₦airaland Forum

Some Metrics for Dangote Flour:
EPS(TTM) N1.80, excluding profit from sale of Noodle unit;
PE 6.33;
RSI(14) <20- oversold;
Price action, Inverted hammer;
Price N11.40

A stock to watch in my opinion.

I like that likely Failure string (rejection at likely support) gradually building up in Dangote Flour.

Zenith bank, one of the stock that will make investors rich if you can wait patiently.
I am looking at 2years time frame.

Can you wait.

onegentleguy:
Gbam !!
...U my dear must be a very sharp fellow.
especially for noticing the parts in bold !!
That was why I asked Sir Wanajo to run thru the entirety of the Statement of Cash Flow and the NOTES to shareholders.
On 5 and 6, imagine after reducing facility borrowing by a whooping approx 18Billion and spending over 6Billion in investing activities, they still maintained a very healthy cash position and an above average increment in retained earnings.
...honestly, I do not know how else one can possibly describe a very competent management if not this way.

On the last part of ur statement in bold, u are also very correct. ...for the 'REVELATIONS' will all come to pass.
Soon, doubters will indeed be made to BELIEVE in the ability of Mr TIME.
...it's only a matter of time.
On DF and DS, we remain unshakable !!

I actually do not like the slow down of DF quarter on quarter.
There was a slow down in Q4 2017, and yet another slow down Q1 2018.

Though Noodle division is no more and did not contribute to Revenue in Q1 2018, Flour division is slowing down.
Some metrics:
Net finance cost, Q1 2018 (N250m), Q1 2017 (N445m);
Gross Margin, Q1 2018 (17.5%), Q1 2017 (23.7%);
Dist. & Admin cost to Revenue, Q1 2018 (9.3%), Q1 2017 (9.6%);
Net Margin, Q1 2018 (6%), Q1 2017 (8.9%).

Going by this Q1 2018 performance, I am projecting a Full year EPS of N1.80 for DF.
Using a PE of 10, which is more like the average PE of the Consumer sector (Food product) of the NSE.
I am looking at a fair value for DF to be N18, an upside of 28%.
A BUY rating.

Please trade cautiously, Election is around the corner.

You may look up the link below on IFRS 9
https://www.iasplus.com/en-us/standards/international/ifrs-en-us/ifrs9

IchimokuPilot:
Senior bros of Microfinance bank.....

Can you put togather indicators that relates to your assertion?

Mpeace:
If you put fidelity, diamond, fcmb and sterling together, you will not get fbnh.
Fbnh is bigger than access and uba

What is FBN ROE, ROTA, CAGR and Asset turnover relative to peers,
These are importance metrics in asset valuation.
Size though importance, but less important to any of the above indicators.
A stock can be big in size but, negative in the above indicators.
Be wary of such a stock my brother.

Jejebaba:
Yeah, EPS increased by 62.5%.

My fair value for FCMB is N2.6.
This is subject to the decision of Mr. Market.

onegentleguy:
I just took a cursory look at ur question again. ...probably misconstrued it the 1st time.

I think the most fitting would probably be the I & E window exchange rate, but am not too sure about this.
Perhaps the Legends in the house can help out. ...or u could consult ur investment adviser or professional banker.

However my take in the initial post still stands.

Regards.

Appreciated my Oga.

onegentleguy:
My understanding is that the banks are to adopt the new IFRS 9 reporting format.
...this will most likely have some drawdown impact on their earnings power, and by extension the shareholders fund.
I however believe that the big banks are in pole positions to wither the storm. ...they are currently well placed and with a stead to have that extra edge.
Amongst the 1st tiers, the likes of GTB, ZENITH, UBA readily comes to mind, while from the 2nd tiers, STANBICIBTC and ETI are also treading along the right path.
...I also like FCMB.

On IFRS 9, someone posted a related link on it here the other day. ...maybe u should digging that up.

Thank you.

onegentleguy:
The number of commercial transactions that are now denominated in foreign easily convertible currencies, especially the US Dollar, has astronomically increased in the last decade. ...mostly due to the benefit of retaining earnings in US Dollars, as opposed to the Naira, which is the national currency in Nigeria. One of such opportunity is the benefit of quick arbitrage that comes with shorting the system with a view to making some gains from FX differential. ...and since the managers of companies are increasingly becoming smarter/wiser, they've sought some of these means in their many quest to explore several channels to increase their earnings.

Again the International Financial Reporting Standards (...I think IFRS IAS 21) requires a foreign currency transaction to be recorded, on its initial recognition, in the functional or national currency of the concerned company, applying the spot FX rate at the date of the transaction.
IFRS IAS 20 goes further to require that at the end of each reporting accounting year-end, the foreign currency monetary items are required to be converted into the functional or national currency using the closing FX rate for the currency of the transaction.

