₦airaland Forum

[size=15pt]DAILY POST Poll: Jonathan worse than Obasanjo[/size]

By Sylvester Ugwuanyi on November 28, 2014




Majority of DAILY POST readers have voted to dispute claims by the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Public Affairs, Doyin Okupe, that no past administration have achieved as much as President Goodluck Jonathan since 1960 when Nigeria gained independence. They rather upheld former president Olusegun Obasanjo as a better leader that the incumbent.

The former president had while addressing book writers last week as part of activities marking the Ake Arts and Book Festival in Abeokuta disclosed that “I rate this current administration below average.” Barely 48 hours later; the Presidency released a statement through Okupe saying Obasanjo’s rating was at variance “with the facts on the ground”.

The statement further added that “in terms of performance and achievements, no administration since 1960 when Nigeria gained independence from Britain, has done as much as that of President Jonathan.”


This claim and counter-claim by the two leaders led DAILY POST to institute a poll on its website which asked respondents: Was Obasanjo a better president than Jonathan? The options were simply “better” and “worse”.

At the close of the survey by 12pm (local time) on Friday, a total of 1921 readers participated with 1180 of them (61 per cent) voting to claim that Obasanjo was a better president than Jonathan. The remaining 741 respondents (31 per cent) conversely voted to say that Obasanjo was a worse president than Jonathan.

Mindful of the limitations faced by a poll of this sort, this newspaper undertook the pain to check what was returned by the poll against how readers voted with their comments on the poll’s page as well as on the site’s Facebook portal. At the end of the day, there were 24 comments that came with the poll while another 372 comments were elicited by the poll on Facebook.

Stripped of all the irrelevant comments and replies to earlier comments by bloggers; the number of the entire comments came down to 267. When analyzed to see those who preferred either of two leaders as a better president, it was discovered that 183 of the respondents (68 per cent) suggested Obasanjo as a better president while the other 84 bloggers (32 per cent) rooted for President Jonathan as the better of the two.


Meanwhile, there were salient points made by some of those who commented that cannot be ignored. DAILYPOST took the liberty to edit some of the grammatical structures and syntax of these comments, but left the crux of their reactions intact. The views are presented below:

For Godwin Osaigbovo, he said, “you can’t compare them yet until after Jonathan’s administration. It will be unfair to do so. Nobody liked Obasanjo while he was in power, now everyone is suddenly praising him. Na so life be oo!”

A certain Princemark blogged, “Before you attempt to say yes or no with all wonderful reasons, find out who is a leader and what leadership is all about and then compare your findings with who a ruler is. Obasanjo was a ruler not a leader. President Jonathan is a third level leader but not an effective leader.”

Diamond Bobson posted, “Some of you can be so funny? Tell me one problem Nigeria has now that did not originate from Obasanjo’s or Nigerian past leaders era. Boko haram started in Obasanjo’s tenure. The issues of unemployment, insecurity, corruption, educational failure have always been there since northern leaders rule of over 40yrs and Obasanjo’s eight years in office. Obasanjo is the worst power taste, corrupt and great manipulator of all time. While in power, he used Nigeria as his palace from where he was manipulating almost all other African countries to his favor, choosing and sponsoring candidates for election as well.”


A respondent who adopted the sobriquet: Harry E, posted, “Obasanjo was not really a leader. President Jonathan has done very well in all sectors such as: Agriculture, Aviation, including road and rail transport system. What can you say of Obasanjo who ruled with impunity? His government was very corrupt with killings and pre arranged plane crash prevalent while he was in office.”

Equally siding with President Jonathan was Tayo brisibe, who posted, “I’ll waste no time in voting for Jonathan as a better president because he is more refined and he made our economy the 26th fastest growing in the world. He brought back the trains and rebuilt airports. He was even able to set up new universities. Obasanjo is nowhere near him.”

Here again is the opinion of another respondent who simply identified himself as Sam. He posted thus: “Anyone who says Obasanjo’s government was better than that of President Jonathan is not sincere and is blinded by selfishness, ethnicity and lover of party more than lover of Nigeria. These are few of many reasons why Obasanjo was the worst president and cannot be compared with the incumbent: during Obasanjo’s administration, only one company supplied cement to the entire country and it was sold for N3200 and above (Eagle Cement, Ibeto and others were crippled) – corruption;

“There were fuel scarcity every week and our roads were characterized by long queues. There was a statement credited to him: that Nigerians buy a bottle of beer for N200, that they can then easily buy fuel for any amount; Under his watch, this Boko Haram started and he did nothing because they were killing the Igbos and some south southerners: they killed Igbos and loaded the corpses onto a truck and sent it to Aba, which made other parts of the country to start their own killings; What about the 1% every Nigerian was paying whenever she recharged her phone. Whose account was it going? Have we forgotten so soon the political killings? How was electricity, railway, airport, etc. during his time? Which area can you say he was good, is it in rigging elections with impunity, or is it the destruction of innocent lives at Odi? Were killings in the north at his time not much more than was done in Odi? What did he do? I believe in the truth and it’s only by accepting the truth that we can move this country forward. Note that when you say the truth, you condemn evil and encourage good. Obasanjo’s administration cannot be compared with that of President Jonathan before god and man.”

Yet, those who voted for Obasanjo as a better president will have none of the foregoing as a certain Bobnnanna posted, “Yes! Elder Obasanjo’s administration was better than after their first 5years in office. How much was a barrel of crude oil during the first 5 years of his tenure and how much was it during Jonathan’s? How much was Nigeria’s debt before Obasanjo and how much was it before Jonathan came on board? How much was Nigeria’s foreign reserve before Obasanjo and how much was it before Jonathan? Yes, the both of them had/has corruption in their government but who was fighting it, even among his cabinet members and tribal men?

“In Obasanjo’s first 5 years, we were exposed to a global life style, the GSM revolution (2000-2001). But what has Jonathan’s government offered that can be felt even in the villages? Comrade Adams Oshiomole used the labour union to mount opposition against Obasanjo without being politicized, but you know the opposite is the case today! It is endless! What about the divisive nature of Jonathan’s government which divides Nigerians along religious and ethnic lines? It was never perceived in Obasanjo’s days! Grounding governors’ planes; ceiling Emirs’ palace; using ex-militants as security guards, etc.”

Boniface Maisamari maintained that there was no basis for comparing the two, noting that “Obasajo is far better than Jonathan. During Obasanjo’s era, there were job opportunities as against what obtains in this present administration. Only few of them are enjoying themselves.” Alalade azeez aderemi posted, “Jonathan ke? A docile president; He allows corruption. He is surrounded by corrupt politicians. He cannot take decisive decisions. I regret voting for him in 2011. Anyway, it will never happen again.”

While Babatunde Latopa, alleged that “All the key projects that President Jonathan is commissioning were started by Obasanjo.” Saying, “I like Coodluck Jonathan as a person but not as leader,” Prince Samuel Joseph gave the only reason for preferring Obasanjo’s presidency to that of Jonathan was because “he was more proactive than Jonathan.”

Equally worthy of showcasing was the position of Ikeagwu Nneke, who posted that, “While I will give it to Obasanjo as being a better president than Jonathan. I won’t fail to take into consideration the fact that Obasanjo had everything going for him. He had been in the army all his life and even rose to become a head of state. Hence, he had the wherewithal to stand up to those whose predilection is to exploit the nation. But Jonathan is a neophyte, a political tryo, if you may. Nigeria is too big a country for Jonathan. He doesn’t have what it takes to handle Nigeria’s complex situation.”

The former president is seen as having a penchant to publicly condemn the government of Jonathan who many believe he helped to get into power. Obasanjo has written an acerbic letter to President Jonathan some months ago where he said the present government was stinking of corruption. He also alleged that the president was lying to Nigerians, destroying the country and promoting corruption.


http://dailypost.ng/2014/11/28/daily-post-poll-jonathan-worse-obasanjo/

[size=15pt]Nigerian Politicians, Brinksmanship and the Consequences of Political Recklessness, [/size]

By Jibrin Ibrahim

It was the late BBC commentator, Alistair Cook, who re-phrased the famous dictum thus – “Power Corrupts and Absolute Power is Absolutely Delicious”. He was referring to the illusions of grandeur people who occupy state offices have, thinking they have so much power that they can do anything they want and get away with it. Surrounded with a cabal of praise singers, those in power on our dear continent believe they can “enjoy” the power they have anyhow and often become so reckless that they undermine their power and threaten the stability of the political system.

A few hours before the French rescued former President Blaise Campaore and smuggled him out to Cote d’Ivoire, his presidential guard had assured him that he should not mind the protestors, they would deal with them and he will get the annoying Article 37 that was blocking the prolongation of his 27-year reign. It was inconceivable to him that he would not rule for the rest of his days on earth. The same people who assured Campaore that he would continue his rule are today saying he must be investigated and prosecuted for the massive quantity of blood on his hands. So many other presidents have committed the same mistake thinking that because they enjoy the perquisites of power, there is no reason why they should not always do as they please.

The past week has seen the escalation of political recklessness in the country and my column today is devoted to cautioning those in power to beware about the abuse of the powers that they hold in trust for the people. This Saturday, police and DSS operatives stormed the office of the opposition APC in Lagos seizing and destroying computers, files and equipment. It is always an ominous sign when State officials start directly attacking the houses and offices of the opposition party trying to wrest power from them through democratic means. The same week, mobile policemen armed with APCs provided cover and security for seven ruling party members of the Ekiti State House of Assembly to claim that they have impeached the Speaker and Deputy Speaker who have a comfortable majority of 19 members in the House. Also within the week, hundreds of soldiers under a senior officer escorted former Governor Ali Modu Sheriff to Borno State to organise political party networks for the forthcoming elections. This is the same person that the DSS has announced is being investigated for possible implication with the Boko Haram insurgency.

My most serious concern for the past week was what Senate President David mark has called the barbaric attack on legislators by policemen on Thursday. In what was clearly an attempted coup against the leadership of Speaker Tambuwal, the police allowed access to the National Assembly to Deputy Speaker Emeka Ihedioha but locked the gate against the Speaker and his new friends from the opposition APC. The startled legislators were smart enough to realize that a coup was being organised against them and had the good sense to scale the fence and enter the grounds in spite of all the tear gas canisters being thrown at them by the police. It was one of the most shameful incidents in the history of our democracy in which naked State power was used to try and change the leadership of the National Assembly. It was interesting that the Inspector General of Police had announced to the country that Tambuwal was no longer the Speaker as if police duties include deciding who would be Speaker.

It would be recalled that last year, a certain police commissioner was posted to Rivers State to try to organise for five members out of thirty-two members of the Rivers State House of Assembly to impeach the Speaker and then proceed to impeach the stubborn Governor Rotimi Amaechi who has been a thorn to many in the ruling class circles. The police had shown complete contempt and lack of respect to the Rivers State Governor in spite of the fact that he embodies the legitimacy of government at the state level. As I said at the time, it was reckless for the Federal symbols of power to be exercised by the presidency to openly undermine a state government because if power is used unjustly to destabilize one level of government, other powers can be used against other levels of government.

