₦airaland Forum

Wickedfacts:
Bro, you too dey talk off point.
Mention 3 current Bayelsa politicians in the NDC. I dey wait.

You dey talk off point,mention 3 politicians that was in LP in 2023,we are talking about the people you are talking of politicians

In

CharlesCNG:
You are still missing the central argument.

My point is not that Tinubu’s political survival depends on winning the South-East. He became president in 2023 despite receiving very little support from the zone.

So, if Tinubu again records weak numbers there in 2027, it will not prevent his re-election.

The greater loss would belong to the South-East political players who failed to demonstrate electoral value within the ruling coalition.

Politics is built on leverage.

When governors, senators, ministers and party leaders tell the president that they command structures in their states, election results are the evidence used to measure that claim.

If they cannot produce even 25% for their party’s presidential candidate, their bargaining power after the election becomes weaker.

They cannot demand maximum influence while delivering minimum electoral value.

You also contradict yourself by saying governorship elections can go to APGA, while presidential elections must automatically go to Obi. If voters truly have independent minds, why must every federal election belong to one man regardless of the candidates, parties or local interests involved?

That is not independent voting. It is political ownership.

And recent elections have already shown that Obi’s endorsement is not an automatic electoral transfer. APGA remains powerful in Anambra, while APC and other parties still maintain measurable structures.

Tinubu may or may not reach 25% in SE. That remains a projection—not a prophecy.

But understand the consequence correctly: if South-East APC leaders fail to deliver meaningful votes, Tinubu may still win nationally.

They, however, will arrive at the post-election negotiation table carrying speeches instead of electoral receipts.
The original write -up was not meant for obidients. It was meant for APC SE members who voted for obi in 2023.

You are the one missing the point,the dynamics of 2023 is different from 2027,the northern votes made tinubu in 2023 because of Buhari and they are going to back Atiku now,is It only sw votes,that would make tinubu president ?

seunmsg:
Not as Vice to Obi.

Atleast,he is the only Kano man on the ballot for Presidential or vice presidential

Wickedfacts:
Mention 3 current Bayelsa politicians in the NDC. Oya, tell us.
Home of NDC but they don't have have a single LGA Chairman.
IJaws have had their shot at the Presidency under the PDP, they don't need NDC to push. It is Obi who needs NDC.

Obi will lose woefully in the SS.
In Akwa Ibom, when Udom was leading Atiku's campaign as DG, Tinubu still beat Obi.
In Edo, Monday will turn Saturday to Sunday just to see Tinubu win. The only LP Senator there sef has run to APC. The political machinery is for APC.
In Delta, the people in NDC are those who lost out in APC primaries. They are all working for Tinubu.
In Rivers, Obi is a forgone conclusion.
In Cross River, NDC has nothing there.

Even in the NDC, they know Obi is not a factor. That's why they threw out Aisha Yesufu, Peter, Morris Monye, Seun Salako and all Obidients from getting tickets.

Your problem is you overate Politicians thinking they would force people to vote for tinubu,same tinubu that Couldn't win Lagos with all the politicians backing him

Peter Obi left office without any single corruption baggage,and people wonder while the people love him and want him as President

seunmsg:
Does that Northern bloc include Kano, Kaduna, Zamfara and Borno states? Does it include the north central?

Kwankwanso would win Kano

Wickedfacts:
Leave am.
Atiku has Northern bloc but last off season election, APC beat ADC mercilessly in Atiku's own LGA.

If all these Uba Sani, Zulum, Muftwang, Akume, Ododo, Abba, catch Atiku ehn.

Off season election is not Presidential elections and Tinubu and Atiku were not candidates in the elections

Wickedfacts:
Funny enough, I agree with nearly all your points, but a few. Let me face those I don't agree with.

Firstly, with Kwankwaso not on the ballot, Tinubu will get more votes than Atiku in the North. The problem Atiku has is that Northern politicians with eyes on 2031 will sabotage Atiku. Some are not looking at contesting, they just want to be relevant in 2031 so they can cut deals with whoever is coming.

Secondly, Tinubu will take SW, NC (Benue, Plateau, Kogi, Taraba, Nassarawa, Kwara) and minimum of 5 SS states (Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Delta, Bayelsa, Edo). Obi will take his SE and maybe Cross River.

Another thing is that with Kwankwaso on Obi's side, it takes his supporters to NDC. These are people who would have voted Atiku.

Of the 3 candidates, Tinubu will score the highest number of votes.

