₦airaland Forum

Insurgent Political Strategy

To gain the support (or at least the acquiescence) of the people, insurgents may apply a combination of persuasion, subversion and coercion.
• Persuasion will often involve the promotion of insurgent ideology, but it can also include the provision of money, basic social services, control of land, or positions of authority. Insurgents may appeal to the self-interest of constituencies through alliances with political parties, tribal leaders, ethnic or religious groups, warlords, organized crime networks, and local bandits. To do so, they will exploit societal trends and popular grievances or needs, manipulating elements of religious, tribal, ethnic or local identity that resonate with some subset of the target population. These trends do not necessarily have to be linked directly to the ideology of insurgent leaders to be exploited by them in the mobilization of support. Such partnerships may exacerbate localized conflict, perpetuate instability and help mobilize support for the insurgency. Propaganda is a key element of persuasion and is used at the local, national and often international levels to influence perceptions of potential supporters, opinion leaders, and opponents in the favor of the insurgents; promoting the insurgent cause and diminishing the government’s resolve. More specifically, propaganda may be designed to control community action, discredit government action, provoke overreaction by security forces, or exacerbate sectarian tension.
• Subversion is the action used by insurgents to penetrate, manipulate, undermine or disrupt government institutions and organizations. At the same time, insurgents may exploit competing power structures, such as tribal hierarchies, clerical authorities or criminal networks that challenge the authority and reach of control of the central government. In doing so, the insurgents seek to ‘out administer’ the local authorities. Clearly, these techniques will be particularly effective in areas where government services are weak or absent.
• Coercion can either augment or replace persuasion as a means to mobilize support, depending on the ability of government forces to protect the population. Insurgents seek to intimidate government supporters or collaborators, and force community leaders to take sides in the conflict. This often entails the use of violence as follows:
– Insurgents can use violence to intimidate or eliminate those who oppose their aims. In particular, insurgent attacks against government infrastructure and personnel will undermine the government’s morale, confidence and capability, weakening its authority and control over affected areas;
– This effect is magnified by the depiction of such violence in propaganda, portraying the government as weak and the insurgents as strong, and exacerbating local grievances. Propaganda is sometimes the primary aim of insurgent violence;
– Targeting members of different ethnic or sectarian groups may engender a sense of social identity, solidarity and alienation from the government;
– By creating violent instability, insurgents may be able to encourage people to turn to them in preference to the government to ‘restore’ public order;
– If insurgents can provoke excessive government action against a population, then death, injury, mistreatment, or dishonor can become a powerful motivator for retributive action against the government.

Trans-National Dynamics

Most insurgencies need a physical safe haven, and may find it in neighboring countries. Moreover, contemporary insurgencies are often supported or driven by transnational networks with access to satellite communications, the Internet, global media and transnational banking systems. International support may be leveraged from diaspora or émigré communities, international institutions, friendly foreign governments and populations, or the international media. If other countries give support to the affected government, the insurgents may directly target public opinion there, pressuring them to cease their assistance. Such pressure may be exerted from the affected territory through the kidnap, torture and murder of intervening civilian nationals, often broadcast internationally to reach the population of origin. Alternatively, more direct effect may be achieved through terrorist attacks launched within the intervening country itself (perhaps facilitated by immigrant or other sympathetic community groups). Policy makers must therefore take into account regional and global dynamics as well as the internal situation of the nation most directly affected.

Funding

To fund their activities, insurgents may foster an illicit economy, sometimes of international scope, eluding government monitoring, taxation and interdiction. Such illicit financial activities diminish government revenues, increase corruption among local officials, and weaken the control and legitimacy of the government. Criminal activities may include theft, extortion, trafficking (of narcotics, arms and people), money laundering, piracy, document fraud, bribery, kidnapping and black market activity. These funding streams will often drive insurgents into alliances of convenience with organized crime. In some cases, long-standing insurgencies morph into gangs or organized criminal networks that are motivated by profit and economic self-interest, rather than ideology. Funding may also be obtained through donations from sympathetic foreign governments, diaspora groups and individuals. Such funding streams may be simple and direct or complex and masked dependent on the efforts being taken internationally to interdict them. In extreme cases, funding may be channeled through a third party organization purportedly conducting charitable work.

