onegentleguy:
I've heard some folks screaming that the few banks that have so far released their YE 2017 result only managed to grow their top line because of the earnings remittances from trading income. ...to them this would not be sustainable and so they argue that they do not see the banks surpassing or even repeating the feat come 2018.
Well, I thought so myself too when the banks particularly those in the 1st teir category grew their top line majorly from fx related earnings in 2016. ...for just like now, I was also among those who argued that the big banks may not be able to sustain those record earnings of 2016 going into 2017. ...but then, they just did.
Looking ahead of 2018, some persons now also have a similar doubt. ...understandably so but before we draw up conclusions, let's try and put a few things in perspective;

One of the major concern of those who doubt the sustainability of a fantastic result like that of ZENITH BANK going into 2018, is that they believe that loans to the real sector has had little or no effect to their growth in earnings. ...according to some, a situation where profit had increased by over 60% while loans and advances to the real sector had decreased by over the same margin is virtual and can not hold much water.
But then I ask, was there really any better option for the banks in 2017?. ...or put in a more specific light, would the banks have been able to grow their earnings if they had tour the path of lending to the real sector?
Pls we do not need to pretend. This is Nigeria. ...a country where our level of credit worthiness is near zero. A country with a very harsh business environment. ...where the ease of doing business has been treading downwards since the inception of this administration. ...and the last time I checked, a bank like ZENITH is also nigerian.
No one should blame the banks for taking advantage of a clear opputunity of low risk arbitrage from government securities.
...just like they did from mainly fx related gains in 2016. The banks are basically trying to be flexible with a view to bettering their margins.
Besides, the weak economic indicators of 2017 coupled with the reccession clearly didn't present them with any better choice with respect to decisions required to grow their top line.
As a bank, been competent would mean that they go for risk free govt securities at high interest ahead of any 'damn' loan with high risk and which would've only aggravated their already fragile NPL ratios. ...as there was even a higher chance of an increased loan default given the inflationary pressure and many struggles on the fiscal side of the economy as at the time.
Before anything else, the banks are in business and strictly so to make returns.

Going into 2018, my take is that the big banks will most likely sustain their growth. ...and I have every reason to believe so looking at some of the core indices and the general economy at large. ...well at least for now.
Let's not also forget that there are several revenue streams for the banks. ...and interest income is just one of them.

In all, the overall performance from the management of a coy like ZENITH BANK shouldn't go without a good measure of commendation. ...as apart from the small matter of provisioning which I believe is an industry wide issue, the bank performed exceptionally well.
...I also have a slight concern with respect to the level of their disclosure.
However, an in-depth look at the 2017 YE result and that driven from their perfomance of 2016, gives less room for doubt going into 2018.
I was really impresed by the result, particularly the spike accross all major revenue lines.
I already stated it here that ZENITH BANK retains a BUY rating from my end. ...and at a good margin at that.
As at todays closure, I have a fair value that is at a nearly 51% discount from todays closing price of N28.75.
My fair price remains N43.

But then again, the market has its own way of thinking.

Disclosure: I currently do not hold zenith in my portfolio. ...but I intend to do so in ernest.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely suggestive and is merely the opinion of Onegentleguy. ...It shouldn't be interpreted to mean any kind of recommendation.
DD still always advised pls.

I agree with you that banks like Zenith, GTB will not only sustain 2017 result, but will grow it going forward.
I say so for the following reasons:
1. I do not think impairment will be as high in 2018 as it was in 2017;
2. Mgt of these companies have a better perception and positive outlook for their business,
That is the reason dividend was increase;
3. The banks anticipated a low interast regime for 2018, and so will have make adequate arrangement to sustain income,
For example investing in long dated high yield bills in 2017.

My opinion.

With the sentiment in the market now,
I will not expect any company to drop their report.

This market no get respect for report.
Report or no report, bear are everywhere.

We need prayer to drive away the bear.

PharmAlfred:
I am expecting a market rebound tommorrow and next week Friday. There is no strong indication as to the cause of this bear.

The global space hasn't been bad either.

I agree with you.

