Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 12:58pm On May 14 |
mikeapollo: There is no currency in the world that is not defendable, including the naira. If you want to believe the useless and cluelesss propaganda of the current govt to justify their reckless devaluation of the naira, just say so. Period!. What happened to the Zimbabwean currency? |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 7:23pm On May 08 |
Agbalowomeri: They should just shut down dividend for 5 years and build equity to 4 trillion  Abi my suggestion no good? I think we should be fair on Access Bank. The bank has done well operationally. Income is well diversified and assets deployed are more efficient for the foreign operations than the Nigerian operations. All of these are clearly shown on their financial statements. The CBN approved all of those foreign investments. That is why, as much as I love the way Cardozo is handling the banking sector with tough hands, I think he is a little unfair with Access. If the CBN changed its mind on the approvals they gave Access or it's a consequence of change in CBN's management, the least they could do is give Access some time, say three years, to come within the guideline. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 12:25pm On May 07 |
ppogba: You are correct. Assuming Access deliberately breached the rule, CBN should be bold enough to admit it's regulatory negligence and if it is a new rule just as you imagined, CBN should still be blamed to for their untoward haste in wielding the stick.
Bottom line:
Na Naija wey dey. But truth be told, Access Bank sef too over do. When you start acquiring both lame and crippled banks in back water Kenya and Uganda, then, it's management should look itself in the mirror.
One thing I know about Nigerian banks is that if you give them a yard, they are ready to take a kilometer. We have to remember that CBN approved all of those acquisitions. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 8:16am On May 07 |
jonnysessy: You have to think of the larger gain. The improve electricity will favour your wife more than the ice block she is selling. Opportunities are abound when we have constant electricity. Just pay a visit to Aba or call anyone you know there. Their orientation and way of life have changed. I hear they even pay above your DISCOs band A rates, yet they are happy because industries are springing up, small and medium business are cashing to the bank, just because there is constant power supply, Individuals are seeing their own. When you live in a place that the system works, you will surely find your footing. Crime rates has reduced because a lot of jobless youths have found one thing to do with their lives. It could be barbing, welding, sewing, shoe cobbling, hair dressing, photocopying etc. The list is endless, when citizens are meaningful engage who will think of crime. There is a popular saying: The more the merrier Just like in the stock market, if more people are exposed to it, there will be more money to be made. The money you will make will not affect the one I would make.  A major problem that Nigeria has with power in the last decade or so is the insistence on paying unrealistic tariffs. I kept wandering how Nigerians think they can pay less than half of what is obtainable outside Nigeria on a product whose tools, machineries and expertise are imported and expect any success. A common argument is 'how much are Nigerians earning' as if that has anything to do with the cost of production. The funny thing is that the same Nigerians that insist on unreasonable tariffs now spend exorbitant amount on generators and diesel. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 7:36am On May 07 |
ppogba: Good Morning All.
Whoever cares should go and read the story with the headline " WHY ACCESS BANK MAY NOT PAY DIVIDEND IN H1 2026" on Nairametrics.
Very interesting revelations there. What I'll like to know is if this foreign investment limit rule had always been there and Access deliberately flaunted it or it is a new requirement from CBN. If it is new, then the CBN is not being fair on Access because it is forcing Access to do a fire sale or increase its cost of raising capital. What CBN ought to do is give Access time, like three years, to work towards the limit. Everything makes sense to me now because all along, unlike UBA, I saw nothing relating to risk assets in the financials of Access to prevent it from paying dividends. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 4:47pm On May 05 |
Agbalowomeri: Oga e never reach one week wey you buy ACCESS you no wan allow us rest. Better wear your patient jacket and pick ya seat. Plenty people don dey this bus for years Lol  Can you fault his analysis? |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 9:13am On May 04 |
Namaster: So Ecobank is in the SAME situation as UBA and Access YET Ecobank will still pay dividends.
Ecobank's provision is DOUBLE that of Access and NEARLY double that of UBA and Ecobank will still pay dividends.
Interesting!
