₦airaland Forum

thebargainhunte:
An investment of ₦1,000,000 in GTBank shares at a price of ₦37 per share in 2007 would have yielded 27,027 units. After accounting for all subsequent bonus issues, the total holding would stand at approximately 113,613 units today.

Extending the analysis further back to 2004, when the share price was ₦17, the same ₦1,000,000 investment would have secured 58,823 units. With bonuses included, this position would have grown to approximately 3,676,438 units as of today.

Despite the growth in units, the overall performance does not appear particularly impressive when evaluated against alternative investment opportunities.

₦1 million invested in GTCO in 2004 that results in 3.6 million+ units of shares today will be valued at nearly ₦350 million in capital appreciation alone, excluding dividends, at current price of ₦97 ps. I don't know of any other investment more valuable than this unless you gave wrong numbers

emmanuelewumi:
Stocks are overpriced based on what?

Are you a trader or an investor?



Please explain the last statement, " never knew holding assets in USD is illiquid".

Most stocks with good fundamentals have already done 3x to 8x minimum. The best time to have invested in ngx would have been between mid 2023 and mid 2024.

Even those that have retraced from their ath, you discover that their ascension there wasn't supported by good fundamentals, so buying at their retracement is a gamble, e.g Oando due to president connection. If Tinubu doesn't win 2027, that stock is going to dust - just a guess.

Looking at most ngx trading sessions u will find that stocks that are still worth buying are highly illiquid, even with their bogus outstanding shares. You start wondering why a company will have 3 billion OS but less than 3 million is available for trading daily. This is why the stocks can easily do multiple Xs - low liquidity.

The game changer for ngx would be a platform that allows buying and short selling of stocks, increased liquidity for all stocks, lending and borrowing of stocks at minimum interest rate, 24/7 trading window and removal of maximum and minimum percentage change that a stock can move in a day. This will make the ngx truly decentralised. Right now, it looks like a gambling house controlled by a few.

The wise investor is better off investing when there's a big crash or when there's been a bear market for at least 9 months, not when everywhere is green and people are looking for exit. Ngx can be a terrible market when you want to exit. You won't find liquidity, so most are forced into bag holders or investors.

All of the above can make it difficult for someone to easily decide to convert their USD portfolio into ngn and put in ngx. Add the unstable environment and flipfopping gvt policies and you will see why one can potentially lose opportunities by sticking with USD that bears no attractive returns and ngn in ngx that is bedeviled by multiple risk factors.

emmanuelewumi:
If you are a trader that is looking for a short term return I will advise you to sell.

But if you are an investor who is planning to hold the stock for 5 years and above, you can continue to buy based on your cash flow

Cashflow is tight and money is losing value sitting idle waiting for the market to crash.

If you put money in TB it'll take one whole year, within which opportunities may come and go.

Can anyone guess when this bull run will end?

Right now most stocks looks overpriced and the ones with fair prices have very terrible fundamentals.

Never knew holding assets in USD can be so illiquid when you want to convert to ngn and put it in a good stock.

emmanuelewumi:
FSDH Capital

United Capital

Meristem Securities

Investment One Stockbrokers.


I have accounts with all of them and I have gotten loans from all of them

FSDH Capital and United Capital are the best for me.


But I doubt if you can meet up because the right offer is time sensitive

Please share the trading fees charged by these stockbrokers. God bless you

Since the previous chairman of Aradel Ladi Jadesimi retired, the stock has been almost on full offer above ₦520. In fact, the total offer is above ₦4.5 billion compared to bid around ₦400 million.

Jadi has two daughters. One is the CEO of LADOL, the other is a socialite abroad.

There's been a significant buying of Aradel shares by employees of Aradel or people connected to them in recent times.

What are the chances that Ladi has put all or majority of his shares on offer to the public, with a plan to distribute the proceeds as he likes when he passes on?

If it isn't Ladi, then who is selling such a huge quantity and why? The company has performed well in the past two years from their financial statements, so is there something inherently wrong with the company that people are not yet seeing?


