₦airaland Forum

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQiekp5ZDAM

The most wreckless and incompetent president we ever had.

[quote author=jamjo post=43256501][/quote]That's what you deserve.

jamjo:
You are brainless to ask that stupid question, Do you know what that forum was all about? That was when she was tell Nigerian that Nigeria as country can not afford subsidy that it is draining the country . I'm sure you where one of the people who was on street calling her and Goodlock all kinds of name because they wanted to remove the subsidy now her warning is a reality you are calling her useless.

Dunce.

dahmie2013:
War can never be d solution 2 any impending economic crises. Seems u don't know what war means, all cos we want 2 better our economy we'll now be wishing a whole war in anoda country. God 4bid. We're praying 4 peace, cos dats where our prosperity will thrive. Who told u God cannot fa4 us such dat some countries can give us money 2 assist us. A loan dat is interest free. Nigeria will get out of this mess.

You are naive about world affairs. Do you know the number of corporations that benefit from war? Do you know the amount of restructuring that people take advantage off due to war?

Every country looks after its self interest. It may come in the way of war or peace. Do not be naive, the world we live in is highly complex and driven by greed. You only need to look at the mess of a country you live in or have roots in.

Did you tear your old testament or Tanakh or Quran?

besttrader:
I'll love to drop some comments using the Chinese Yuan as an analogy to what's happening right now in Nigeria, maybe we can pick some lessons.

For over a decade China has piled up its foreign reserves from inbound investment and the country’s massive export volumes (Nigeria's export volume is mainly crude, while theirs is very diversified and complex).

In 2015 alone the apex bank in China saw its forex reserves fall by $512.66 billion, only in December 2015 it dropped by $107.9 billion (what did we say is Nigeria's reserve that we're using to hedge the naira at the moment?)

China at the moment is tagged an "Exporter of Capital" meaning capital outflows is just uncontrollable.

Just as we're trying to deal with capital outflows, China is also doing same by tightening capital controls in a bid to slow the departure of funds from its shores, but the market there is constantly finding new ways to aid investors invest offshore.

If I'm not faulting on the figures, the Russians too blew around $90 billion to try and protect the Ruble from falling - some part of this year alone.

The problem here is that:

1. During the decades of surplus, we had some of the worst managers who didn't invest in anything.

2. At the moment, there's just nothing you can lay hands on that has supporting infrastructure, so revamping any sector will entail linking up all the supporting netowrks - you want to revamp agriculture, you need good roads that will connect sellers and buyers, electricity that will aid in the processing of agro-products, etc.

Back to my Chinese analogy, the point I'm trying to draw is that our lean reserve does not stand the chance of supporting the Naira - refer to Russia and China and compare what they have sacrificed to get their currencies at the current levels.

We blew our reserves to run elections, support currupt military juntas, aid corrupt governors, LGAs, etc. Now it's payback time! There's no light at the end of the tunnel - Only God can save us!

NB. CBN Blew $33billion Defending The Naira in 2014. Currently, our foreign reserves is at lows of US$28.7 billion. I really don't know where $28.7billion would take us defending the Naira. We have to decide on defending the Naira until we have no reserves left, or allowing market forces while we sincerely develop our economy.

From what I read, the capital flight in China is related to companies hurrying up to pay liabilities since USA is jacking up interest rates which will make their dollar debts more expensive. So it may not be a bad thing on the long run.

coolscott:
The attached verses of the Bible places the prerogative of replying certain persons in the hands of the individual.
I expect you to recognize the degree to which your advances at me for further engagement on this topic will not be fruitful as I have chosen
the first option of the two options in this referenced passage.

Religious robot. Run along.

