₦airaland Forum

Wow time surely runs these days.
Abeg name the thing season2 jor.

Are we there yet?

French PMIs German and EZone ZEW survey, Swiss exports could show further declines raising prospect of further intervention, Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI slides further provoking further concerns about a slowdown, Richmond Fed

Fears of a double dip recession in Europe could gain further traction this morning, if in the wake of recent disappointing growth figures in the core countries, the latest flash PMI data for France, Germany and the Euro zone continue to point to a further slowdown in services and manufacturing.

French manufacturing PMI data for August is expected to slip back to 49.7 from 50.5 in July, while its euro zone equivalent is expected to also contract to 49.5 from 50.4. Even German data is expected to come in weak at around 50.6 from Julys 52 reading.

Economic sentiment in Germany is also expected to weaken further according to the ZEW survey, with expectations of a further slump to -26 from -15.1 in July, further raising questions of the ability of Germany to backstop any euro bond even if it wanted to.

Notwithstanding all of this further disappointing data out of Germany could well sour sentiment further with respect to willingness to bail out the peripheral economies, especially in light of the latest Bundesbank report which questions the democratic legitimacy of the recent bailouts under the current EU treaty.

Concerns about new central bank intervention from the Swiss National Bank are likely to increase if Swiss exports for July show increased declines due to the strength of the franc.

Fears of a slowdown in China have diminished slightly after preliminary HSBC Manufacturing PMI, despite contracting again in August, recovered from last months figure coming in at 49.8. This recovery has raised hopes that China is not heading for a significant slowdown in the wake of last weeks disappointing data from Europe and the US.

After last weeks shocking Philadelphia Fed numbers, attention is expected to turn to this afternoons Richmond Fed for August, where it is hoped that the Philly numbers will be shown to be a one-off. US new home sales for July are also due out.

Gold has continued its recent surge higher again making new highs against the US dollar, euro and the British pound.

aguiyi:
fellow traders,
you will agree with me that doing a particular thing over and over again, will make you a pro in doing that thing.Take table tennis for instance.
the more you play it the better you become but when you play table tennis,football, basket ball and maybe volley ball altogether ,you will be nothing more than a jack of all trade and a master of none.

concentration is key in this business, choose one pair and trade it well you will surely smile at the end of every week but when you jump from one pair to another, you will most definitely make more mistakes because your focus is shared

try this for just one week and share your results

happy piping

You hit the nail on the head man.I never start to make consistent profits
till i focus on just one pair and then after 6months i graduated to 2pairs
which i have been doing for the past 1year now.
This advice is especially good for the newbies.
Focus is the key in this game and the more u understand a
particular pair the more profit you make.

Iseoluwa
Kosehinoluwa
Ogheneovoaporuwekwe(Beat that). I even lost count self

Currency concerns dominate central banks with Bank of Japan eyed regarding yen rise.
Swiss National Bank also in focus despite recent CHF weakness,
ECB set to continue bond buying, while Fed eyed as Jackson Hole looms.
Gold rises and oil weakens.

aguiyi:
bro,good to be back

@ thread,
does anybody trade the gbpnzd, it makes over 300 pips per day,am loving the pair

Thats one hell of a crazy pair.
I have played around it couple of times
in the past.Not good for newbie

RBA leaves rates unchanged citing growth uncertainty in Europe and US, Growth worries in UK ahead of construction PMI, Eurozone PPI expected to slip back and ease pressure for higher rates as ECB meets this week. US House passes debt ceiling bill

This mornings decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave rates unchanged at 4.75% wasnt too much of a surprise, even allowing for last weeks surprise rise in CPI. There has been some debate in recent weeks about the future direction of Australian interest rates, however the recent tightening in China along with some evidence of a slow down, amid uncertainty in Europe and the US has staid the RBAs hand.

The bank said that it remains concerned about the medium-term outlook for inflation and did consider whether recent information warranted further policy tightening, but given the fact that recent economic data has shown that downside risks for global growth has increased, it was felt prudent to leave rates as they were.

In the UK yesterday's July manufacturing PMI was a shocker, coming in at 49.1 and contracting for the first time since the recession in 2009, on the back of subdued domestic demand, even though export orders continue to remain strong. Today's July construction PMI should come in around 53.1, a slight decline from the 53.6 in June, but probably wont be enough to assuage concerns that the UK economy is starting to grind to a halt. Tomorrows services number will be the key number in that respect, given that services is the major contributor to UK GDP. As it is pressure is starting to build on the government to look at a plan B in light of yesterdays downgrading of 2011 growth forecasts by the CBI to 1.3% from 1.7%.