Building Networks

Insurgents require supporters, recruits, safe havens, money, supplies, weapons and intelligence on government actions. A robust insurgency can be waged with the support of just a small percentage of a given population. From the remaining majority, insurgents require only compliance (acquiescence or inaction). The position of an active individual within an insurgent network will be determined by the combination of a number of factors including:
• The level of respect and trust they hold within a community;
• Their reputation established through previous insurgent actions;
• Their degree of motivation, ideological or otherwise;
• Their perceived loyalty to other network members;
• Their level of expertise in a particular field;
• Their access to resources, human or otherwise;
• The degree of risk they are prepared to accept.
Insurgent networks provide life support for the movements they support, but they also entail vulnerability. Command and support networks establish lines between isolated cells whose operational security may otherwise be impeccable. Some key functions may be deliverable only by individuals with dubious loyalty, for example criminal smugglers enabling logistics supply or personnel movement. Modern information infrastructure including mobile phones and the internet provide means of rapid communications and networking between insurgents, but are also open to exploitation. The most secure insurgent networks involve small numbers of active personnel who are trustworthy and employ tight operational security. However, the insurgent dilemma is that in order to promote the insurgency and exploit success, these small networks have to expand, exposing themselves to action by government security forces. Effective interdiction can lead to a cycle of expansion and contraction of insurgent networks as security and trust is repeatedly built up and then lost.

During the Twentieth Century, insurgents were often motivated by Marxism, religion or nationalism (or a combination of these). Insurgencies were often led by university educated ‘intellectual elites’ whose personal circumstances were sometimes far removed from those of the rank-and-file insurgents that they inspired. Modern insurgencies are often more complex matrices of irregular actors with widely differing goals. At least some of the principal actors will be motivated by a form of ideology (or at least will claim to be), but that ideology will not necessarily extend across the whole insurgent network. Modern insurgencies are typified by the points below:
• The charisma of insurgent leaders can sometimes be more important than ideology in convincing others to join their movement
Some insurgent actors will be more interested in financial reward than ideology. This applies from the unemployed youth getting paid to fight to the criminal gang leader exploiting a state of lawlessness;
• The basic wants, needs and grievances of the population may have little to do with the intellectual ideology of insurgent leaders, but may still be exploited to generate support;
• Even those fighters, sympathizers, and supporters who justify their actions with the rhetoric and symbols provided by insurgent propagandists may not be fully conversant with the ideology;
• Hatred that emerges during armed conflict, through atrocities and dispossession, often overshadows the initial motivators that drove individuals and community groups to join the insurgency or support the government;
• Players in pre-existing local conflict may draw on the insurgents (or the government) as an external ally to help them;
• In tribal societies (as found in parts of South and Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa) the support of one tribe or faction for the government may often predispose tribal rivals to support the insurgents, and vice versa.

Definition

Insurgency is the organized use of subversion and violence to seize, nullify or challenge political control of a region. As such, it is primarily a political struggle, in which both sides use armed force to create space for their political, economic and influence activities to be effective. Insurgency is not always conducted by a single group with a centralized, military-style command structure, but may involve a complex matrix of different actors with various aims, loosely connected in dynamic and non-hierarchical networks. To be successful, insurgencies require charismatic leadership, supporters, recruits, supplies, safe havens and funding (often from illicit activities). They only need the active support of a few enabling individuals, but the passive acquiescence of a large proportion of the contested population will give a higher probability of success. This is best achieved when the political cause of the insurgency has strong appeal, manipulating religious, tribal or local identity to exploit common societal grievances or needs. Insurgents seek to gain control of populations through a combination of persuasion, subversion and coercion while using guerrilla tactics to offset the strengths of government security forces. Their intent is usually to protract the struggle, exhaust the government and win sufficient popular support to force capitulation or political accommodation. Consequently, insurgencies evolve through a series of stages, though the progression and outcome will be different in almost every case.

A revolution is an insurgency.

An insurgency is an uprising of the civilian masses against the existing political and governing order.

An insurgency can either turn violent or remain docile and civil in manner.

Majority of peaceful insurgent movements have never upturned the status quo but may in some little way lead to concessions from the existing order that are far less than the initial demands. This scenario depends on the depth of democratic culture in the society and the level of civility of the ruling class. In most cases revolutions or civilian insurgencies are forced to violent tactics leading to even more brutal clampdown from the govt.

It is from the last sentence that civil insurgency turns to armed insurgency.

With the antecedents of the current governing order in Nigeria, you will agree that no form of protest be it peaceful or violent will be tolerated.

This then leads to Real Revolution requiring armed insurgency to force change on the govt that refuses peaceful demands.

In this thread I will be schooling the lame assed cowards of the rightfully orange themed Sowore led revolution how and what it takes to force a despot out of office.

izombie:
what you wrote makes sense but i still maintain that given the choices we had in the february elections, there is no way atiku will be as bad as buhari.

