₦airaland Forum

AMINDA:
Yes, but which part of the South? After 8 years of Obasanjo as President and 8 years of Osinbajo as Vice, Tinubu had no business contesting against Obi in 2023. Its the turn of the South but your man Friday is disenfranchising Obi in whatever political party he goes. Is Obi not Southern enough to contest against him?

That is my personal opinion. I have never been against Obi's presidency, even in 2022. I am not speaking for other Tinubu supporters. I have posted it multiple times on this forum that Tinubu is serving a term that should go to South East.

However, I am strongly against the Northern arrogance in Nigerian politics. Atiku's lack of respect for zoning is emblematic of that arrogance.

AMINDA:
Then Tinubi will have rolled back all the advantages that a three-horse race bestows on him. Obidients should be careful with their messaging and how they throw invectives at Atiku. They might still need to rely on his voting bloc.

For some of us in the South, checking the North is more of priority. I am perfectly fine with Obi's presidency.

AMINDA:
If Tinubu takes ADC out of the election, he would have shot himself in the foot. The anger will make the North vote Obi/Kwankwaso enmass.

That is fine! I am not against Obi's presidency. I am not one of those APC supporters who hate Obi. Tinubu vs Obi is my dream match-up so that I am happy with anyone. It is the turn of the South.

My earlier fear about Obi was being a stepping stone to a Northern presidency.

AMINDA:
Most of Akume's men already defected from the APC. Will they come back? The rift between Akume and Alia is not the kind that can be settled with mere presidential directive and press statement. It goes deeper than that.

Pantami just rejected conscensus in Gombe and is set to head to court. In Kano, Abba has denied Barau, Ado Doguwa, Kawu Samaila and others return tickets. The implosion is inevitable.

Implosion is better than not being on the ballot. ADC will not be on the ballot next year. Mark this!

Without Obi, Atiku can never be president. Obi's and Kwankwaso's exit from ADC is a big blow. Those two added a lot of steam to ADC. I don't see anything that can excite anyone about an 80-year-old Atiku.

Besides, ADC have many serious legal landmines ahead of them. They would need a lot of luck to scale through unscathed. Any serious politician with ambition would not stay in ADC any longer.

I strongly believe that the David Mark's faction will not be on ballot next year. Heaven will not fall! It would have been different if all the major opposition leaders like Obi, Atiku, Amaechi and Kwankwaso were united in ADC. Taking ADC out of ballot in such scenario would be difficult. With Obi and Kwankwaso out and forming a strong opposition, ADC can be dealt with without much resistance from the public.

I see Obi vs Tinubu contest next year.

helinues:
https://www.nairaland.com/8368644/peter-obi-might-join-apc/1#139289161

Obidients learn politics, I don't need another epistle again about this

Now it should be easy to deregister ADC or nullify David Mark's faction totally. It would have been difficult if all the leading opposition figures were in ADC.

Now that Obi and Kwankwaso have left the party, NDC will have more media hype and many will talk less about ADC. The opposition's earlier argument that Tinubu wanted a one-party state would be difficult to sustain. If I were Tinubu, I would do everything to kill David Mark's faction or get Atiku out of the way through the court. So 2027 would be between Obi and Atiku.

AMINDA:
Hmmmm.

PETER OBI lacks character. Lol 😆 a man that can't keep to his word.. Sorry ADC. I saw this coming.

pic.twitter.com/4l7z8U0F3K

— Emma ik Umeh (Tcee )🇳🇬 (@emmaikumeh) May 3, 2026

Obi and Kwankwaso leaving ADC marks the beginning the of end for the party. The party has many legal landmines ahead which will be litigated to the Supreme Court at some point. The Attorney General also went to court recently, asking the party to be deregistered. Any serious politician will not stay in such party.

The defection of Obi and Atiku from ADC will surely move the momentum of the opposition in favour of NDC. There will obviously be less talk in the media about ADC going forwards. Also, there will be more defections from the ADC.

Lastly, if Tinubu really want to get ADC off the ballot like some opposition voices alleged, now is the time to achieve it. Through court judgements, ADC or Atiku can be taken off ballot without so much noise. The argument of running a one-party democracy would fly so much when there are Obi/Kwankwaso in another party doing well and gaining media attention. People will move on quickly and some might even justify it, saying it is the turn of the South.