Pricing pressures in Europe could well start to ebb away despite last weeks slightly higher than expected German inflation numbers, with PPI prices for June expected to slip back slightly on a year on year basis from 6.2% to 5.9%. Given that Italian and Spanish 10 year yields are pushing the wrong side of the 6% level the last thing these countries need is a high inflation number given the ECBs almost one eyed gaze on suppressing higher prices with interest rate rises. This weeks ECB meeting will certainly be closely scrutinised for any mention of strong vigilance if todays numbers coming in on the high side.

Market relief on debt ceiling agreement, Europe PMIs set to remain weak as growth fears weigh, UK Manufacturing PMI set to slip amidst UK growth concerns, US ISM.

Friday's disappointing US GDP and Chicago PMI data have raised fears of a global soft patch on the back of the recent uncertain global fiscal backdrop. The debt ceiling agreement announced overnight has been greeted with some relief by equity markets in Asia, and will no doubt carry a positive read across when markets open in Europe this morning.

Under the proposed agreement a $1trn increase in the debt-ceiling would be coupled with an immediate $1trn cut in discretionary spending. A further increase beyond 2012 would be decided by a bipartisan committee to propose another $1.5trn of cuts, tax changes and increases, which would need to happen by November.

If this committee fails to come to an agreement on the second part, automatic cuts would be triggered to programs that both Republicans and Democrats have insisted were red line issues. Investors are still expected to remain nervous until any agreement is signed off by both houses, and then signed off by the President.

Despite this deal the outlook for the coming months growth wise still appears to be deteriorating.

Fears about China's growth story appear to be throwing out mixed messages about China's economy after the latest manufacturing PMI data for July. The HSBC manufacturing measure of PMI moved into contraction territory at 49.3, however the official PMI figure increased in July from 50.2 to 50.7.

This morning's manufacturing PMI data for July for Europe and Germany is likely to continue the weaker theme with German manufacturing PMI set to remain unchanged from the last reading at 52.1 and Euro zone PMI set to just about remain in expansionary territory at 50.2. This weaker PMI, especially in the Euro zone looks likely to increase concerns about the weaker European economies like Spain and Italy.

Concerns are growing about Spain's borrowing costs on the back of Fridays events with respect to Moody's putting the country on notice of a downgrade, while political uncertainty is about to be added to the mix after PM Zapatero announced the dissolution of parliament for September for a general election in November.

If he loses the election there is no guarantee that any new government will carry out any new austerity measures that need to be implemented in order for the country to avoid being dragged into the mire of needing a bailout. With 10 year yields above 6%, and heading towards the danger level of 7%, any further uncertainty is the last thing the country needs at this moment.

honeric01:
Odiaero must be scalping in volumes now


he must have made $350k in 30 minutes.

Big man, big yatch, big money

More ratings downgrades and slowing economic data in Europe raises fears about growth, German unemployment set to fall, Japanese retail sales continue to recover, US debt ceiling row overshadows growth concerns

Yesterdays downgrades of Cyprus by Moodys and Greece by S&P have refocused the markets attentions back onto the euro zone, even amongst all the trials and tribulations across the Atlantic Ocean in the US, with respect to the debt ceiling and fears about the USs AAA credit rating.

Combined with the recent slowdown in economic data in Europe, particularly in peripheral countries, the fear remains that contagion could well be starting to spill over into Italy and Spain.

Rising bond yields continue to reflect the stresses in the financial system especially in relation to Spain and Italy.

Yesterdays disappointing Italian business data has raised concerns about the ability of Italy to grow, in the face of a shrinking economy, spending cuts and a high euro.

Higher than expected German CPI data for July yesterday has also raised fears that the ECB may look at raising rates again in the near future given Noyers comments earlier this week. Concerns about German economic data have already started to manifest themselves in shrinking consumer confidence, falling PMIs and poor retail sales figures. Todays release of unemployment data is not expected to add to these fears but it wouldnt be a surprise if it did. Unemployment for July is expected to fall by 15k, while the unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 7%.

Euro zone consumer confidence for July is also expected to remain at fairly low levels with expectations of another negative figure of -11.4, while the business climate index is expected to decline as well to 0.83.