Also, pray for AccessCorp today.  You cannot rely on that article. It is so badly written. It reflects the poor quality of Nigerian journalism. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 7:23am On May 04 |
ojeysky: It's interesting how we just find excuses for inefficiency. So because we have a huge population is the reason we cannot increase our production. It is the reason we cannot manage what we are producing and our resources effectively. One would think our population should be an advantage, the Chinese are more populous than us but again you would argue that their system is different and call it a wrong comparison as well. Let's keep praising ourselves indulging in our mediocrity You went from comparing Nigeria with an unproductive (just like Nigeria's) economy that share proceeds of natural resources exploitation to a very small population to a productive economy that paid the price of its past economic sins over a generation. Are Nigerians ready to pay the price the Chinese paid before they get to where they are today? |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 8:08pm On May 03 |
ojeysky: Libya pay the lowest taxes during the time of Gaddafi yet education was free, free housing, plus lots of other freebies. I use Libya intentionally because they are oil producing country like us. UAE is another, the taxes is low and see their growth.
We seem to excuse govt inefficiency with low taxes as if that is the problem. What has the resources in their hands been used for, even the so called low taxes they've collected, how have they used it for the benefit of the populace. How then do you have the moral to tax more when the one entrusted to you have been used so badly! In 2011, during Ghadafi, Libya was producing 1.8 million barrels of oil per day to a population that is just about 6 million people. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 7:37pm On May 03 |
BabsO2: Look at how ETI and ACCESS stated their Q1. UBA needs no correction as they are not entangled with any Tier 1 USD equity instrument. I have not looked at WEMA, but the last I recall they have no dollar equity instrument patch.
ETI Q1 Profit after tax 197,528 Attributable to: Ordinary shareholders 128,336 Other equity instrument holder 5,066 Non-controlling interests 64,125
ACCESS Q1 Profit attributable to: Equity holders of the parent entity 200,526 Non-controlling interest 38f 16,011 Profit for the period 216,537
Access lumped up what ordinary shareholders are entitled to with what Tier 1 equity instrument holders are entitled to together and labeled it as Equity holders of parent entity. This will cause erroneous overstatement of EPS of shareholders. The Tier 1 equity bond ($500m) holders are intitled to an interest payment of 9.125% per annum. A more accurate EPS estimate should deduct 500*1450*0.09125/4 = NGN 16,539m from the Q1 profit before computing a more accurate earnings per of (200526-16539)/53317.838433 = NGN 3.45 For your PE of 5 common sense estimate Access Valuation becomes. 3.45*4*5=69. Because of too much uncertainty on the health of their acquisitions don't think they deserve the same PE as UBA.
So corrected EPS for Shareholders for ACCESS Q1 = N3.45 Your PE of 5 estimate for Access should value it at N69 But Access deserves a fair of PE of 4 if other banks are 5 that is common Sence value of 55.2 ; Is this speculation or facts? If it's facts, then it's a material misrepresentation that no auditor should sign. Bond, carrying a coupon rate is bond, regardless of which tier. It's interests should be charged against earnings. That it is tier 1 only partain to ranking in event of liquidation. It does not make it equity and it ranks higher than equity. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 8:55pm On Apr 30 |
mikeapollo: Na Access bank volumes be your issue or abi na the dividend? You either ignore the volume or join them. All die be die 
940m units is clearly an insider or institutional investor And who are the people that sold? This must be cross trading. That volume is not from retail investors. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 12:54pm On Apr 29 |
EDUECO: The 10 percent is as good as your dividend. 
I sold about 8 percent of my ACCESSCORP in my investment portfolio for about ₦35; and this is my dividend for 2025 financial year.  Miller and Modigliani theory of the irrelevance of dividends. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 4:18pm On Apr 28 |
megawealth01: Almost 190m offer... Una no get joy at all for UBA because of common dividends 
But seriously UBA should be punished more than this just like MTN was punished 2 years ago so they can sit up I totally agree with you on this one. What UBA management did is a serious breach of fiduciary duty that creates significant trust issues. You know of the CBN directive to treat 100% of insider loan as non performing. You did not only fail to recover such loans from insiders, you failed to reflect cbn's directives in your quarterly financial and did not issue warning to investors. If not for the slow pace of the judiciary in Nigeria, UBA should be facing a class action law suits from it's shareholders. I am still hoping that a smart lawyer will initiate this. I looked at Zenith on the other hand. Zenith provided for a total of ₦1.5 trillions in loans between 2024 and 2025. My guess is that a significant portion of this is insider loans that are still performing. If this is true, then Zenith has significant reserves that can still be written on to profit in future. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 12:51pm On Apr 27 |
Raider76: Blame the CBN. Why should they rubbish a big bank like the UBA? They should have allowed at least N1.00 dividend out of N9 EPS. I don't believe it's the CBN. There is a game going on. UBA could still have paid at least ₦1 dividend but chose to transfer all remaining earnings to statutory reserve. Over ₦200 billion. Double the required ₦101 billions. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 1:07pm On Apr 26 |
Mankind2024: E lọ fi ọkàn balẹ, UBA is àgbò tó fi ẹ̀yìn rìn lọ kò sá, agbára ló lọ mú wá. Where is UBA getting more than ₦300 billion foreign currency revaluation loss from at a time naira is relatively stable and I do not see a huge foreign currency position on the balance sheet. Back this out or if you position that this will not repeat going forward, then the first quarter result is fantastic. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 3:17pm On Apr 25 |
Mankind2024: It is a fundamental principle of financial integrity that one must not mischaracterize a transaction to suit a specific narrative—or, as the proverb suggests, "give a dog a bad name just to hang it." Regarding the acquisition of the 20.07% stake in Seplat Energy by Heirs Energies, there is no documented evidence or regulatory filing to support the claim that the transaction was financed using UBA Plc funds. Such a move would be contrary to the strict corporate governance and "Related Party Transaction" frameworks that govern Tier-1 financial institutions. The acquisition was anchored by major multilateral financial institutions, specifically: Afreximbank (African Export-Import Bank): Provided the primary credit facilities and long-term financing necessary for Heirs Energies to expand its portfolio. Africa Finance Corporation (AFC): Acted as a key institutional partner, providing the structured capital required for large-scale energy equity acquisitions.