OBAGADAFFI:
Skye Inverted Hammer

That is a likely sign of upward movement, Lol.

currentprice:


if it is other company i will agree but i believe zenith will still top up this 2017 PAT in 2018

Zenith bank earnings and dividend from 2013 to date have always been higher high.

wanaj0:


There is a REASON why Zenith ALWAYS trade at a lower PE to GTB! This is the case since time IMMEMORIAL.

The percentage gap btw the earning of Zenith & GTB is reducing.
Zenith bank is way ahead of GTB in turnover.

Zenith just need to be more efficient and manage their risk assets better.
I strongly believe that Zenith bank will soon overtake GTB in both earning & price.
Like you know, Zenith bank is already ahead in Dividend and Turnover.

I am not badmouthing GTB, GTB is doing very great.
I am only saying there is hidden strength in Zenith bank, which will soon blossom.

My opinion.

Erratic Trump

Jejebaba:

Most of the time, some offers are fake to make people panic sell.

A lot of fake offers in the market sir,
and I see a lot of people selling in fear.

awesomeJ:
Is X-GEN having another UNIC craze, or did AFRIPRUD actually open at a 40k discount?

Should be qualification date right?

Share price was marked down for 2017 dividend.

The fair value for Fidelity bank is 3.38.
Fair value is arrived at by discounting EPS TTM (0.61) with 18% (10 years bond yield and 5% premium).

DD is advised.

https://invst.ly/6wvib

emmanuelewumi:


Fair value of GTBank is about N41.00

I will prefer to add 5% premium to the yield of 10years bond before using the figure to discount the EPS to get my fair value.
The 5% premium is to cover for the risk of investing in stock as against risk free investment like FGN bond.
The premium I used in my calculation is based on the risk nature of the stock in question. It can be more than 5%.

My approach.

Very sorry my brother Chibuking81,
I pray your daughter come back to you unharmed.
In Jesus name, Amen.

elpiro:


Q3 EPs is almost faded,
perhaps the price is reacting to people's anticipation of a lower DY as shown from UCAP.

Courage is needed in this market.
Mr. market is now shaking off some people from Fidelity bus, the bus will some start going north.
Be patience and courageous.


DD advised

NextProdigy:


When some of us are busy mopping it up as it falls?

Keep falling FIDELITYBK and come home to daddy.

Fidelity bank is cheap considering Q3 EPS.

DD advised.

Ucap bus is full & is about to move.

gloriousdawn:
I can see a lot of stock changing hand in Ucap.

At #3.85, Ucap is 9% (including WHT) DY.

I can see a lot of stock changing hand in Ucap.

APR result is out, recommend a dividend of 40kobo per share.

RabbiDoracle:


Not true ooo.

It may be flat. There are many stocks that will give better yield than this tasere one.

Not expecting much price advancement from Total Nig. Plc,
because, result did not beat market expectation.

DOLLARTEX:
you are welcome sir.have you collected you welcome pack? loco give him the malt now.your contribution is also needed,especially at this red eye stage.

Thank you.

gloriousdawn:


Expect additional 65kobo dividend from UBA.

My opinion.

UBA have made steady increase in their last 5years earnings.
They are doing almost 15% CAGR (in the last years including 2017 TTM).
PEG Ratio: 0.37 (Price 13.00).

gloriousdawn:


Expect some selling pressure in UBA at CP.
Breakout is a possibility.

DD apply.

Expect additional 65kobo dividend from UBA.

My opinion.

gloriousdawn:
Everywhere is green, Brent is above 66 USD.
UBA is hitting resistence, likely see a breakout tommorow.
Watchout.

Expect some selling pressure in UBA at CP.
Breakout is a possibility.

DD apply.

FCMB Price action (22/02/2018).

High: 2.40; Low: 2.28; Ave. price: 2.34; Open: 2.29; Close: 2.30.
Volume: low relative to the average volume.
Opinion: Possibility of price going lower.

DD apply.

Volume done in Fidelity bank is increasing.
Likely sign of interest at this price of N3.
Which mean a reversal is imminent.
Good morning, happy trading.

Everywhere is green, Brent is above 66 USD.
UBA is hitting resistence, likely see a breakout tommorow.
Watchout.

The twin, UBA & Access.