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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 4:06pm On Apr 02

I followed the Ellah Lakes posts including the warnings. My conclusion was that many people are gambling rather than investing. It was so obvious what was happening. Having said this, I believe the Security and Exchange Commission should spring into action. What the Ellah Lakes management has done is fraud.

Streetinvestor2:
The results and information has proven me right again. Everyone here remember me shouting insiders are selling directly and indirect. They had thr agents here promoting the scam alert. This was why thr was no RI to the fund raising. They formed cabal on my matter with one audio billionaire and one other barawo who attacked everyone on kpakus matter. He only came to say rubbish after they had met thr target and sold
They are back to promote another fraud called unity Bank after warehousing the junk

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 2:57pm On Oct 27, 2025

KarlTom:

I'll rather say 37. It's not out of this world to pay for 5 years of the earnings of access. If you project the current H1 of 3.72 to full year, that is 7.44. Multiply that by 5 and you get 37.2. I have not considered any growth which is very likely from this level.

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 2:40pm On Oct 25, 2025

Agbalowomeri:
They have chopped this bank finish
Unto the next

I think people have unrealistic expectations of ACCESS and the banks generally based on 2024 financial results which was driven by fx revaluation regardless of how it was presented in their financial statements. If you back out the one time fx revaluation effect from the 2024 financials, the bank has done very well despite a significant increase in loan loss provision. The market has factored in the impact of the 2024 fx revaluation. That is why ACCESS was trading at a p/e of 1.75 despite its growth pattern ex f/x revaluation. Same with most of the banks. Now that the era of fx revaluation distortions is out of the way, we will begin to see valuation at p/e of 4 to 5 which I consider still too low given the growth pattern of the banks.

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 5:43pm On Aug 26, 2025

mikeapollo:
What I mean is that it is wrong to float and devalue the currency by 200% in an import-dependent economy if the objective is to accrue more revenue.
The better option is to limit or reduce the import of non-essential items, so we can reduce the pressure on the exchange rate, as close the trade gap rather than just devalue the currency anyhow just because you want more revenue in local currency.

The primary objective of devaluation or correct pricing of your currency is not to accrue more revenue. It appears so because in Nigeria's case, government is the major exporter by a very wide margin which in itself is a consequence of decades of incorrect pricing of the naira that effectively killed all other productive sectors and made Nigeria an import dependent country like you said, relying on export earnings from oil to fund the imports. The primary objective of devaluation or correct pricing of the currency, like I prefer to phrase it, is to give your own local producers a chance to compete in the international market either for export or stand their grounds against imports in the local market. As we speak, it is steal cheaper to import basic food items into Nigeria compared to locally produced ones unless you take extra ordinary measures like high import duties or outright bans. We have done that for decades and we know they don't work. The common man still pays economic price but you end up with government created billionaires at the expense of your local production. This is an indication that the naira is still not correctly priced. One can argue that as long as we can fund the imports with dollar earnings from oil and related energy products which are indeed part of our production, then the naira should reflect that. That is true as long as we are willing to live with the vagaries that comes with being a mono product economy. I always say that we should learn from how Norway managed this situation.

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 6:27am On Aug 26, 2025

mikeapollo:
We are very good at playing with fantastic rhetoric.
What ''recent gains'' have we achieved and how would strengthening the value of the naira create ''instability'' in a country that is heavily dependent on imports?
The only so called ''stability'' we have now is the near-total dislocation of the economy caused by the reckless floatation and devaluation of the naira from N550 to N1,550.
There would not be any purchasing power parity with the dollar as long as there is cost-push, import induced inflation, and a weak industrial base.

You say the country is heavily dependent on imports as if that must always be the case and policies must be formulated to accommodate that. So, how do you fund the imports?

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 5:27pm On Aug 15, 2025

EDUECO:
So why have Sterling ,Unity and Union(it has been delisted because it couldn't meet up with standard)banks not been declaring and paying good dividends?

Have you seen the shareholder's funds of Zenith,UBA,GTCO and Access Bank? Their shareholder's funds are greater than their market capitalization!

Yes, I know that. The multiples of book value over capitalization and low p/e ratios are the primary reasons I reallocated my portfolio to the quality banks. However, a single incident of write off of a large troubled asset can wipe off the shareholders' funds and the p/b ratio is suddenly not as juicy as it looks.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 4:53pm On Aug 15, 2025

EDUECO:
Skye bank wasn't paying dividends and it didn't release result for some quarters before it went down.