https://businessday.ng/energy/article/heirs-energies-acquires-20-stake-in-seplat-energy-in-500-million-deal/ To the extent that there is movement of ₦187billion from the retained earnings account to an asset quality reserve which was the primary reason for the inability to pay dividends, there is certainly insider loan. It may be for other purposes other than the acquisition of SEPLAT. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 12:25pm On Apr 25 |
robobo: This is not exactly as u stated it (i.e. overstated profit). The mechanics of calculating impairment under ifrs 9 differs from the CBN prudential guidelines (as well as each countries prudential guideline). The rule per CBN is that if the CBN calculation is higher you transfer from your profit to the reserve but if IFRS is higher you maintain the figure from IFRS meaning you cant take out of the reserve. I suspect the difference will largely be because of the new 100% provision for insider related borrowings.
Thanks for the info. I did not know of the difference between ifrs and the CBN impairment standards. The CBN one appears too stiff to me though.
Meanwhile All Nigerian banks (and most international big banks all over the world) adopt the IFRS 9 standard for financial reporting, so their will always be a difference on impairment calculation every year. Thekey is the difference should not be as large as this one from UBA hence my thinking that it is from the new rule of 100% provision for insider related credit which is peculiar to UBA in this instance |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 4:55am On Apr 25 |
KarlTom: Note 4.2 d:
As the IFRS impairment is less than the prudential provision, a transfer of additional ₦183.4billion is required from retained earnings to regulatory credit risk reserve at the Group and a transfer of ₦4.115billion was made to regulatory credit risk reserve from retained earnings at the Bank, as disclosed in the statement of changes in equity. These amounts represent the difference between provisions for credit and other known losses as determined under the prudential guidelines issued by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Central Banks of foreign subsidiaries, and impairment reserve as determined in line with IFRS 9 as at year end. Bottom line. The profit declared is overstated by ₦187.515 billions as these should have been top line charges. I wonder why the CBN and the auditors would have allowed a material misrepresentation like this, hiding significant numbers like this in an obscure note and the statement of changes in equity that most people will not see. But for this post, I'll have missed it. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 6:11pm On Apr 19 |
nosa2: I have noticed that none of these super profitable moves are posted the day they are made. Why tell us you bought something and it did 10x when you didn't tell us the day you bought it and for the price you bought it.
For me the philosophy behind all this audio trades is fraud. They are looking for people to come and meet them to manage money for them.
I believe myself to be an above average analyst when it comes to picking out investments, I post my trades the day I make them. I don't do it so I can manage money for anybody (If you give me your money I will use it to eat suya). I post my trades here because I intend to show what is possible with good analysis, then I intend to stop posting here and post exclusively on www.ngxforum.com . If you want to keep having the discussions like that you are free to come and meet me there.
