₦airaland Forum

We are making money this year.

veecovee:
I was shocked by the performance of sterling and Skye those days

Could wema and fcmb be among the surprises . Do I load more house

Fidelity and FCMB will do the wonder but their price need to come down a little, to present a better chance. Any bear present again which will likely take place next/upper week will usher in the wonderful opportunity. Their current price are relatively high. For dividend hunters Zenith, Julius berger, UBA are best.

onegentleguy:
Of course the impact from dilution after inculcating existing DIAMOND bank shareholders should naturally impact ACCESS' EPS, ROE and EM. However, the degree or extent of that impact would largely depend on how well the management of the bank can drive for a better PRIFIT MARGIN going forward.
There'll be a sense of urgency to be far more effective and efficient in driving that line, otherwise ur guess will be as good as mine !!

On the issue of dividend, am of the view that ACCESS may not pay any dividend for FY 2018. But even if they will, I believe that the amount declared will likely come in lower than that of FY 2017. This should be the right thing to do. ...especially when u consider the fact that the bank is also looking to raise 2 trench of funds via rights.

It is however important to note that their FY 2018 dividend declaration will most likely exclude the current DIAMOND bank stakeholders who make it to the sealing of the merger deal. This is because the financial print for FY 2018 will likely be released before the merger deal is sealed.(I expect the managers of access to smartly tour that line)
So if I were a dividend drive investor, I'd look the way of other members of the 'fugaz family' particularly UBA and ZENITH.
I however believe that the possibility of a better ROI drive(via capital appreciation) is more with some of the banks in the tier 2 space. ...I have since highlighted a few of them here.

But then again, this should NOT be infered as any sought of recommendation. ...pls do well to read through my signature below.

Regards.

Exactly, nice one my good friend Onegentleguy.

onegentleguy:
I do not think the bolded in ur post will hold my dear.
...the deal will most likely sail through. As we speak, it has an 88% chance of actualization !!
Now if u got a complete grasp of the content of the post above(read btw the lines), then u ought to know how the entities in this merger deal should play out with respect to each another.
As long as the terms of this deal is concerned, have this at the back of ur mind:

1) Any rise/increment in the market price of ACCESS will most probably reflect or bring about an even bigger rise in the price of DIAMOND.
Because as the price of ACCESS increases, the RELATIVE price of DIAMOND(what diamond should sell relative to access) should gap up to create the needed equilibrium in their price relation. ...by given rise to a higher pre merger discount from the N3.13 merger face value of DIAMOND.
Here the probability of occurrence is near 1.

2) Any rise/increment in the market price of DIAMOND ought to reflect or MIRROR a drop in the price of ACCESS. ...because as the price of DIAMOND increases, the RELATIVE price of ACCESS(what access should sell relative to diamond) should drop. ...until in principal, the price of DIAMOND equates the merger valuation of N3.13 and creates the needed equilibrium.
Again the probability of occurrence here is also near 1.

Both cases are practical pre merger possibility.
From 1, u do not need a soothsayer to tell u that traders and investors alike will likely key into any drop in the price of DIAMOND on the back of any rise in the price of ACCESS. ...while from 2, it can be deduced that folks will also likely key in MORE in DIAMOND if any rise in it does not reflect a corresponding drop in the relative price of ACCESS(or if the price of access gaps up as diamond increases)

So it makes sense to believe that in the short term, DIAMOND could maintain more BUY pressure while ACCESS might experience more SELL pressure.
This is why I still maintain that pre merger DIAMOND wins while ACCESS is subdued, while post merger ACCESS 'resurrects' !! ...unless of course an equibruim is achieved in their relative merger price before the deal is sealed.
It is not for nothing that ACCESS has witnessed a downside pressure(dropping from a high of near N9), while downside pressure still persist.
It is also not for nothing that DIAMOND has commanded a bullish territory while ACCESS has maintained a relatively indifferent one.