Obi would win every SS states,Bayelsa is the first state because it is the home of NDC ,IJaws see NDC as their party.Obi would clear the whole SS states,the only place he might have issues is Rivers state .Obi won Delta in 2023 even with their Gov as vp candidate.In 2027,he would win with a bigger margin. The problem with you guys you think Govs determing votes of the whole state.Obi had no Gov in 2023 and won tinubu even in Lagos

CharlesCNG:
You are treating political hope as electoral arithmetic.

First, dismissing South-East politicians as people “nobody follows” is contradicted by recent elections. In the 2025 Anambra governorship election, Soludo and APGA won all 21 LGAs with 422,664 votes—about 80%. APC came second with 99,445, while Labour managed only 10,576 votes. At Peter Obi’s own polling unit, APC scored 73 votes against Labour’s 57. Obi was not on the ballot, but the result certainly disproves the myth that his endorsement automatically controls Anambra voters.

Earlier that year, APGA also won both the Anambra South senatorial and Onitsha North I Assembly by-elections. In Imo’s 2023 off-season election, APC’s Hope Uzodimma won all 27 LGAs with 540,308 votes, while Labour received 64,081.

So kindly name one recent South-East election in which Obi personally delivered victory to his preferred candidate.

My position remains unchanged: Tinubu does not mathematically require South-East votes to win nationally.
He won in 2023 with only 127,370 votes from the entire zone. Naturally, every serious candidate should seek more votes everywhere, but Obi’s South-East landslide did not prevent Tinubu’s national victory.

As for Kwankwaso, he is not a magic Northern vote-transfer machine. Of his 1.27 million North-West votes in 2023, about 997,000 came from Kano alone. Outside Kano, his supposed Northern army largely disappeared.

Obi’s 2023 strongest Northern performances came mainly from Plateau, Nasarawa, the FCT and parts of the Christian Middle Belt. Those votes are not permanently stored in his account. In 2027, he must defend them against APC incumbency, new coalitions, local structures and changing religious and political calculations. In the North-East he secured only 315,107 votes, and in the entire North-West just 350,182.

Kwankwaso may strengthen Obi in Kano. He cannot automatically manufacture sufficient Northern votes to replace losses elsewhere.

Tinubu did not inherit “Buhari’s votes” even in 2023. Buhari was not on the ballot, and Tinubu built his own coalition.

He secured 5.6 million votes across the three Northern zones, relying on APC organisations, governors, legislators and local political networks—not Buhari’s personal charisma.

What Tinubu possesses going into 2027 is even more valuable: organised state machinery. In the North-West, APC now has governors and structures in Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Jigawa and Sokoto, while the governors of Kano and Zamfara have also joined APC. Kano’s Abba Yusuf moved with 22 state lawmakers and several federal legislators, while Zamfara’s Dauda Lawal crossed with much of the state establishment.

Add APC governments and entrenched structures in Borno, Yobe, Gombe, Niger, Kwara, Kogi, Benue and Nasarawa, alongside Vice President Kashim Shettima and powerful local stakeholders.

So Buhari’s death did not make Northern voters politically homeless.

Tinubu’s Northern strength is no longer dependent on borrowing one man’s popularity. It rests on governors, councillors, legislators, ward executives and party organisations capable of mobilising voters community by community.

Buhari had personal followership.

Tinubu has constructed a broader institutional network—and that network is stronger today than it was in 2023.

Tinubu can't get 5percent in Anambra and 25percent in any SE state,as far as Obi is on the ballot.Governorship elections ,can go to Apga but Presidential and Senate elections goes to Obi

sunnnnyuu:
Even Buhari in the asorock couldn't stop him from winning talk less of now that he is the one in charge of the asorock? The way 2023 was rig for him, 2027 will be worse, only God can unseat the devil from that throne

Buhari helped Tinubu during the election,if Buhari wanted to stop tinubu,he would have done so during the primary.Buhari never announced a candidate during the primaries,it was all speculation.And Buhari campaigned for tinubu after he won the primary

Wickedfacts:
Which Atiku is Northern champion?
Someone who lost the last runoff election in his own Local Government.

By the way, Buhari had a CPC Governor. So, don't say he didn't have Governors with him. Tell us the Governor with Atiku.

Buhari had no CPC Gov,they won election after the presidential elections,as for run off,did Atiku contest runoff election,we are talking about presidential here

Wickedfacts:
A candidate doesn't need the South East to win elections.