DoTheNeedful:
Obi and Kwankwaso leaving ADC would be really bad for Atiku. There is something called "momentum" is politics. It is commonly used in America to describe when a politician or a political party is riding on high waves. ADC has been enjoying this for the past three months. Their momentum was further fueled by Obi and Kwankwanso. In fact, without the Obidients' criticism of the government's undermining the opposition, the resistance would not have been as strong as it was.

If Obi and Kwankwaso leave the ADC, I would expect more defections from ADC and it would cut across all geopolitical zones. The interesting thing is that ADC still has a lot of legal landmines ahead of them. The SC judgement of yesterday only refered their case to go back to the federal high court. The case will still get back to the SC at some point. This makes it more encouraging for more politicians under ADC to seek home in other parties. This would clearly take steam out of the party.

Obi and Kwankwanso leaving ADC will put a nail on the coffin of Atiku's presidential dream. More people will leave the ADC across all geopolitical zones. Mark this! ADC still has several legal landmines ahead. It makes no sense for any serious politician to remain in the party.

AMINDA:
Lol. The coalition needs Obi to be on the ballot if Obidients are not going to support it but Obi should be more worried about being able to replicate his numbers in the South and the middlebelt. Take this seriously. Atiku is not Obi's opponent, Tinubu is. Do not make enemies out of a base that you may still have to rely upon.

You are one of the most confident and arrogant advocates of any major politician gunning for presidency that I know. Although, much of your confidence is driven by your dislike of Tinubu and you believe Tinubu should be kicked out, using every means possible.

If things don't go your way next year, it is likely you would deactivate your account on NL or switch monikers.

To the main topic, Obi and Kwankwaso leaving ADC would be really bad for Atiku. There is something called "momentum" is politics. It is commonly used in America to describe when a politician or a political party is riding on high waves. ADC has been enjoying this for the past three months. Their momentum was further fueled by Obi and Kwankwanso. In fact, without the Obidients' criticism of the government's undermining the opposition, the resistance would not have been as strong as it was.

If Obi and Kwankwaso leave the ADC, I would expect more defections from ADC and it would cut across all geopolitical zones. The interesting thing is that ADC still has a lot of legal landmines ahead of them. The SC judgement of yesterday only refered their case to go back to the federal high court. The case will still get back to the SC at some point. This makes it more encouraging for more politicians under ADC to seek home in other parties. This would clearly take steam out of the party.

Tinubu juju strong I swear

We know those people behind the lie. Someone months ago said these people imagine stuffs in their heads , spread it around and start jubilating.

This was my initial thought when I read the earlier news. Unfortunately, many are incapable of logical analysis. The quality of engagement is very low on our social media space.

The judgement of the court is worse than upholding the status quo ante bellum. The court is asking the case to be taken back to the federal high court. The litigation of the issues are starting afresh and it would still get back to the supreme court at some point.

The judgement did not in anyway make pronouncement about the validity of David Mark's leadership. It further does not compel INEC to recognize David Mark. If anything, INEC might decide to implement the Tuesday's judgement that derecognize David Mark as the ADC chairman, pending its vacation at the Appeal and the Supreme Court.

The case might going on for many more months. I think it is advisable for the opposition to use their plan B at this point. The smarter ones would find home in other parties.

This is getting funny now.

I don't believe Tinubu is involved in scattering the opposition. That said, if PRP gets involved in another intra party kerfuffle, I might start suspecting him.

If Atiku and co are unable to use ADC, they should allow them in PRP.

Atiku not using ADC is a big win for ADC. It ensures that no competitive political party appears before APC on the ballot paper. PRP should be good enough for the opposition.

Reality3080:
if atiku/obi we're to b on d same ticket, tinubu will beat them silly.

Hope u know there are many northerners who also want power n they will rather let tinubu win n have it in 2031 than support an atiku who will use 8 years


Many of u don't even understand politics n besides d Fulani factor will also work against atiku, a Fulani left power just 4 years ago n we never rest u don bring another Fulani

Na only Fulani get Nigeria?

I understand your logic and it sounds very reasonable. However, Atiku is gaining momentum among Northerners currently. If Obidients join that growing momentum in the North for Atiku, Tinubu would be in problem.

Lithiumite:
Let's see the dollar value,I think that would be a better yard stick.

I was expecting to see a comment like this. And such comment is likely to be from people opposed to the government. Why didn't you ask Obi what the exchange rate was when he converted Nigeria's foreign debt to naira in order to make it appear humongous? In actual fact, our national debt has reduced under this government, compared to what it was in 2023. However, some dishonest people in the opposition would always state our debt in naira to scare Nigerians, despite the fact that our debt have historically been stated in dollars.