In signs that Japanese consumers are slowly regaining their confidence after the tsunami three months ago, retail sales for June continue to improve on previous months with both the month on month and year on year figures moving into positive territory. Monthly retail sales rose 2.9% well above expectations of 1.5% and lifting the year on year figure into positive territory to 1.1% against expectations of a decline of 0.5%

In the US continued fears about economic recovery are playing second fiddle to the wranglings around raising the debt ceiling and agreeing a budget. Yesterdays Beige Book showed growth slowing in 8 out of the 12 regions, with particular concern with respect to the housing and employment market. Republicans plan to vote today on a reworking of speaker John Boehners proposal to cut nearly $1trn over 10 years. As the sides move closer together one of the sticking points appears to be the Republican demand for a second debt limit vote before the 2012 elections.

Weekly jobless claims are due out later this afternoon with hopes that the number will start to come down to the levels seen a couple of months ago when the numbers were below 400k.

odiaero:
Are we there yet?

Yes

If you follow fundamentals, you would attribute the euros rise to the Reuters policy paper,
outlining solutions for Eurozone debt, and to reports of a looming agreement in Greek debt.
And if you follow strictly technicals, you would explain the bounce via the strength of the $1.40 support,
coinciding with the important 200-week moving average in EURUSD.

odiaero:
As far as it does not affect trading, no problem

Affects trading ke?
For where?

Eurozone Policy Paper Boosts Sentiment; Onto BoC Rate Announcement
USD drops amid improving sentiment based on Eurozone policy paper. Euro ignores disappointing German and Eurozone ZEW indices. Markets awaits BoC rate decision and US housing data.

USD started to weaken across the board even before London traders got to their desks. The much improved sentiment can be attributed to a policy paper that describes three main options how to tackle the Greek problem. The options range from debt buyback with credit enhancements to taxing the banking sector with no buybacks. Also included is the French plan that would lower bond rates while extending maturities. As there are various options on the table, there are growing chances that Eurozone leaders will reach an agreement in Thursdays summit.

On the data front, German ZEW Economic Sentiment index dropped to -15.1 in July from Junes -9 and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment fell to -7 from previous -5.9.

Gold pulled back slightly off the new highs but continues to trade above $1600. Until Thursdays meeting or more importantly until the US debt ceiling situation is resolved gold is likely to continue ralling.

New York session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with Canadian Leading Indicators index for June which is expected to improve to 1.2% from previous 1.0%. The reaction is likely to be muted as CAD traders will wait for the much more important Bank of Canada rate decision at 9:00 am ET. Interest rates are expected stay where they have been since September 2010 at 1.0%.

Both CPI and core CPI have been gradually increasing and jumped higher last month. The labor market has been improving steadily, albeit at a slow rate. Even though the interest rate will likely stay the same today, the CAD could rally on the accompanying BoC rate statement that could signal upcoming interest rate increases.

News from the US include housing data released at 8:30 am ET. Building Permits are expected to reach 0.61M, the same result as a month earlier. Analysts expect the Housing Starts to improve to 0.58M from previous 0.56M.

odiaero:
Are we there yet?

YES

Gold hits the $1600 level on safe haven flows escaping the US & Eurozone debt fears. Bank stress tests prove to be anything but, as attention turns to Greeces second bailout, US debt ceiling discussions remain in stalemate, UK house prices slip back, New Zealand CPI hits 21 year high.

Fridays European banking stress tests turned out to be anything but stressful with only 8 banks from 91 tested falling below the minimum tier 1 ratio of 5% and another sixteen needing at least 25.8bn of extra funds to get their tier 1 capital ratios above 6%.

Despite widespread scepticism about the credibility of the tests, with no Irish or Portuguese banks failing the main focus this week will be on this weeks meeting with respect to another 100bn bailout of Greece.

There remains widespread disagreement between the European Central Bank, who remain opposed to any type of default, and the Bundesbank who rule out any type of Eurobond plan that would underwrite all peripheral debt at what they see as at taxpayers expense.

In a sign that markets are losing faith with politicians ability to get on top of the crisis Italian 10 year bond yields continued to rise even after the passing of the austerity budget in the Italian parliament. It is a worrying development for Europes third largest economy and a sign that Prime Minister Berlusconi has lost the confidence of the markets and is seen as a liability.