Nobody and nothing can be worse than Buhari and APC.

That combination was crafted in hell by the devil

Abdul05:
When we labelled some people as not being political,we meant that the people did not understand the principles and practices of Nigerian politics.we did not imply that they did not understand "you chop,l chop".but to revolutionize Nigeria by controlling the nation.

You understanding of Politics shows why you see nothing wrong with the disastrous leadership in Aso Rock


If chop-I-chop is now your slogan, what happened to your sleazy anti kwarption slogan?

I only blame the fools that still support your ruga nonsense

Taken straight out of Saul Alinsky's 101 Rules for Radicals , accuse others of what you are guilty of.

We warned you about Buhari.

We presented his historical and then current mindset which are no different from what he has been displaying as President.

But you called us bigots, Tanniods, corruption enablers.

We presented historical fact after fact to warn and plead to you not to continue on the path of Sai Baba.

But what did you do? You called us tribalistic because you guys already had bought into the primordial ethnic religious propaganda. In what can best be described as total hypocrisy, you deployed tribalism in your region to reject Jonathan but accused us who warned against Buhari to be tribalists. Talk about Saul Alinsky's 101 Rules for Radicals :accuse others of what you are guilty of.

CAN warned you but you dismissed them as islamaphobes feeding fat on Jonathan's largesse.

There is no warning we gave then and prediction we made that hasn't come to pass.


It is sad to say that we have been vindicated. Who gains from a preventable disaster? Our warnings and predictions does not make us any smarter but highlights your stupidity in not accepting facts for what they are - facts!

Looking back now, there is nothing we could have said or done to convince you because you were in a state of ecstatic delirium of hate inspired delusion.

Even during his first term up to 2019 reelection, we were still warning and pleading with you for the sake of our country but you termed us wailers and sore losers.

Then the election campaigns and election proper came and we saw how you deployed ethnic sentiments against those of us not supporting Buhari and used Atiku's choice of a seasoned technocrat (Obi) as a reason why Yorubas must stand with Buhari over Osinbajo going further that a vote for Buhari in 2019 will guarantee a Yoruba president come 2023.

All through from 2014, you have been the narrow minded selfish ones who voted Buhari to spite the better south.

Your support for Buhari was selfish, tribalistic and rooted in jealousy.

You do not care about the state of the country under Buhari, you are just now waking up to find that your alliance has not benefited your region as much as you anticipated and that the jihad on the better south has not left us in ruins but standing stronger and better off than YOU and the rest of the country.

God in heaven is protecting and providing for his children, while you satanic god in Aso Rock has turned on you.

Your gnashing of teeth and wailing under your saviour Buhari is akin to those who find themselves in hell with the devil.

You are beyond redemption.

We warned you about Buhari.

We presented his historical and then current mindset which are no different from what he has been displaying as President.

But you called us bigots, Tanniods, corruption enablers.

We presented historical fact after fact to warn and plead to you not to continue on the path of Sai Baba.

But what did you do? You called us tribalistic because you guys already had bought into the primordial ethnic religious propaganda. In what can best be described as total hypocrisy, you deployed tribalism in your region to reject Jonathan but accused us who warned against Buhari to be tribalists. Talk about Saul Alinsky's 101 Rules for Radicals :accuse others of what you are guilty of.

CAN warned you but you dismissed them as islamaphobes feeding fat on Jonathan's largesse.

There is no warning we gave then and prediction we made that hasn't come to pass.


It is sad to say that we have been vindicated. Who gains from a preventable disaster? Our warnings and predictions does not make us any smarter but highlights your stupidity in not accepting facts for what they are - facts!

Looking back now, there is nothing we could have said or done to convince you because you were in a state of ecstatic delirium of hate inspired delusion.

Even during his first term up to 2019 reelection, we were still warning and pleading with you for the sake of our country but you termed us wailers and sore losers.

Then the election campaigns and election proper came and we saw how you deployed ethnic sentiments against those of us not supporting Buhari and used Atiku's choice of a seasoned technocrat (Obi) as a reason why Yorubas must stand with Buhari over Osinbajo going further that a vote for Buhari in 2019 will guarantee a Yoruba president come 2023.

All through from 2014, you have been the narrow minded selfish ones who voted Buhari to spite the better south.

Your support for Buhari was selfish, tribalistic and rooted in jealousy.