I know that all Nigerian Presidents are by definition very powerful, even if historically, some have been more powerful than others. Nigeria is one of the few remaining countries in the world where a President can spend billions of dollars, with or without appropriation by the National Assembly to carry out his heart’s desire. A Nigerian President can pick anyone in the streets and make him or her a dollar multi-billionaire by simply signing and giving the person a piece of paper called an oil block allocation. Yes indeed, Nigerian presidents are very powerful and precisely because of this are unable to see that there are limits to their power and above all, there are risks in exercising power recklessly.

Part of the problem is that we live in a country where sycophancy is so advanced that every President is cornered into thinking that his every move is a masterstroke, no matter how stupid it is. This is a country where presidents are turned into intellectual and political slaves of sycophants who surround them with false and baseless narratives that constrain their action and isolate them from the realities facing the country. As I have said repeatedly, one area where Nigerian political science has clearly failed is that of deconstructing such narratives. Each successive Nigerian Head of State has been so besotted with the illusions of grandeur and “absolute” power at their disposal that they begin to think that they are God? As a Nation, we must learn to start telling our presidents that they are not God. That they are simply public officials constrained in their acts by the Constitution and the laws of the land.

A few years ago, we saw brute state power applied to impose a candidate on the PDP for the Bayelsa governorship elections. Troops were moved into Yenegoa to create conditions for the emergence of Henry Dickson as the PDP candidate and the rest, as they say, is history as former Governor Timipre Syslva was left to lick his wounds. We might well be approaching the time when it will be Dickson’s turn to be shoved out of power in a similar manner.

Our Constitution directs governance institutions to promote the rights and welfare of Nigerians. In recent times, Nigerians have been posing the question about the purpose of governance. Is it to punish the people or improve their welfare? The second question is whether governance is to promote the interest of a cabal or to promote the public interest. Contemporary political science has fused the two words – govern and ability into the concept of governability. Governability is the overall capacity for governance of any societal entity or system. The question posed today is the level of shocks the Nigeria system can take before it becomes ungovernable. Those who exercise power must always ask themselves what the limits to their action are.

One of the major principles of statecraft is that although force is a central element in political systems, it cannot on its own sustain a polity. Rousseau reminds us that even the strongest is never strong enough to remain the master unless he is capable of transforming force into law and obedience into duty. In other words, the governability of modern political systems depends on achieving results that uplift the people and create consensus on how the system operates.

The Nigerian state has no monopoly of the means of coercion. As our state loses the capacity to contain internal insurgency and state power is used to impose politicians in power, serious questions about legitimacy are posed. When we begin to see that very high State officials such as the Speaker or a Governor are being harassed and intimidated by the police and other security agencies rather than being protected, then we have a problem and the ultimate responsibility to ensure that we maintain our democracy lies with the President.

http://blogs.premiumtimesng.com/?p=166175

hmmmmmmmmm

[size=20pt]Voting for Nigeria’s future[/size]
By Femi Aribisala

What is the forthcoming 2015 presidential election about? Let us first identify what it is not about. It is not about improving the economy of Nigeria. If you insist it is, then you will need to tell me what either the PDP or the APC has told Nigerians it will do with regard to the economy. As a matter of fact, the only party whose economic programme we know is the PDP. At least, we can see what it has been able to achieve in the last 16 years. However, the APC is barely one year old. I need someone to tell me the economic policy of the APC. It is non-existent.

Voodoo economics

Let us see if we can get some indications by focusing on those currently in the running for the APC’s presidential ticket. In the first place, we have Muhammadu Buhari. I must confess that I don’t have a clue as to what Buhari’s economic policy is because he has not told us about it. In spite of the fact that he is running for president for a marathon fourth time, the truth is that Buhari does not have an economic policy.

Worse still; Buhari is a retired military officer. He has no economic background or training. Buhari knows little or nothing about the Nigerian economy; how much more how to transform and improve it. A man who claims he had to borrow 27.5 million naira from a bank in order to pay for the presidential nomination papers of his party is not likely to have the resources to put together a serious economic think tank.

We also have competing for the APC ticket, men like Atiku Abubakar and Rabiu Kwankwaso. Quite apart from the fact that these men have also been economical as to what precisely they would do with regard to the Nigerian economy, they were until just yesterday, members of the ruling PDP. Atiku was even the vice-president of Nigeria under the PDP for 8 years. Kwankwaso was a PDP governor. Therefore, we cannot expect anything different from either of them than what we have been getting under the PDP.

Let us face the facts, Atiku and Kwankwaso defected to the APC, not because of any policy or ideological differences they had with the PDP, but because they realised that they could not run for the presidency under the PDP, which has a sitting president. These men are in the APC for reasons of expediency and not of policy. When the APC loses the election in 2015 and, with Jonathan out of the way, they can be expected to make their way back to the PDP with their tails between their legs.

Anti-corruption malarkey

There are those who insist the election is about dealing with endemic corruption. If so, the only political party in Nigeria that has addressed in any way shape or form the issue of corruption in Nigeria has been the PDP. If we have anti-corruption agencies in Nigeria today, they were instituted by the PDP. If we have jailed corrupt politicians, after taking them through due process, it has only happened under the PDP. If we have recovered monies stolen from abroad, it has only taken place under the PDP. The PDP has even on occasion prosecuted some of its own members who were corrupt.

There is nothing anti-corruption about the APC. The party welcomes thieves, robbers and saints into its ranks with equal enthusiasm. If you are a thief or in a position to provide stolen public funds for the use of the APC, the party’s political machinery in your state will be handed over to you. The APC cannot claim to be anti-corruption when the fee for procuring the nomination papers for its presidential primaries is even more extortionate than that of the PDP. In short, as far as corruption is concerned, there is no difference between the PDP and the APC. They are Tweedledee and Tweedledum.

I have never heard anybody accuse Atiku Abubakar or Bola Tinubu of being anti-corruption. The person who brings the illusion of an anti-corruption debate into the 2015 presidential election is Muhammadu Buhari. But if Buhari is so anti-corruption, what is he doing in the APC? In any case, Buhari has not for one minute told us what he would do about corruption in Nigeria.

What we have is just a lot of grandstanding. How does he propose to contend with a legislature which will surely comprise the usual staple of corrupt politicians? How does Buhari hope to address the issue of corruption in the judiciary? Not a word on any of these issues. All we are told is that he is anti-corruption. Unfortunately for the APC, it is only the PDP that has an anti-corruption policy, even if this policy is currently implemented imperfectly.

Nation-building

If the 2015 presidential election is not about the Nigerian economy and not about corruption what then is it about? The election is first and foremost about building the nation of Nigeria. Do we vote to go forward as a viable and united nation, or do we vote for the eventual disintegration of Nigeria? There can be no question that, to date, these have been the most pressing questions concerning the forthcoming presidential election.

The question then is this: which political party is best able to move forward the Nigeria project. Which political party will be best able to promote the unity of Nigeria: is it the PDP or is it the APC? As far as I am concerned, this question is a no-brainer. In every material particular, the PDP is today the party that is best positioned to secure Nigeria’s future, while the APC is inclined to jeopardize it.

As a matter of fact, the people who have been threatening the internal cohesion of Nigeria over the last six years by the insistence that a South-South man should not rule the country are mainly to be found in the APC. For this very reason, someone like me will continue to support the PDP over the APC for the duration of this election cycle.

Inclusive Nigeria

Nigeria cannot be a country for the majority tribes alone, especially in a situation where oil, the mainstay of the Nigerian economy, comes from the minority South-South states. My faith teaches me to always support the weak. In a situation where the North-West has produced the leadership of this country for 14 years, the North-Central for 18 years and the South-West for 11, no one should begrudge the South-South if one of its sons were to occupy the presidency for 10 years; according to the dictates of divine providence.

The truth is that, in spite of its many shortcomings, the PDP is the only truly national party we have in Nigeria. The APC is a coalition of ethnically chauvinistic parties. ACN was primarily a Yoruba party of the South-West. CPC was a one-man Northern party formed principally to advance the political ambitions of Buhari. In the 2011 presidential elections, ACN barely got votes from the North, while CPC barely got votes from the South.

In coalition as the APC, these South-West and North-West parties remain ethnically chauvinistic. APC cannot get 25% of the votes in two-thirds of the states in the federation. All its presidential candidates are from the North. The overwhelming majority of its governors are Muslims. Such a party is not in the interest of the growth and development of a united Nigeria. The PDP, on the other hand, is a North-West, North-Central, North-East, South-West, South-South and South-East party. It has roots in all parts of the federation.

No brinkmanship

At different points in the history of Nigeria, we have been able to step back from the brink and recalibrate our trajectory towards a united nation. That was the reason why, in 1999, it was generally agreed that the next president of Nigeria should be a South-West Yoruba man. Accordingly, the major contenders for the presidency were Yorubas. That decision was taken in the interest of national unity. Such a sober and enlightened consideration needs to be taken again in the political climate of the 2015 election.

Nigerians must be careful not to give the people of the South-South the impression that while we continue to exploit their oil, we refuse to recognize them as equal partners in Nigeria. It can be argued that we have already accommodated them since Goodluck Jonathan has been president for six years. But I beg to disagree.

In the last six years, the “born to rule” elements in the North have not allowed Goodluck Jonathan to rule. All sorts of schemes have been used to frustrate his administration. Even the prerogative for a party with a majority in the House of Representatives to have its own speaker was betrayed on the altar of ethnic chauvinism. We also had the unedifying situation where the Governor of the Central Bank went rogue, gave government funds to the opposition and cast aspersions publically against the government. That is not done.

The 2015 presidential elections are about the continued existence of Nigeria as a nation. The only party that can guarantee that now is the PDP. If Goodluck Jonathan loses the presidential election, even in a free and fair poll, I am convinced the future of Nigeria would become even more problematic. The South-South would not take his rejection kindly. We cannot continue to drink their oil and then reject their rule. They would either demand secession, or they would sabotage the oil wells.

With Boko Haram insurgency, Nigeria limps on because the economic jugular of the country is safely tucked away in the South. But with South-South insurgency, the Nigerian economy would grind to a halt. If the North would not allow Jonathan to rule, don’t expect the South-South to allow Buhari or Atiku to rule. As far as I am concerned, the economic disaster that would follow the rejection of the PDP in favour of the sectarian APC is too high a price to pay; just because some people feel the Nigerian presidency is their birthright.

http://blogs.premiumtimesng.com/?p=166035

[size=15pt]The Brave Hunter’s Tale, the Military and the State[/size]
By Jibrin Ibrahim


Nigeria continues to lose territory to the Boko Haram insurgency and we are moving fast along the path of a complete takeover of a significant part of the country by terrorists. As our country gradually loses its sovereignty, the actions that define political behaviour consists of the insurgents perpetrating violence, mass murder, abductions, hate, sex slavery and other atrocities and crimes against humanity against Nigerians?

Meanwhile, our governing class under the leadership of President Goodluck Jonathan is watching with what I suppose must be a sense of helplessness, fear, foreboding and paralysis. This is putting it positively. They may in fact be watching these developments with nonchalance or even a callous attitude that it serves those opposition northerners right that their people are killing them.