With such a huge offer compared to bid, how long will it take for price to fall another 10-20% so one can buy in for the long term?

emmanuelewumi megawealth01 KarlTom Streetinvestor2 Locotrader

Please you guys should analyse this issue

SonofElElyonRet:
AI Overview



+1
Newly Built Palm Oil Refinery With Jetty – Luxury Villas ...
A palm oil refinery in Calabar, Cross River State, is currently for sale. The refinery is a 400-metric-ton-per-day vegetable oil physical refinery and fractionation plant, situated on a 7.8-hectare waterfront site with a jetty. It has significant storage capacity for crude palm oil and refined products. The property is located in the Odukpani Local Government Area, adjacent to the TINAPA Business Resort.
Here are some key details about the refinery:
Capacity: 400 metric tons per day.
Location: Waterfront site in Calabar, Cross River State, with a dedicated jetty.
Storage: 20,000 tons of crude palm oil, 11,000 tons of refined products, and 1,400 tons of intermediate products.
Land Size: 7.8 hectares.
Title: Certificate of Occupancy (C of O).
Price: $25,000,000 USD.
Status: The refinery is brand new and not encumbered.
Other Features: The property includes a dedicated jetty with customs facilities and is accessible by road.
The refinery is being advertised for sale by various real estate companies and individuals, according to posts on property listing sites and social media platforms.

Ellah has already received shareholders approval to raise ₦250 billion. If they're unable to get the so-called asset, the management may raise the funds and then start spending it recklessly on salaries, interest on loans they gave the company and other frivolous operational expenses. The CEO needs to be more transparent.

Valthegreat:
Please who is interested in CHAMS right issue @ #2?
I have 7.5m units so you can get 3.75m units with that.

I am interested if you can break down how it works and what I stand to gain in layman's terms. Also breakdown how the transaction will be carried out without possibility of fraud.

Hello everyone,
Is there anything wrong with Cardinal Stone? They are very unresponsive to emails and you can't reach them via phone either. I have sent multiple mails but they don't acknowledge or respond.

unite4real:
You are totally wrong about needing N500 Billion to double the market cap of a N500 billion stock.
I hope you understand the rules of the NGX.
100k units move price. So if a N2 stock is doing full bid daily, it will take 8 trading days to double.
With N200k price can jump with a 100k volume. Since there could be other trades apart from this block trade we can as well estimate that total value of trade of N2 million is sufficient for first price movement. By the time the stock is trading up to N4 per share, a total of N100 million can do the magic of moving the price from N2 to N4. Whearas market cap would have doubled from N500 billion to N1 trillion.

You're right to some extent but your claim doesn't invalidate what I have explained.

My explanation is based on an ideal scenario where all a company's stock is actually liquid and traded actively.

But if a large chunk of the stock is illiquid (low volume on stock exchange) then yes you won't need as much money to move price.

But the danger lies in the fact that a 100%, 200%, 300% or other percentage upward surge in price due illiquidity will incentivize those holding the illiquid stock to sell heavily, which will crash the price.

So, to sustain a new market cap at a certain price level, e.g moving from 500 billion to 1 trillion, you need additional 500 billion of funds ready to buy at the new price that keeps the market cap at 1 trillion, and those who bought at a lower price when the market cap was 500 billion must be willing to hold and not sell at the new higher price and higher market cap.

If the proportion of people ready to keep the market cap at the new 1 trillion is 100% of the holders then all will be well. Else, those who bought at a low price will offload their stock to the new buyers at the higher price. What happens if there's not enough buyers at the higher market cap and higher price? Price will fall back down.

If the entire funds was there to buy at the new price then price will remain there and continue to climb higher as new funds join in buying at the higher price.

The key is SUSTAINABILITY.

The fact that price levels is never sustainable for long periods is why you see price moving up and down in the stock market.

Eventually, the forces of demand (buying price), supply (selling price) and volume (outstanding shares) will interact and compete to establish a sustainable market cap, even if for short periods.

emmaodet:
Can you help with how you arrived at this figure? wish to learn more

Market cap = outstanding shares x current price

If

Market cap = 10 billion
Outstanding shares = 2 billion

Then

Current price = ₦(10/2) billion = ₦5

Assume outstanding shares is fixed at 2 billion, how can market cap move from 10 billion to 20 billion?

Price will need to double to ₦10 and there will need to be people who have additional 10 billion and willing to buy at the ₦10 per share.

You can extrapolate for other desired price levels, outstanding shares and market cap.

You either increase outstanding shares and/or increase find new money to buy at a certain price to reach a desired market cap.

If a stock is currently at 500 billion market cap and price is ₦2. If shares is fixed, you will need another 500 billion to get the price to ₦4 and 1 trillion market cap (100% increase).

From 1 trillion, you need another 1 trillion to get the price to ₦8 and 2 trillion market cap (another 100% increase).

Understanding this will help you moderate your expectations and know when to buy into a stock and the returns you expect. It helps you understand price from a relative standpoint. Your 100% returns expectation when you bouth at ₦10 is different from someone else's 100% returns expectation who bought same stock at ₦100.

