₦airaland Forum

Una no dey sleep?

Out of both EU and GU at a good profits
Trading over for me this week, am gonna just stand by
the sidelines

honeric01:
Well, i know when it's enough, so i say "stay out"

U will never stop making me laugh.
U know when what is enuff? Na u be the market?

EU and GU is on the buy trend again and as such all i will be doing is to
look for buy setup till GU gets to 1.6133(already trailing my profit of over
100 pips )

EU still seems to be doing agidi but it has no choice till it gets to 1.4361,1.4463 and then
1.4547)

Sterling retreats despite uncomfortably high PPI figures, German current account surplus slipped, Japanese current account beats expectations, while markets position ahead of US & Canada labour market reports.

UK June output prices rose 5.7% y/y vs expected 5.5% and last months 5.4% rise. Output prices m/m rise 0.1% from -0.2% in May. June input inflation +17% y/y from 16.1% y/y and 0.4% m/m from -1.7%. The dilemma facing Bank of England policymakers is expected to be once again thrown into focus today with the release of UK producer prices for June. Yesterdays decision to keep rates unchanged at 0.5% would appear vindicated when looking at the latest growth figures from NIESR, which showed that in the three months to June the economy grew by a meagre 0.1%. Not exactly growth, more a mild swelling. Even allowing for that, the PPI reading on an annual basis will continue to make for uncomfortable reading .

Germany May current account surplus slipped to an expected EUR 6.9 bln from a revised EUR 9.0 bln, with exports +4.3% (vs exp +1.5%) and imports +3.7% (vs exp +1.5%)

In Asia the Japanese current balance for May came in slightly better than expected, showing a surplus of 391bn yen, up on expectations of 215bn, but below Aprils 546bn, indicating that the economy still appears to be struggling with the after effects of the earthquake but appears to be making better than expected progress.

The recent rise in the Canadian dollar could come to a shuddering halt today with the release of Canadian employment data. Canadas unemployment rate is expected to stay constant at 7.4%, while the net change in employment for June is expected to slip back to 10k, from Mays robust 22.3k figure.
In the US, market expectations for a positive non-farms payroll report for June have been heightened by yesterdays blow-out 157k ADP number

Am LOVING GU AND EU

Buy buy buy
STAY IN STAY IN STAY IN

News BAD BAD BAD FOR DOLLAR

Time to buy buy buy and buy

odiaero:
We is everybody?

Waiting for NFP

Bank of England set to hold rates while growth concerns remain, with industrial and manufacturing data set to remain weak, ECB expected to hike rates despite debt and economy concerns, Australian employment data weighs on AUD, while US awaits ADP.

Recent economic data from the UK has seen the Bank of England hold rates at historic lows for a lot longer than most people had anticipated. Todays release of industrial and manufacturing production data for May is unlikely to change the belief of MPC policymakers that the UK economy remains too fragile to withstand a rate rise. Expectations are for a recovery from Aprils disappointing figures, though one has to remember that the Royal Wedding and Easter break played a large part in the disappointing April numbers. Both industrial and manufacturing production are expected to rise 1%.

Later in the day the Bank of England will likely announce that interest rates will remain on hold at 0.5%, so there shouldnt be any surprises there, given recent dovish comments from various policymakers.

It is in Europe that we could see some fireworks given the recent volatility caused by the recent ratings downgrade of Portugal by Moodys, and the rather hysterical European politicians reaction to it. There appears to be definitely a case of shooting the messenger, however it could be argued that the recent tightening policies of the European Central Bank arent exactly helping. Recent economic data appears to suggest that economic growth is starting to slow, especially in Spain and Italy and recent retail sales data in Germany and the Euro zone has been pretty awful.

Even so it will be a major surprise if the ECB does not raise rates by 0.25%, thus increasing borrowing costs to 1.5%, and putting further pressure on, not only the consumer in Europe, but also on peripheral bond yields with Italian 10 year yields already hitting levels last seen in 2008 in trading yesterday.

The tone of Trichets press conference will also be quite key, especially in view of recent events. Will he be hawkish or dovish, in other words will he flag up further rate rises down the line, or will he play down market expectations of further rises and adopt a wait and see approach. If he adopts a wait and see approach, which would seem logical given the softness of recent data, and market turmoil, then the single currency could start to slide again.