Whatever their attitude, what we know for sure is that our ruling classes in general, from the local government level to the presidency remain focused on stealing the national wealth and self-aggrandisement. The people look on in disgust wondering why they have rulers they certainly do not deserve. Religious leaders continue their profession of extracting money from their poor followers. Very few are engaged in the necessary struggle of stopping the violence and saving and rebuilding Nigeria.

The question before us therefore is who will save Nigeria from the onslaught of the insurgents. Eureka, I am told, it’s the traditional hunters and so-called civilian JTF. Over the past week, it appears that they have been mobilised to liberate Maiha and Mubi in Adamawa State from the insurgents. Using sticks and bows and arrows, the traditional hunters were reported to have chased out Boko Haram from Mubi, killing 75 of them and recovered five armoured personnel carriers from them. Their brave action allowed Mubi’s 234-army battalion to return to the town.

Maybe I am stupid, but I just don’t get it. The dominant discourse has been that due to thirty years of corruption and neglect, the Nigerian armed forces are suffering from lack of modern arms and equipment. The insurgents on the other hand are said to be well armed with rocket grenade launchers, state of the art armoured personnel carriers and so on. I simply do not understand how traditional hunters with cudgels, sticks, bows and arrows are able to rout them out.

Let me say that I know that in war, motivation, commitment and fearlessness are key ingredients that can produce victories in spite the odds. Boko Haram fighters who have engaged the Nigerian armed forces with motivation and fearlessness had won numerous victories against soldiers who according to the Ministry of Defence statements in numerous Court Martials have shown fear and cowardice against the enemy. The military are busy trying to sentence their cowards to death while hoping the remaining ones would become brave. In the future, we will return to this theme of how we ended up with soldiers who are afraid of fighting.

Meanwhile, what we have been told this past week is that the hunters, unlike the Lilly livered soldiers are fearless and motivated to recover their homelands and their attitude might well have shocked the Boko Haram fighters who are used to fighting our armed forces who run away as soon as they hear the enemy is approaching. This gives the hunters the element of surprise, which is so important when battles are being fought.

All the same, there is a limit to how far you can go with sticks and cudgels when the enemy has state of the art military assets. When Nigeria was being colonised, our forefathers were brave and motivated but their bows and arrows were no match for the Maxim gun and that was why we were defeated. I have never really ever understood the military narrative on the Boko Haram insurgency. With our mighty armed forces, the insurgents were supposed to have created traction by fighting asymmetrical warfare. And yet, over the past three months, they have moved to conventional warfare in which they are conquering and keeping territory. That is not supposed to happen. The famous Sambisa forest I am told is simply savannah bush land with a few stunted trees and bushes. I do not understand how our mighty armed forces have not moved in with tanks to clear it of insurgents over the last four years. Could it be that there is a political decision not to defeat the insurgency?

If the hunters are able to deal with Boko Haram insurgents so easily, then the narratives about how well Boko Haram insurgents are armed is exaggerated. If however the success of the hunters is an exaggerated tale, then Nigerians deserve to be told what is really going on. The story of the hunters and their successes is extremely comforting to Nigerians who have been subjected to years of bad news. I am myself in desperate need of comforting stories so I love the narrative of the brave hunters. However, I am sorry to admit that as a social scientist, I find it difficult to believe that the hunters can so easily defeat a rugged well-trained terrorist group.

I also have problems at the strategic level. Our salvation from terrorism cannot lie in searching for and arming local fighters. They can become a problem to their communities subsequently. The state exists to takeover security functions from local warlords. We cannot take the risk of supporting local warlords who would subsequently use their arms to commit acts of extortion and arbitrariness against their communities. Its clear to all that we have an army that is unwilling or not allowed to fight. In such a context, I can understand recruiting motivated young hunters and elements of the civilian JTF into the army to do the fighting but I want to be spared the story of using sticks to defeat APCs.

The continued existence of our country is under serious threat. Unfortunately, our leaders are clearly not sufficiently visionary to see that what is at stake is the continued survival of all of us, and that when things fall apart completely, they too and their relations and acquisitions would not be safe. I have argued previously in this column that what Nigeria has lacked in its recent history is a leadership with a vision and a sense of enlightened self-interest. The idea of enlightened self-interest is simple, by serving the common good of society, the leadership serves their own interest of getting legitimacy, respect and even the material gains they seek.

The alternative approach is approaching leadership on the basis of greed and myopic selfishness. This approach has negative consequences as the whole community suffers loss as a result of conflict and its impact, as well as decreased efficiency and productivity. The result is costly for the community as a whole as each individual seeks to provide for their own protection without success. A few greedy leaders and their cronies make enormous personal gain to satisfy personal greed but the majority of the members of the community experience net personal loss.

The war against the insurgency definitely needs significant local input to succeed. Local communities need to take leadership of the war against the insurgency by encouraging their young and motivated members to join the army and by providing intelligence to the armed forces. At the same time, during this delicate point in our national existence, all governments at the three levels, federal, state and local government, need to keep politics aside and work towards building faith in the possibility of rebuilding the nation and restoring peace.

The security agencies for their part need to weed out cowards and rogue elements within them that are engaged in creating more mayhem rather that working for peace. We must avoid the path of communities relying on traditional hunters to save them from terrorists. We are supposed to have a State, let’s have some evidence that the State and its armed forces exists to protect us.

http://blogs.premiumtimesng.com/?p=166092

...continue.

2011 Results Analysis
In May 2011, gubernatorial polls took place and results were announced in 25 states, excluding the Imo (re-run) and 9 others which were not due for re-election. 20 states had one-term sitting governors running for re-election, and 5 states had vacant seats after Governors had completed two terms. Their average share of the votes looked like this:

Category Number of State Average winning share of vote
1. Sitting Governor gets second term 17 69.01%
2. Non-incumbent candidate wins 8 54.08%
2a> where opponent beats one-term sitting governor who 3 47.3%
is running for re-election
2b> where candidate wins ‘empty’ seat where there is 5 58.16%
no first-term governor running for re-election
2b.1> of which candidate from immediate previously ruling party wins ‘empty’ seat 3 62.7%
2b.2> of which candidate from party previously in opposition wins ‘empty’ seat 2 51.15%
3. Average winning share of PDP sitting Governors 15 68.22%
4. Average winning share of non-PDP sitting Governors 2 74.95%

Based on this we can see that in 2011 elections being an incumbent governor typically gives an advantage of 15% when seeking re-election (69.01 – 54.08 = 14.93%).

The marginal advantage of being an incumbent party contesting a ‘vacant’ seat – i.e. where a governor has completed two terms and is not coming back – is calculated by subtracting the average vote-share of winning non-incumbents from the average vote share of those who won seats just vacated by the same party: 11.2% (62.7% – 51.5%)

Some other observations:
If you’re contesting for an ‘empty’ seat, you’re likely to win by a larger share of the vote (62%) if you’re from the party which was just in power than if you’re from an opposition party (51%). Anyone not in power at the start of the race (whether national opposition or ruling party, whether running against a sitting governor or an empty seat) typically gets a lower margin of victory (47%) than incumbents running for re-election (69%). The advantage of being an incumbent first-term governor running for re-election is not larger for PDP Governors. In fact, non-PDP incumbents won with average 75% share of the votes, whereas PDP incumbents won an average of 68%. It thus seems that being in power locally matters more than being allied with the national ruling party, although more research and larger samples would be needed to prove this.

2015 Election Projections
Using the trends in the 2011 elections, if other conditions remain equal, based on the current landscape, we make the following preliminary projections.

State Governorships
There are 28 gubernatorial seats up for election in 2015:
10 incumbents are contesting for a second term
Three are in PDP-controlled states
Seven are in APC-controlled states.
18 vacant seats
Fourteen are in PDP-controlled states
Four are in APC-controlled states
Category Current No. of State Governorships Projections of State Governorships to be won 2015
Incumbents: Based on 85% Rule
APC 7 6 in APC states = 6
PDP 3 3 in PDP states1 in APC states = 4

Seats to be vacant: Based on winning vote share in 2011 gubernatorial elections: 60-40%
APC 4 2 in APC states6 in PDP states = 8
PDP 14 8 in PDP states2 in APC states = 10

Assumed to be incumbent in states with no election in February 2015
APC 3 3
PDP 3 3
APGA 1 1
LABOUR 1 1

TOTAL
APC 14 17
PDP 20 17
APGA 1 1
LABOUR 1 1

TOTAL 36 36

Projections:
If the rule that incumbents win 85% of the time with a 60% share of votes holds, for the 10 states with incumbents running for re-election in the governorship elections, a likely outcome is that the APC wins 6 seats while the PDP wins 4. There are 18 vacant seats which will have no incumbent contesting. In 2011, the PDP won 60% of such seats while opposition parties (although before uniting as the APC) collectively won 40%. Working with this admittedly crude assumption (based on just five vacant seats contested in 2011), the PDP is therefore likely to win 10 governorship states while the APC gets 8 states. Therefore in states holding elections in 2015, it is likely that the PDP ends up with 14 states and the APC with 14. If these figures are added to the other states without governorship elections, the tally is:

PDP: 14 states + 3 non-participating states = 17
APC: 14 states + 3 non-participating states = 17
APGA = 1 non-participating state
Labour = 1 non-participating state
Total 36 states

This could mean that PDP and allied parties will control 19 states, fewer than the 22 it currently does. However, these are broad generalisations and it is difficult to identify the specific states in question.

NigeriaElectionsMap2Presidential election projections
Going by the initial rule we applied, if the PDP candidate is incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan, he might seem to have an 85% chance of winning with about 60% of the votes. However, given Nigeria’s Federal system, the proportion of vacant governorship seats and the rapidly changing alliances in the political landscape, other variables may come into play.

We can assume that states largely support the same party for Presidential elections as they do for Governorship elections (although in 2011 a number of mainly northern states, as well as ACN states in in an electoral pact with PDP in the South-West, bucked the trend). Going by the 85% assumption, if local incumbency is the prime factor, since 22 of the states are currently PDP or allied parties in the current dispensation, the PDP may win the Presidential vote in 21 states (19 PDP states and 2 APC states), and the APC meanwhile would win Presidential votes in 15 states (12 currently APC and 3 PDP states). This is likely to be enough for a simple majority.[1]

If however, we go by the projected trends in the governorship elections as useful pointers, we end up with a different result, with both parties winning in 17 states each. The absolute numbers of voters cannot be predicted but it may be significant that the APC goes into the election controlling two states with the largest number of registered voters, Lagos (6.1 million registered voters in 2011) and Kano (5 million).
Also remember that section 134 (1) of Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution lays down two conditions for a victory; one is a majority of votes cast, but the other is a minimum of 25% of registered voters in two-thirds of Nigeria’s states (i.e. 24 states).

Currently, with support of Labour and APGA, the PDP controls enough states to ensure that. However, in 2011 Bauchi state did not reach the needed minimum even when controlled by PDP, delivering only 16.05% of the vote for the party’s candidate, while Katsina, also PDP, only just scraped over the minimum with 26.1%. So it is reasonable to assume that if support or turnout is low in PDP-ruled northern states, not all may deliver the 25% minimum needed to secure a win for the party’s candidate. In such a circumstance, the Constitution states that candidates would be forced into a second-round run-off election. Such a situation has not previously occurred under Nigeria’s present electoral system.
Therefore, of three possible outcomes – outright PDP win, outright APC win, or a run-off election – the most likely outcome based on our projections from current data is that neither party would manage both factors for an outright victory so there would need to be an additional run-off election. Neither is it clear which party that situation would favour. On one hand a nationally incumbent party may retain more resources to continue mobilising, but on the other, both the voting public and important political intermediaries may perceive momentum in the opposition which galvanises support for them popularity.