The constitution has ensured that the SE is useless and that why it states 25% in 2/3 states. That's 24 states. Meanwhile, we have 36.
That's why Buhari won without the SE twice and Tinubu won once.
SE is not important in any election.

In 2027, Tinubu will win via highest number of votes for a candidate and not majority of votes cast.

A candidate don't need SE to win if he gets the block votes in North.But no Buhari now to deliver North to Tinubu,Atiku would get more votes in North than tinubu,even Kwankwanso would bring more Northern votes for Obi compared to Datti

Bosman17:
I like the way you ended it “… what do I know..”

Let me tell you for free, with all that is on ground, Tinubu will win more easily than he did the last time! The only south south state Obi might win is Bayelsa! Which other state will he win in South South? Is it Akwa Ibom where the senate president is from? Or Delta where all the power brokers are of APC or River where all the major stakeholder are under the rainbow umbrella? Let’s come to North Central… there is no single state in North central that Tinubu will not win!

You still think a Gov or senate president would determing the votes of all the state,Obi did not have any gov in 2023 and won 12 State and tinubu even in Lagos

favor914:
It isn’t Tinubu per se, it is a Yoruba issue, since Yoruba can be president, they Igbos too can be president.

Na jealousy.

It's tinubu,Igbos don't hate Osinbanjo and Makinde

Yemmysworld91:
Obi winning Kano is the only off point here. You nailed it.
But I'm guessing the OP dey whine us. Nothing serious

So tinubu would win Kwankwanso in Kano?

The effect of Obi in Abia State

CharlesCNG:
My brother, what exactly did Alex Otti “debunk”?

Otti merely said Hope Uzodimma could not speak for every South-East governor. He did not endorse Peter Obi. He did not promise Obi Abia’s votes to obi. He did not even mention Obi as his preferred candidate.

It seems you obidients have suddenly developed selective amnesia to see the obvious.

Instead, Otti carefully said people would make their decisions “at the appropriate time.” That is political language, not an Obidient victory parade.

It takes remarkable political blindness not to notice that Otti has repeatedly praised President Tinubu’s courage, supported the removal of fuel subsidy, backed exchange-rate reforms and publicly described Tinubu as a longstanding friend with whom he agrees on many important issues.

Here is what you should actually take to the bank:

By 2027, Tinubu does not need to defeat Obi outright in every South-East state. His basic strategy is simpler: expand APC’s vote, cross or approach the 25% threshold in strategic states, and drastically reduce Obi’s extraordinary 2023 margins.

Should Obi’s South-East total fall from roughly 1.95 million to below 1.3 million, while Tinubu rises substantially in Abia, Ebonyi, Imo and Enugu, it would represent a devastating political humiliation for Obi—even where he still finishes first.

Tinubu does not need the South-East to win the presidency, but South-East political heavyweights need to deliver votes for Tinubu to prove their own relevance and secure a political future in APC.

And therein lies the real 2027 battle in the South-East.

It is not Obi versus Tinubu; it is Soludo, Mbah, Umahi, Uzodimma and Otti versus Obi.

They do not even have to defeat him. They only need to secure 25%. If they fail, the embarrassment is theirs—not Tinubu’s.

Tinubu does not need SE votes according to you but you are hoping for politicians that the people don't follow to provide 25percent against Obi,tinubu won't get more than 5percent,the politicians you are hoping for can't deliver 25percent for tinubu against Obi,Obi would win tinubu in SE and SS,in the North,Obi now has Kwankwanso unlike 2023 with Datti,so Obi will get enough votes in the North this time around.Tinubu no longer have Buhari votes since he is no more,SW votes alone can't make tinubu president even the Lagos would be divided

Uten9z:
Yes. But which particular websites can I Update with?

Try the self service modification

Uten9z:
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Do you have the payment reference number,you can use it and update it

KingRabota:
Us the NIN validation working ? Because someone has been trying to verify to no avail

Maybe the NIN is a suspended Nin

cdqyehyeh:
If your mighty US dey borrow.
China and Russia get debt.
Even any progressive human dey borrow.
Its not about borrowing its about accountability, utility and how to pay back.
And the President don overexplain una still dey vex.

So Nigeria is developed like USA and China? Nigeria politicians live large than politicians over there with borrowed money

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Lanretoye:
A dot in the circle,what does it matter if he doesn’t support…as if he supported in 2023e go shock you

Dot in the circle that won Lagos , LOL

happiness440:
We have NIN facility for data capturing for Attestation Letter application in Nigeria. Digital Birth Certificate is available for those less than 18 years of age while Attestation Letter is for those above the age of 18.

