₦airaland Forum

garfield1:
Let's wait till then.for now,tinubu is winning boy.rest

Rest you don't have bloc vote

Kwankwaso is wining

garfield1:
He doesnt need bloc votes,he just needs to win atiku and obi in core north.do yo know 15k per lgas is approximately 500k and will cancel anambra? Where will atiku get bloc

He won 5/6 LGA with Avg of 15k
Have you thought of if Atiku wins the remaining 28/29 LGA

garfield1:
Atiku got bloc votes from ss se in 2019

Agreed

Where is Tinubu bloc vote coming from as per if it's KKK forget it

Example here in Kano

Most of us delivered for NNPP

Katsina that I'm seeing

APC is getting avg of 15k per LGA he has won while Buhari was getting avg of 35-40k


Heard LP & PDP is dividing Kaduna


Jigawa is for NNPP.. My Younger bro LGA in Jigawa Senate was won by NNPP

While Presidential Atiku

So where is the bloc vote.. is it SW that gave APC 200K in Ekiti, even heard Atiku is wining in Osun

PHIPEX:
I doubt if any of the KKK states will cross 700k votes this time around.

A very good news for Labour party

Kwankwaso would get more than that

garfield1:
Boy,margin is what matters.tinubu wonekiti by over 100k,buhari won by 70k

Is Buhari from SW

Your region is supposed to give you blok vote

Calm down
APC Is losing

This is how turnout has always been here in the North only difference is BVAS

And Electoral Officers are careful of over voting

famology:
Try to put the opponent score next time. Tinubu did far better in percentage. Turn out is generally low across Nigeria including the north.

It's not turnout but BVAS

If no BVAS

We in the North would have high turnout

Kwankwaso is coming

Avg of 15k per LGA and there is 34 LGA

Approx vote for APC would be 500-600k as Atiku would also win some LGA

Our Almighty Buhari 1.2M votes in the mud
Compare 2019 Buhari Katsina Result with 2023 Tinubu Katsina Result

A big waste

Kwankwanso is coming 100%

garfield1:
But tinubu is winning and obi zeroing

Calm down Mr. Urchin... my vote is for Kwankwaso

Buhari had 1.2M vote in 2019

Can't you see the way Tinubu is misusing it

His total vote might end up 400-500k in Katsina

Tinubu is wasting Katsina vote

Compare it to 2019 from same LGA

Compare and contrast Buhari Katsina result 2019

3.Matazu LGAPC 27,625 PDP 9,151


Charanchi LGAPC 24, 391 PDP 6, 521

Musawa LGAPC 31,690 PDP 6673

Kaita LGAPC 27, 228 PDP 6,925

Ingawa LGAPC 29,230 PDP 7,625

No bulk vote for anybody


This how Buhari got 1.2M vote in 2019


Source:- https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2019/02/26/buhari-wins-katsina-with-1-2m-votes/amp/


BVAS sha

cursedAbiola:
lol looking like typical SE results

I don't know what you mean but can call any coalition officer in Borno and they tell you

In 2019 There is a LGA where APC won 56k + currently it's 31k and then PDP did not get up to 3000. But they have 10k

Tho result is still adding

misreal:
This is why they are scared of uploading the results in quick time

BVAS is deadly

Hmmm

wegevv:
Okay this is a 50% drop which is huge. Will be interesting to see if this plays out in the rest of the core north

My point is if APC don't up this numbers like 2019 election

They lose

misreal:
these numbers were crazy oh

See this one also this for Yobe state

2019 & 2023

Another one from my cousin LGA

Kaga LGA Borno currently

APC :5230
PDP: 2800


Last election was
APC: 14k
PDP :220

Or something

Compare 2019 & 2023 Total vote in this Local Govt

lovewins:
BVAS is the game changer.

Now you can't just use incident forms and mass thumbprint. Now you have to bring all of those "millions of people" you have and make them accredit themselves via picture or fingerprint. I'm almost certain we won't have 1M total votes from the KKK states this time.

One funny thing is PDP getting 2000+ in Kaga LGA


Look how Borno voted per LGA in 2019

https://saharareporters.com/2019/02/26/buhari-sweeps-all-27-lgas-borno-beats-atiku-almost-800000-votes


PDP was not in existence in the votes

I'm surprised also Kaga LGA in Borno

APC = 5200
PDP = 2400

But in 2019

APC got 14,000
PDP got 500

Papichulostunne:
You know the funny fact is El rufai is running up and down say this and that.. For all we know he might even be one of the ones betraying Tinubu. He just wabt it to look like he is for Tinubu camp and that the "North" will support him against thier brother kwankwaso or Atiku.

I heard him speak of Peter Obi that he is a nollywood actpr that will get 1% in kaduna and sokoto. But he never for once belittled his brothers kwankwaso and atiku.

The truth is they have a northern agenda and Tinubu in his old age is no longer capable of deciphering the trend behind the song "On you mandate we shall stand" . . . His mandate is his "MONEY". The northern governors are milking him so that he will be left high and dry by the time they are done with him.

