy,

You should already know on this forum that i am blunt.

The Policy of DOOM 'Naira Re-Denomination' My analysis are very few. There is nothing good in any form of ARTIFICIAL CREATION. I kicked against Reverse Split did by Access Bank and somebody was asking for my head!

What is the different now? Share negative reverse and Naira Redenomination?

Let me go straight to my arguments----------- 1. Soludo was brilliant--- but now i don't know because this will happen to be second time he is proposing wrong policy. The first was when he planned to liberalized Bureau DE change. The policy did not last one week and was reversed.

Alas! this is the BIG non-sense. It is like the man does not believe in workerability of some economic metrics and wanted to create artificial boost for Naira.

In the normal level playing ground, in the next five years I personally see Naira beyond this artificial strenght He wanted to give to it.

All things being equal-- Starting from the date when Obasanjo Economic Reform Started, i could still remember that Naira is exchanged for Dollar @ about N150 to a Dollar, and now the exchange rate is now rotating between N127 and N129 highest and this is a situation where all our infrastructures are in bad shape.

I want to believe that what can largely boost economy is power and energy, and Yardua wanted to declare state of emergency on the sector, which i believe will definately come to pass, on attaining this, Nigeria economy will experience what we called ECONOMIC EXPLOSION! where by the cost of production will reduced drastically and there will be enabling environment for Semi-finished Goods production which will later boost the export profile of the country and the balance of trade will be favourable. To cut the long story short-- All this economic indices summed together Naira will compete favourably with USD and reduced the conversion rate by over 60% minimum. Then, why did somebody will want to use short-cut and be claiming that as an achievement--------

Well, i have more things to think about now------ YA'ADUA Should shine his eyes.

yodiyokun:

If you have worked within Financial control, treasury or audit of these banks, you will know that a lot of times financial statements are manipulated. I really don't want to expose too much here.
The banks that do a lot of manipulation are managed by unethical guys - you don't want to buy their stock for keeps; buy and sell them fast like hot potato.
The banks that run a tight ship and that have a legacy to protect like GTB, UBA, FBN and Union, Oceanic, FCMB-- they are for keeps.

I don't like Zenith simply because they are yet to prove they can handle succession. Jim Ovia has been on that sit for too long and he has not made plans to groom anyone for that position. Everyone around him is a "figure head". If he goes down today - we are not sure the success of the Bank will continue at the same pace.

FCMB and Oceanic have been through hell and high water in the last 5 years, they have pulled through marvellously and have strong succession planning.
Tony Elumelu is slowing releasing the reins and things are looking good.

Any money I have now is going into WEMA - that stock is very much undervalued and the Bank has a lot of potential (if they eventually wake up from their ti wan ti wan slumber).

Apart from the hard core Financial analysis, we should have feelers in this industry to understand what is going on behind the scenes that can affect the our investments.

I quite agree with you my brother!

My previous analysis is not from heaven, is because i have being priviledge to audit most of this banks and know what is really going on behind the scene.

otokx:

@ANALYST

Your comment are very instructive but pray tell us why is it that all the banks are creating funds by increasing ordinary shares and what will be the effect on future share prices.

Thanx my brother,

I hope you will agree with me that for banks business there is nothing like ECONOMIC SCALE but reverse is the case-- DISECONOMIC OF SCALE. The larger bank grow the higher the cost of OPERATION.

Hope you will recall that shortly after the initial IPO of banks, most of them went for expansion in term of operation, this increases the required working capital for the smooth running of their businesses which was not adequately taking care of by their project appraisals------ This shortfalls nearly collapse some banks--- e.g ZENITH BANK (I know most people will react to this-- but the fact are there for those that has ears & eyes to see). Zenith bank initial IPO was over subscribed and the bank went on rampage to increase branch network, Asset Construction without considering Working Capital and this was the reason for its Second IPO which came less than a year of its first IPO. One should have asked, why the rushing to the market again after splendid performance in its first IPO. But, most Nigerians are after Growth. After this second IPO all the major construction stopped and the bank learnt in Hard way, had it been, investors have access to this information, only God knows what could have happened to the bank.

Your question is well taking care of, they increase SHAREHOLDER fund to increase the Working Capital Ratio!

Pls, find the Financial statement of any that has gone for Second IPO work out the working capital ratio before and after the IPO. The answer is there for you to judge.

Good day!

Easimoni,

Thanx alot, i love people like u.

U know what we are saying here has nothing to do with Bonus or Split, and i did not confirm to you from my analysis that Reverse Split has any effect on the financial statement of the Bank, but rather, i hope you will agree with me that NSE is not an efficient Market where information relating to a stock will have too much effect on the prices of the stock. What most of the NSE participant are after is the increase in the share price without looking back to what actually led to the increase!

My arguments was that the bank management understand the market and play it to reap people off their fund. WHAT THEY ARE SELLING IN OVER PRICED!

Simple arithmetic here is bring back the reverse split into its original price of------- N6.5. apply the potential growth rate after the reverse split price of N13 to N6.5 the value you will get is far less than what they are selling!

Well, don't let me bother you too much with computation. But, the bank is trying to play on investors intelligent-------------- WATCH OUT! And save this discussion for future references, u will then agree with me.

I believe in the doctrine of CAVEAT EMPTOR!

In actual fact, all the response in this forum is quite impressive. But i have little analysis to make and i believe it will go a long way in assisting any prospective investor to make a good decision.

BEWARE OF SHENANIGHAN ACCOUNTING.

Let me remind you that sometimes ago, Access Bank did REVERSE SPLIT where share price were doubled and the No of shares reduced!

The logic behind this is that, the bank had the decision of going to market and as at that time the share price was about N6.5k per unit of share. With this lower price, the bank would not be able to raise required fund at the DESIRED PRICE by the management!

Hence, the decision to embark on REVERSE SPLIT which now bring about ARTIFICIAL increase in the price of stock to N13.00 Most investors were not aware of this and people started rushing the share thinking that the price appreciated for N6.5 to N13. In effect, forces of Demand and Supply push the price to N19 or thereabout.-------------------------------

Reason for all this, is that the share of the company is OVER PRICED,  (i have the proof but could not post it)

Secondly, the Bank does not believe in its FUTURE PROFIT GENERATION. This is evidence from the recent QUALIFIED financial statement of the bank. The auditors Report was QUALIFIED 'EXCEPT FOR'--- The detail is that, the Goodwill according to Law is supposed to be written off over 5yrs, Access Bank management embarked on SHENANIGHAN because the future is not too bright and decided to write off the expenses now as against yearly written off which will have negative impact on the Below the line result posted for those year. (I Have detailed report of the analysis).

While comparing this with the projected profit and loss of the bank for the next five years,-------- Reverse the ONE-TIME charge of Goodwill and spread it against the projected earnings for the next five years, you will come to conclusion that ----------------- May God help investors in this country.

In a nutshell, ACCESS BANK SHARE IS NOT A GOOD BUY!

Goodday all

Sheun, u're great!