By the way, with or without the exchange rates, the Nigeria Stock Exchange is currently doing better than it has ever done since independence. For the first time, the market capitalization crossed the $100bn mark last week and NSE is currently the second in Africa.

I agree with Sowore here. The only justification I could provide for Obi joining ADC is that he wanted to be Atiku's VP. However, I think he's too scared of disappointing Obidients, so he is being careful at the moment.

Once the primaries are concluded and Atiku is declared winner, the SE leaders would "appease" him to be Atiku's running mate. Atiku's group would in turn promise to make Obi the most powerful VP and put him in charge of the economy. In addition, they would promise that Atiku would do one term and Obi will succeed him. Some Obidients would key into the idea and the dust would settle.

I watched a video where Obi was addressing some of his supporters, and he said that if Tinubu wins 2027, the next time power rotates to the South, he would be 75 years. He has thought through a lot of things and made various permutations in his head.

Say whatever you like about Obi, I don't see him as a dumb politician.

With all the above being said, if Obi joined ADC with the believe that he would win the ticket and he isn't going to deputize anyone, then he must be the most silly politician.

He is welcomed to join the race. I hope he knows that the 100 million naira paid for the form is non-refundable.

saddler:
Who established the Rotation?

I understand if you are asking this question as a Northerner. If you are not, then you must either be naive or silly!

givedemwotowoto:
Tinubu knows if Atiku is on the ballot, most Northerners will vote for Atiku.

Even with Buhari being President and endorsing Tinubu in 2023, Atiku won in Katsina state, and also the NE in general despite Shettima being from the region.

With Peter Obi’s support, Atiku will floor Tinubu in the South as well.

If the candidate was Peter Obi, he’ll definitely floor Tinubu in the South. With Atiku’s support and Kwankwaso being on the ballot, plus big players like El Rufai and Tambuwal putting in their weights, opposition will match Tinubu strength to strength and he’ll be on his way back to Bourdillon

Tinubu losing 2027 election would not be the end of the world, and it would not magically turn Nigeria into an Eldorado like some of you try to make it. Whoever takes over from him will not bring dollar back to 400 naira, nor bring petrol subsidy back.

Tinubu will forever be known as a former president of Nigeria even he if loses in 2027.

My own worry is how a section of the North believes they own Nigeria, and how quickly they get uncomfortable whenever a Southerner is in power. This goes beyond Tinubu. They did it to Jonathan and even Obasanjo. Obasanjo was said to have prostrated to Atiku just to get a second term because Atiku threatened to contest against him in 2003, believing he (Atiku) could oust Obasanjo with the Northern votes.

I have no problem with Obi or any Southerner going against Tinubu. If Obi wins 2027, I am perfectly fine with it. Southerners need to wise up and not fall for these Northerners. Any alliance made by the South with the North rarely last more than 8 years. The alliance expires the moment the Northern president completes his two terms, leaving the Southern VP empty-handed and a weak platform to launch their own presidential ambition.

Rotational presidency is the only way out.

While Akpabio might sound insensitive to some, there is some meat to what he said.

It is not impossible that some political actors in the North are fueling the insecurity up North. I could see a parallel between level of insecurity now and the ones in months leading up to 2015 election, when the North wanted power back in the North.

[quote author=zoomzoom post=139098138][/quote]Buhari was younger and healthier. Atiku is weak. Have you seen him walk recently? Buhari didn't begin his presidency at 81.

Kewekubosineh:
How's it a lie? It was in the news recently.

He said Peter Obi won the election but was denied it because there were organized plans to deny him the presidency.

I don't want to argue. You made a claim and I asked you to back it up. Provide a credible link to what you wrote earlier. El rufai never said the election was rigged. I am saying this with all confidence.

Kewekubosineh:
He won 2023 elections but was denied it by INEC in cahoots with the presidency

Evening Nasir El Rufai confirmed it.

It's a lie. El rufai never said it. I challenge you to provide a link from any credible new outlet confirming what you posted.

Obi is just playing games. He wants to be the VP to Atiku. If not, he would not have joined ADC.

He cannot win the primary in ADC nor the general election. I keep saying that the North's anger towards Tinubu is not sincere. They only want power back in the North; forget about the talk about economic hardship. The Northerners have always been like that. I am sure they would not vote for Obi over Tinubu, if 2027 is a direct choice between Tinubu and Obi.