Think about it. Every bank is motivated to show profit and declare dividends no matter what. Otherwise, the bank will invite a run which spells doom. Per book, a bank's assets will always be greater than it's liabilities. The question is the quality of those assets. As long as you continue to have deposits, even if the assets are not performing or performing poorly, the bank will still have cash to create more asset and pay dividends. The truth is this has been the case recently, otherwise, CBN will not be talking of forebearance. This situation may not be as dare as I am making it out but I believe there is some element of it right now. Otherwise, you'll not be seeing to he p/e ratios of banks at between 1 and 3. It's not been so historically.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 3:39pm On Aug 15, 2025

Agbalowomeri:
So you think na people's deposit dem dey use pay dividends?

Money is fungible. Globally, almost all banks that failed continue to pay dividends until the regulators step in.

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 3:34pm On Aug 15, 2025

emmanuelewumi:
You did not include Axa Mansard and Custodian

I did not include AXA because of high valuation at 20+ p/e ratio. It has been like that for a while so the current p/e ratio is not a fluke. I did not include Custodian because only about 50% of their business is insurance.

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 3:26pm On Aug 15, 2025

EDUECO:
You think an average dividend yield of 10% is a fluke? Dividend don't lie.

Banks are different from other companies because they take deposits. As long as deposits keeps flowing in, they'll be able to pay the dividends, even with questionable asset quality.

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 3:01pm On Aug 15, 2025

EDUECO:
Their intentions have always been to pump and dump.They have never had any intention of holding for long. The final bag holders will be at the receiving end.

At least a revenue of about 1 billion Naira would have been reasonable for a company with a market capitalization of about 50 billion Naira.

50 x sales is crazy! Not for any Nigerian company.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 2:53pm On Aug 15, 2025

Streetinvestor2:
This for the people who want to invest in insurance sector.
Use nem insurance as bench mark.I used nem because it was a stock I had plenty afolabi units and later sold at #2 plus. I regret it.
Which of the insurance stock do u feel can repeat what nem has done from the 2 plus to 30 plus based on fundamentals. If u find such insurance stock. My advise is accumulate now.

I think it is still NEM. For all the talks about the new opportunities in insurance business because of the new insurance bill, it is NEM that is better positioned to take advantage. This is because NEM has a higher percentage of it's business in insurance compared to others and has the capital to take on more business. Same can be said of AIICO but AIICO has an history of underperforming it's peers if you look at capital employed and premium volumes.

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 2:43pm On Aug 15, 2025

EDUECO:
Okay let's assume the Full Year EPS is N3.71 for 2025 financial year. This N3.71 is more than 25 percent of the current stock price of FCMB

My question is can Geregu,Okomu,Presco and Nestle make up to N250,N260,N340 and N440 respectively as their full year EPS for 2025?

From the above,you can see that FCMB has better intrinsic value and is more of a blue chip company than those other 4 companies that their market capitalization is more than 1 trillion Naira!

You have not factored in risks. Most banks have their p/e ratios between 1 and 3. This is because their asset qualities are not quite transparent, especially with the talk of forebearance. Almost all of them have high concentration loans to a single obligor in the energy sector. Any mishap can turn that p/e ratios to 100 or even negative. I should disclose that I just reallocated my portfolio to the high quality banks except GTB despite what I just said.

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 9:50pm On Aug 13, 2025

IyaTola:
I get your point, but the comparison is not as straightforward as it looks.

Yes, N2 billion worth of GTCO shares paying N180 million in dividends in 2024 is fantastic on paper — that’s a 9% yield in one year, not counting potential capital gains. But you have to remember:

Market volatility – Share prices can swing sharply. A bad earnings year or a market downturn can cut both your capital value and dividends in half. Property values usually don’t crash that quickly in Nigeria unless there’s a major crisis.

Dividend policy is not guaranteed – GTCO paying that much in 2024 doesn’t mean it will keep paying at the same rate forever. Companies can reduce or suspend dividends in tough years.

Property income is relatively stable – While a N500 million property earning N30 million/year may seem small compared to N180 million dividends, rental income tends to be more predictable, and you can index rent to inflation over time.

Leverage & collateral – Banks will almost always prefer real estate as collateral over shares, because they can repossess and sell it in the open market without worrying about share liquidity or price drops.

In short, stocks can give you higher returns if you pick the right ones and time the market well, but real estate gives you more stability, collateral value, and inflation protection. It’s less about which is better and more about which risk profile you’re willing to live with.

I had to respond to your dependable rental income with a saying I coined. "Your tenant's problem is your problem".