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Attestation how much

kunle4toyeyaho:
you mean the ' incompetence' that paid off FX backlog of $7billion and raised foreign reserve from net $3.99b to net over$over $40b? Even Satan would laugh at your clownish comment

You mean foreign reserve have increased and he is still borrowing over 80trillion with nothing to show for it?

Lanretoye:
A dot in the circle,what does it matter if he doesn’t support…as if he supported in 2023

No Buhari Northern votes for him in 2027

Hi

CharlesCNG:
Atiku Abubakar’s recent response to former President Olusegun Obasanjo is an pathetic exercise in evasion.

Obasanjo, the man under whom Atiku served as Vice-President for eight years, has offered Nigerians what amounts to a former employer’s appraisal of his deputy. Unfortunately for Atiku, it is not a pleasant testimonial.

Imagine a man applying for the most important job in the country and announcing that his greatest qualification is his experience as Vice-President.

The interview panel then asks:

“Very good. What does the President you served under say about your character, loyalty and conduct in office?”

Suddenly, the applicant becomes angry.

He does not want the testimonial examined. He does not want his former boss questioned. He insists that the employer’s assessment is politically motivated because the employer may prefer another applicant.

That is essentially Atiku’s predicament.

Obasanjo alleged that his deputy encouraged attempts to remove him from office and gave the late Speaker Ghali Na’Abba ₦5 million to commence impeachment moves. Atiku has denied the allegation, and it must be stressed that no court has established it as fact. But instead of confronting the broader appraisal directly, Atiku’s response is built around three distractions:

Na’Abba is dead.

Obasanjo supposedly supports a kinsman.

And the allegation is intended to influence 2027.

But none of these arguments answers the central question:

What exactly was the nature of Atiku’s conduct and loyalty while serving as Obasanjo’s Vice-President?

“The grave is not a witness box” is a dramatic headline, but Na’Abba was not the only participant in that government.

Obasanjo is alive.

Atiku is alive.

Many officials who served in the Presidency, National Assembly, security services and political establishment at the time are also alive.

But Obasanjo’s possible political preference does not automatically invalidate his recollection of the government he headed.

A bad reference does not become a good reference merely because the referee may prefer another candidate.

Atiku’s strongest claim to presidential competence has always been his eight years as Vice-President. He regularly presents that period as evidence of economic experience, administrative capacity and readiness to govern.

Fair enough.

Atiku cannot claim the benefits of that employment history while rejecting the appraisal of the employer under whom the experience was acquired.

He cannot proudly display “Vice-President, 1999–2007” on his political résumé and then declare the President he served under an irrelevant, malicious stranger whenever the man discusses his conduct.

A testimonial cannot be accepted only when it praises the applicant.

This is what makes Obasanjo’s intervention politically devastating for Atiku. It does not come from an APC spokesman, a Tinubu campaign official or an opponent who observed the administration from outside.

It comes from the man who selected him, worked beside him, assigned him enormous responsibilities and witnessed his conduct at the highest level of government.

Atiku wants Nigerians to employ him as President principally because he once served as Vice-President.

But when Nigerians request a reference from the President he served, the reference letter reportedly reads like a warning notice.

That is Atiku’s real problem.

The problem is that the former boss whose administration supplies the most important entry on Atiku’s résumé appears unwilling to recommend him for the promotion he has pursued for decades.

Atiku has submitted his application for President—but his former employer’s testimonial may be the biggest reason Nigerians should return it marked: “NOT RECOMMENDED.”

What did OBJ say about tinubu?

franvincoop:
What good will it do for Obi to sweep SS and SE, when only the votes Tinubu will get in NW/NE/NC will be greater in quality and quantity?
For emphasis, In 2015 Buhari got a little more than 5000 votes in the whole Bayelsa state, but on that same day Buhari got 2 million votes in Kano State alone.
Watch your back!!!

Obi is running now with kwankwanso and not Datti that couldn't win his pooling booth,Obi will share votes in the North with Atiku and Tinubu,after Buhari, Kwankwanso is the biggest politician in the North

favor914:
Confused Hypocrites, people wey never stop everyday mass shooting in small South side Chicago, wan send marines come Nigeria?

We have too many dull people in this country.

People like you don't want the killing of christains to end

Akpakomiza2:
He will lose SS this time oga. Then the north will bury him

After Buhari,kwankwanso owns the north.The ss can't vote apc when they have NDC as their party.Even before elections start Obi have won Bayelsa already in