₦airaland Forum

Gold bearish

US30 bullish

Davigle:
My weekly forecast;
DXY
Overall, I'm still bullish on the DXY, as strong fundamentals continues to come out of the US economy, from the first week of the year, NFP data came out higher for the month of December, CPI also came out higher in the month of December which gave the impression that inflation remains sticky, retail sales coming out stronger showing the resilience of consumer spending in the US, strong weekly jobs report except for last week showing that the labour market remains tight, strong manufacturing and services PMI which shows that production or the industries is in expansionary territory, an outstanding GDP which beats investors expectations and with the icing on the cake, PCE deflator, the Fed's favorite tool for gauging inflation came out higher on the month over month report and tricked lower in the year over year report. this shows that the US economy is still performing well or better compared to their counterparts in the global economy or among the G7 countries. If we recall December's price action for the month of December, was pretty bearish for the DXY due to the Fed pause in the FOMC meeting in November,
which fuel the stock market greed, as expectations were running high that the Fed is going to cut rates starting from March 2024, but recent economic data and comments from various members of the federal reserve has not only push back but also dial down the bets of an early rate cut in March, because they needed to be sure that inflation will steadily go down to the 2% level before they start cutting rates. if they cut rates too early, it could trigger a recession in the US economy which they are fighting to avoid. At the moment now the Fed has achieve a soft landing in the US economy with the recent economic data, this means that they have successfully tame inflation without triggering a recession while the US economy is still performing well and expanding aka the goldilocks. So the Fed would not be in any haste to cut down interests rate they may wait till Q2 of 2024 specifically in May before they begin to pivot, although this is my speculation but Powell may reveal the Fed stance and the next step of action in their upcoming FOMC meeting on Wednesday. And lastly, seasonal data shows that the month of February tends to be a bullish month for the DXY, I will continue to be bullish on the DXY as long as strong or positive economic data continues to come out of the US and price action continues in an uptrend or bullish market structure, although we could see some bearish corrections or deep retracements, it won't change my bias on the DXY
so levels of liquidity that I am watching are, 103.80, 104.26 and subsequently 107.38

My forecast for the week ahead;
My bias still remains the same, dollar bullish, gold bearish, but US30 bullish
👇👇👇

Donsheddy:
We preach patience everyday but we still go back to do the same thing.....

To me i just feel like im just starting to learn how to trade honestly....

Last year taught me alotttttt.....

You see that word discipline and patience thats the key to growth


Normal me with how horrible the market was last month....

My account went into DD and came back to Break Even....

If na before all my accounts for don dey swim in 5% DD or loss...

But the deepest it went was 1%,......

The losses will come and the profit will also come

Honestly, you are absolutely right, I won't lie some of the mistakes that I personally made was due to impatience. most times I trade what I think and not what I see. at times I forced trades because I feel the market should reward me for my hard work. I feel the market suppose to reward me for hour's of study and research that I put it in whereas it doesn't always work out. my impatience stems from thinking that I can maybe sometimes get lucky and outsmart the market, and thereby get myself out of my present predicament. But the market always humbles me and forcefully reminds me of the need to be patient. last month was pretty rough for me and I decided to link my account to a trade explorer, I saw that I had made a total of 151 trades of which 50 were winners and 111 were losers, I had a 31% win rate, my maximum overall drawdown was 2.4%. I truly realize that proper risk management saves a whole lot, I also traded news throughout last week and I can tell you that I lost many of the trades I took, but I'm still standing. I realized I am not good as I taught I was. but if I can continue to maintain proper risk management in all my trades , things will definitely turn out good.

Donsheddy:
2007 no be today oh....
I still dey jss2 then 😂

Chai na aunty you be sef, me ah don't know wether na indomie generation I belong too abi na gen z ah belong too 2007 ah dey primary 2 then 😂😂😂😂😂😂. Omo na small pikin I be for here ooo

I think having a trade explorer should be must going forward (either myfxbook or forexfactory), as this will definitely help a trader to better track your performance.

infofirst:
Let's check.
How many of us are still having @alpha 5k acct running here?
How many have blown it?
How many are still having that 5ers acct $5k with tough rules?

We really need to do beta.
2024 is going.
Be deliberate.