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 3:18pm On Aug 06, 2025

Itzlinda:
Thank you very much. This is one of the good thing about stocks. The marketers are knowledgeable and there are resources to learn from. Unlike crypto that most of the influencers are just shilling random coins to use you as an exit liquidity

While I lost so much in crypto, the experience has taught me a good investment principle. I am no longer chasing 15x or 10x within a year. Most times it is better to invest in fundamentally sound assets and just wait, you will likely be better than those chasing larger gains with riskier assets.

I also understand time in the market always beats timing the market. May we all become successful in our journey to financial freedom.

Great lessons. It works in all markets.

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 12:29am On Aug 06, 2025

Streetinvestor2:
Don well how.What has really changed btw then and now because you are seeing #2 plus now.I sold majority of mine at #1.70 after waiting for yrs to see improvement in thr financials/dividend. How much was nem then and dividend growth over this yrs.The ceo of aiico falls among ceo paid very well for doing nothing as per growth of that company. AIICO is one of the insurance company with spread all over this country and still under performed..This present rally should not be yard stick to call the company as doing well abeg.When I came into this business aiico was a strong brand in the sector than nem.

I will illustrate it to you with figures. As of 31 Aug 2018, Aiico was ₦0.79 per unit. My own average was much less at ₦0.65 but we will use the ₦0.79 price.

If you have 100 units of Aiico at that time, your opportunity cost is ₦79.00. In 2020, Aiico did a rights issue of 5 for every 13 shares at ₦0.80 per unit. If you exercised all your rights, you'll get additional 39 shares for ₦31.20. This makes your total costs ₦79 + 31.2 = ₦110.2 for 139 shares.

In 2022, Aiico did a bonus issue of 12 for 9 shares. This gave you additional shares of 185 shares making your total shares 324.

At ₦1.65 per unit shares at July 2025, the total value of your shares is ₦534.6 for something whose total costs to you is ₦110.2

This is an analysis over 7 years. A more agile person could have exited a year ago when the value hit ₦1.67 or thereabout. There could also have been alternative stocks that did better than that in those 7 years. I actually suspect NEM did better but I have not done the analysis. However, that did not remove the fact that despite under performing it's peers operationally, as an investment, Aiico did well on its own.

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 12:24am On Aug 06, 2025

[quote author=Streetinvestor2 post=136357410]Don well how.What has really changed btw then and now because you are seeing #2 plus now.I sold majority of mine at #1.70 after waiting for yrs to see improvement in thr financials/dividend. How much was nem then and dividend growth over this yrs.The ceo of aiico falls among ceo paid very well for doing nothing as per growth of that company. AIICO is one of the insurance company with spread all over this country and still under performed..This present rally should not be yard stick to call the company as doing well abeg.When I came into this business aiico was a strong brand in the sector than nem.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 11:45pm On Aug 05, 2025

Zegra:
Bros
How have you been?
Immediately I saw AIICO on full bid, I thought of you. I'm glad to see you've finally moved on from the company.
Did you ever get the chance to write to their management like you mentioned back then?

Hi. It's been a while. I went off this forum for many years and came back only about a month ago after I decided to quit my position in Aiico and I wanted to get ideas on where next to go.

I did write NAICOM on obvious defects I saw on AIICO's financial at the time. They acknowledged my protest but nothing came out of it. I wrote to AIICO itself. While they explained some things to me, they acknowledged and changed their presentation on some of the things I pointed out but I also believe that they hid some things on life insurance technicalities which I cannot pretend I understand 100%. Button line though is that when compared to their peers in life insurance, in this case, leadway and FBN life, both of which are private or non-life, in this case, NEM, Aiico was and is still critically underperforming if you look at either returns on assets, returns on equity investment or profit margin. However, this was also over reflected in aiico's stock values at the time which made it an attractive opportunity. I am talking of around 2017 and 2018.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 7:14pm On Aug 05, 2025

Streetinvestor2:
Yes oga Emma and sunrise don't make money from this junks you mentioned here.
Infact sunrise has made more money in sound stocks this yr than this junks even as a trader though I am not a trader. I sold most of my aiico at #1.70 and very happy whr I channelled the money. I will not touch any of those stock you mentioned with long pole,lol
For roylex is not a junk though I was not impressed with the H2 results. Remember when I called you attention to it then.You rejected it and I said I will pick it for my second jijo while you said you had a different stock in mind.
That I don't consider royalex as junk does not mean thr are no many junks still in insurance sector.Many H1 results of insurance are disappointing if you checked them
My problem with aiico has been the ceo and the OS.The ceo is cornering the company profits to himself..We have discussed that here in the past.That company is suppose to be at par with nem insurance now