To all the people who know how to post historical super trades congrats. But if you want people to believe that you know what you are doing, post what you do the day you do it. If you cant do that then you are no different from Bernie
P.S I know two people on this thread who are billionaires, one has a portfolio of about N7b the other about N2b. none of them will come and be announcing themselves for security reasons I don't know why you are being cantankerous? I don't post often on this platform. When I started my AIICO moves about ten years ago, I did post about AIICO with the motive that others will see the value and take advantage of it. For you to say that I am posting for others to approach me to manage money for them is insulting to say the least. I do not have any licence to offer such service and I'll consider whoever gives his money to an unlicensed manager foolish. I have read your posts and you do have your investment philosophy which I admire. However, you should be mindful of the fact that you do not know anything about most people on this platform and prudence demands that you should be careful how you talk about them. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 2:33pm On Apr 19 |
Agbalowomeri: Okay I take it that you didn't get the joke No. I did not. I am sorry for my comments. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 2:08pm On Apr 19 |
Agbalowomeri: You sef don join the 'audio' billionaire geng  Be mindful that you don't know anything about me. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 12:45pm On Apr 19 |
Mankind2024: Frugality Is Not Deprivation To some Nigerians, especially in Yoruba culture, frugality is often mistaken for alaroro — stinginess. But in the context of financial independence, frugality simply means eliminating waste and avoiding anything that does not add value to your life. Many Yoruba readers will relate to the habits of constant aso ebi, owo ẹgbẹ, and other social contributions made just to “feel among.” These expenses quietly drain resources that could otherwise build long-term wealth. Frugality is the discipline of avoiding wastage of scarce resources. For instance, my phone is a Samsung A56 with no fault. Buying an S24 simply to “feel among” adds no real value. This mindset is what destroys the foundation of financial independence, and I am not a fan of it. Frugality does not mean my children will not attend good schools. In fact, I pay over ₦6 million in school fees yearly for the three of them. Frugality is not a reason I refuse to help people or avoid so-called black tax. I spend an average of ₦500,000 monthly supporting others. Frugality also does not prevent me from enjoying life. I go out once in a while and treat myself. My body no longer tolerates alcohol like in my younger years, but I still enjoy burukutu, which is readily available in Abuja. Frugality has never taught me to deprive myself of the merits of life. It has taught me prioritisation. Prioritisation of savings. Prioritisation of investment and diversification. Prioritisation of financial independence. No worries, brother. You used the phrase, 'extreme frugality' and I got the picture of a person I know with 6 brand new terraces at Lekki phase one but still drives a rickety car abroad where he resides. I am glad you mentioned my posts on AIICO. I should let you know that I exited the position to three big bangs just before the run up in insurance companies because I felt the banks were in the position AIICO was when I started to accumulate it, added to higher dividend potential. I do not have any regrets though as the current bull market has pushed the portfolio beyond the ₦1 billion mark and I believe there is still a long runway for growth for the banks. Over the 10 years or so focus on AIICO with less than 15% of the portfolio on UBA and Zenith, I cannot say that I put in more than , ₦100 million. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 4:05am On Apr 19 |
Mankind2024: You Nigerians Can Doubt Anything… But Let Me Set the Record Straight In none of my posts — old or recent — did I ever claim that I turned ₦1 million into ₦1 billion. That was never my story. I left the Federal Civil Service in 2011 with just ₦1.4 million in my pension account. That account has received no further contributions since then. Today, it stands at only ₦4.1 million — a painful reminder of how slowly pension grows compared to inflation. If there is any human being whose approval would truly mean the world to me, it is Warren Buffett. Because when I look around Nigeria and see countless successful billionaires who never stepped into a university classroom yet built empires through sheer grit and smart ventures, it humbles me. The only real leverage we “educated” ones have over them is the power of equity investment — owning pieces of great companies and allowing compounding to work over time. Many so-called educated Nigerians still doubt even the President when he boldly declares his vision to grow Nigeria’s economy to $1 trillion. So it’s no surprise that some doubt an ordinary person like me whose next quiet ambition is to grow my NYSE portfolio to $1 million. The moment I share any progress, the usual response from the “like and omo osi” crowd is to dismiss it as luck or claim my journey is not genuine. For the record: I still wake up every day for a regular 8-to-5 job, Monday to Friday. I practice extreme frugality. My only weapons are discipline, patience, and determination. This is the real story behind the numbers. There is still over ₦140 million of my own sweat and labour sitting in bonds and mutual funds. I inherited nothing from my parents. I had no powerful connections — only the knowledge I gained from the NSEMPA thread and the books of investing legends. Go back and read my older posts. You will see one consistent message: ordinary people can achieve extraordinary things through consistent saving, disciplined investing, and the magic of compounding. I don’t seek validation from doubters. I only hope my story encourages at least one young person out there who is quietly grinding, saving, and investing — just like I was years ago. That’s all. I have been reading you. I noticed something in this post. You practice extreme frugality. It is good to get you to where you are today. My advice is to relax and live life. Not recklessly like a prodigal son but reasonably, so you may not regret later on. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 2:26pm On Apr 18 |