I still have my 5ers acct although still in draw down but I am slow crawling out of it, once I get out of it, it would be the third time I am coming out of draw down to breakeven. I even had to create a trade explorer for the account so that I can better track my performance. Slow and steady is the path I chose to follow and that's why I don't trade more than 0.01 lot on the account and allow risk to reward work it's magic.

I also did not Hussle for alpha capital account

wahala promax

damburouba shege banza loading.........

samfelly:
“Our response began today. It will continue at times and places of our choosing,” Biden warned, adding, “let all those who might seek to do us harm know this: If you harm an American, we will respond.” He and other top U.S. leaders had been saying for days that any American response wouldn’t be just one hit but a “tiered response” over time.

https://apnews.com/article/attack-military-iran-iraq-houthis-229a735edbb7759ba9ade543013917df

Na the main reason sef ah no go touch gold next week because I am still bearish on gold but you see this geopolitical risk can make gold to rally. I'm sticking with my US30 next week and it's still earnings season, macdonald and caterpillar which are both companies that are part of the DJI index will be realising their earnings on Monday, which will make us30 pump up if the report comes out good. last week us500 and nasdaq rallied strong after FOMC on the back of strong earnings report from MSFT, Meta, Apple, Alphabet and other companies. Overall strong earnings have been coming out from most of the companies in the US which is fueling the stock market rally. US30 and US100 will still make new all time highs next week

samfelly:
Ope ooo

😁😁😁
I saw shege but I survived again
risk management the only holy grail and saving grace I have

Davigled:
US30 currently at 38600, I have had a change of heart and have modified tp from 38800 to 38700, don't want to be greedy today

congratulations to meeeeee, tp smashed
phew, what a week.

Powell ati FOMC ah don forgive you pipu

LincolnOnyeabor:
Lesson learnt my Chief.


News no concern me again.

My TFT account don dey enter Limbo abi na Menopause ni.

But bro I been say make you wait 45mins first make dust settled before you trade now... pls don't take it the wrong way.

Davigled:
US30 buy at 38390 stoploss at 38290 tp at 38800

US30 currently at 38600, I have had a change of heart and have modified tp from 38800 to 38700, don't want to be greedy today

make wuna hold Donsheddy nawww, till market close, him dey shake too much tables

😂🏃🏿‍♂️🏃🏿‍♂️🏃🏿‍♂️🏃🏿‍♂️🏃🏿‍♂️

abeg make wuna bring chain tie don oooo, make market close first b4 we begin combat... 😂😂😂😂

Donsheddy:
With all this plenty write up... You still chop sl...
😁😁😁😁🏃‍♂️🏃‍♂️🏃‍♂️🏃‍♂️🏃‍♂️🏃‍♂️

Alaye calm down, ah no enter immediately, am still alive, am live oooooooo

Donsheddy:
You wan gree for the market.... No naw....
Davigle No gree oh... No gree for the market... Abi hit them hard.... 🏃‍♂️🏃‍♂️

Nibo ah no dey gree for any bori ooo

Kaybee7000:
Lolz Davigle don't revenge trade o abeg,u can even let today's loss slide,just remember the most important trade is the next trade ✌🏾

Ah egbon na my first trade for today ooo, I waited for news to settle down b4 making the trade call here, just as I had told Lincoln that it's best to wait 45min after NFP release before trading, seems like my theory worked out today.

Davigled:
US30 buy at 38390 stoploss at 38290 tp at 38800

US30 up 100 pips plus from entry, stoploss moved to BE, let's hope that price gets to our target at 38800

US30 buy at 38390 stoploss at 38290 tp at 38800

LincolnOnyeabor:
Thanks boss.

I never ever look at US 30 Or NAS 100 at all.


Na Gold and other Currencies I dey always look at.

Thanks boss sha.

ahhh, my analysis that I post is only valid for stock indices ooo, I can't vouch for gold and currencies, but I can vouch for US30, infact US30 is the optimal asset to trade NFP with, because ONCE your on the right side of the market and price move in your direction, the RR is hugeeee

LincolnOnyeabor:
Abeg bosses in the House, what exactly are we expecting by 2:30pm??