My advise: 'Be DIAMOND' in the short term, and look out to 'ACCESS ur way through' in the mid to long term !!

CAVEAT: Just a guide... not an recommendation.
Due diligence still applies.

You made a very good point, I also agreed that they deal has gone up to 88%, but remaining 12% should not be write off, they will still get their shareholders approval in their coming general meeting before the deal will be sealed. In Nigeria the more one look, the less he/she see.

We should not rule market manipulators out, before the deal, access bank and their directors seems to have some stake in Diamond bank, and should government revoke diamond bank license like that of Skye bank, it will affect their stake.

They might make the deal look real to buy more time for diamond bank to survive, and bail out to those believing that the deal will go through, and once diamond bank release a little good result in their 2018 final year, they will collapse the deal and Defend Diamond bank price not to go below #1 again.

But if the deal is sealed,
1. what will be your thought towards increase in the number of their existing outstanding share through the right issue, and adding of constructed diamond bank share to the existing share of Access bank?
2. Will it not affect their EPS, and price?
3. Will they still give a reasonable dividend this year?

currentprice:
do u think access will remain at 4/5 when uba and fbn rise to 10?

That time they will move to 7 other stocks will also move with better percentage

Mpeace:
Diamond will clean up its books before the merger. Have you seen Unity bank result? 0%NPL. They will write off the NPLs. That is why it is expected that Diamond bank will release it's worse ever result(the impairment will be massive).
Only time will tell Sha.

Access bank with this their acquisition move will not be a good buy for Short term, but for a long term if all things been equal. After acquisition of Diamond bank, their total outstanding share will increase, after right offer, the share will increase again, the implication is that earning per a share ( EPs) will fall greatly, if their outstanding share double times two after reconstruction of diamond bank share and adding it to Access together with right issue, their earning per a share will drop by half. This will affect their share price.

maishai:
MAKE ACCESS no over do o! The way they are looking at ATM charges to generate other NON Interest Income will just chase away this retail customers that has been the beckon of Diamond bank......The way access is fuming Something tells me that it would probably be fidelity that would benefit most from this merger.........

Access after this their deal, it will really take them time to bounce back, if at all they will see their former position. Diamond bank, started going down when they started releasing bad result, their last year result was poor, going by their EPs, after merging what will really add value to their company and increase their EPs? They might witness what Oando witnessed. Oando would have been selling above their current price if not because of blind deal they went into. ( Acquisition of Conoco Phillips)

Yayira:
Menh back to the big boys ni oo
At least one can peacefully leave cash with them..
But I’ll be going for a big boy with online trading Not that yeye FBNQUEST

CSL are fully into online trading, with show of bid and offer price/quantity.

Northeastern:
I am moving my funds after elections. These ones cannot come and be playing with me like that. I cannot be using Polaris and you expect me to pay .50%

Morgan is still referencing 1.35% while the reality is commisions are now negotiable. All PFA trades are done at .20% and most FP trades are also done at the .20% level. So, transaction costs are on the downward trajectory, you cannot raise people's expectation and later dash it, it will be looked upon as a disappointment even when the new rate is still below what most firms charge for trades.

This their writeup is slow sha, you appear on top ten because of the low commission. Since you've decided to increase your commission by 100%, your volume and value of trades will also drop.

Hope, it's not because we are praising them. If they review their commission and it becomes high, I will move away from them.

Valueinvestor:
Not surprising, they have never been fantastic when it comes to payment of dividends, moreover, they already have plans of reducing cash payments in form of dividends https://www.google.com/url?q=https://businesspost.ng/2018/11/29/access-bank-may-reduce-dividend-payment-to-stay-afloat/&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwjQkL2Qn_DfAhXKbVAKHURJB2gQFjAAegQIBBAB&usg=AOvVaw3x9yEZ6vtUJmsuBCbX2PnC

All these will keep their price down for some time, the bank might visit #3 in the near future, with the increase of number of outstanding share after successful merger and offering of right issue.
Oando deal comes to mind.