It's why you see that large cap shares find it difficult to move quickly in bull market while small cap shares move up quicker, and It's why it's always recommended to buy when stock price is low, like when there's been a severe market crash and everything is down 60-80% from their all time highs.

ProphetUtuocha:
So much noise on Oando, but what do we decipher from their recent data?

A fair value analysis based on Oando PLC’s unaudited H1 2025 financial results (for the six months ended 30 June 2025):

0-1Revenue was ₦1.72 trillion (~US $1.12 billion), down ~15% year‑on‑year, mainly due to softer trading volumes and lower realized prices  .

299-0Upstream production surged by ~63% YoY to ~37,012 boepd, supported by integration of NAOC assets, higher uptime, and revamped facilities  .

474-0Gross profit declined 28% to ₦59 billion; operating loss hit ₦158 billion despite net profit of ₦63 billion, boosted by a sizable tax credit and strong finance income (~₦159 billion finance income; ₦209 billion tax credit)  .

735-0Profit‑after‑tax stood at ₦63 billion, essentially flat YoY (~₦62.6 billion in H1 2024)  .

📊 Valuation & Fair Price Estimate

1. Earnings Power

H1 PAT ≈ ₦63 billion → Annualize to ~₦120 billion (assuming H2 performance rebounds).

If the full‑year 2025 profit reaches ₦150 billion (given upstream gains and turnaround from H2), and assuming 2 billion shares outstanding, EPS ≈ ₦75/share.

2. P/E Multiples & Comparables

Nigerian energy peer group typically trades between P/E 8–12×.

Applying P/E of 10→ fair value ≈ ₦750/share; at P/E 8→ ₦600/share; at P/E 12→ ₦900/share.


3. Asset‑Based / DCF Sketch

Upstream reserves ~983 MMboe → long‑term value, especially with expansion into Angola.

Capex guidance of $250–270 million for H2 and drilling; if production rises beyond 40k boepd and oil price stays strong, cash flow improves meaningfully.

Simplified discounted cash flow (very rough): if free cash flow stabilizes at ₦200 billion/year (~US $160 million) with WACC of 12%, a perpetuity value ≈ ₦1.67 trillion → per share fair value ~₦830 (assuming ~2 b shares).

🔍 Summary Fair Value Range

Method Estimated Value (₦/share)

P/E = 8× ~600
P/E = 10× ~750 (central estimate)
P/E = 12× ~900
Simplistic DCF ~830
Implied fair range **₦600–900 per share**

🚩 Key Risks & Considerations

AGGRESSIVE tax credits and finance income distorted H1 earnings; H2 may not repeat that boost.

Volatility in global oil prices, FX rates, and downstream trading margins could swing actual profits.

862-15Balance‑sheet concerns: equity had negative retained earnings at H1 (summed group Equity ≈ ₦−270 billion)  .

Capital restructuring and debt conversion plans are underway—these may dilute existing shareholders or alter capital structure.

✅ Bottom‑Line Estimate

If H2 execution picks up and trading improves, ₦700–800 per share seems a reasonable fair‑value midpoint today. A conservative stance using a modest P/E of 8 yields ₦600, while a more optimistic surprise or smoother H2 execution justifies nearer ₦900.

OandO will need additional or around ₦12 trillion+ inflow of equity from shareholders at its current ₦53 to reach a share price of ₦900. This doesn't look likely in the next 7 years.

Please house.

Recommend a reliable stockbroker with affordable fees and accessible online platform for self trading.

Please state the fees they charge.

Morgan capital and stanbic IBTC are on my list but I don't know their fees.

Also, is there any advantage to opening a particular bank account if one chooses a particular stockbroker, so as to minimise fees.

Please house kindly advise.

Please house, how much in fees and other charges should I expect to pay if I sign up with Stanbic IBTC stockbrokers and buy stocks on ngx through them? I want to know what stanbic and ngx will charge for buying and selling. I want to start with 3m and I'm told I'll first lose like 4% in fees and charges before I see any benefit (dividend and price appreciation), if any. I'm a complete novice on this please just doing my research.

Foodempire:
Will it any way affect treasurybill investors? If my investment get matured and capital returned to my account, the FIRS should see the source of the inflows and shouldn't tax me.

From what I've read it looks like tax will apply on the interest payment.

Small business owners how are you preparing?

Full time employees, how are you preparing?

Full-time employees doing side hustle to complement income, how are you preparing?