If the presidential election does not favour an outright win for the PDP, it may also further weaken the PDP’s chances at the subsequent gubernatorial level given the proportion of vacant seats (18) to incumbent re-elections (10). The deciding states for the presidential election and the overall fortune of the two parties will be those 18 vacant seats, which also happen to have 54.4% (40.03 million) of 2011’s registered voters, including 10 of the 14 states with the largest number of registered voters, underlining just how open this race really is.

Some Caveats
Incumbency advantages are very dependent on specific local factors, such as candidates, coalitions, party machinery, electorate sophistication, local issues and more; therefore it is hard to make a solid prediction on the outcomes. Importantly, the 2015 elections appear as if they will be a two-party race in all states, although this may also change if heavyweights who lose primaries in the two major parties decide to leave them.

In such a situation, the advantages of incumbency calculated from the 2011 multi-party elections may have less predictive value at the gubernatorial elections because the APC is a merger of three parties with varying strengths; the ACN, CPC and ANPP. This is additionally complex in states (such as Kano, Imo and Kwara) where PDP governors crossed over to the APC. In that case, the advantage of incumbency would go beyond 11% because we would need to consider what proportion of the 2011 vote for other parties in the merger (i.e. CPC and ANPP) will be scooped up by APC. Additionally, in most of the states where the governor crossed over from the national ruling PDP with some or all of his supporters, the PDP still has a solid state structure.

While we are able to make some plausible projections where incumbents are re-contesting in 2015, it is difficult to do so for the 18 vacant seats because the parameters so far cannot test the strength of the opposition merger. What we can say however is that these seats will be hotly-contested. Since presidential elections occur before governorship elections, it is possible these projections may have little predictive value on the outcome of the presidential elections because the patterns of voting for the governorship and presidential elections are considerably different.[2]

Moreover, there is no clear pattern – beyond an assumed incumbency advantage – by which states vote for a presidential candidate. Several factors come into play such as the interaction of local and national coalitions, incumbency, popularity of presidential candidates, local actors – governorship candidates and power brokers, relative party strength and structure, type of identity allegiances, and historical political behaviour of states. The large number of vacant seats (18 of 28 up for election) will test the cohesion and organisation of the parties. One possibility is that the incentive for an outgoing or ‘lame duck’ Governor in a state with strong presence of an opposition party to ‘deliver’ that state to their presidential candidate is highly variable.Another important qualifier is candidates’ combination and popularity: We cannot fully factor this variable until the APC selects its candidate, but identity considerations are likely to be strong influences.

Zainab Usman is a DPhil Candidate at the University of Oxford.
Oliver Owen is Junior Research Fellow in International Development at the Oxford Department of International Development.

[1] However, remember that five of those Jonathan-supporting states in 2011 were ACN states voting according to a cross-party pact, and this may have dampened voter enthusiasm – despite the pact in Lagos, only 1,281,688 of the 6,108,069 registered voters actually contributed to Jonathan’s win, so we must allow the possibility that greater numbers might turn out for an incumbent party’s own candidate.

[2] Five ACN states in the South-West voted PDP in the presidential elections while nine PDP states voted CPC in the presidential elections in 2011.

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[size=15pt]Nigeria2015: Analysts say President Jonathan may get overall majority, but run-off likely[/size]


Zainab Usman, a doctoral candidate in International Development at Oxford University and her colleague, Dr. Olly Owen, British, worked on this scholarly analysis of the coming general elections in Nigeria for months. They have now published their report, making projections on the likely outcomes of the election. How accurate the predictions would be remains to be seen. But it is an interesting analysis that anyone interested in the election anywhere in the world should read.


Major Highlights

- In order to win the Presidency in 2015, the successful party will have to control the majority of Nigeria’s 36 state Governorships.
- In the 2015 elections half of the State Governors will have completed their maximum two terms, so state-level elections are likely to be extremely competitive across the country.
- Of the 28 governorship elections taking place, 18 states (or two-thirds) will have vacant seats. 10 of these 18 states have 40.9% of all registered voters.
- This numerical analysis indicates both the PDP and APC could each secure 17 states in Governorship elections.
- To win, a Presidential candidate needs an overall majority and at least 25% of the votes in two-thirds of the states (24 states). On current indications, if President Goodluck Jonathan runs as PDP candidate he is likely to get an overall majority. However, he may not automatically get the necessary one-quarter of the vote in two-thirds of states and the FCT.
- Therefore if voting patterns are similar to 2011 a run-off election situation would be likely. This would be a historic first under Nigeria’s present electoral system.
However, this run-off outcome is likely to be determined by the choice of candidates put up by the main APC opposition party and the issue of North-South ‘zoning’.
- It is difficult to predict the outcome of this run-off. If it does not favour an outright win for the PDP, it may further weaken its chances at the subsequent gubernatorial elections given that half of the seats are vacant.
2011’s results are only a useful guide to 2015 if conditions stay the same, including INEC’s conduct in voter registration and election management.
- Therefore, with high incentives for many actors to rig, it will be important for stakeholders in democratic consolidation to focus on issues such as registration and collation, which are likely to be hot in all states.

The Rationale
As the 2015 elections inch nearer, the spaces of Nigerian public discourse are beginning to fill with speculation as to the chances of various contenders, the possible alignments of political forces, and likely outcomes. Yet most of this discussion is conjectural and instinctive rather than analytical. Here, we attempt instead to make some projections about 2015’s elections by generating conclusions from 2011’s election results, turnouts and voter numbers. Our central assumption is that since 1999, the parties which have controlled Nigeria’s 36 state Governorships have been able to strongly influence the result of Presidential elections in each state.

In 2011, President Goodluck Jonathan won the election with 22,495,187 total votes across the country, winning not only states where the ruling PDP governed, but also all states in the South-West apart from Osun, thanks to an electoral pact between the PDP and the now-defunct ACN which ran most South-Western states. Although President Jonathan did not win in 12 Northern states (including nine which returned PDP Governors but where a majority voted for Muhammadu Buhari of the now-defunct CPC for President), he was able to get over the 25% of votes threshold in all but four (all Northern) states; of which only two were PDP. This indicates that local voter appeal can be an important modifier of the power of incumbency.

But in 2015, the landscape appears very different. As control of the 36 states and Federal Capital Territory (Abuja) are key to how national elections are won, we must first examine the state-level elections. In 2011, one of the authors analysed gubernatorial election results (as posted by Nigeria Elections Coalition).

Some interesting findings emerged:
Nigeria’s elections conform to a rule of thumb, (as propounded by political scientists such as Nic Cheeseman) about elections in Africa and more widely: when incumbents run for re-election, they win over 85% of the time and typically with over 60% of the vote – in 2011, 17 of Nigeria’s 20 then-incumbent State Governors were re-elected – exactly 85%, with an average winning vote of 69%. Although based on a small sample, this margin of victory was similar whether the winning Governor was from the national ruling PDP or another party, suggesting that state-level incumbency might be more important than being part of a national ruling party. Any candidate contesting for a ‘vacant’

Governorship is more likely to win, and by a larger margin, if they are from the same party as the previous incumbent. (See calculations below).
As well as pointing to the importance of incumbency, and the role of constitutional mechanisms such as term limits in maintaining democracy, these results also offer a way to predicting possible outcomes the 2015 polls. In what follows, we explore what the figures may tell us.
We are aware of two weaknesses in our methodology. One is the small size of the data sample – drawn from just one previous national election under the same conditions. The other is our assumptions – for 2011’s data to have predictive value, a number of conditions must remain the same; we debate whether or not they are likely to in the section on ‘assumptions’.

The Political Landscape in the run-up to 2015
The first thing to note is that the alignment of political forces today is very different to 2011. Whereas the PDP went into the 2011 elections controlling 27 state governments, currently it controls 20 and can rely on the likely support of two more Governors, from Ondo (Labour) and Anambra (APGA), making 22 in total. The APC opposition meanwhile controls 14 states, as illustrated below. This is a rapidly changing dynamic however, as alliances continue to be built and reconfigured.

NigeriaElectionsMap1Secondly, 20 Governors entered the 2011 elections in the strong position of first-term incumbents looking to come back; but in 2015, only 10 of 28 Gubernatorial incumbents will be re-contesting – 7 for APC and 3 for PDP. The other 18 races will be ‘open’ with no incumbent, while 8 states where elections are held at different times will not be holding Governorship polls. This means more elections will be competitive, with fewer places where an incumbent Governor can be sure to ‘deliver’ a state’s vote for their Presidential candidate. This makes results even less predictable, but as 2011 shows – even outgoing parties without an incumbent re-contesting retain a marginal advantage. We can therefore assume that states which have been run by a particular party will still be more likely to support that party’s Presidential candidate.

Assumptions
The usefulness of 2011’s figures in predicting outcomes of 2015 rests on seven assumptions. We note that all of these are open to debate:
There will be elections in 2015: We work on the assumption that any attempt to delay these could lead to a major constitutional crisis and radically alter political alignments. It is possible that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) could choose not to hold elections in states where the security situation prevents it; they are legally entitled to do so. Currently, three states (Borno, Yobe and Adamawa) in the North-East are under State of Emergency, although Yobe’s successful by-elections show that elections are not necessarily impossible under such conditions. Still, if elections were not held, it would not alter the conditions which we note as likely to lead to a Presidential run-off.

INEC’s commitment to running free and fair elections will remain the same, although the electoral commission remains restricted in some aspects of capacity and control, and local-level implementation varies. Recent trends such as decisions not to use electronic voting machines in Ekiti and Osun elections may cast doubt on this. Overall, INEC’s management of state elections has improved since Anambra in December 2013, but it remains to be seen if INEC can scale up the achievement to a national exercise. Improvements made in 2011 will remain and restrict rigging to the post-collation process: Whereas 2007’s poorly-run election allowed votes to be completely fabricated, registration and accreditation has since been tightened, so that the main avenues for rigging are more restricted to the use of actual voters, or at least their cards. This might mean renewed attempts to register voters fraudulently in order to increase numbers, but the only other avenue for outright rigging would be post-poll collation at local levels, which should therefore be a focus for observer groups.

2015 will be an overwhelmingly two-party race between the PDP and the APC in the Presidential elections: this currently seems self-evident, and the APGA and Labour parties are likely to support PDP. Presidential polls will take place before Governorship elections: as on previous occasions, this means that incumbent governors are influential in controlling the presidential vote. If the order were reversed, the rule may not hold true. The PDP candidate will be President Goodluck Jonathan, whereas the APC would likely select a Northern Muslim candidate: This is a fundamental assumption, and we can question whether voting patterns would still cleave to 2011’s alignments if the APC candidate was for instance from the South-West, or was a Northern Christian. Equally, there is the more remote possibility that the PDP may choose a different Presidential candidate.