Yesterday's Chinese rate hike had seen the Australian dollar fall back, while this weeks RBA rate meeting had suggested that further tightening might be some way off due to a slowing economy. Today's unemployment report for June came in contrary to that belief suggesting that the economy still appears to be moving along nicely, showing a net gain of 23.4k jobs, above expectations of 15k, while the unemployment rate stayed constant at 4.9%.

In the US today's ADP data for June and weekly jobless are set to give the markets a taster for tomorrows all important June non-farm payrolls report.

odiaero:
Hi Blessing, can u please show me your bottom? i want to analyse Gold Chart on it, Monkey , no go find work do

Spend money for Blessing now and stop keeping
all the pips to your self.

Are we there yet?

GBP and EUR ignore positive data; PBoC raises rates; ISM services is next

USD started to gain yesterday on the news of Portuguese multinotch downgrade by Moodys. This trend has continued throughout Asia and London and continues into New York morning. PboC increases interest rates, GBP and EUR ignore positive data. Focus turns to ISM services PMI.

Chinese central bank hiked interest rates 25 basis points to 6.56% today, ahead of next weeks CPI data. This is already a third hike this year confirming official concerns over increasing inflation. Even though todays rate increase does not come as a surprise, the reaction is fairly typical as the AUD is hit the hardest.

As a consequence of Moodys downgrade, periphery bonds spreads continue to widen which is adding pressure on the already falling Euro. Portuguese-German spread on the 10 year bond reached its highest level since Euro was introduced, over 1046 bps.

UK mortgage lender Halifax reported that House Price Index rose 1.2% in June, significantly higher than Mays 0.4% and German Manufacturing Orders for May reached 1.8% while analysts expected -0.5%. Neither of these releases was able to improve the risk off sentiment.

New York session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with Canadian Building Permits for May. Analysts expect a significant increase to 5.1% from the previous, shockingly bad print of -21.1%. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for June is due at 10:00 am ET and market expects a slight decrease to 53.9 from previous 54.6.

honeric01:
^^^^

Be careful, 4200 is not far away.

GBAM

odiaero:
Happy i short EU at the top most point

U dey watch my platform?
Am loving EU

perfect time to sell EU

UK Construction PMI in focus after disappointing manufacturing on Friday, Eurozone PPIs seen slipping back but rate hike this week remains likely, S&P makes another Greek warning, China slowdown fears increase after non manufacturing PMIs slip, Australian retail sales.

Sterling looks set to remain in focus today, as it trades near 15 month lows on its trade weighted index, with the release of the latest construction PMI data for June. Given that Fridays manufacturing data was a little disappointing, markets remain concerned that further weakness will raise fears about the sustainability of UK growth and prompt concern about further QE, a subject which seems to be being given greater discussion on the MPC.

While the probability of further QE in the short term remains unlikely the mere fact it is being speculated upon highlights the fragile state of the UK economy.

Expectations are for small fall back to 53.5, from Mays 54.

In sharp contrast the talk in Europe remains of the next rise in rates despite evidence that price pressures may be starting to slip back. This mornings PPI figures for May are expected to show a decline of 0.1% month on month, while the year on year figure is expected to slip back from 6.7% in April to 6.3%. Despite this the ECB is expected to raise rates by another 0.25% this week, despite the risks such a move would have on struggling peripheral economies borrowings costs. You would think that the recent events in Greece would give them pause, however Trichet repeated his strong vigilance message last week, which historically presages a rise in borrowing costs.

In signs that the Greek saga will continue to rumble on ratings agency Standard and Poors reminded the markets this morning that for all the talk of loan rollovers and debt relief such an event would in all likelihood be treated as a credit event or selective default.

Concerns about a slowdown in China remain in focus after non-manufacturing PMI data slipped back from 61.9 in May to 57 in June. While on its own these figures dont appear to be that bad, following as they do on the back of the disappointing manufacturing PMIs on Friday, there is a concern that the recent policy tightening may well be starting to do its job too well.

It would appear that consumer reluctance to spend isnt being confined to western economies after Australian retail sales slipped back sharply in May, falling 0.6%, after the 1.1% rise in April, with clothing being amongst the hardest hit. Expectations had been for a 0.3% rise. Building approvals also plunged, falling 7.9% as rising prices start to weigh on demand.

blackgucci:
Its beautiful when you trade your plan, money management is twice as important as your trading method, When you can afford to loose mildly 60 percent of your trades and win very well 40 percent of the time , you have become a trader, cut your losses, let your profit ride, its hard for anyone to announce a loosing streak, You cant control the maket, you can only swim in the direction of its tide. Have a fun weekend. And while you sit over a table toast to a pipfull week ahead.