Shey na Buys abi na Sells

As for me, indices either US30 or NAS100 buy, wether the news is good or bad, I'm buying those moraforkers, I have studied all NFP release from this year January to last year January 2023 releases, I saw that irrespective of the outcome of the news stock indices always rally. but there's a catch, and that is you wait for 45mins for the dust to settle before you execute. the only exception that I saw during my study was the sep 1 2023 NFP, stocks sold off even on a strong NFP release, I still don't know what happened or why it happened and also on April 7 NFP release, the chart appears as if the day was cut short or the market's closed early. other than those two anomalies, the stock market pretty went up on NFP release. But you may have to control your greed and set reasonable or realistic targets, as price rallied aggressively on some NFP and on some it was a disappointment. cheers
trade safe and remember that past price action is not an indicative of future price movement 😜

richgen:
The market is erratic because of the NFP news driver dropping at 2:30 pm today.

Let's trade smart.

Bossmi you are right, just checked EU GU and Gold, and its all jargons I'm seeing on it, but indices are looking super clean especially US30

EXLOVER:
I recommend you trade v250 to make a lot of profits

oh yes I use to trade v250s, together with v75, v100 and v50s but you need nothing less than 100 dolls to trade v250 (my opinion though) because just small move fit liquidate you

Bimmarlykay:
Trust she's(us30) the most volatile but am talking about pip-$ ....i still dey eye dat gal called Silifa.

silifa pipvalue is highest among all financial asset class but she too slow like igbin and her spread dey wide which is a huge turn off for me

Puremark:
what about forex are you not lossing .you just need to learn how to trade synthetic. I have being doing a lot of research on synthetic indices strategy.
I will soon start trading it.

Yes I do lose in forex too, but not compared to synthetics, I have compared my performance between the two, and I can say that I am doing okay, my biggest problem is indiscipline and lack of patience, but as for consistency, I have found better consistency in trading forex compared to synthetics. I'm am not giving up on synthetics but for now let me conquer forex b4 I try synthetics again, one cannot achieve mastery trying different things at the same time

Puremark:
why are you not trading synthetic indices again.

My broda, I was gambling with synthetics, I had way too much loosing streak even though my winning trades are bigger than my losses, for every 1 profitable trade that I have, i would have lose like 6 to 8 trades before that win.

samfelly:
USDJPY NO GREE FOR EURUSD. BOTH DEY PUMP (Buy)

Na ur fada inlaw cos am, Powell just set confusion for market

Bimmarlykay:
I don't know which is scarier between Silver,Us30 and xti....?

Bossmi I can confidently tell you from my own experience that us30 is the scariest of all, I am yet to see any financial asset that beats us30 in volatility, not even Gold sef fit beat. dat gurl na confirm werey she be ooo. na only synthetic indices beat us30 for volatility. but I like her pass gold. 😁

Geovanni412:
Chief, there is sth you are not understanding

Market has a cycle. It is called a 3- day cycle

I learned this from Stacey Burke Trading. Follow his page on YouTube, his course is also useful to help you think of markets differently

Your issue is this...

You are rushing these sell moves. They take time to develop.

Quality sell moves take anywhere from 10-15 hrs or more to develop and even then ,there is a high probability that the market may not be done ranging.

My suggestion:

1. Take only false breakouts sell signals- If you must take sell moves in a range , consider limiting your options to only sell signals that occur above 0.5x of the previous day's range.

Example: gold ranged between 2030-2048 on day 1, Tuesday (30/1/2024), only take a sell move on Thursday, Day 3(1/2/2023) if you see signals of mkt breakdown ard 2057 on day 2, Tuesday.

This system is replicable for range structures only. It will not work for reversals of a strong uptrend.

2. Stop taking sell moves within a range and focus on buy below base moves after key sell levels are taken out

Personally, I prefer option two. It is a very healthy option for your acct and peace of mind.

You are absolutely right boss, I think I keep entering at the wrong time,

Hey guys, lately I think I'm suffering from market PTSD, I'm beginning to doubt myself due to fear of losing or being wrong like this morning I shorted gold at 2042 with my stoploss at 2052, but later after observing price I began to think that what if I'm wrong I have been trying to short gold since the beginning of the week and have been failing, bottom line, just checked the chart now, gold dropped 100 pips price at 2032/2033 there about, what a repeat of last night senario, I really am mollified right now, I am taking the rest of the day off charts. my head is not in the right place now.

Aremolekunowo:
I am currently catching over 230 pips from gold shorts now. ..am expecting more dump to about 700pips God willing.

😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

Powell finally ruled out a rate cut in March, OLORIBURUKU OF A SOMBORI, why you no talk am since naw, na when ah don comot b4 you con talk am, you evillllllll mannnnn