Election security management will reflect that of 2011, in which security agencies were widely acknowledged to have improved their practices: Many new security challenges have evolved since 2011 but if the agencies can stick to their record of improvement, the environment may remain predictable. If not, or if attempted disruptions overwhelm them, the outcomes will be much less clear.

Unknown Factors
Turnouts are crucial but hard to predict. If a voter register is realistic, party mobilisation and levels of public interest in the candidates dictate the turnout. Anambra’s 2013 election, with a 25% voter turnout, offers a stark indicator of what happens when they are disinterested. Reports by civil society observers were that large numbers of residents stayed at home, or even sold their voter cards before election. Such low turnouts can favour riggers, as they allow lots of unused votes to be creatively redistributed, in front of a largely apathetic public which may not enthusiastically defend its mandate. And, as we have seen, incumbents have a greater ability to rig due to their control of resources and the environment.

As PDP are incumbent in more states, this might at first glance seem to favour that party more, but as there are a number of states in which the party may struggle to clear the 25% margin, low turnouts are a big risk for PDP too. Money is hugely important in politics, but is of limited use without genuine support. Paid-for support is expensive and unreliable, while dedicated support is more consistent (and cheaper). While incumbents may have more to spend, they may not necessarily have more to offer in mobilising voter enthusiasm. Historically, parties’ appeal to voters has been based on ethno-regional or faith identities, although the 1999 and 2007 elections broke a mould with three major parties (the PDP, ANPP and AD/ACN) all picking Southern Christian and later, Northern Muslim Presidential candidates respectively.

For 2015, parties have so far made little effort to formulate policy messages, and membership structures vary from very weak to strong between parties across the country. While the PDP has struggled to convince the electorate of its ability to deliver on key issues such as poverty reduction, security or combatting corruption, the APC’s positioning as a more progressive party has been watered-down by the large number of floor-crossers the party has incorporated and its tactic of negative campaigning has also alienated some potential supporters.
It will be interesting to see to what extent both parties are willing or able to mobilise voters with policy messages rather than simply appeals to identity politics.

The Numbers
The current political alignment of state government is as follows. Note that APGA and Labour Party states have tended to ally with the ruling PDP party.
People’s Democratic Party (PDP) – 20
All Progressives Congress (APC) – 14
All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) – 1
Labour Party (LP) – 1

...continue in next page.

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[size=20pt]Why President Jonathan Will Win In 2015[/size]
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Category: Backpage comment Published on Sunday, 07 September 2014 05:01
Written by • sonala.olumhense@gmail.com • Twitter: @SonalaOlumhense Hits: 473

President Goodluck Jonathan



With less than six months to Nigeria’s 2015 presidential contest, I predict that one Goodluck Ebele Jonathan will win it. He already holds the job, and many cite the power of incumbency to back up that belief. They are wrong; in a normal democracy, incumbency would be a serious handicap because the candidate can be handcuffed to his record. Not in Nigeria, and there are really two reasons Mr. Jonathan stands poised to take his third oath of presidential office next May. The first is that he is a man of great understanding. Mr. Jonathan understands that Nigeria is an abandoned project, literally and figuratively. Nigerians do not care. They do not care about themselves. And they care still less about Nigeria.

Nigerians are curiously insulted if you say something “negative” about someone of their ethnicity, but they do not react the same way if you insult Nigeria. Nigerians are more offended if you insult their government than they are if you insult their country. The same Nigerians are not offended when their government makes their country look like a bad joke. The second reason Mr. Jonathan holds the aces as we approach February 2015 is that Nigerians are very forgetful, and hate to question. A Nigerian reads the most scandalous story about Nigeria, and just shrugs. A Nigerian journalist leaves home for his journalism job, but gets there and becomes a civil servant. Since his ascendancy to the top of the ladder in 2007, Mr. Jonathan has reached this understanding. He has found Nigeria a boring and easy game anyone can do in their sleep, not the challenge he was hearing about on television. Most of all, the Nigeria ruler knows Nigerians are happy to keep Nigeria that way. This is why he is poised to win in 2015.

A few weeks ago, “Mr. Fix-It” Tony Anenih, who chairs the Board of Trustees of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) disclosed that Mr. Jonathan will run for office next year, a decision known only in the inner circles, and one the president ought to announce by himself.
That fact confirmed the power relations within the presidency, and the nature of Anenih’s presence in it. “Mr. Fix-It,” by the way, doubles as the chairman of the board of the Nigeria Ports Authority (NPA). The NPA and the Ministry of Petroleum Resources are reported to form a formidable power couple when it comes to financial backing for the president’s electoral ambitions. The Ministry, remember, has become the personal fiefdom of Diezani Alison-Madueke, the ethics of whom are routinely questioned by many Nigerians. But she is a pretty lady, and Mr. Jonathan does not argue with great beauty. Mr. Jonathan is poised to win in 2015 because the Nigerian people understand that he is their Master, in office to serve his own will. As a result, he is not answerable to the very people who put him in office.

Those people include the Boko-Haram abducted children of Chibok, in Borno State, who have become a byword for historic government irresponsibility. They and their suffering families are an abandoned project that would have embarrassed a military dictatorship. It is difficult to accept that the States of Borno, Adamawa and Yobe are under a state of emergency, given the success that the militants are enjoying there, treating Nigerian soldiers like amateurs. The military now appear lost…or abandoned. Last week, as official denials came to an end and the insurgents assumed firm control of Bama, soldiers were reported to be removing their families from Maiduguri, as Boko Haram distributed fliers announcing it intends to seize the city.

That is a good sign for Mr. Jonathan’s re-election. No, he did not create Boko Haram, but he has promised to deal with them. Earlier in August, he promised to “lead Nigerians” to defeat the militants. Those who were paying attention would have recognized the joke: In March 2012, in South Korea, he told the Yonhap News Agency he would end the Boko Haram challenge within three months, stressing that Nigeria’s security forces would take “total control” of the areas in contest. The August 2014 renewal of the joke is a punch in the nose for those who say Mr. Jonathan in military fatigues looks like a Nollywood actor. But he is deathly serious, reminding Nigerians that the problem with asking him to rescue the Chibok girls is that he is caught between using force and endangering their lives, or undermining the sovereignty of Nigeria by succumbing to the terms of the terrorists. He does not accept responsibility for letting the militants get away with 276 girls in the first place.
In other words, despite all the promises published so far, the abducted girls had better plan their own escape as some of them have done, or they are on their own. There is a presidential election to win.

Enthusiastic Nigerian voters will recall that in January 2011, the Presidential Advisory Committee, submitting its report, drew attention to ongoing and severe depletion of the country’s Excess Crude Account, from $20b in 2007 to under $400m in September 2010. The Theophilus Danjuma-led group criticized the alarming cost of running the government, citing “an army of special advisers and assistants.”
Mr. Jonathan promised to implement the committee’s recommendations, but just week after receiving its report, he appointed three new advisers. The signs of re-election come from as far back as the last election. As recorded by the International Press Centre in collaboration with the Institute for War and Peace, here are Mr. Jonathan’s 91 electoral promises from 2011. One week before his inauguration, in May 2011, I also documented “A Mountain Of Promises.” Next February, Nigerians will vote for Mr. Jonathan overwhelmingly, in exchange for a longer list of promises.

On July 14, 2011, six weeks after he assumed office, Mr. Jonathan said he was starting an anti-corruption “war,” beginning with a comprehensive audit of the financial transactions of all Federal Government ministries, departments and agencies and with effect from 2007. Abandoned. Beginning on January 8, 2011, the Abuja-based Leadership Newspaper ran a series it called, “Nigeria: The Country’s White Elephant Projects,” demonstrating just how pervasive uncompleted projects were at all levels of government. In a follow-up, two months later, Mr. Jonathan set up a Presidential Projects Assessment Committee to look into the issue of uncompleted federal projects. The group reported at least 11,886, with many more unidentified! Mr. Jonathan took the report, made suitable promises, and then abandoned the report.

I could carry on, for hours. The point was to demonstrate that Mr. Jonathan has all the credentials to be re-elected, easily, in 2015. It is an abandoned country, and the only thing Nigerians are prepared to do about it is abuse anyone who says they should do something about it.
Let us pray.
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[size=15pt]Cameroon kills 27 militants to save 480 Nigerian troops[/size]


Posted by: Joseph Jibueze, Owerri in Featured, News 6 hours ago

To protect the fleeing 480 Nigerian soldiers from harm, Cameroonian troops killed 27 suspected Boko Haram militants between Monday and Tuesday, the Cameroon State Radio said yesterday. The radio said the Cameroonian soldiers escorted their Nigerian counterparts back home after the Tuesday attack. It said Cameroonian soldiers killed the insurgents who attacked areas the Nigerian troops fled to during a battle with the militants. The Defence Headquarters (DHQ) in Abuja claimed that the troops “strayed” into Cameroon while making a “tactical maneouvre”.
Sixteen of the suspected insurgents, the radio said, were killed on Monday and the 11 others on Tuesday.
Cameroonian troops, the radio said, beat back two attempts by Boko Haram to enter the country’s northern territory through a locality sharing borders with Borno State. The troops seized heavy weapons and destroyed one of the vehicles the militants came with, the report added.


Following the attacks, President Paul Biya ordered that the Nigerian soldiers be escorted back home, the radio said. “The head of state has instructed that the columns of Nigerian soldiers who entered Cameroonian territory should be camped in specific locations and supervised by the Cameroonian army. The Nigerian soldiers have been provided feeding, medical treatment and fuel on instructions of the head of state.”
Colonel Didier Badjeck, a Cameroon military spokesman, told Voice of Africa (VOA) that allegations in Cameroonian media that the incidence was a defection were unfounded, adding that they were careful over the presence of the Nigerian soldiers as Boko Haram militants could also disguise as a regular army and attack them. He said people should allow the Cameroonian army to fight Boko Haram as professional soldiers.
The extent of the underfunding of the Nigerian military over the years was exposed yesterday.
Chairman, Senate Committee on Defence, Senator George Thompson Sekibo, said Nigeria is on the verge of disintegration, adding that the country requires drastic action to preserve its unity. According to him, the military is not only overstretched in dealing with insurgency, it is also grossly underfunded.


“I tell you as a politician and a lawmaker that I am seeing signs of disintegration of this country,” Sekibo said.
He spoke during a session by the Military Law Forum of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) at the 2014 Annual General Conference in Owerri, the Imo State capital. The theme was: ‘The Nigerian Armed Forces in Internal Security Operations: Between Law and National Security Imperatives’.

To Sekibo, a successful fight against insurgency will depend on how well the military is equipped, adding that Nigeria’s unity now primarily lies in the hands of the armed forces. “As chairman of Senate Committee of Defence, I can categorically say that our military is drastically under-funded. If you’re sending a man to go somewhere to fight, they cannot do with empty hands. “Our military is much overstretched. That makes me to ask: Is pipeline vandalism an internal security issue for the military to handle? Is oil theft an internal security issue for the military as well ethnic crisis? I don’t see any reason why if we adequately train the other para-military forces like the police, they cannot handle such issues.
“It means that we have to encourage the police and give them the relevant training so that they will be able to stop ordinary pipeline vandalism, oil theft and some of these smaller issues, so that the military can face major crisis, even though they are internal, and bring peace in our land.