1freshdude:
In as much as you are making some sense, I differ with you on the main cause of the problem.
I said the main cause of the problem because we have TOO many problems currently plaguing Nigeria, but if we are to prioritize, the lack of support Infrastructures and very poor education is the root of most of our problems.
How do you restrict imports when you grossly lack the capacity to produce? There are fundamental issues that the government needs to address before restricting importation.
The urgent need to implement and enforce property and intellectual right laws in Nigeria too! In the pursuit of profit, people will go all out to innovate life changing technologies if they are sure that all the benefits from this invention would accrue to them. This will lead to capacity building and argument government investments and making the country better as a whole.

I agree with you to a large extent but I feel we had a base we could have built from in the 60s. If the government had not gotten carried away with cheap crude and subsided production to an extent where it diversified our economy. Then the country would have been able to prevent brain drain and also encourage intellectual capacity that will drive more innovation in the private sector.

We are on the same page, just attacking different symptoms.

musicwriter:
This's what I wrote about 2 years ago providing long term solution.

Bad economy o, currency fluctuations o, poverty o, lack of development o, import based economy o, e.t.c is a symptom of something.

Symptoms of What?. Lack of science know-how.

Until we restructure education in Africa for true education, neither Nigeria nor any other African nation will develop.

Africans please free yourselves from shortsightedness. Always looking for short term solutions!. The current brainwashing model of education we inherited from Britain and France is anti-development. That's the crux of the problem!!.

Africa cannot develop without investment in the right type of education creating mass science education to build our own cars, our own trains, our own ships, our own airplane. Name them!.

Africa cannot develop without investment in grassroots science.

Bad education is a symptom of something else.

Our biggest problem is unfettered free trade. No matter how educated we are, if the cost of imports are cheaper than what we produce locally, then our industries will die out and our educated folks will leave the country. Which is exactly what we are experiencing.

Until we stop being a dumping site if cheap imports, we will never diversify or progress and will always rely on basic commodities.

coolscott:
[size=13pt]I said,
What makes it nonsense because she spoke it in 2014?
If it was nonsense being said in 2014, then the same
thing being said in 2012 was also nonesense

We are in a crises in 2016. Sanusi said what he said in 2012. Okonjo said the same thing in 2014.
I asked how can NOI's statement be nonsense and SLS's statement be bright if they both made the same statements on different dates before this crises we are in.

Now look at what you replied me again. If the people you normally engage with find it profitable further honouring the nonsense you wrote with intellectual input from their part, I'm sorry to inform you that you will not enjoy that dignity from me.
[/size]

Okonjo saying it after the crisis started is like me and you getting in the rain and me telling you we will both get wet. Captain Obvious talk.

Sanusi spoke when the cloud was gathering and we could actually do something about the situation. And I have been corrected he said it late 2011. Oil rose to $140 after Sanusi's speech and Okonjo looked on doing nothing like a world bank programmed robot.

coolscott:
[size=13pt]Sorry. you do not understand. When you put up something like your post below, It will be a very big dishonour to anything of substance to put it side by side with what you have put up here[/size]

You have holes to poke or facts to reinforce?

What are you contributing to the discourse besides...well...bi.tching

735i:
The reduction in interest rates is actually working in their favour because most if not all are yet to review their lending rates downwards. So their margins have increased. Layoffs too have started...albeit a bit subtle to avoid "noise".
But you'll be correct if you say they'll be stressed if oil hovers around at $35...
The big bet then is on the recovery of oil prices.

How do they keep variable rates high when CBN has decreased prime. NAIJA!!! Lolz. No wonder you feel confident about their bottomline. Let's just hope we don't have serious structural debts that will pop and screw up everything. I fear a banking crisis more than the runaway rates in the black market. It's hard to recover when everybank is exposed.

I seriously hope for a rebound to $40-50 a barrel. Just enough to keep us on our toes and also enough to fund a diversified economy. It's our only bet. Anybody that says otherwise is on something cheap. Maybe LSD.

coolscott:
Are you really proud of what you are writing here?

Do you have anything of substance to say?