Professional beggars (urgent 2k, online beggars), how are you preparing?

Hand to mouth gang relying on generosity of friends, relatives and enemies sending you small thing, how are you preparing?

You all are going to be dragged into the tax net come January. You'll need to pay your tax (subject to exemptions) and explain your income compulsory to the government.

How are you preparing? How are you preparing? How are you preparing??!!!!!

Gotocourt:
On God oOoOO 🙏, we go dey alright las las🤦

Leave God out of the discussion. People need to be pragmatic and prepared before they get caught unawares

How are you all preparing for commencement of new tax law in January 2026?

If you have the skills to do the job above, it's better you look for capital, get a good laptop or desktop and start creating true crime videos then upload in a YouTube channel or Facebook Page you own and control.

Don't waste your life doing this job for ₦200,000. The minimum pay should be ₦500,000.

NairalandAngel:
Let me tell you a story...

I once had a business relationship with a person I thought I could trust sometime in the year 2019.

The agreement was that I would finance a business venture with N2 million then we share profits.

Before then we went to his bank and I was added to his account as a joint signatory so that I would be aware when the client paid for the service the business was providing and also be sure that no money could leave the account without my knowledge.

At the initial stage when I paid in the initial capital of N2 milion in several tranches into his business account I was getting notification from the bank since I was a joint signatory.

My brother by the time the client started making payments to the bank account the guy had gone behind me to remove me as a joint signatory(How he did it I still do not know till today) to the account and I stopped receiving debit alerts until he had cleared all the money.

My advice to you
You only have absolute control over your money so long as it's in a bank account that is opened in your own name and that is under your control.

Do not agree to transfer money to another person's account on the agreement that he will send the money back to you later (Especially your life's savings or an amount of money you cannot afford to loose).

You are not in your friend's heart so you don't know what he has in his mind.

Advise him to approach companies that do POF as their main business.

If you want to help your friend further then offer to pay some or part of the charges of the company that will give him POF.

Don't deceive yourself by taking solace in an agreement prepared by a lawyer even if it was prepared by Femi Falana, Nigerians have zero regard for agreement whether written or verbal!

Thank you for your contribution. Your input is appreciated.

HeatSeeker:
Read to understand and not to reply. It will do you a lot of good.

Okay. Thank you for your suggestions and feedback

joinnow:
AI advice

You're absolutely right to be cautious. Lending someone money—especially a large amount like $11,500 for proof of funds—can be risky, even if it's a trusted friend. Here’s a clear breakdown of safe ways to help, alternatives, and protecting yourself legally and discreetly:





Method B: Statement Sponsorship Letter

Keep the money in your own account.

Provide an official sponsorship letter saying you’re supporting their travel.

Attach your bank statement.


> ✅ No cash leaves your hand.
❌ Some embassies may prefer proof in the applicant’s name, not a sponsor’s.




---

⚠️ Option 2: Transfer the Money, But Protect Yourself

If you decide to actually transfer the money to your friend's account, protect your agreement in writing.

How:

1. Loan Agreement Document
Draft a simple Loan Agreement stating:

The amount ($11,500)

The purpose (travel proof of fund)

The repayment deadline

Penalty for default (optional)

That it’s not a gift.



2. Get a Signature & Witness

Both of you should sign.

If possible, use a neutral witness (even if not a lawyer).

You can also record a video agreement for backup.



3. Add a Post-Dated Cheque or Promissory Note

This shows intent to repay on a certain date.




> ✅ Helps in legal disputes if he refuses to pay. ❌ Still depends on trust.




---

❌ What NOT to Do

Don’t give cash without proof (no receipts or transfer trail).

Don’t rely on word of mouth.

Avoid allowing the money sit in their account for too long without an agreement.



---

💡 Alternative Approach (If You Want 0 Risk)

If you're not sure you want to lend the full amount:

Consider:

Lending only part (e.g. $2,000–$5,000)

Helping them borrow the rest from multiple people

Referring them to a travel finance service (some agents offer proof of funds temporarily for a fee, though some are shady—so be careful)



---

🛡️ Summary of Best Strategy for You

Since you:

Don’t want people knowing you have money

Don’t relate much with bank staff

Want to avoid risk


Your best bet is:

👉 Keep the money in your account, give your friend a sponsorship letter + your statement
OR
👉 Open a joint or custodial account temporarily for control.