“In this insurgency issue, if the perception of the people becomes stronger than what is happening, then destruction is imminent. For that not to happen, it is in the hands of the armed forces. They have to fight their best.
“They have to make sacrifices to make sure that the insurgents are brought to their knees. If the insurgents come on their knees and beg the country, then law and the armed forces have met properly,” he said.
Sekibo urged the military to put the people first, and not violate human rights in a bid to please the government.
“I think as a senator that the military is not the people’s military. The military is the government’s military. Unfortunately I’m saying so because I represent the people.
“I think that if the military is for the people, then it should be about the people’s protection first, before the nation’s protection. We must make our military the military of the people,” Sekibo said.
The Dean, Faculty of Law, University of Jos, Prof Joash Amupitan (SAN), said the police and other para-military agencies should be properly trained, equipped and motivated so as to minimise the army’s internal security responsibilities.
“A situation where the members of the Armed Forces are deployed in almost every state of the federation may be inimical to the country’s democratic processes.
“Since the Armed Forces and the police and other civil authorities are jointly involved in internal security operations, the time has come for the joint training of members of the Armed Forces and the police generally or on special mission,” Amupitan said.


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How to apply
Please send your cv to bilymuse@gmail.com with a cover letter stating exactly how you fit the position.

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Please send your cv to bilymuse@gmail.com with a cover letter stating exactly how you fit the position.

bilymuse: How to apply
Please send your cv to bilymuse@gmail.com with a cover letter stating exactly how you fit the position.

[size=20pt]Obasanjo Vs Jonathan: Now What?[/size]


A hunter with one arrow does not shoot without aiming[b][/b]. -Nigerian proverb

When the dust settles around the heat generated by President Obasanjo’s letter to President Jonathan, its full implications may become clearer. For a while, the nation will indulge in a favourite pastime: hitting out at everything except the real target. But sooner or later, the full significance of the assault on President Jonathan’s personal integrity, competence and even on the moral and ethical basis for his continuation as President by President Obasanjo will have to be faced. President Jonathan has bought a few days to prepare a response, although he may have mumbled some preliminaries at Obasanjo in a Nairobi Hotel during breakfast last week. Nigerians will get over the initial shock and skirmishes which have followed Obasanjo’s earlier letters, and face the cold reality that President Jonathan’s mentor, principal benefactor and former godfather now says he is not only unfit to govern, but that he is involved in raising killer squads against opponents.

Obasanjo’s record as a serial writer of scathing letters to former Heads of State will be exhumed by many to say he is playing true to character. That may take a little shine off his comprehensive assault on Jonathan, but it will not give the latter much relief. His role as the sole architect of the Yar’Adua/Jonathan presidency will be dug up and thrown at his face, and many Nigerians will remind him that the nation is merely reaping what he sowed. Indeed, the singular facilitation of a Jonathan presidency in 2011 which Obasanjo makes such song and dance about will be used to remind him of those days when he thought he had god-like powers. That will not teach Obasanjo humility, and it certainly will not help Jonathan. Even Obasanjo’s cupboard brimming with skeletons may be referred to, as a reminder that he stands on the same moral pedestal as Jonathan. This will not shame Obasanjo, and it will not take out a single skeleton out of Jonathan’s cupboard. Obasanjo The Brave will bask in the sun as Jonathan feels the venom of an adversary well versed in hitting when you are down.

Many Nigerian hearts will be further saddened that the nation has hit rock bottom, when Obasanjo mounts the pulpit to sermonize, in a public document, most of what everyone has always known. If anything comes out of Obasanjo’s provocation, not a few people will lose sleep over the fact that it took a letter from him to wake up a nation to the reality that it has been in a freefall for the last few years, and these will include much of his own second term. Some people would have preferred that General Yakubu Gowon and Alhaji Shehu Shagari had said what Obasanjo said. Or even Generals Babangida and Abdussalami and Danjuma. Or the Sultan and Cardinal Onaiyekan. Or all of them in one letter. Or fifty elders and leaders, the type of people who would have heard Speaker Tambuwal denounce the virtual endorsement by the President of corrupt acts; and read CBN Governor’s letter to the President on non-remittance of revenues from crude sales; and heard opposition governors allege massive diversions of public funds; and followed the damaging fights in the PDP; and noted the spectacular failure to contain a dangerous insurgency; and shared the nation’s alarm over the tensions which Jonathan’s 2015 plans are raising.

But it was President Obasanjo’s finely-honed instinct for opportunism that is grabbing the nation’s attention. Whatever the nation thinks of Obasanjo (and there will be no prizes for guessing that Obasanjo is on a self re-invention mission) it now has to deal with his opus on Jonathan. More to the point, President Jonathan has to deal with the most comprehensive case made against any claim he can make to being an asset to the nation. In one fell swoop, Obasanjo’s letter appears to put many people in trouble. He mentions other leaders by name as being privy to the most intimate details of the sorry state of Jonathan’s leadership. Now their silence will be louder and more damaging. He denounces members of Jonathan’s circle, (a few of which he said used to be in his own circle) as the architects and builders of a presidency that is impenetrable and corrupt. There must a few aides around President Jonathan who had also fraternized with Obasanjo asking if they are the evil he is referring to. Allegations that President Jonathan is raising a killer squad will put many senior security officials in a very uncomfortable spot. They will be hoping that they will not be challenged to say whether our President is training snipers for use against opponents, or whether a former Head of State and Commander-In-Chief is a liar; or that they really do not know.

President Obasanjo knows, however, that his letter was meant to fatally wound President Jonathan’s person and presidency. Stripped of all its pretensions of being an advisory, President Obasanjo said our President is unfit to continue to lead our nation. Not in 2015, but now. You do not catalogue damaging allegations of corruption, incompetence, inordinate and dangerous ambition, lack of will and a personal weakness which pervades the entire administration against a president, without implying that he is running the nation aground. Everything that can make that letter as damaging as it can be was done. He did not leak it; he splashed it. He invoked witnesses, so that the world will know he wasn’t alone in lamenting Jonathan’s stewardship. He dredged up everything, including casting doubts over the integrity of the national dialogue/conference, and telling Jonathan not to run in 2015.

President Jonathan can ignore Obasanjo, but that will be a very poor option. Even if he can ignore the allegations rehashed by Obasanjo, or acknowledge them as issues which could have been better presented by a former President, he cannot ignore the allegations that he is raising a killer squad against opponents. He will have to convince Nigerians that Obasanjo is lying, because this is one issue that will not go away. To do this, he has to take on President Obasanjo very aggressively, and pray that the wily old General does not have his facts; and will not activate his elaborate global connections if he perceives the slightest hint of strong arms from the presidency.

Then he has to decide whether he wants to deal with corruption in his corridors and the suffocating lack of openness and accountability over public finances, or just soldier on with the team which gives him his backbone, and gives his administration such a stench. Just removing a few of the ministers and aides the nation insists have soiled fingers will amount to a revolution by the standards President Jonathan set himself. But President Jonathan is not a revolutionary; and the nation will not be content with a token gesture to Obasanjo’s prodding. He could overhaul his party machinery, removing prominent irritants, but those who are defecting are doing so more as a result of his weakness than the powers of party functionaries. He could renounce his 2015 ambitions and cancel the national dialogue, but this will leave him in an even more vulnerable position. If he is not good enough to run again in 2015 on the basis of his record, why wait until then before he steps aside. A crippled presidency is a liability and a threat to the nation.

Obasanjo has left President Jonathan virtually no room for manoeuvre, except to do what he has always done, and pray that handlers and clan members will abuse and scare the rest of the nation into submission. He will certainly attempt some sort of a fightback, because he cannot ignore Obasanjo’s stranglehold, and he cannot retreat without exposing all his flanks. Fight back will involve digging in and insisting that he is on course. It may also involve taking on fresh adversaries and traditional foes who will attempt to follow through on Obasanjo’s major assault.
This will create a most damaging environment with an administration fighting for its life on all fronts, with every weapon at its disposal. If other leaders with any credibility have held back on joining the fray, they need to step toward now. The stakes are too high to leave this fight to Presidents Obasanjo and Jonathan.

http://dailytrust.info/index.php/columns/tuesday-columns/12433-now-what

hmm

[size=15pt]INVESTIGATION: 35 STATES CAN’T PAY SALARIES WITHOUT FEDERAL FUNDING[/size]

Only Lagos generates enough to stay afloat
Only one of the 36 states can afford to pay workers’ salaries with internally generated revenues, Daily Trust investigations revealed—underscoring the level of dependence of the federating units on the central government. The remaining 35 states generate only a fraction of funds they require to settle their wage bills annually. This means that without federal funds, these states cannot even afford salaries payment, not to talk of executing any projects.

Daily Trust obtained information on states’ wage bills and drew comparisons with data on their internally generated revenues (IGR), published by the National Bureau of Statistics. The result showed that onlyLagos State can pay salaries of its workers by solely relying on revenues generated internally.

None of the 19 Northern states has this much financial muscle. They all depend on federally-allocated subventions, mainly made up of funds generated from sales of crude oil that is extracted down south. Other components of the federal allocation, shared between the three tiers of government on monthly basis, include taxes collected by the Nigerian Customs Service and the Federal Inland Revenue Service. The data published by the statistics bureau showed that in 2010 and 2011, only seven states had IGR in two-digit billions. Lagos is the only one with a three-digit figure, while the remaining states had single digits.

In 2012, the situation improved slightly with 12 states recording double-digit figures in billions while Lagos remained the only with three-digit figures. The implication of the low revenue generation by the states is that most of them can barely sustain themselves without recourse to monthly federal subventions.

Most states have had to take short-term bank loans to settle wages whenever there were delays in the monthly disbursements by the Federation Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC). Speaking to Daily Trust on this, a revenue advocate said the state governments are simply too lazy to generate revenues internally because of the oil money they receive from Abuja every month.

Mr Dauda Garuba, coordinator of the Revenue Watch Institute, said “because of the oil revenue they collect monthly, state governors are no longer serious in making money for their states.”

High wage bills, low IGRs
Daily Trust investigations show that each of the 36 states pays yearly salaries in two-digit billions, but most of them generate IGR in single-digit billions annually. Lagos generated N219 billion in 2012, three times its annual wage bill of N76.5 billion. States that generated more than N10 billion in 2012 are Kano, Kaduna, Oyo, Ondo, Ogun, Enugu, Edo, Delta, Cross River and Akwa Ibom.

Among states with fairly strong revenue bases are Rivers, which generates the second highest IGR of N66.2 billion in 2012, but has an annual wages bill of N96 billion. Edo made N18.9 billion revenue but is weighed down by a salaries bill of N28 billion yearly, while Cross River generated N12.7 billion though it pays N22 billion wages annually.

Even though Kano has the highest IGR in the North, the N24 billion it generated in 2012 is not enough to pay salaries of its workers, which is N36 billion yearly. Kaduna, the second internal revenue earner in the North, garnered N11.5 billion but which is less than half its N27.4 billion annual wage bill. The situation with the remaining states is worse, as their annual wage bills are several times larger than their internally generated revenues.