735i:
A stress test will not be out of place....but what would be your variable? Oil prices? Naturally if the present price sustains till Q3 or Q4, it will be catastrophic. What if prices recover to $40, or $45...
Most O&G loans have been restructured such that once oil prices touch $40, the banks will be sitting quite comfortably.
Don't forget the cbn cut them some slack on charges. I see GTB redeeming its Eurobond at a premium...even as people complain about scarcity of dollars...
See...the banks are smart...they've been burnt before...and I daresay they'll be carefull not to get burnt again...

CBN cut them the slack so they can recover from the reduction in interest rates. I really do hope the banks are as smart as you indicate here. I haven't seen massive layoffs which means they still haven't adjusted to current realities. Not that I am hoping for layoffs. God knows Nigerians have been dealing with major economic stress.

Let's stress test the banks based on current crude prices remaining under $35 a barrel for the better part of the year, 35-40% bad loan ratio and our reserves going down to $15 billion dollars. Those are feasible scenarios.

cekhoe:
so should we start making withdrawals?

No.

Buhari is not devaluing the naira. I'd only get scared when our reserves starts running dangerously low and he is forced to devalue.

735i:
I respect your point of view...but i do not totally agree.
Impairments are rising...True
but the banks are also making a killing from exchange rate differentials...
Q3 results of some Tier 1 banks are not as bad as people make them look.

Look out for FY results of Tier 1 banks... Some of them will shock you positively.
Then i know that some banks have already recorded Y-o-Y growth in revenues for Q1 2016 from activities in Jan and Feb alone....

Mate...theres quite a lot going on that you're not aware of

I'd like to confirm your information with a stress test. Let's really see how fundamentally sound the banks are. I have seen Nigerian banks declare profits to high heavens till they folded up or got bought out. Let's stress test the banks.

asha80:
I am not too worried about buhari..i am more worried about the state governors who cannot think beyond allocation from abuja

The way those state governors are going. Expect defaults on loans asap.

LRNZH:
My brother/sister, even the non-religious appreciate the power of accentuating the positive. There's power in what you project.

Your topic title raises an alarm about a probable banking crisis waiting to happen. Not everyone has the patience, time or intellect to see the point you are making in the actual

As far as Nigeria is concerned today, we are not devaluing the Naira so there is nothing to worry about in the point you raised.

Something impending/looming can still be averted. It just serves to inform about the dangers on devaluation if the kicking and screaming continues to follow that route without major cost benefit analysis.

Our reserves are finite and nothing is coming to replenish lost reserves and for us to develop or support manufacturing, we will keep bleeding foreign exchange. So official devaluation may just be inevitable on the short run. I really hope we find a way out and avert the dangers ahead.

Another thing I'd like to point out are the effects of not devaluing which is arbitrage due to the uneven difference between official and parallel markets. This con is still better to manage than a potential banking crisis.

I wish I could word it positively, but let's face facts and deal with it.

blazer234:
What will revolution achieve? Revolution against what? Against reduced oil price, abi?

Buhahaha. Some people just don't get it.

LRNZH:
OP, your title actually has a negative connotation.

It is what it is though. Would you rather be prepared or jolted beyond belief if it happens.

EastanPower:
Stop speaking negative words, it is well with Nigeria in jesus name!

They are factual words. Not everybody is religious about these things. So keep that in mind.

If prayer could fix the country, all the wishful thinking and vigils could have done something. Well newsflash! It isn't moving a pin.

HiddenShadow:
Oil will never rise
Do you know why.? US shale oil will replace any oil not supplied by OPEC and others.
Now tell your dumb President to restructure Nigeria along True Federalism so that all states will be encouraged to become productive

There are mixed reports on if either OPEC or the shale industry is winning the current war. But I know for a fact. North Dakota and Houston are in pain. A lot of shale drillers are going bankrupt but rather than drilling new holes, they've improved the technology to maximize existing holes. But reports coming out indicates a decline in US oil output, so OPEC may just be winning for the moment.