In the US things arent much better with continued wrangling between Democrats and Republicans over the raising of the debt ceiling. The Republicans are set to vote on their own $2.4trn worth of cuts in the House they control, which in reality means nothing given that it would not pass through the Democrat controlled chamber. President Obama remains committed to including tax rises in any new measures, something the Republicans remain ideologically opposed to.

In the UK in further signs of a slowing economy Right Move house prices for July fell 1.6%, wiping out Junes gain of 0.6% and highlighting the precarious state of the UK economy in the face of rising prices and economic uncertainty. These figures would seem to reinforce the Bank of Englands concerns about the UK economy ahead of the release of the latest minutes this Wednesday.

New Zealand CPI hits a 21 year high at 5.3% year on year, rising more than expected and sending the kiwi to new record highs against the US dollar.

Na wa ooo,this place don turn to world war ooooo

bidemi12:
Until people fully realise and understand that price action is the sole key to fx success, it will continue to elude the 95%. news, pivot points, candle reading and all that crap dont work. it might for a while but for how long. news effect is temporary, indicators are lagging, pivot points only tells you reaction points, where and what it is reacting to you dont know. candle reading? year right!!! i just dont get what traders see in that. I believe brokers put all these crap into our heads from day one to ensure people lose and keep coming back for more.

You just hit the nail on the head.I have said it over and over again
here on the this thread that price action is the answer.

Bidemi am working on something that i want you to be part of,i will
let you in in due time man.
CHEERS

Italian bond auctions in focus ahead of Italy austerity budget vote, Fitch downgrades Greece, Moodys warns US as debt talks stall while Bernanke hints at QE3, US retail sales and jobless claims due, Gold and Swiss franc surge

Todays focus in Europe is likely to be the series of Italian bond auctions due later this morning with a range of maturities from 2016 to 2026. Given that this time last week 10 year bond yields in Italian paper were around 5% and now they are at 5.5%, albeit down from this weeks highs at 6.05%, these will be watched closely. The potential for failure here could be quite high, if there is any doubt about the conviction of Italian politicians to pass the austerity budget.

Given that Fitch downgraded Greece late last night three notches to CCC, following on the heels of Moodys downgrade of Ireland the night before, the stakes couldnt be any higher.

This mornings Euro zone CPI numbers for June are likely to be no more than a foot note when set against this backdrop, but are set to remain at 2.7% with core CPI remaining at 1.5%, highlighting the folly of the ECB in hiking interest rates last week.

Late last night ratings agency Moodys decided to invite the US to the downgrade party putting a rocket under the Democrat and Republican politicians as the talks on the debt ceiling appeared to be hitting the buffers once more. The review of the US government's bond rating is prompted by the possibility that the debt limit will not be raised in time to prevent a missed payment of interest or principal on outstanding bonds and notes. As such, there is a small but rising risk of a short-lived default.

Coming as it did on the back of Bernankes testimony to Congress where he gave the impression that the Fed would consider further QE if the economy continued to slow, the news sent the dollar into a nose dive.

The fact that further QE would be politically difficult to implement has been overlooked for now by the markets as the USs own debt problems get an airing in the market. Even so given the backlash the last stimulus package received at home as well as abroad, there has to be some doubt as to whether further QE would receive the support it would need.

The current weakness in the US dollar is not likely to play well with Japanese authorities and could make the current weakness extremely nervy and choppy, with intervention always a threat.

US retail sales for June are expected to highlight that the US consumer remains under pressure from increasing prices, while weekly jobless claims are expected to slip back slightly.

As would be expected safe haven assets gold and the Swiss franc have surged to record highs with more gains seeming likely.

Quantitative Easing (QE)is a government monetary policy occasionally used
to increase the money supply by buying government securities or other securities from the market.
Quantitative easing increases the money supply by flooding financial institutions
with capital in an effort to promote increased lending and liquidity.

More often than not Central Banks tend to use quantitative easing when interest rates
have already been lowered to near 0% levels and have failed to produce the desired effect.
The major risk of quantitative easing is that although more money is in the economy but
there is still a fixed amount of goods for sale. This will eventually lead to higher prices or inflation.

So as much as Govt is trying to pump more money to the economy,the fear of inflation always makes them
think twice.More money chasing few goods will lead to inflation.

austinedu:
@JAZES The EU meeting draws no resolution today. What is your take on the impact of their inability to resolve issues vis-a-vis the pending US - FOMC Minutes?