If you must transfer:

Use a loan agreement

Get signature, proof, and deadline in writing

Thank you. I'll see how some things here can be factored into other suggestions.

moneymagnetca:
He can open an account with Stanbic-IBTC Asset Management. He should then obtain a lien form and complete it with your details, authorizing them to put a lien on the funds in the account in your favour. Get a lawyer to draft a loan agreement with the funds in the account as security. Then transfer the funds to his Stanbic-IBTC Investment account. The funds should be invested in short term money market instruments (treasury bills) with instruction to rollover on maturity.

Stanbic-IBTC Investment account statement is accepted by embassies.

Thank you for this suggestion. Just a quick follow up, I'll need to follow him to bank to fill the lien form and verify it's my details there right? What if he goes behind my back to cancel the lien order? What if he disappears, becomes unreachable or unavailable when it's time to return the money? How does one mitigate these risks?

HeatSeeker:
Love needs to be Balanced with wisdom!

Does your friend know that you have this amount?

Did you ever promise to help him/her in this endeavour?

If you have no explicit agreement to offer assistance when needed and you never informed him about the exact amount you have, then its better you keep quiet and put your hands in your pocket.

But if the love you have for your friend is strong then only give what you can afford to lose. Wisdom is necessary at this point in your relationship with your friend.

We're not in a relationship and love is not influencing my decision. I just want a way to control the risk. If there's a way then I don't mind helping.

Sp33i:
Proof of funds does not mandate you give your friend the physical cash. Would a statement of account alone not prove adequate ? You can tell your friend it is business funds or life savings and that you can provide statement of account as POF, not necessarily give outrightly.

I can give him my statement of account as POF but the statement will bear my name and details, so it may not be acceptable for the purpose cos according to how he explained it, he needs to show proof that HE has the required amount for a certain period in HIS account. My concern is putting the money in his account is risky if he later refuses to return it. I don't mind helping as long as I have a way to control the amount to ensure he doesn't withdraw it for any purpose.

My friend wants to travel and he's trying to get proof of fund. I have like $11,500 I can give to him but I'm not sure how to go about it without risk of not getting my money again when time comes. You know people can be funny. I don't relate much with bank people and I don't want to involve other people to avoid some thinking I have so much money to give away. I'm still struggling but we thank God for life. Please advise

Thales01:
Pls who sells data or knows someone who sells data at affordable price?
Specifically mtn data.
The default MTN data plans are simply outrageous financial wise and I can't deal with it again.
Pls help.

There's 5 gig for N2,000, 4 weeks duration available.

uwaifou:
Pls does anyone knows the cost implications of stopping treasury bills after ten 10 months?

I invested one million /365 days tenor.

How much will it cost if am stopping it after 10 months?, interest was 24.3% when i bought

You'll lose the interest of the remaining two months and the rest will be credited to you, minus any processing charge.

Bennycollins:
Hi esteemed forumites.
I need help from those that know.
Zenith bank subscribed me for 340+ days Tbills at the rate of about 19+ % . I had chosen 22% rate in the form with instructions that any thing less should not be accepted to me, but the did everything without consulting me.
So I applied that the investment be cancelled.and the have kept back 309k as penalty, according to the Operations Head. Principal amount was 10m and 1703000 had been credited as upfront.
How do I handle this, as 300k is too much for me to lose like that.
Thanks

You're not supposed to lose anything apart from 30% of accrued interest and any transaction fee charged by the bank.

Using 19% and 10,000,000 for 340 days;

U would have been debited around N8,100,000 while + or - N1,900,000 is your upfront interest payment.

around 5588 will accrue daily for 340 days to make around 1,900,000 and at the end of one year, 10,000,000 is supposed to be paid back to you.

Since you cancelled the transaction early (within 24 hours), around 8,090,000 is what should be returned back to you, taking cognizance of whatever transaction or processing fee charged by your bank because no interest has accrued on the investment.

30% of accrued interest is charged if you liquidate your treasury bill before 30 days minimum holding period.

In your 10,000,000 treasury bill amount with 8,100,000 deducted and around 1,900,000 paid as interest for 340 days, the daily interest is around 5588.

If you hold for 5 days and decided to cancel the treasury bill, 27,941 will be the accrued interest... 30% of 27,941 will be deducted as penalty charge... The rest will be added back to your 8,100,000 and credited to you. Bank will remove their processing fee.

I hope this is clear. Don't allow any useless bank steal your money especially when they don't know how to liquidate the treasury bill early but foolishly go sell it off in secondary market at a discounted price.

In any case, go back to your bank and sit down with the operations manager or whoever gave you that cock and bull story and demand for your money or tell them you'll report the matter to CBN, EFCC and DMO and take them to court.