Merger: CBN, SEC grant approval in principle to Access, Diamond Banks ON JANUARY 15, 20193:29

Access Bank and Diamond Bank Plc have obtained approval in principle from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Securities
and Exchange Commission (SEC) on proposed merger plans. Mr Victor Etuokwu, Access Bank Executive Director, Personal Banking, said in Lagos that CBN and SEC had granted both banks approval in principle for the merger process. Etuokwu said that the banks were awaiting the final approval which would be granted after convening shareholders meeting. “So far, we have gotten approvals up to approval in principle.

There are three approvals that we need for this process. “The first one is the pre-order approval which is like the first approval, the next approval is the approval in principle. “The final approval comes after approval in principle and it will come after you have convened your shareholders meetings,’’ Etuokwu said. He said that the banks would convene shareholders meetings in February, noting that the approval would be taken to court once approved by the shareholders.

Etuokwu said all the processes including final approval would be completed in the next 60 days. He said that the new bank would remain committed to retail and corporate banking to drive financial inclusion for desired growth and development. “We need to invest in retail market to drive economic growth, this is what the new bank will do, a strong corporate and a strong retail bank,’’ he said. On staff retrenchment, Etuokwu said that members of staff would be retrained for different roles in case of overlapping. “Staff will be retrained for new roles where there are overlaps, one of the branches can be converted to an e-branch or Automated Teller Machine (ATM) gallery,’’ he added.

Mr Robert Giles, in charge of Retail, Diamond Bank said that integration of both banks had commenced for seamless service delivery. Giles said that ATMs of both banks could be used by customers at no cost, noting that they were committed at taking costs away from customers. Mr Herbert Wigwe, Access Chief Executive Officer, at a joint news conference recently said it had already finalised terms and obtained regulatory approvals for a Tier II capital issuance to raise 250 million dollars available for draw down in January 2019.

He said that the bank had also obtained “No Objection’’ from the CBN to undertake a Rights Issue to raise up to N75 billion or 207 million dollars in the first half of 2019. Wigwe said that shareholder approvals and other regulatory approvals to that effect would be obtained before the offer opens. He noted that the fund-raising exercise would accelerate the capital management plan to support retail growth previously set out in the bank’s five-year strategy. Wigwe said that the bigger entity was ready to absorb the staff of Diamond Bank at the completion of the deal by end of Jun, without any disengagement. (NAN)

Read more at: https://www.vanguardngr.com/2019/01/merger-cbn-sec-grant-approval-in-principle-to-access-diamond-banks/

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2019/01/merger-cbn-sec-grant-approval-in-principle-to-access-diamond-banks/

It's becoming clear that Access bank will complete the acquisition procedure of Diamond bank. In 3 stages of approval, they have pass 2, remaining 1. And they will also go for right issue

That should be one of the reason, Diamond bank tested 2.10.
Short time Disadvantages of this acquisition to Access bank are:
1. It will affect payment of their final year dividend. Shareholders might witness denial of final year dividend since they are talking of right issue, they might not pay dividend to their share holders, or they will pay little.
2. As soon as they merge, the number of their outstanding share will increase, and will increase further after their right issue. This will greatly affect their EPS, Their eps will fall by 60/70%, Flour mill comes to mind after their last right issue. This will still affect their stock price .

https://oilprice.com
Brent crude oil price has gone below 60 dollars which is our budget benchmark, and if goes down more it will affect the oil stocks

I uses CSL, Morgan Capital, Standard Union. CSL charges 3% in both buying /selling and uses real time online trading, and Morgan uses real time online trading too. Morgan has better feature in their online trading than CSL, sometime CSL misbehave. Like one may place an order and cancel it, the money will hang till the next day, but Morgan capital drop down to your account ready to be use the next second.
Both show offer and bid quantity and price.
I prefer Morgan because, at 3% gain in any stock I purchase using Morgan, am making 1.5% gain if I should sell at that price ( 1.5% of #10 million is #150,000). But with CSL or any other stockbrokers, at 3% no gain added.

