₦airaland Forum

greatiyk4u:
This is how Obi is going to win the 2027 Presidential Election

1. Abia- Obi/Kwankwaso
2. Adamawa- Atiku/Amaechi
3. Akwa Ibom- Obi/Kwankwaso
4. Anambra- Obi/Kwankwaso
5. Bauchi- (Possible APM/NDC alliance)
6. Bayelsa- Obi/Kwankwaso
7. Benue- Obi/Kwankwaso
8. Borno- Tinubu/Shettima
9. Cross River- Obi/Kwankwaso
10. Delta- Obi/Kwankwaso
11. Ebonyi- Obi/Kwankwaso
12. Edo- Obi/Kwankwaso
13. Ekiti- Tinubu/Shettima
14. Enugu- Obi/Kwankwaso
15. Gombe- Atiku/Amaechi
16. Imo- Obi/Kwankwaso
17. Jigawa- Atiku/Amaechi
18. Kaduna- Atiku/Amaechi (NDC will get more than 25%)
19. Kano- Obi/Kwankwaso
20. Katsina- Atiku/Amaechi
21. Kebbi- Atiku/Amaechi
22. Kogi- Tinubu/Shettima
23. Kwara- Tinubu/Shettima
24. Lagos- Tinubu/Shettima (Margin here will be slim. Obi will get more than a Million votes
25. Nasarawa- Obi/Kwankaso
26. Niger- Atiku/Amaechi
27. Ogun- Tinubu/Shettima
28.Ondo-Tinubu/Shettima
29. Osun- Tinubu/Shettima
30. Oyo-Tinubu/Shettima
31. Plateau-Obi/Kwankwaso
32. Rivers- Obi/Kwankaso
33. Sokoto- Atiku/Amaechi
34. Taraba- Obi/Kwankaso
35. Yobe- Tinubu/Shettima
36. Zamfara- Atiku/Shettima
37. FCT- Obi/Kwankaso ( I perceive massive rigging here by the APC)


My Analysis..........
This is not just about popularity, it is about mathematics.

The 2027 election will be decided by three factors: a solidified base, a strategic Northern alliance, and a divided opposition.

*1. The Solid Base:* Obi/Kwankwaso locks down the entire South-East and South-South. That is Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo and Rivers. Add Benue, Plateau, Taraba and Nasarawa in the North-Central/Middle Belt where Obi has proven strength.

*2. The Kwankwaso Factor:* The game-changer is Kano. With Kwankwaso on the ticket, Kano - Nigeria's highest vote bank - flips from APC to the Obi movement. That alone cancels out Lagos.

*3. The Split in the North:* Atiku/Amaechi and Tinubu/Shettima will split the core Northern and South-West votes. Atiku takes Adamawa, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Niger, Sokoto, Zamfara. Tinubu holds Borno, Ekiti, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Yobe.

In Lagos, the margin will be very slim - Obi is projected to cross 1 million votes there.

Bauchi remains the wild card with a possible APM/NDC alliance.

On this projection:
*Obi/Kwankwaso - 17 states + FCT*
*Tinubu/Shettima - 10 states*
*Atiku/Amaechi - 9 states*

With 25% secured in Kaduna and competitive numbers across the North, the constitutional spread is met. The only threat to this victory in the FCT and other battlegrounds is massive rigging by the ruling party.

This is how the numbers work.




https://x.com/i/status/2102076896167039463

fergie001:
This is an election Obi could have stayed out of because he will return poor numbers he never imagined. However, I think his aim is to stop Tinubu. Without Obi on the ballot, there will be apathy in the SE. The SE is a zone before now who do not even care about elections. They sit in their houses on election days to discuss the 1979 election whilst the present one is ongoing, Obi changed that. It's also a zone where rich men won't come and decide the votes, you will be beaten in the PU in your house even if you are Governor.

Election rigging is helped by apathy! So, if they come out like in 2023, it will be very difficult and tight because everyone will vote for 'their' son.
Obi is not contesting to win like in 2023, safe to say he is contesting to stop the President.
.
It's my opinion.

erniok:
Distance is just my barrier as I stay in Lagos.

Digitworld:
35 08032801391

emiye:
Again ! Sigh! Osun state is a local election ! you are making quite wrong conclusions from that election. The governor wanted to decamp to APC, he is relatively popular in the state and very strong in his town and he pledged support to Tinubu before the election. The presidency may have wanted to win, but it was not a do or die election for the "presidency". But, you can believe what you want though,, it is just 4 months away. Every political analyst noteworthy gave it a close call in Osun state, with some tilting it towards the governor. Violence and vote buying was not one way in that election and it was close.

The "presidency" handed off and left the state APC actors to do their thing. To explain it to you, you know how in football group stages of 4 teams and 3 games, you have won the 2 games and qualified for the next round, the last game will decide the winner of the group, but only 2 will qualify; you want to win it to be best placed, but you can afford to lose it since you already qualified., you then field a mix of top stars and second team hoping they do the magic. If they don't you only lost a battle , you can still win the war. This is the incumbent president we are talking about here !

MEGAWATCH:
I just remember how you were boasting on that week before osun election...


Immediately after the election, your mouth changed and you and your gang started saying what you never said before the election.

Hypocrites!


🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Tareq1105:
Do you know that it was the disposition of El Rufai towards the southern Kaduna people that made them to vote for Obi?

They were also frightened by the Muslim Muslim ticket of Tinubu. Now they've seen it that Tinubu is not who they thought he was in terms of religion biases. Now they've gotten a Christian deputy Gov.

Tinubu has done well for southern Kaduna people and Obi would be deceiving himself if he thinks he would get half of what he scored in 2023.

Akpakomiza2:
If these are the states obi will get the spread, he will certainly lose. If kaduna are voting Uba Sani, then they will vote Tinubu too. No chance for obi. There's no how obi will get 25% in Bauchi except he aligns with Dogara who controls the three Christian speaking lgas