Obi's best bet is to be Atiku's vice. Through this, he could also be president just like Jonathan. At 80, Atiku does not seem like someone that can complete 4( 8 ) years. He looks weak. I'm sorry to say.

ArcSEMPECJ:
All these names you mentioned are like a dot in the circle to the bragging of Tinibu that it was him that out Buhari in Office after Buhari came crying to him.....
.
The South South had an opportunity to have President voted and elected but some of you Yorubas never wanted it to happen, that s why when Tinibu took the stage, he said it is not FuluYorubanisation , that Fulani and Yorubas are Brothers , betraying and ignoring South South and South East.... thinking it will last forever anyway .

We have come a long way in this political game played in 2014 against Jonathan but it is a lesson to other Southerners apart from South West that they are free to work with the Hausas or Fulanis inorder to get whatever they want just like South West got their own ..

So what is your problem here? Is it only Yorubas that know how to play the game of Betrayal

Thanks for the bolded part. At least, you have testified to the political power of Tinubu. Many folks like you argued that the contribution of Tinubu and the SW to Buhari winning in 2015 was not that much.

AMINDA:
No worry yourself. Falle Daya Ce

Live from ADC Sokoto State Secretariat
ADC 2027 Congress pic.twitter.com/iZEAVlsrHm

— EJIKEME🇳🇴🇳🇬 (@ejykmykel1) April 11, 2026

I hope you wouldn't hang yourself if Tinubu end up winning in 2027. Your opposition, which you are entitled to, is taking an unhealthy dimension. You need to calm down.

Alaigbo:
If you know how much those people hate n jealous those from the SW with passion you will understand why or how they are able to forgive others.

There is no jealousy from the SW. The fact is the SE has a special sense of rivalry for the SW. They blame them for everything, even the civil war.

zegxy:
Continue with your ass licking. If I may ask how has that changed your miserable life? Are you better off since your god came to power than now ?
But your obsession for the SE won't let you reason with your God give brain.
Bro grow up, you aren't getting younger

You talk as if you know me so well. My life is far from miserable. You would be happy to have someone like me in your lineage. You think everyone on NL is your mate.

Tareq1105:
It's bcoz of:

1. They can easily be deceived bcoz enemies of their enemy immediately becomes their friends irrespective of past disappointments.

2. They believe that Yoruba blocked their chances of producing the president forgetting that power is not served hence the needs to build bridges of love over time and not hatred.

3. They don't know how to navigate their way to power. I mean not being on the right platform that can lead them to presidency.

All your points are valid.

They generally see the SW as their political enemy. So, any group of people or geopolitical zone that is at odds with the SW becomes their friend.

mrvitalis:
The reason South East is angry with Jonathan defeat is because it has ruined Nigeria
Economy is worse
Insecurity is worse
Poverty is worse and many more

Trust me if APC had performed igbos would be championing APC now

But
Let's see how fast South West would move on from Tinubu rightful defeat

So, you mean the South East are better at understanding good governance than the Niger Delta folks? I am shocked at how stuck our South East brothers are in 2015. There is more to it. What you conveniently ignored from my earlier post is how the SE have seemingly forgiven people from other region who contributed to Jonathan's loss in 2015. People like Saraki, Amaechi, Dino, El rufai and Atiku.

The South West are always to blame for any perceived negative feeling our South Eastern brothers get from Nigeria. It is historical. The SW is blamed more for the civil war than the North. If a SW politician team up with a Northerner and a Niger Deltan to form an alliance the South East people do not like, they would mainly blame the SW politician. If there is any unpleasant story written by some newspaper against an Igbo person, they would blame the Lagos-Ibadan express way.

If Tinubu loses in 2027, the SW would move on. There are even Yorubas that do not like Tinubu. Besides, the SW rarely vote massively in one direction.

The Niger Delta people moved on faster from Jonathan's 2015 defeat than our South East brothers. Tinubu, who lead the campaign against Jonathan then, even got almost 40% of the votes in the Niger Delta in 2023.

The Easterners are yet to forgive Tinubu. Funny enough, they seem to have forgiven the other people that campaigned against Jonathan in 2015, but not Tinubu and the SW. People like Saraki, Dino Melaye, Amaechi, Atiku, El rufai, and so on seem to have been forgiven by our Eastern brothers. I honestly don't know why?