But like any technology, once it's out there, it will improve. This is why OPEC lost the 80s and 90s oil wars against offshore drilling. Technology is disruptive and shale is here to stay. Opec will win this battle but lose the war.

HiddenShadow:
Oil will never rise
Do you know why.? US shale oil will replace any oil not supplied by OPEC and others.
Now tell your dumb President to restructure Nigeria along True Federalism so that all states will be encouraged to become productive

Now you are talking.

This is the function of the NASS but Buhari can pressure the NASS. But don't delude yourself, it is not a short term fix but a well deserved structural change that will unleash our potentials.

asha80:
to be honest I wish nothing makes oil rebound quickly so that we be 'forced' to change our priorities and attitudes.

We need it to rebound a bit, at least to a point where everything doesn't disintegrate. Buhari has some protectionists policies that may grow our dead nascent industries and the Minister of trade has already negotiated antI dumping and unfair trade with world trade organization . But with no cash, all thosw good intentions to protect us will be a pipe dream.

HiddenShadow:
The way you wished for war in the middle east for oil price to go up
Now get your war tasty pri.... Out of this thread
War monger.


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If you read the news you would know that the world powers are already preparing for the disintegration of Saudi Arabia and the war scenario is not farfetched with ISIS and Syria. If all you know is Igbo vs. Hausa vs. Yoruba diatribe then gtfo.

rolchi:
Forget this video and Nozi Okonjo-Iweala rantings...you don't have a case.

For your info, I won't respond to you again!

You lack substance to respond. Now runalong and go feel good about your clan.

HiddenShadow:
The North and West will prefer to pretend all is well than take to the streets against a government they almost plunged the Nation into a civil war in order to see in power
The disaster will come but rest only on the North and West.

Can you get your ethnic ass out of this thread?

LRNZH:
Exactly what Venezuela did. Floated a dollar denominated bond but watchers think it is too late for Venezuela whose situation is worse than Nigeria's at the moment.

Everyone is waiting for a Venezuela default.

Venezuela will default soon. Their gold denominated reserves which is their lifeline has lost so much value. Chavez, being a pompous ass got them back on gold standard and now cash reserves is almost depleted and they are selling gold at a major loss!

LRNZH:
Before you make US and Nigeria comparisons, go and school yourself on the nature of the two economies.
Get some knowledge brother and don't make this a partisan thread.

But OP, while I agree with you that if the banks are truly owed in USD and a devaluation will worsen the debts, I think a thread like this can lead to panic withdrawals by depositors.

Anyway, Baba has said no devaluation so anybody stockpiling dollars in readiness to make a killing from devaluation is wasting his/he'd time.

Oil price can lead to debt defaults but that is it. Forget about the impact of devaluation. It is not happening.

I don't want to encourage panic withdrawals, just want people to be analytical. There are pros and cons of devaluation. This is a major con for our country at the moment.

Buhari and Emefiele knows this which is why they are sitting tight. If they stress test those banks, the market will panic.

asha80:
hope it is not going to lead to massive sack in the banking sector

It will lead to massive sack. It's just a matter of timing.

cckris:
APC people who talk before thinking.
You people hired Obama's campaign manager, now do in Nigeria what Obama did for America in 2008.

This thread is for people that can think. Not people throwing useless party labels.

solid3:
So, what's the way out?

No easy way out. Let's speak the truth. We effed up majorly, and this is beyond political ideology or ethnic identity.

Short term solution is to sell some of our oil assets to improve our reserves but the value is in the tank right now and which investor will like to deal with the situation in the Niger Delta with armed youths?

Another way for the government is by debt funding. Float a bond and let Nigerians in diaspora invest. How will they convince most people with what we know? I think this is already in motion.

Hand of God solution which we can't control is for war to break out in the middle east and oilgoes back up.

The rest are very long term but we have a crisis to deal with.