Well said man well said

odiaero:
Man something keep telling all these uptrends is not ok

ha ha ha ha ha.I don pack my own comot sha.

naijababe:
Bros, my mantra is if in doubt, stay out. I am staying out until I can understand what's going good. Congrats on your pip harvest

odiaero:
Am with you, i no wan catch cold for this up trend matter

Even My dear Odiaro
What has happened to all your adventurous spirit?

odiaero:
Man i no fit join u for that ride, go alone

LOL, I love joining the trend at the beginning of the trend.
I have done over 300pips on GU alone with different entering
points cos i know it is bound to go up.

If u understand price action, u will find it hard to loose in forex.

odiaero:
Enjoy alone, i will join u maybe when the new monthly candle begins

I hope it wont be too late by then cos the thing don dey fly ooo

odiaero:
?

Am still with the uptrend on GU man
Who wan join me ooo

Its such a wonderful place to buy GU, Lets go there

naijababe:
As for me, I'm only going to take shorts on the $ pairs. Just shorted the EU at 1.4290, plan to ride it to around 1.3900. I'm also hoping that GU will get to around 1.6040, then I'll take a short there to ride to 1.5800

Tread softly on selling gu cos i believe it should retrace beyond
1.6040 b4 taking anoda dive down.My 2kobo

Kashif:
You better start paying more attention to your charts, than news. Placing a lot of emphasis on news exposes you to emotional lockdown, and recency bias. I paid dearly for this when I started. Please be guided.

Understanding the sentiment behind currency pairs is very important
and no other means u will be able to get that except through fundamentals.
However,where most people get it wrong is that they focus on the brief news
that forex factory release instead of focusing on the overall effect of market
sentiment.

odiaero:
Wake up people

We still dey sleep jor.

China pledges to remain a key buyer of Eurozone debt, Italy and Greece concerns to keep investors cautious, US treasury yields hit 2011 low.

Euro remains under pressure, despite weekend comments from Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jaibao to European policymakers, and Europe at large, that China would remain a key buyer of European sovereign debt. While welcome news it is highly probable that any such help will more than likely come with onerous strings attached, in spite of Chinas desire to have an alternative to the US dollar as a reserve currency. With that in mind it isnt too hard to spot their motives in trying to help keep the euro project alive. Despite this pledge the fears appear to have spread beyond Greece towards Italy.

Bear in mind it is Italian banks which are likely to remain a key concern after last weeks actions by Moodys in downgrading as the focus on Europes sovereign debt crisis shifts towards both Spain and Italy with their 10 year bond yields moving inexorably higher on Friday, with Spanish 10 year yields pushing back towards the highs seen last May at 5.7%.

With respect to banks, European politicians remain concerned about French, German and Spanish bank exposure towards Greece debt with talk from France suggesting that some French banks might be prepared to roll-over up to 70% of their exposure to Greek government bonds in the hope that a default can be avoided.

GBP expected to remain under pressure ahead of the final release of Q1 GDP tomorrow.

Continued deadlock in the debt ceiling talks doesnt appear to doing US treasuries any harm for the moment with US 10 year bond yields hitting their lowest levels this year at 2.84%, breaking below the key 2.88% level. They could well continue lower as capital continues to flow out of European bond markets and into US treasuries.

Fridays slightly better than expected US economic data was brushed aside by investors.

Todays US economic data for May is personal income, spending and consumption data which is due out prior to the US open.

odiaero:
2k made already from NZDUSD jump, Are we there yet

Too much swags

The thing dey make ur blood run like this
Na wa ooo. I wonder wetin u dey do during decmber
period when market no dey too move like that and
broker dey increase spread like madt.

odiaero:
Yah man, i feel like going to the Cinema and watch like two movies to speed u time, but am flying now( not real but virtual on FSX) from Dubai to lagos, which will take me normal real flight time ( 8hours) to land in lagos, by then the market is active

. U are a clown.

odiaero:
Few hours to go

My man u are the true definition of
sleep,eat,drink,think,talk,work and walk forex.

Your passion for this game is unmatchable.