Northeastern:
http://www.nse.com.ng/dealing-members/member-performance/top-10-brokers-performance

Open the folder for December 2018

That nice

pluto09:
It is not only about cheap thing.....quality of service is very important.
How many high net worth individuals and corporate bodies are using morgan ?

What makes an individuals high net worth? When I search the net worth of Google cofounder, it was almost 50 billion at age of 45, and African richest drop down to 10 billion, glo boss move up to 9 billion.

Modern days technology makes people richer. With Morgan capital market exposure, we will soon make African Forbes list. With Morgan capital small percentage charge, it will soon make them highest customers holders, and make them number one stockbroking company in Nigeria. They keep getting customers on daily basis, with everyday trading commission which will make them stand tall, because stock traders uses them on every trading section. Other stockbroking house eyes will open the day Morgan will take first.

mendes911:
Clean slate ko, clean slate ni. Tell that to those that bought DF at ₦14.00 and are still holding on.

Runs Away!

Thank God for Quarterly report, any stocks that perform below expectation will pay for it, also any stock that perform wonderfully well will be rewarded.

I remember good final year result 2017 sent Dangoteflour to #16, but 2018 q1,2,3 below expectation result brought their price down. Which some of us knows that it will definitely happen.

Like for instance, many here are investing in Zenith bank because they performed well with their EPS of about #6. Any day their EPs drops to below 50 kobo, in q1,2, 3 and 4, the reformed investors will start to bail out, till they return back again to a good profit making EPS.
Julius berger comes to mind

If I am in any company in this modern age stock participation, and company perform woefully in their, q1, 2 and 3, I don't need any prophecy to bail out, I will peaceful bail out and enter undervalued stocks that perform wonderfully.

Yayira:
Morgan dey help our ministry but one has to be careful leaving cash in their account..
I prefer brokers that are subsidiary of a bank but they charge too much!

http://www.nse.com.ng/dealing-members/find-a-dealing-member

But since they are licensed by NSE/SEC, I hope there is nothing much to fear, hope very soon other stockbrokers will reduce their commission percentage fee, Morgan compared to some other stockbrokers is like modern days GSM and landline.

I remember what I pass through trying to dematerialize my share certificate using CSL stockbrokers in the of using big stockbroking firm, with pompous nature of their staff those days, after months without taking any serious action, I recalled back the cert and sent it to Standard Union Security, and my cert was dematerialize without waste of time.

Flattino:
There’s no charges to open account. But stockbrokers set their minimum amount you must have before they can open for you and it differs.
For example
Stanbic IBTC is 5 million naira, while investment-One is zero naira .
Then , see the general buy and sell transaction charges below .
Some stockbrokers charge lower though.

That is 2.7% for both buying and selling, while Morgan capital charges 1.5 for both buying and selling.
In using Morgan one will always get additional of 1.2% in buying and selling transaction ahead of 2.7.

1.2% of 10 million naira transaction is #120,000.

Mcy56:
Disconnection again.
Make all of una go house, just assume market no dey today...but the bull seems thirsty to come back.

Exactly, market start tomorrow.

MESSAGE FROM MORGAN CAPITAL
Consequent upon the downtime on
NSE trading engine today, the Exchange has extended trading
session till 3:30pm. However, our platform might
automatically disallow trading activities after
2:30pm, but
mandates(buy/sell) can be sent directed to
info@morgancapitalgroup.com within the next one hour
so as to key in your mandate via our trading
engine.  Thank you for choosing

Michael11stock:
If my children should ask me, daddy what was your greatest regret? I would tell them not following my instinct to bail out from transcorp to buy Diamond bank when it was 0.68kobo. By now I for don move to our new house from the proceed buy new car on top too

Lol.
What if you had enter and it goes the way of Skye bank? There is nothing to regret only wish those in the bus happy survival. Who knows what most of them pass through when diamond bank locked up and was seriously heading to kilometer 20 kobo, before Access bank came for rescue mission, by sacrificing their own blood from 8 to 5.