On FOMC, i think the market will search for clues regarding monetary policy and
the possibility of an additional round of QE(i.e quantitative easing) or
other type of easing (rate caps on 2-3 year or 10 year bond).
The market will probably not react much to this event as most details were already
covered in the press conference right after the rate decision.

honeric01:
Yes bro you gave me but i stored your number on another phone which is not with me for now, anyways i just sent someone to get for me elsewhere, it's okay, there's a next time.

BTW, are you seeing what's happening in the market? what's the strength of JPY?

No problem man.
Omo market dey vex now and of course pips dey
rain down

Europe discord threatens further euro losses, UK data set to show inflation steadied, while weak pound sees no change in trade deficit, German June CPI matches May's at 2.4%, Japan leaves rate policy unchanged, FOMC minutes.

Continued discord amongst EU leaders with respect to the best way to resolve the current crisis in Europe continues to undermine confidence in the single currency. Talk of voluntary private sector participation appears to have run into a cul-de-sac. With Germany refusing to guarantee peripheral bonds and the ECB refusing to buy them a solution looks a long way away.

As a result Spanish and Italian 10 year bond yields have surged to dangerous levels for both countries, 6% for Spain and 5.7% for Italy.

Hopefully todays resumption of the meeting yesterday will come up with something more tangible than the discord that saw the meeting break up last night, with a vague promise to enhance and improve the flexibility of the EFSF. This could be in the form of using bond buybacks to ease Greeces debt burden according to Olli Rehn.

UK inflation data for June is due out and is unlikely to offer much in the way of comfort to Mervyn King and his MPC cohorts with CPI expected to remain at 4.5%, with core at 3.3%. RPI is also not expected to slip back wither remaining at 5.3%. These figures will bring the inevitable call for a rise in interest rates and also bring about the response that a rise in rates would kill off any recovery. The weak pound isnt expected to have helped with respect to the May Trade balance data either with expectations that the deficit would remain around the 7.3bn mark.

Before the UK data, German CPI data for June was unrevised unchanged m/m, and rose 2.4% y/y from May's +2.4% .

The Japanese rate decision overnight didnt offer much in the way of surprises leaving rates unchanged, however it cut its growth forecast for the fiscal year to 0.4%, from 0.6% but was slightly more upbeat about its economic assessment as the economy recovers from the after effects of the March earthquake and tsunami.

In the US the May trade numbers are also expected to remain elevated, around $44bn, while the release of the latest FOMC minutes isnt likely to offer too many clues about future policy steps from this months Fed meeting.

Attention shifts to Brussels and Eurogroup meeting as concerns about Italy mount, China inflation hits 6.4% and trade surplus widens, while aftershock from US payrolls shifts to start of earnings season and tomorrows FOMC minutes. Sterling rebounds ahead of inflation data this week.

With little in the way of economic data today the focus looks likely to remain on the ongoing situation in Europe with todays meeting in Brussels of euro zone finance ministers. Reports at the weekend suggest that EU leaders are beginning to think about ways of lowering the debt burden on Greece, though how this would be worked out isnt likely to take some form of shape for some weeks yet. Concerns about Italy remain as Italian regulator insists on full disclosure of short positions ahead of this weeks bank stress test results.

Concerns about the global recovery continue to weigh on investors this week after Chinas inflation rate jumped to 6.4% for June, while the trade surplus widened to $22.7bn, driven higher by a slide in imports as growth starts to slow and demand drops off. A 14.4% rise in food prices drove the rise in inflation which explains last weeks rise in interest rates.

On Friday attention briefly switched to the US and the extremely disappointing payroll figures for June, which came significantly lower than expected and have raised concerns about the sustainability of the current US economic recovery, amidst the backdrop of the stalemate between Republicans and Democrats with respect to the raising of the debt ceiling and fears of a possible US default.

Current market thinking is that policymakers will see sense and avert such a scenario, however politicians could well take it to the wire as each side looks to the other to see who will blink first.

Fridays payroll figures have raised expectations of further QE, however this seems unlikely given the current political deadlock and we could well see the Feds thinking with respect to this with tomorrows release of the latest FOMC minutes. With earnings season starting tonight with Alcoas results markets will be looking for any silver linings with respect to a rebound in risk after Fridays nasty surprise.

The pound was also be in focus this week, having rebounded on the back of European woes with both inflation and retail sales data due out, however it is likely that prices will continue to remain high and sales sluggish, especially given this weekends news of inflation busting energy price rises, this time from British Gas, starting next month.

Am loving EU