Zagee: 3-4years of "initial hardship?" It is the nature of privilege to blind. Economic maradona!! 3-4 years? That is non starter for decades of economic mismanagement. We want everything microwave. You are looking at a generation. I always ask people to look at the Chinese and the Indians. Privileged Nigerians used to make fun of them when they were going through their generation of sacrifice. Today, it's a different story. I went to Bangalore in 1995 on an official function. The people we met with, most of which were at list equivalent of managers in Nigerian banks as of that time, were hopping on commercial okada to go home at the time. I believe the case with the Chinese at that time was even worse because their own strategy was being the manufacturing as opposed to the software capital of the world. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 2:10pm On Apr 18 |
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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 1:56pm On Apr 18 |
Streetinvestor2: Why is it when people like you post.It is always about the people to sacrifice Tell us the sacrifice the people leading are doing as example. Is this government not living larger than life.Look at the recent Tinubu visit to UK officially. Did you see the kind of jamboree it cost the country with no benefits to the country. Do you know the budget for the city boy nonsense happening right now.Abeg leave all this yeye talk about the people I do grant that the Tinubu Administration is not leading by example and therefore risks losing the confidence of the populace in their reforms efforts. This is the unfortunate part. The reforms risks being terminated before we begin to see the fruits. I must say that my comment was general rather than being specific to the Nigerian situation. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 6:21pm On Apr 17 |
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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 6:11pm On Apr 17 |
Valthegreat: Oboy! The gap between JSE and NSE is like the distance between heaven and earth. NSE can't reach the distance in 20 years time even if they place an embargo on JSE growth. We must give it to the whites that they know how to run countries and economies. Zulus and Xhosas couldn't have achieved anything close to where South African economy is today on their own but they know how to make mouth because people who believe in development have built the system already. It will be interesting to know the market p/e of jse compared to that of nse. A bigger portion of this gap may just be valuation metrics which reflects market risk perception. For instance, my rough estimate of market p/e of Nigerian banks is 3 which is preposterous in my view, given the fact that they have both historical and potential growth. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 7:41pm On Apr 09 |
jonnysessy: If they can pay that much, expect a rally in the share price. I am actually thinking they will pay N2.00k, their outstanding number of shares is humongous when compared to GTCO, Zenith bank and UBA.
At last most banks will likely do share reconstruction. This will be the pay back time for all the bonus enjoyed in the past in the banking sector.  Actually, the big banks need both. Bonus issue and shares reconstruction. They have trillions sitting on their retained earnings account that they should capitalize and also have humongous number of shares. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 8:38pm On Apr 08 |
EDUECO: Iraq,Afganistan and Libya were also accused of being therorist nations; but history has shown that it was all propangadas.
The UK also used propagadas to start the Opium war in China.The Opium war was started in order to counteract or destroy the advancing Chinese economy .The USA also used the Covid 19 form of propaganda but it never worked against the Chinese economy because China has learned from the Opium war with the UK.
Both the UK and the USA have the same thing in common;if they cannot control you,they will use propagandas to give you a bad name in order to start a war with you.  In world history, one man's freedom fighter is another man's terrorist. Most of the first leaders of the 1948 nation of Israel were labeled as terrorists by the UN, US and most of European countries. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 2:12pm On Apr 07 |
You have not considered that UBA has a higher number of shares now. Paying the same per unit as last year is actually an increase in dividend payout. This is not to say that they cannot or won't do it. jonnysessy: I do not see the ambitiousness in my expectations. Is UBA moving forward or backward if they pay N3.00k final dividend. Need i remind you that in 2024 financial year UBA paid N2.00k interim dividend and they cap it up with N3.00k final dividend. I am only being conservative and modest here with the expectation of N5.00k final dividend. Afterall, they only paid 0.25k interim dividend. Hence, if they therefore pay N5.00k final dividend they have not done anything spectacular, they only repeated the feat performed last year. Is GTCO and Zenith Bank that declared improved dividend having two heads.  |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Dupeodus: 3:45am On Apr 04 |
Valthegreat: Honestly I lost over 5m by not selling at the peak price. Mega really understand this game wella. EDUECO should continue to wait until he becomes an ancestor before Access Bank will make him Otedola. There are investors and there are traders. Everyone does what fits his/her temperament. What I have heard though is that it is investors that make money in the long run. |