For instance, Zamfara’s internally generated revenue is N2.5 billion in 2012, while its annual wage bill is N13.2 billion; Yobe generated N1.7 billion, and has a yearly salaries bill of N18 billion; while Adamawa’s N23 billion wage bill is five times higher than its IGR of N4.6 billion.
Even oil-rich Bayelsa State generated only N3 billion in 2011, but pays N48 billion in salaries yearly.

Nasarawa made N4.1 billion in 2012 but spends N24 billion yearly in salaries; Sokoto generated N3.8 billion in 2010 and spends N16.8 billion on annual wages; and Kogi got N3.1 billion in 2012 but it is workforce soaks up N44 billion yearly.

Kwara (salaries, N11 billion; revenue, N7.2 billion), Benue (revenue, N8.4 billion; salaries, N34.8 billion), Katsina (salaries, N14.4 billion; revenue, N5 billion), Bauchi (salaries, 26 billion; revenue, N4.1 billion), Ondo (revenue, N10.1 billion; salaries, N48 billion), Plateau (revenue, N7 billion; salaries, N20.7 billion), Kebbi (revenue, N5.4 billion; salaries N12 billion), Niger (revenue, N3.7 billion; salaries N31.2 billion), and Gombe (salaries, N14.4; revenue, N3.7 billion).

Others are Abia (salaries, N30 billion; revenue, N3 billion), Akwa Ibom (salaries, N33.2 billion; revenue, N13.5 billion), Anambra (revenue, N6.1 billion; salaries, N16.3 billion), Borno (salaries, N20.7 billion; revenue, N2.4 billion), Delta (revenue, N45.5 billion; salaries, N85.2 billion) and Ebonyi (salaries, N16.8 billion; revenue, N14 billion).

There are also Ekiti (salaries N24 billion, revenue N3.8 billion), Imo (revenue N6.8 billion, salaries N22.8 billion), Jigawa (salaries N33.5 billion, revenues N1.4 billion), Osun (salaries N22.8 billion, revenue N5 billion), Oyo (salaries N49 billion, revenue N14 billion), Taraba (revenue N3.4 billion, salaries N21.6 billion).

‘States are lazy’
Revenue Watch Institute coordinator Garuba said described the situation whereby states depend heavily on federal subventions as unfortunate because each state has the potential to sustain itself. “It is unfortunate that the governors, particularly in the North abandoned agriculture. Every state has the potential to be self-sufficient only if the chief executive knows what he is doing,” he said. “I still wonder why Niger and Nasarawa states can’t utilise their proximity to Abuja by creating mega cities in Zuba and Mararaba respectively. These places, if well planned, can rake in billions for the two states. But, go there, what you find is terribly unorganised slums,” Garuba added. He said that a recent report shows that “Yobe state alone can produce beans enough to supply the needs of West Africa. But look at it today, the state is engulfed in conflicts.”

{Additional reporting from Misbahu Bashir (Kaduna), Ismail Mudashir (Kano), Adamu Saleh (Gombe), Hope Abah (Makurdi), Lami Sadiq (Jos), Garba Muhammed (Birnin Kebbi), Shehu Umar (Gusau), Kabir Anwar (Yola), Rakiya Muhammed (Sokoto), Abdulkadir Badsha Mukhtar (Dutse), Hir Joseph (Lafia), Hamisu Kabir Matazu (Damaturu), Usman Bello (Lokoja), Aliyu Hamagam (Minna), Abdullateef Aliyu (Ilorin), Victor Edozie (Port Harcourt), Patrick Odey (Uyo), Bola Ojuola (Akure), Kehinde Akinyemi (Abeokuta), Chris Eze (Yenegoa), Femi Akinola (Lagos) & Hamisu Muhammad.}

http://dailytrust.info/index.php/top-stories/13252-i-n-v-e-s-t-i-g-a-t-i-o-n-35-states-can-t-pay-salaries-without-federal-funds

How to apply
Please send your cv to bilymuse@gmail.com with a cover letter stating exactly how you fit the position.

Sales Representative Required

Descrption
An online company based in Abroad, that sale fashion products and apparels required the service of a marketing rep / agent to develop new customer base in Nigeria. Such person must have OND or above, presentable, fluent in English, computer literate with a minimum of two year direct field sales / marketing experience.

The Position
-You will work with the sales manager to plan and implement a sales plan for the region, and achieve agreed sales targets.
-Identify new markets and prospective customers, building strong business relationships.
-Provide first class customer service and ensure all orders or potential issues are resolved to customers satisfaction.
-Report accurate sales analysis and budgets, monthly reports etc to Manager.
-Represent the organisation at trade shows as required

The Person
-Business to business sales experience is required.
-Strong commercial acumen.
-Effective time management and organisational skills.
-Strong verbal and written skills, with experience in negotiation and closing deals.

Remuneration
A fixed Salary, plus bonus and commission.

All applicant would undergo an initial phone assessment before being invited for a formal interview.

How to apply
Please send your cv to bilymuse@gmail.com with a cover letter stating exactly how you fit the position.

[size=20pt]Sales Representative Required[/size]

Descrption
An online company based in Abroad, that sale fashion products and apparels required the service of a marketing rep / agent to develop new customer base in Nigeria. Such person must have OND or above, presentable, fluent in English, computer literate with a minimum of two year direct field sales / marketing experience.

The Position
-You will work with the sales manager to plan and implement a sales plan for the region, and achieve agreed sales targets.
-Identify new markets and prospective customers, building strong business relationships.
-Provide first class customer service and ensure all orders or potential issues are resolved to customers satisfaction.
-Report accurate sales analysis and budgets, monthly reports etc to Manager.
-Represent the organisation at trade shows as required

The Person
-Business to business sales experience is required.
-Strong commercial acumen.
-Effective time management and organisational skills.
-Strong verbal and written skills, with experience in negotiation and closing deals.

Remuneration
A fixed Salary, plus bonus and commission.

All applicant would undergo an initial phone assessment before being invited for a formal interview.

How to apply
Please send your cv to bilymuse@gmail.com with a cover letter stating exactly how you fit the position.

Marketing Rep /Agent Required

An online company based in Abroad, that sale fashion products and apparels required the service of a marketing rep / agent to manage their activities in Nigeria. Such person must have OND or above, presentable, fluent in English, computer literate with a minimum of one year marketing experience. Such person, preferable should own a car. This position would fit people who are self motivated and fair well under pressure.

Remuneration
A fixed Salary, plus bonus and commission.

How to apply
Please send your cv to bilymuse@gmail.com with a cover letter stating exactly how you fit the position.

[size=20pt]Marketing Rep /Agent Required[/size]

An online company based in Abroad, that sale fashion products and apparels required the service of a marketing rep / agent to manage their activities in Nigeria. Such person must have OND or above, presentable, fluent in English, computer literate with a minimum of one year marketing experience. Such person, preferable should own a car. This position would fit people who are self motivated and fair well under pressure.

Remuneration
A fixed Salary, plus bonus and commission.

How to apply
Please send your cv to bilymuse@gmail.com with a cover letter stating exactly how you fit the position.

[size=15pt]My Nazi grandfather, Amon Goeth, would have shot me
Jennifer Teege[/size]


Jennifer Teege was shocked to discover her grandfather was the Nazi commandant of Plaszow concentration camp, Amon Goeth. Teege was born after her mother, Goeth's daughter, had a brief affair with a Nigerian student. She has just published a book, Amon My Grandfather Would Have Shot Me. This is her story.

Five years ago in northern Germany, in Hamburg, I was in the central library and I came across a book. It was wrapped in a red cover and for some reason I was immediately drawn to it.

The title, translated into English, was I Have to Love My Father, Right? and it had a small picture of a woman on the front who looked faintly familiar.

So I took the book and quickly went through it. There were a lot of photos and as I looked at the book I felt something was wrong.



Teege's grandfather Amon Goeth and her mother Monika Hertwig
At the end, the author summed up some details about the woman on the cover and her family, and I realised they were a perfect match with what I knew about my own biological family.



Commandant at the Plaszow concentration camp near Krakow from 1943 to 1944
Tried before the Polish Supreme Court and sentenced to death for the mass murder of Jews
Hanged in Krakow in 1946
Character played by Ralph Fiennes in the film Schindler's List
So at that point I understood that this was a book about my family history.

The woman in the picture was my mother, and her father was Amon Goeth, the commandant of Plaszow concentration camp near Krakow.

My mother had told me nothing, but I did not grow up with my mother - she gave me up as a very small child.

A few weeks after I was born I was put in a children's home where I sometimes saw my mother. Then I grew up in a foster family that adopted me when I was seven years old. So I saw my mother until the age of seven but after that we had no contact - except for once.

This was when I was in my 20s and she probably did not tell me anything at this point because she wanted to protect me - she thought it would be better if I did not know about my real past, about the truth, about my family, about my grandfather.


I was completely shocked when I found out - it was like the carpet was ripped from under my feet.

I couldn't do anything. I went home, I took the book with me, and at home I read it cover to cover. There were details about my mother, my grandmother and my grandfather, Amon Goeth.

I slowly started to understand the impact of what I had read. Growing up as an adopted child I did not know anything about my past, or only very very little. Then to be confronted with information like this was so overwhelming.

It was weeks, a month, until I really started to recover.

I had seen the film Schindler's List, in which Ralph Fiennes plays my grandfather. I knew he was playing a man called Goeth but I had not made the connection - it never occurred to me that we were related.

Ralph Fiennes as Amon Goeth
Ralph Fiennes as Amon Goeth in Schindler's List


I think if I had known all of this when I was younger, it would have been easier because I would have had a chance to integrate it into my life. Getting the information so spontaneously, so out of the blue, it was almost impossible to make it fit in with my understanding of who I am.

Continue reading the main story
Find out more

Jennifer Teege spoke to World Update on the BBC World Service.
More from World Update
More from the BBC World Service
It was very distressing to know that Amon Goeth and I are genetically linked. I feel part of it, but still there is a distance - which is a difference between me and my mother, because she grew up with her own mother (with my grandmother) and for her it was difficult to leave the past behind.

I have tried not to leave the past behind but put it in a place where it belongs, which means not to ignore it, but not to let it overshadow my life.

I am not a reflection of this part of my family story but I am still very connected to it. I try to find a way to integrate it into my life.

It is a story that is very unique and very unusual, and a story that has a deeper meaning. It is more about the universal question of how to deal with the weight of the past on the present - and it should show that it is possible to gain personal freedom from the past.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-24347798

[size=18pt]Nigerian students 'trash' embassy in Moscow over grants[/size]
[size=15pt]16 Nigerian students detained[/size]


Moscow police have detained 16 Nigerian students accused of smashing furniture inside their country's embassy, reportedly in anger over unpaid grants.

The 16 suspects were removed from the embassy building at the request of Nigerian staff, Russia's interior ministry told local media.

All of them are enrolled at colleges of higher education in Russia, it added.

Other African students in Russia have protested in the past over their home countries' failure to pay their grants.

The 16 students arrested in Moscow face administrative charges, the interior ministry said.

Trouble erupted at the embassy on Malaya Nikitskaya Street following a hearing for the students over their financial problems, according to a police source quoted by Ria-Novosti news agency.

Furniture was smashed in the reception room, after which the students reportedly threatened to damage the embassy's other rooms.