I do not believe you are fair on AIICO. I do not know your investment philosophy. However, if you look at the difference between AIICO's current market cap and the market cap at around 2018 and deduct the cash infusion through private placement and rights issue done around 2020 - 2022, you'll realize that the stock has done phenomenally well. I was heavy in aiico in this period but completely exited my position recently at an average of ₦1.65, believing that there are better opportunities in the market both within and outside the insurance sector.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 9:33pm On Feb 01, 2024

Hogwarthtrades:
The answer is right in your highlight. Follow the note number 10 & 19 down the page (the number is a guide on where to find the item down the line as you read though the report ). if confused , check page 16 for definition and 33 for what instrument the FVTPL comprised of in the report. in this case, mostly treasury bills, bonds, etc. the investment securities not clearly stated.

I didn't address sterling in your comment because the statement isn't clear; in general, every business swing between categorising assets as FVOCI (other comprehensive income) vs FVTPL (profit /loss) based on the criteria of meeting cashflow test (oversimplification of the whole thing).

No. FBN has not explained the hugh N681 billion FVTPL gain. If you go to note 10, there is nothing there. They just restated the line and amount. If you go to note 19 where FVTPL are listed, you see a line for derivative assets for N617 billions. On the face of it, this looks like a booking of paper assets for inclusion in P&L as FVTPL gain. However, there must be an underlying transaction that gave rise to this asset which FBN did not disclose. Given the size of the asset and its impacts on the p&l, the underlying transaction merits disclosure. Unlike the other big banks, FBN has a hugh figure of N350 billions as foreign exchange loss in the face of a massive devaluation of the naira. What this tells me is that the derivative transaction created a hugh foreign currency liability for FBN. All of these needs to be disclosed. Hopefully, the auditors will not let FBN get away with this level of opaqueness amd there will be disclosure in the published financial statement.

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 5:10pm On Jan 30, 2024

ositadima1:
I think politics is also a consideration in the choice of who to buy from. Why buy from the USA when the USA's WTI is not the cheapest? I think Russian crude is cheaper than the USA's WTI. There are other better sources too.

I am happy that soon there will be competition. By then, the market will be forced to overcome all these politics at the expense of the masses.

Russian crude is heavy crude. The closest to the Nigerian light crude that the Dangote Refinery is built for is American crude.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 5:05pm On Jan 30, 2024

BullBearMkt:
DANGOTE REFINERY SET TO IMPORT CRUDE OIL FROM THE US
Recent reports indicated that Dangote Refinery is planning importing crude oil from the United States. This development has sparked discussions, with some questioning the refinery's commitment to Nigeria's oil industry and its patriotism. However, it's important to view this move from a business perspective.

Dangote Refinery, as a business entity, is seeking ways to reduce costs to maximize its profits. One of the key factors driving this consideration is likely to be the cost differential between Brent oil, commonly associated with Nigerian oil, and WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil from the US. While Brent oil is known for its higher quality, it comes at a higher cost.

Opting to import WTI for refining purposes can be a sound business decision due to the cost advantage it offers. The crucial question arises when it comes to the pricing of refined products. Will Dangote Refinery price its products as if they were refined from Brent oil, or will they pass on the cost savings to consumers by offering competitive prices?

If Dangote Refinery chooses to sell its refined products at a price reflective of WTI cost, it would alleviate concerns among Nigerians.

Another major concern would be the pressure on dollars (or foreign exchange), which the country is currently dealing with.

I bet this will be worked out with NNPC. I do believe that the local market will be supplied with refined products from crude sourced locally while refined products from imported crude will be exported.

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 4:59pm On Jan 30, 2024

stcool:
We do not have a serious and sincere govt. This is a company that NNPC and the CBN supported with the county resources.

Dangote will make a business decision, so long as it favours him. If what him an BUA is battling in the cement industry does not teach anyone a lesson, then we are not ready.

For me, I do not think Dangote is ready to produce fuel until 2025. We can do all the media brouhaha...but reality will always come knocking!

So, what do you guys expect? Leave capacity created at billions of dollars idle? It is clear that given Nigeria's commitments for crude supply and the PH refinery, they cannot meet the requirements of Dangote refinery. There was even a delay in production startup for this same reason. We should be glad that the value added on the imported crude is happening in Nigeria.

Politics › Re: Nigerians Report Chigozie Nwonwu To BBC For Fake News(photo) by Dupeodus: 5:22pm On Oct 11, 2023

ganisucks:
That is not the issue. The issue is that Chigozie is spreading false information. CHIGOZIE MUST GO.