You do not care about the state of the country under Buhari, you are just now waking up to find that your alliance has not benefited your region as much as you anticipated and that the jihad on the better south has not left us in ruins but standing stronger and better off than YOU and the rest of the country.

God in heaven is protecting and providing for his children, while you satanic god in Aso Rock has turned on you.

Your gnashing of teeth and wailing under your saviour Buhari is akin to those who find themselves in hell with the devil.

You are beyond redemption.

Jayfolarin, we warned you about Buhari.

We presented his historical and then current mindset which are no different from what he has been displaying as President.

But you called us bigots, Tanniods, corruption enablers.

We presented historical fact after fact to warn and plead to you not to continue on the path of Sai Baba.

But what did you do? You called us tribalistic because you guys already had bought into the primordial ethnic religious propaganda. In what can best be described as total hypocrisy, you deployed tribalism in your region to reject Jonathan but accused as who warned against Buhari as tribalist. Talk about Saul Alinsky's 101 Rules for Radicals :accuse others of what you are guilty of

CAN warned you but you dismissed them as islamaphobes feeding fat on Jonathan's largesse.

There is no warning we gave then and prediction we made that hasn't come to pass.

Even during his first term up to 2019 reelection we were still warning and pleading with you for the sake of our country but you termed us wailers and sore losers.

Then the election campaigns and election proper came and we saw how you deployed ethnic sentiments against those of us not supporting Buhari and used Atiku's choice of a seasoned technocrat (Obi) as a reason why Yorubas must stand with Buhari over Osinbajo going further that a vote for Buhari in 2019 will guarantee a Yoruba president come 2023.

All through from 2014, you have been the narrow minded selfish ones who voted Buhari to spite the better south.

Your support for Buhari was selfish, tribalistic and rooted in jealousy.

You do not care about the state of the country under Buhari, you are just now waking up to find that your alliance has not benefited your region as much as you anticipated and that the jihad on the better south has not left us in ruins but standing stronger and better off than YOU and the rest of the country.

God in heaven is protecting and providing for his children, while you satanic god in Aso Rock has turned on you.

Your gnashing of teeth and wailing under your saviour Buhari is akin to those who find themselves in hell with the devil.

You are beyond redemption.

Fatherofdragons:
This thread is almost five years old and everything the op said about the Southwest is coming to pass.

They were the fat frog sitting in boiling water looking so oblivious to things happening around them.

Let me give some examples

When there was crisis in benue because of fulani herdsmen, they were fat the frog

When there was herdsmen menace in plateau state, they were fat the frog

When buhari was killing shiite protesters in their numbers, they were fat the frog

When Ipob members were been killed for protesting, they were fat the frog

When farmers were killed in Enugu State, they were fat the frog

When farmers in their region was mowed down by fulani herdsmen, they were still the fat frog

When the daughter of the leader of that yorober group was killed by fulani herdsmen, they the fat frog, got aware of the boiling water around them

When more people were complaining of fulani herdsmen infiltration into the forests in the south west and also the kidnappings, they the fat frog, jump out of the boiling water.

Now they are going about screaming REVOLUTION NOW because they have felt the heat from the boiling water.

But people are sceptical about the movement because the fat frog once mocked, ridiculed and called on the authorities to squash their protests with live bullets while sitting comfortably in the boiling water.

This here is a five star post.


Here's your medal for being promoted to A Field Marshal

Modphase:
Said it before n am saying it again too many foolish Ipob Igbo on NL. Fools don’t need response, you just need to be be told without mincing word that your are a fool indeed.

You have been rejected - vehemently.

I love how Wike came out to ban the oyoruba led stupid lame ass revolution in Rivers.

That is to tell you that no alliance with traitors.

Go back to your afonja alliance with Sokoto.

Even his title should tell you he is a typical confused Yoruba man.

First he never regrets. Next he is regretting.

He left the door open, thinking Buhari cares of his plight and online SM rants.

freeze001:
Mr OP, the bold part in your first paragraph and the last paragraph do not go together. This rubbish is what y'all do when you finally get your heads out of yours and buhari's arses long enough to realise that there is actually better air to be had and breathed than that crap you had fouled your up your senses with since 2014 or even earlier. Until you are able to admit that Jonathan was actually better than this doofus you and your kind supported and rigged into office, you are not yet fully apologetic or regretful. Not that your apology or regret makes any difference because now that the devil has been given free pass and access to the seat of power, he will never let go, it is just so you know!

freeze001:
Unfortunately, as the oaf claims, he is not resident in Nigeria so does not feel the heat directly. It is only tribal sentiments due to Sowore's arrest and detention that shook him up to this contrived repentance and apology. In fact, you took the words right off my 'fingers' with your post cos my post right after yours clearly mirrors your position.