Any resulting exchange rate difference (ie the FX rate at the date of the transaction and the FX rate at the close of the transaction) whether a profit or a loss, are required to be recognized in the Accounting Books of the company at the date when they each arise. ...and where the transaction is a continuing one, IFRS requires such investment to be initially recognized under Other Comprehensive Income and reclassified to a profit or loss position on the disposal or completion of the transaction or investment.

In summary, assets and liabilities are required to be translated and booked at the FX rate, at the end of the accounting period of each transaction. ...Income and expenses are required to be translated at the FX rate existing on the dates of each of these events. And lastly, FX rate differences are recognized under Other Comprehensive Income and subsequently reclassified to the Profit and Loss Account on the disposal or completion of the FX related transaction.

Hope this helps.

Regards.

Thank you for the explanation.
Now that we have multiple exchange rate in the country, which of the rate is banks using for their FX valuation?

Zenith bus is leaving the park.

robobo:
Dont shout hurray yet
wait until the results are audited (particular year end audit).
impairment are like bitter pills, u typically dont want to take it except if forced by an external stimuli (auditors / regulators)
so be cautious on the "promising outlook"

All banks are expected to make provision for NPL according to the guidlines, it is not a question of whether they like it or being forced.
What happened in some cases is, a bank may be compelled to take additional provision if the auditors / regulators have a different perception about a Loan / Receivable.

Net impairement loss on Loan & Receivables for banks is droping significantly.
Remember that this line item have been a major bleeding item for the banks.
2018 looks promising.

gloriousdawn:
I agree with you that banks like Zenith, GTB will not only sustain 2017 result, but will grow it going forward.
I say so for the following reasons:
1. I do not think impairment will be as high in 2018 as it was in 2017;
2. Mgt of these companies have a better perception and positive outlook for their business,
That is the reason dividend was increase;
3. The banks anticipated a low interast regime for 2018, and so will have make adequate arrangement to sustain income,
For example investing in long dated high yield bills in 2017.

My opinion.

My earlier comment on Zenith Bank.

valentinenwoko:
Pls current price, when is the ideal entry price for CI LEASING. Should I wait for further drop in price.
Thanks

If I may add my voice here, CI Leasing price is breaking below the downward sloping tread line,
I think it will be wise to observe the price action for a few more days.

DD advised.

pluto09:
Stock is FA, crypto is TA and gut.

It doesn't make sense to me to buy a stock at 26 and sell it at 25 when nothing has changed about the state of the company or the economy at large.

Just protecting your capital.

pluto09:
I don't do that with a fundamentally sound stock.

I respect your opinion.

pluto09:
As I no dey do stop loss for stock, what other strategy do we employ to manage risk?

Sell if price reverse to 25.60.

veecovee:
Will this month's candle later change colour

Most likely.
I say so because most stocks are trading at support level now.
The pull back we saw in Feb. & Mar. happened because of the massive gains recorded in Jan.
Lets always note going forward that when there is a massive gain in the prices of stock in Jan. we are most likely going to see a pull in Feb. & Mar.

Do well to look at historical chart to confirm.

pluto09:
Waiting be tower bottom again
A buy,hold or sell

A buy for Zenith, because a tower bottom, a Japanese candle pattern is forming at a support level.
Please beware of quarter one result which will be out before end of this month, this position may change if Q1 result is negative.
Remember to place your stop loss at 25.60.

Also do your DD.

fxuser:
Zenith
- price recovering early in d week above last week close on low vol
- buyers calling out d remaining bears probably

I can notice Zenith is gradually forming Tower Bottom at RSI of 34, daily timeframe.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QG7HqOzIoso

CI is coming home
Enjoy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-ImCpNqbJw

emmanuelewumi:
I am privileged to bestow you with the title " Grand Alarmist of the Thread."


Keep on with the good work, it will definitely bring some level of sanity to this thread.


Oye a Mori ooo, Amin

Congrats.

veecovee:
I'm not conversant with others as I am with u and oracle. u suppose answer myprice and not "currentprice" and with due respect oracle suppose answer "PARROT"

Lol

gloriousdawn:
Expect additional 65kobo dividend from UBA.

My opinion.

Remember this post.

gloriousdawn:
Seriously, DC is overvalue at CP.
While I commend their growth in topline, I have reservation about the following data:
Compound Annual Growth Rate for the last five years is -0.42 (Earning);
Net margin is dwindling, 2013 was 52%, while 2017 was 25%;
PEG Ratio is negative.

DD Advised.

NSE finished in red today.
Dangcem dragged us back.

gloriousdawn:
If Zenith can break the upper trend line at #31,
Then the next task will be breaking #32 resistence.

Brent is inching towards 70 USD.

If Zenith can break the upper trend line at #31,
Then the next task will be breaking #32 resistence.

Manonamission:
Example?

One example is Skye Bank.

DD Advised.

"There are more gamblers in Wallstreet than investors",
I see the same trend in NSE, otherwise, there will be no single bid for some stock, not to talk of full bid.