Still God has anointed one man to lead us to our breakthrough. Thou art Peter

I dont know why the media always makes it like we Northerners don't have mind of vote

Its the almajiri that have not voted that they should say like that

If they should even vote with this BVAS I hope invalid votews wount be plenty as most don't even know political parties and have not voted in thier lifetime ... Invalid votes would be a lot I fear

I have voted for Buhari since Obasanjo until when Yar'adua vs Buhari as Yara Adua manifesto was better than Buhari so I did not vote that that year

This year my vote is for Kwankwaso as his manifesto is better than Atiku

Ganduje or El Rufai can't tell me to vote for some one that old and can't recite the

If after Feb 25th, What you are expecting you don't get it. Don't come with the talk that we betrayed you guys
Firstly if you want to win the North

You must with the KKK with total votes... Kano is for Kwankwaso alone. Ganduje can't tel me who to vote

I would stone him

Katsina is a Fulani state: If you believe Tinubu would win Oyo & Osun PDP states even tho the PDP have issues in that place. Atiku would also win Katsina

Kaduna is free fo all as most Christians in Kaduna is for Peter obi, I don't know why

If you can't win the full support of KKK

Nobody betrayed you but you got your self played

I hope the cabals works for you as only them can deliver 2-3M Almajiri votes

I'm yet to see a Yoruba person support Kwankwaso. You can't betray Tinubu to support Kwankwaso or Atiku but you want us to betray them


Some of you don't know we have been voting Buhari since the days of Obasanjo even tho we know he would lose

So voting Kwankwaso or even Atiku that have more chances is not something new

Lets change Nigeria Today

Hello everyone, here is an overview of estimated Buhari 12 M+ Northern Votes

Don't read this with emotions. Its 65-75% accurate
Long Read

I grew up in Doguwa, Kano. I have been Pro-Buharist since the days of Obasanjo. I voted for Buhari all through till Yar'Adua. I was a bit undecided till after election as Yar'Adua was humble and one of the best Governor and he had a better Manifesto than Buhari so I did not vote
This time around I'm voting for Kwankwanso as I know in the next 2-3 Presidential elections he would win .. only Zulum can contend with him in the North

Buhari votes is divided into 3

1. Cabals Votes
2. Christian Votes
3. Muslim Votes

1. Cabal Votes - [2.5- 3M Votes] : I don't know why people think the Governors of NW & NE are the cabals, Like the governor is going to deliver that state to anybody. How did the governor win first is the question they should ask themselves. Most Northern Governors won through the Cabals of that state help. Cabals also don't mean they have to be in the same party . The Cabals gave Buhari in the North[b] [2.5- 3M Votes][/b]. The Cabals votes include mainly 90% Almajiri votes ;- Most of them have not voted before at all.. They don't know how the ballot paper is like. Hopefully there won't be a lot of invalid votes from them this time around.

2. Christian Vote - [1.5 - 2.2 M Votes] : The North is not all Muslim, There is 35% of Total Christians or more from NC, NW & NE. They gave Buhari an estimate of 1.5M - 2.2M votes ; Example Benue & Plateau gave Buhari 340k, 460k respectively that is 800k. Both states are 80% Christian Northerner, other state with Christian population like Taraba, Adamawa, Kaduna would give him minimum of 80-130k. The rest like Bauchi, Gombe etc gave him 50-100k each so estimated is 1.5 M - 2.2M

3. Muslim Votes - [6.8 - 8M votes]: People here like us preferred Buhari over Atiku.

A Major analysis on how 3 types of vote is going to be divided in 2023

1. The Cabals: There is news going around that the cabals in Aso rock are not with BAT. Not true but I say just like 35-40% Cabals are not with BAT. Here is the reason - Peter Obi. He is the only unpredicted factor this election. The cabals also can't predict his next move if he looses to BAT. Its because Peter Obi is one of the first Politician in SE to get all the Youths love if I may say.
It would be worse as 3 things can happen. Referendum, Interim Govt or Coup.
United Nation was one of the catalyst of the New Electoral Law. If they also state Nigeria should draft a new election on Referendum . SE would drop out.
SS seeing SE is out would also wants to get Referendum just because why should they be giving NC, NW, NE,SW oil and taking 13% derivative
If UN or US don't see any way they can profit with Referendum. They delay it and tension in SE might be high. Interim Govt or Coup might set in place before handover to BAT. All this can't be predicted remember

The Cabals know that either through Referendum, Coup or Interim Govt. All their investment since Obasanjo period would end up been a waste. Why would they waste their generation investment on a mandate that might make them lose their power, or money so they are choosing Atiku.

Atiku is more accepted in the nationally, from SS, SE, NC, NE & NW and parts of SW unlike Tinubu that is only acceptable NE & SW, NW & parts of NC. even Buhari was accepted completely NE, SW, NW, NC & parts of SS & SE

2. Christian Votes: 80% of this people are not going to vote for APC as they trusted a Pastor as VP. But there were still issues in the Christians communities. 65% would probably go to Peter Obi while 15% would go to Atiku just because Atiku did not handle that Deborah issues well

3. Muslim Votes: I'm voting for Kwankwaso and Atiku as 2nd choice while a some of my friends from neighboring states is between Atiku as first choice and Tinubu as second choice while a few have Tinubu as first choice and Kwankwaso as 2nd choice


The election is for BAT to lose if Atiku can win some SS states with 30-40%.

I feel that why Wike wants to give BAT 25% from Rivers & Cross River as if Atiku wins. He is gone completely.

For Peter Obi to Win he needs Adeleke, Makinde to deliver 25% or more. Mainly Adeleke as if INEC does not appeal the case themselves
Adeleke is gone. Adeleke needs to deliver 25% to Atiku & LP just as Wike wants to give BAT 25% while PO takes the rest a as a Win for BAT means he is gone but for LP or PDP he has like 35% and 50% chances to win the case

Peter Obi also needs 25% in at least 2 of this NC states Kwara, Kogi or Niger.

If you have an opinion let me know

Hmm