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Family / Re: Older Nigerian Men How Did You Survive Nigeria In Your 20s by isreddnewgreen: 7:35pm On Sep 15, 2021
hahn:


I swear. Just travel to ordinary Cotonou by road and it will seem you dropped one heavy bag at the corner.

No one is trying to be rich fast but they are enjoying themselves with 24 electricity, good roads, stable economy, cheap food etc

Just come back through the border and you go just tire undecided

Touche
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by isreddnewgreen: 6:47pm On Sep 07, 2019
courage89:


Does all these models; DDM, CAPM works for unconventional system like Nigeria. A system where high business risk levels including; fx, security, commodity, inflation, interest rate, market risks and others threatens the stability and existence of majority of stocks on NSE.

Imagine using Dividend discount model to value stocks on Nigeria stock exchange. How many stocks on nse (excluding some tier 1 banks) can we consistently predict their cashflow, eps and payout ratio? Our unconventional economy and market system have too much inbuilt risk profile that makes it highly difficult to use these models to predict direction of stocks on nse.


Triply endorsed.
I believe neither of cynicism, country-hatred or malice informed this thought of yours.
Pick your equities poison with necessary dose of salt. More careful risk-taking , likely more reward.

Careful how you stick out your neck here. G'luck.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by isreddnewgreen: 9:57pm On Jul 21, 2019
Godlylifeoneart:
CAN PEOPLE WITH BRAIN DAMAGE OUTPERFORM IN INVESTING?


https://adamfayed.com/can-people-with-brain-damage-outperform-in-investing/


It seems ridiculous, but is it really possible for somebody with brain damage, which affects the decision making parts of our brain, to beat the average investor and many professionals?

A team of academics started a simple game. Starting off with $30, you would risk $1 on a coin flip (or pass and risk no loss) if the coin came up as tails. If the coin came up as heads, you won $2.50.

So a 50/50 chance of gaining $2.50, and a 50/50 chance of losing $1. The game lasted for twenty rounds.

People with ‘normal’ brain functioning were reluctant to bet, even though the chances of winning were much greater than 50%, due to the extra $1.50 on offer for winning.

Or put another way, if you won on 10 rounds ($25 gained), and lost on 10 rounds ($10 lost), you would be up by $15. Even if you lost on 12-13 rounds, you would still be up. So the rational decision would be to bet on every round.

What is interesting, is that they were most likely to stop flipping the coin after experiencing a loss in the last round – ‘once bitten twice shy’. The pain of losing $1 discouraged these people from trying to win $2.50.

In comparison, the people with brain damage that included damaged emotional circuits bet on around 85% of rounds, even when they had previously lost $1 in the previous round.

The result? The people with brain damage outperformed by 13%-15%! In investing, many professional investors lose money, relative to the market, because of the fear of losses as well.

That doesn’t mean we should all hit ourselves over the head with a sledgehammer to get better investment results.

But it merely shows that the fear of losses is lurking in our brains, and overcoming this fear can increase your returns more than simply having great investment knowledge.


Thanks for sharing this.
When limited brain circuitry implies less doubtful rationalisations, and reduced natural dread factor. A scary tradeoff for almost any normal mind despite the apparent promise.

Insightful nonetheless on the workings of probability.

2 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by isreddnewgreen: 9:38am On Jul 10, 2019
RabbiDoracle:


Please what will make GTB get to 19+? Is there recession? Has Oil price crashed so badly that it is affecting Nigerian economy?

Oshogbo weed bad gaaan! grin

Tell 'em
Music/Radio / Re: 80's Music Playlist by isreddnewgreen: 9:49pm On Jan 21, 2019
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