To be frank, there are abundant opportunities in NSE, which will last between now and February.

Yayira:
Chi I’ll advise you, outside this forum please mind how to talk about politics.. Avoid it completely if possible..I’ve seen things happen to people.. let whoever you want to win or will be voting for be a secret..
I can not come and be sending you eye drops from Ghana after somebody blow your eye oo

There is God

Mcy56:
Chai! This is not necessary dear.
Your blood too dey hot when it comes to politics o.
I mentioned election in relations to the prediction that stock prices will fall seriously and was just looking at it from the perspective that there might not be violence as envisaged.
Please let's tolerate ourselves and maintain decorum here. Thanks.

Thanks for your observation.

Please help me view his profile post, I am 100% sure, he did not belong here, because all his post never have anything to do with stock.

Alepa:
Ok. So you prefer that no armed forces should be deployed to curb any act of violence?
Pmb has said he personally instructed the forces to deal ruthlessly with anyone that tries any form of rigging or nonsense at any level!
And only someone or a group of people planning evil things ahead of the elections will not be comfortable with that .

I beg you in the name of God, go to politics section were you rightful belong. You keep on dragging us into politics. You are fond of jumping on the neck of anyone in this section, that wanted to pass a message concerning stocks, and mixed it together with a little economy statement that has political link up.

Friends, help cross check Alepa profile post, you will agree with me that he has not contributed anything in this our section that has something to do with stocks, but he is all for politics.

If he claim to have interest in stock, please help me beg him to stop dragging us into politics, yes he might be Buhari or Atiku supporter, but there is right section for that.

This is purely for stock pick, which include recommendations, like stocks to buy, hold, accumulate and sell.

This section is for mature mind, that does not use insult languages.

My interest is for bull to take a center stage in NSE at the end of this 2019 election, whether Incumbent President lose the election or win, let God that's knows tomorrow through the people best need, give us the best president come 2019. Anyone can win but let it be the will of God. And he that can move our economy to a positive direction.

https://oilprice.com
Hope brent crude oil price will find support at 60 dollar, after climbing from 50 to 60, since yesterday I notice some reversal movement, Seplat losing 640 to 576 (#64 = 10 %)
Let it not move down below our 2019, 60 dollar per a barrel budget benchmark, to avoid affecting our stock.

Alepa:
Operation python dance 3 will begin very soon throughout Nigeria and it will end a couple of weeks after the election .
Anybody from any region that wants to try nonsense will smell pepper .

Do they want to militarize 2019 general election, federal government should handle military with care, to avoid military taking over the government in disguise of fighting election violence.
Not he that goes to court first win. As for me I don't need violence or anything that will affect our stock market or economy.

Mpeace:
This ur bonanza stuff dey too funny. I bought all of my stocks(6 in number) before your so called bonanza period yet they are all (with exception of oando) on profit, with the least on over 15% profit.
I happy say I no follow the gang.

Mcy56:
Wetin you dey talk na? Oya dey carry your tea go, I no want again.
Market dey there jorr, see as everyone just dey observe.

Bonanza transmission, transfusion, and trans - confusion everywhere, more opportunities in the days ahead as those in 4% principle will take their profit next week.
Before the 16 February, we should make sure we position ourselves in sound fundamental stocks, at least take front seat, and turn our mode to medium/ long term mode. Medium of 1/2 year and long term 3/4 years before the 2023 election.

Final year result 2019 which will come up between January/ March ending 2020 will double/triple anyone's money, who invested in any of the good stocks I mentioned earlier.
Good luck @ all