Last year, Nigerian students beat up an embassy representative over non-payment of grants, Russia's lenta.ru news website reports.

Thousands of African students have passed through the educational system in Moscow and other Russian cities in a tradition dating back to Soviet times, when the communist government subsidised their studies.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24346366

[size=20pt]Biafra Republic Would be a Failure[/size]




The average Igbo man lacks the social components to sacrifice himself for the greater good of the society. He is a ruthless capitalist that worship money and cares about nobody. In the north we have the Boko Haram sacrificing themselves for what they believe. South South; Isaac Boro, Ken Saro Wiwa, Niger Delta militant fought and paid the ultimate price. South west - Awo, Opc , June 12 , Soyinka, some of them fought and paid the ultimate price. The Igbos have no leader ready to put his life on line.

Ojukwu, their so called hero is a betrayal and a coward. After leading a rebellion that led to the death of millions of people, the coward scampered for safety at the end of the war. He came back from his self imposed exile, after collecting bribe from NPN government; He got his properties back, got his rank in the Army restored, and married the most beautiful girl in the land. Former Biafran Army officers never got their rank restored, other handicapped veterans wallow in poverty and beg in the street, While most Igbos never got their properties back. Ojukwu never cares nor fought for anybody, He represent the quintessential Igbo leaders: self centred and capitalist to the core.

Any minority group who joined Biafra is committing suicide. They would be marginalised socially, politically and economically in Biafra. In Onitsha market, you would not find a single store owned by non Igbo; the same is true in Ariaria Market, and all markets in lenght and breath of Igbo land. But the same Igbo traders would come to your market and dominate. In Lagos, Kano, Port-Harcourt, the Igbo people dominate the market. The Igbos would not allowed you into their market, and would come and dominate your market. Any minority who joined Biafra are going to face the same scenario; ruthlessly marginalised.

Biafra is going to be a failure because most of the Igbo leaders are self centred and capitalist who cares about nobody except themselves.


Ikpe mara eziokwu na aka azu diya

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If some people can be clapping and cheering while the security agents are being attacked, then FG is in serious trouble. It simply means Boko Haram has a wide grassroots support.

[size=15pt]African viewpoint: Defending Nigeria's police and army[/size]


Boko Haram

That brings me home to the bloodbath in northern Nigeria, where the security forces are battling Islamist militants from the Boko Haram group.
Young girls walk past a burnt vehicle in Nigeria's Damaturu town in Yobe state on 7 November Islamist militants have carried out a spate of attacks in northern Nigeria

On Friday, the spokeswoman of the State Security Service gave a chilling report on television of how some youths were "clapping and cheering as miscreants were attacking and killing security agents" in Yobe state - where Boko Haram carried out bomb and gun attacks on churches and the police headquarters, leaving more than 60 people dead.

It seemed to the police spokeswoman that, on that occasion, Nigerians cherished football more than human life.

She warned of the extreme danger of Nigerians frustrating or demoralising law-enforcement agents rendering a legitimate service.

In the US and UK, the military and police are also accused of committing abuses - but they are still respected for their overall professionalism and service to the nation.

The average Nigerian police constable, soldier or other security operative may not have attained UK and US levels of professionalism but they can only be as effective as the nation and government allows them to be.

Surely, they will not become better when we start killing them or cheering those who do.

Remember, we cannot do without them.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15720472

@Goddex, Beaf
People like Goddex and Beaf are clowns

Beaf has consistently shown himself to be empty sycophant, ever ready to back his ultimate master: Retardeen.

[size=20pt]Media outfit offers N1m for ‘shit story’[/size]


Meanwhile, After excreting three times in seven days under strict surveillance and without any trace of hard drug in the excreta of a popular Nigerian comedian, Babatunde Omidina a.k.a Baba Suwe, Image Merchant Promotion, a publishing outfit in Abuja, is offering the artiste a sum of N1 million for an exclusive right to his story that is widely referred to as “expensive shit of Baba Suwe.”

The Chief Executive of the organisation, which also publishes the Economic Confidential magazine, Hajia Sikrat Yushau, in a statement issued by McDonald Koiki, Associate Editor of the magazine, said the gesture was to provide detailed information on the experience and trauma the comedian went through during the saga.

The media outfit noted that the controversy over the case of the artiste was important to the public, as his continued detention had generated a lot of debate in both the economic and entertainment sectors.

“Not minding other interest


http://tribune.com.ng/index.php/front-page-news/29977-baba-suwe-to-slam-n1bn-suit-on-ndlea-as-continued-detention-raises-concern-media-outfit-offers-n1m-for-shit-story-as-elesho-pleads-for-his-release

[size=20pt]Baba Suwe to slam N1bn suit on NDLEA[/size]


YORUBA movie actor, Babatunde Omidina, also known as Baba Suwe, is planning to file a N1 billion suit against the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) over his arrest and detention.

Baba Suwe was arrested by the NDLEA on October 12 at the Murtala Muhammed International Airport, Ikeja, Lagos and is still being detained.

The NDLEA had alleged that the 53-year-old actor had ingested substances suspected to be hard drugs, but there has been no evidence to substantiate the claim, even after the suspect has defecated thrice under close observation.

His lawyer, Mohammed Bashir, told the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) in a telephone interview, on Wednesday, that a fundamental rights enforcement suit would be filed on his behalf within the next five days.

Bashir said: “We will be filing the suit before a Federal High Court in Lagos between now and Monday.

“We will be asking for N1 billion as compensation for damages suffered by him due to his illegal arrest and detention, as well as the embarrassment and defamation done to his reputation as a result of the incident.”

The lawyer further told NAN that NDLEA officials had prevented him from meeting physically with Baba Suwe since his arrest a week ago.

“I have visited the place twice since he was detained but was turned back and prevented from seeing my client. This denial of access to my client is another violation of his fundamental human rights,” Bashir said.

Despite the fact that the ace actor had excreted three times without any trace of drug found, the NDLEA said Baba Suwe would still continue to remain under its observation until he makes the fourth excretion.


http://tribune.com.ng/index.php/front-page-news/29977-baba-suwe-to-slam-n1bn-suit-on-ndlea-as-continued-detention-raises-concern-media-outfit-offers-n1m-for-shit-story-as-elesho-pleads-for-his-release

[size=20pt]Baba Suwe excretes again, yet no drug found[/size]

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Written by Shola Adekola and Sade Oguntola
Wednesday, 19 October 2011
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THE popular Yoruba actor, Babatunde Omidina, also known as Baba Suwe, has made his third excretion but still without any hard drug found.

Baba Suwe, who is spending his ninth day in the custody of the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) was arrested at the Murtala Muhammed International Airport, Lagos on his way to Paris, France, last Wednesday on the suspicion of ingesting drug.

The actor had earlier made two excretions without any trace of drug, even as it continued to detain him in its custody, on the excuse that due process needed to be followed.

According to the media officer of the NDLEA, Mitchelle Ofoyeju, Baba Suwe would still remain in the custody under observation.

“I can confirm that Baba Suwe is still under observation. He excreted for the third time last night and no drug was found. But he remains under observation.

“It will not end at the third excretion, because it depends on body composition. For some people, it takes more time, more excretions. It really depends on the body of each individual,” he said.

Meanwhile, experts have raised concern over claims by the NDLEA that Baba Suwe had excreted three times in seven days without a trace of hard drugs in his stool.

A consultant paediatric surgeon, Dr Taiwo Lawal, said if by the seventh day Baba Suwe was yet to pass any trace of hard drug, there was the reason to doubt the initial claim of the agency.

According to him, there was really nothing suspicious in a person using the toilet twice in seven days, since the time lag between passage of waste varied.

Dr Lawal said what would have been worrying was if the ace comedian did not use the toilet during his seven days sojourn with the NDLEA, adding that if there was any hard drug on him, by now he must have started showing symptoms.

http://tribune.com.ng/index.php/news/29895-baba-suwe-excretes-again-yet-no-drug-found

[size=20pt]Baba Suwe excretes again, yet no drug found[/size]

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Written by Shola Adekola and Sade Oguntola
Wednesday, 19 October 2011
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THE popular Yoruba actor, Babatunde Omidina, also known as Baba Suwe, has made his third excretion but still without any hard drug found.

Baba Suwe, who is spending his ninth day in the custody of the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) was arrested at the Murtala Muhammed International Airport, Lagos on his way to Paris, France, last Wednesday on the suspicion of ingesting drug.

The actor had earlier made two excretions without any trace of drug, even as it continued to detain him in its custody, on the excuse that due process needed to be followed.

According to the media officer of the NDLEA, Mitchelle Ofoyeju, Baba Suwe would still remain in the custody under observation.

“I can confirm that Baba Suwe is still under observation. He excreted for the third time last night and no drug was found. But he remains under observation.

“It will not end at the third excretion, because it depends on body composition. For some people, it takes more time, more excretions. It really depends on the body of each individual,” he said.

Meanwhile, experts have raised concern over claims by the NDLEA that Baba Suwe had excreted three times in seven days without a trace of hard drugs in his stool.

A consultant paediatric surgeon, Dr Taiwo Lawal, said if by the seventh day Baba Suwe was yet to pass any trace of hard drug, there was the reason to doubt the initial claim of the agency.

According to him, there was really nothing suspicious in a person using the toilet twice in seven days, since the time lag between passage of waste varied.

Dr Lawal said what would have been worrying was if the ace comedian did not use the toilet during his seven days sojourn with the NDLEA, adding that if there was any hard drug on him, by now he must have started showing symptoms.

http://tribune.com.ng/index.php/news/29895-baba-suwe-excretes-again-yet-no-drug-found

[size=20pt]Baba Suwe excretes again without any drug[/size]

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Written by Shola Adekola, Lagos
Sunday, 16 October 2011
The popular Yoruba comic actor, Alhaji Omidina Babatunde otherwise known as Baba Suwe who is being held at the custody of the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) yesterday made his second excretion without any trace of drug found.

Yesterday excretion has made it the second Baba Suwe has excreted since his arrest by the anti-narcotic agency.

Sources in the NDLEA said even though no drug has been found in the excretion he passed out that the actor will still remain in the agency’s custody until they are convinced otherwise.

When asked what the agency should no drug is still found on him, the source said the Yoruba actor will be left off the hook.

While saying Baba Suwe is still a suspect up till now, the NDLEA source lamented that the media should be blamed for blowing open the case while it was still under investigation.

According to the source, ordinarily, the anti-narcotic agency will never make open to the public any case under investigation until such has been proven.

There has been conflicting reports on the true position of things with the ace actor with a section of the media reporting on Saturday that Baba Suwe made the first excretion on Friday while others said he was yet to.

The Sunday Tribune has however gathered that the excretion he passed out on Friday and yesterday did not contain any drug.

When asked when the actor will likely be released, the NDLEA source said there was no time yet as he will still continue to remain in the custody of the agency.

The ace actor was to board an Air France flight to Paris at about 10pm on Wednesday October 12, 2011 at the Murtala Mohammed International Airport (MMIA) Lagos when he was arrested on the suspicion that he carried drug.


http://tribune.com.ng/sun/news/5350-baba-suwe-excretes-again-without-any-drug