Amazing! None of you guys have made any attempt to falt the analysis in that BBC report. The facts therein are as contained in the deposition of the CSU registrar. Yet, Chigozie must go. This is fascism!

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European Football (EPL, UEFA, La Liga) › Re: EPL Chatroom - All Discussions by Dupeodus: 5:36pm On Oct 03, 2023

raumdeuter:
I really hope he can answer you

Which is why I asked if he read the documents

I once said some smart people will be allowing people not half as smart as them be using their head and formulating narratives that is insulting their intelligence

The no. 2 question was answered by CSU. CSU acknowledged that the date on the certificate presented by Tinubu to INEC was wrong. They swore to an affidavit that the mistake was theirs. How else will an institution acknowledge that they issued a document?

Politics › Re: Did Tiefnubu Submit A Fake Certificate To Inec Or Not? by Dupeodus: 5:29pm On Oct 03, 2023

KanwuliaExtra:
Why are you avoidig the INEC FAKE CERTIFICATE?
It does not bother you that your MANDATEA-THIEF attended a so-called school and was NEVER ISSUED A CERTIFICATE?

The only reason ATIKU in in the Chicago Courts is to prove TIEFNUBU'S CERTIFICATE TO INEC IS FAKE!
Not that he went to CSU.

Please, wait fo the depositions. . .enouigh of these GBAJUE AFFIDAVITS..

CSU IS A FRAUDULENT UNIVERSITY PERIOD! It is collaborating with a THIEF like them!

So, CSU is now in collaboration with Tinubu. Remember Tinubu went on to become a CPA after graduation. You guys have no credibility.

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Politics › Re: Chicago State University May Revoke Tinubu's Degree because of this... by Dupeodus: 5:27pm On Oct 03, 2023

jude79:
Not only that, the cert the school gave to atiku is different from the one tinubu submitted to inec.
If the one the school gave atiku is original, then the one given to inec is fake, case dismissed

And where did you get this from? One of the certificates given by CSU to Atiku is that of another person that graduated from the same college as Tinubu. The fonts and general appearance of the certificate is exactly the same as the one presented by Tinubu to INEC

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Politics › Re: Why Tinubu Needs To Be Cursed And Banished From Nigeria by Dupeodus: 5:23pm On Oct 03, 2023

KanwuliaExtra:
He needs to be EXECUTED in Tinubu square!
What a cettificate-FORGER!!!
Shameless old illiterate drug baron that could not go to school.

Which certificate did Tinubu forged?

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Politics › Re: They are Now Wheeling Out The Amateur Damage Control Hustlers - David Hundeyin by Dupeodus: 3:26pm On Oct 03, 2023

mtngloetiartel:
Don't mind them. Even the Elnora Daniel is about to sue Tinubu for tainting her credentials by claiming she signed the forged certificate.

You are only hanging on a thin rope emphasizing a detail that I am sure is explainable. CSU all but certified the certificate presented by Tinubu. CSU produced the certificate of another person from the same college that Tinubu graduated from. The fonts of the two documents and general appearance are exactly the same. CSU acknowledged the descrepancy in the date on Tinubu certificate buy swore to an affidavit that the mistake was theirs. What else would validate the authenticity of the certificate presented by Tinubu?

Politics › Re: They are Now Wheeling Out The Amateur Damage Control Hustlers - David Hundeyin by Dupeodus: 3:09pm On Oct 03, 2023

mtngloetiartel:
Don't mind them. Even the Elnora Daniel is about to sue Tinubu for tainting her credentials by claiming she signed the forged certificate.

And where did you get that from? From that Nigerian Concord that has no name of correspondence mentioned?

Politics › Re: We Don’t Have Criminal Case Against Atiku – US by Dupeodus: 1:25am On Oct 30, 2022

Trinitycian:
https://punchng.com/dont-criminal-case-atiku-us/

Whoever is using this as a defense for Atiku must think Nigerians are stupid. Yes, Atiku has not broken any US law. It is Nigeria that Atiku broke its law. It's not the US problem if Nigeria decides to hold Atiku accountable or not. The US took care of its own. The US legislator that was Atiku's co-conspirator in the criminal enterprise contravened the US foreign anti corruption law. He was tried, convicted and jailed. There is no US law that Atiku contravened as he is not a US citizen. That does not exhonerate him.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 10:53pm On May 03, 2022

petaling:
It seems you are newbie here as I just started seeing your name here. My advice is don't make any insurance coy one of your largest holding as those guys can burn your fingers. Insurance coys are good for jijo but not long term.

Newbie? Hmmmm. Orísirísi. Oga Wanajo don suffer.

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