Actually, it wasn't Sowore's arrest per se but the failed revolution protest that never got any attention outside Yoruba land.

This was when he knew that their usual chameleon tactics is now dead and buried and any future alliance with the Better South over rejecting Rugas is dead and buried.

He knows his Obas and governors have all sold them to Ruga.

Just watch as this same Afonja will soon begin to advocate for same Ruga in the Better South and Christian middle belt.

These people are like that Harlot in Solomon's tales who would rather have the baby cut in half.

jayfolarin:
A great tribalist huh? Is that for the lack of a better adjective or you are just plain limited in knowledge?

You can never be repentant of your zombie ways if you don't accept the fact that you were gullible to fall for a bad product like Buhari over bogus claims of his integrity, corruption claims and dictatorial tendencies.

Also, your stance on GEJ still invalidate your repentance from Zombiesm.

Jonathan's failings were not due to his lack of capacity or claims of overseeing a corrupt govt but rather the current centrist system we operate which is designed by dictators like Buhari.

This is why GEJ constituted the National Confab to restructure the country.

GEJ wanted to devolve powers from the presidency while your APC and Buhari want a more centrist govt that will promote them to absolute dictatorship.

But being the educated illiterate you are, you never and will never see the meekness of Jonathan as due to his democratic tendencies but rather come to the conclusion that he was weak.

I hope you are enjoying the strong hard despot you clamoured for.

Ruga

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jayfolarin:
I am mad! I am frustrated, I am absolutely furious! I usually am the kind that stands by Every of my decision no matter what. And if given the chance again, I'd still vote out that thieving goat, GEJ and his armed robbery gang BUT how I sooo regret voting for buhari!!

Unlike probably a lot of the apc apologists here, I canvassed for votes for buhari in 2015 because
i believed the lies fed by a very effective Propaganda machine. I actually was convinced that he was a reformed Democrat. I mean, a quick look into my account history and posts will show you just how Pro-buhari I have been. Mannnnnnnnn, How wrong was I!!!! Truly, a leopard can never change its spot, can it?!


My absence from the country since 2015 meant that I couldn't personally observe his performance and I sincerely thought most of the guys antagonizing buhari on the internet are just paid PDP e-warriors. I actually believed that same propaganda in 2019 but after observing and carefully studying his patterns for a while now, it's easy to see that this old-useless-dictator wanna-be, has no democratic reforms to him in any way or form!

First it was the Shia leader, then Nnamdi Kanu (whose objective of seccession I still do not support!), and now sowore! I make bold to say this mad man at the helm of affairs is absolutely Mad!

I sincerely apologize to anyone that may have been misled in any way or form by my wrong judgment of character and subsequent vote canvass.

Signed
Jayfolarin

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[img]https://sallyember.files./2014/02/frog-heat-beaker.jpg[/img]

Ok.

Dear God,
May the Fulani agenda to take over fulani land be granted.


Amen

lanrefront1:
I think we need to wait for more confirmation on this.

Wait kill you there.

ERockson:
There is fire on the mountain. We've been rounded up in the Southwest already

Have fixed your post for free.

PHILipu1:
The police should keep quiet so that people like you can propagate the story and fight will start in the north and southeast?

The same useless police that will deny they are not aware or informed officially of Fulani killings is now the ones trying to protect fulani cow meat business from bad PR?

You see how daft you reason

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Oshigun:
R.etarded and over-sentimental Igbo man. Buhari was 71 When he became President. Kingibe will be nearly 80 you dullard. Perception is everything in Politics and even life. I can see the slogan now. "Buhari backs 80 year old has-been Kingibe". You guys are too slow I swear considering even your kinsman, Peter Obi, once said no one over 70 should lead Nigeria.

See for yourself mumu.

https://www.nairaland.com/2070776/nigerians-should-not-vote-leader

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And how old is your gbana Fraud?

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MayorofLagos:
I will appreciate that you talk kindly of my King.

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See this osogbo hinterland native claiming Lagos

Any topic that exposes fulani occupation of Afonja land will never make FP.

This should tell you who now owns NL.

mekaboy:
Notice how fayemi has become and enemy of the North, for trying to protect his people?

That snake is the number 1 afonja supporting Ruga

[s]

Westtimeline:
2 digits IQ is even better. What about you with no IQ that even mosquito reasons more than. Spit on your pathetic existence.

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Face your ruga

Afonja