₦airaland Forum

Bigmex:
BANKER OF TODAY

Haugesund FK - Sandefjord Fotball

Stake on 1 & NG @ 2.23

OR

Stake on 1 & Un 3.5 @ 2.00

FRoosevelt:
I like the part where you mentioned the players emotional state.

Football matches or any other competition are 60% psychological. Statistics aside, you can't compare the performance of a strong team playing preseason friendlies, to playing in a decisive knockout game.

Also, derby games, backroom crises, fatigue, weather,injuries, lineups, formations etc are decisive considerations in making a prediction.

Bookies don't consider most of these things until the last minute where you are likely to see their odds fluctuating based on what majority of people are staking on.
So the bookies, though smart, don't have it all. A smart punter should be able to explore these flaws and make a killing.

I can attest to that.

FRoosevelt:
I think with this analogy, your method still utilizes the bookie's probability on the expected outcomes despite the fact that you have been able to subtract the bookie's margin from it.
If you are able to generate your own probability independent of the bookie's probability, and calculate the expected value based on the odds given, I think you can have a positive EV (expected value) for such odds making it more profitable than following the bookie's probability.
What do you think?

alexistaiwo:
Chief, why take my post personal?
I don't remember quoting you neither do I recall mentioning your moniker in my initial comment that you quoted.

Different strokes for different folks.
Punting is not meant to be taken seriously to this level.
It is meant to be a form of entertainment for those who have the spare cash to burn.

All in all,
Punting is majorly based on luck.
Continue with your indepth analysis.
This was how brother Yaya in my neighborhood started.

God be with you

alexistaiwo:
They have used statistics

They have applied chemistry formulas

They have used Medical science techniques

They have used further mathematics

They have used Oxford English

They have used philosophy



They have used martingale

They have used Maria staking plan

They have used Sikira knacking style

But they are yet to use the most important principle in life which is common sense and common sense dictates that gambling is pure luck



*In Yoruba herb sellers voice*

Ati tata
Ati rara
Ero ti poju

Bigmex:
THE CONCEPT OF BUILT IN OVER ROUND PROFIT IN ODDS

For some time now, I have been looking for a way to choose likely games that will end or over 1.5 and this method I am about to share is kinda making sense and looks promising (only if you choose fewer games ).

For every odd for a selection the bookie introduces an in built profit margin to cover against any loss. This profit margin known as overround is from say 3% to 7%. But surprisingly, you will see margins up to the tune of 10.sumthing%. We are interested only in games such as this. What this means that one, the original odd value has been slashed by 10% and two, the bookmaker stands to make 10% of any stake placed on the odds regardless of the final outcome (WON OR LOST). So how do we calculate the over round in the first place. Consider a game to end either or NG.

Odd for is A (A represnts whatever fvcking value given such as 1.5, 1.4....etc..the same for B too).

Odd for NG is B

To calculate the inbuilt overround margin the bookie introduced into this odds to his own advantage, we simply do this

(100/A) + (100/B). Add up what you get and substract 100 from the final result. Now if the final result is 3.4 for example, this means the original odds were slashed by 3.4% to produce final odds of A and B and that regardless of the outcome of the match (whether it is o or NG o), the bookie will make 3.4% on all stakes (for both and NG). That is their in house advantage.

Now imagine you calculated an over round of 10% for a particular game, what this is telling you is that the original odds set has been slashed by 10%, because the bookie perceives that the game will likely be a banker and if lots of bettors stake on this game with the original odds, then they should get ready for a massive payout to their loss. so they tweak it. Now i suggest picking lower odds in any two way markets (such as /NG, Over 1.5/Under 1.5. I will avoid a three way market like 1X2). the lower the odds the better only after you have calculated over round to be 10% or higher.

I tried doing this today and got this result mind you with no game analysis. strictly using the above method

B912SPAPTSASPP-4353704

If three games can be picked like this these, win rate will be huge. If you know, you know. GOODLUCK

Hansberry44448:
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afoltundeseun:
Why not use livescores commentary of past matches to get an idea

afoltundeseun:
You mean freekick in a virtual game!

afoltundeseun:
what about your virtual strategy. Are you still game?

anayo01:
Okay truth be told...I am a newbie here buh have been on nl for some as guest until as of recent...felt that if I claim that I am not a newcomer my odds are higher...it clearly did not work as first class fbis and cias full thy thread..choi una even reach 2013 I jus t off as I see am..buh d rest of mi story is true...before God and man
Alex no vex buh u Bleep up fulltime..no mind wetin I talk e no deh work like dat...no too much hard feelings

OnwaChina:
Kindly ignore the village headmaster, see what he wants people to play

yehmy:
Oops is that the option abeg make una play am 4 bet9ja to avoid traffic

Twisting:
Both halves over 1.5 - Yes

I just dashed Akin Alabi Minime Chin Chin money.

joshuakdboy:
Cool

That's the mindset

chidiezeh:
Sharp guy...

I no Stake am fa

Sugaarh:
choi!!! yu still dey ask wetin e mean bet9ja don run comot am oh i don diee

Krak:
Why do you like dabbling into everything. If you continue like this you might end up in the Lagoon.