₦airaland Forum

raumdeuter:
Mbah was in PDP, he don see say future no dey for PDP as a party for any future ambition. Mbah is not playing Enugu politics. He knows he will win 2nd term easily. The game play for those decampees are for 2031

They believe Tinubu likely wins 2027. And 2031 the presidency goes to the North and VP to the south. All those Southern governors are positioning themselves for VP.

Mbah don realize say SS governors wey don go APC early are favorites for VP but being Ibo they have an argument for being the 3rd largest ethnic group which should be VP but you cant argue for APC VP when you no dey APC. Its the same thing Obi did in 2014 by 2019 he was PDP VP

You might say he has competition but the other options from SE in APC are Umahi and Hope. Mbah will think if he put body well well he can scheme out Umahi Hope and even Nwafiru. Cos Umahi and Nwafiru are from Ebonyi the smallest SE state, then Hope is not as refined as him.

Same reason I expect that When Soludo finish his term he might also decamp to APC like Obi did to be in play for VP in 2031 and future roles

All these scheming and plotting for VP position that could have been gotten on a platter 2 years ago. But someone's ego was too big. Anyway that is past tense now. Tinubu will decide who will be VP in 2031. 2027 is gone.

Op,

What is the name of your final year course advisor, former HOD, and current HOD ? You can provide only their last names.

raumdeuter:
You know the bold was not in the premise of his argument from the beginning na renovation. His initial premise was every asset including building, Basically a Networth of $2m makes you live godmode

$200k will get you a choice property in ANY part of Nigeria.

$200k will get you a choice fleet of cars. That is if you are doing too much else you don't need this much. Most of those SUVs in the fleet of the naija big men are not owned by them. They get them on a need basis (usually for occasions) and you won't believe how cheap it is to get those cars plus mopol assigned to each of them.

This is $400k gone. You have $1.6M left. Let's use the 4% ibime talked about earlier. This is a very conservative number. There are dollar bonds that pay almost twice that in Nigeria. But using 4% that gives you $64k per year in Nigeria. That puts you very well in the upper class in Nigeria. If don't use that 4% and simply put the money in standard chattered bank dollar bonds of 8% per annum. That puts you at $128k a year. So you have $10k per month in Nigeria of disposable cash. That's definitely upper class in Nigeria.

raumdeuter:
upper class is different from upper middle class

What do you think godmode living means in Nigeria

I don't know the meaning of God mode. Anything over $500k puts you in the upper class in Nigeria. $2M liquid (not including value of the house you live in) puts you in the upper class in most places in the world, including most cities in the United States.

raumdeuter:
What you listed above puts you in upper class mode not in god mode that the original poster wrote in his post quoted below. A single G-Wagon or Cybertruck will almost consume the 500m
For example Cubana chief priest bought 1 Range rover for his wife and the cost was about $250K according to Naija blogs. So the cost of delivery to Nigeria you can imagine how that will end up being. Now to live in godmode, you wont have just 1 luxury vehicle, you probably need 2 or 3 of similar cars to be in godmode. Now how much will that be
before we go to the regular Hilux for escort cars

That business class ticket abroad will it be for only him or he wont have a family that are also travelling business class with him plus the hotel and how many times this godmode big boy make such trips in a year. Do you know how much eat at best places when you travel will cost and do you think the expense you described will get you VIP treatment everywhere in Nigeria even before talking of abroad?

Now when you spend that $2m, how much of it will be left

Ok o. $2M usd upper middle class in Nigeria? Ok. I hear you chairman. Salute.

raumdeuter:
Running a clinic with $1m, Hw much do you think will be personnel cost per year. That is before buying supplies. Before you get the contract how much would you have spent on logistics and watering the ground. Bribes alone can take up to 40% of total cost of project

How much they can get from that contract is subjective and since we don't have specifics let's not dig deep into such details. What I'm just trying to show you is that returning abroad to execute such contracts can be totally worth it. The threshold for what will make it worth it for each person is different (and maybe dependent on what you were earning abroad at the time and a realistic projection of your earnings in the near future). I reckon that for the overwhelming majority of Nigerians abroad it is worth it if they can make >$500k post contract execution.

There is no place like home. Most Nigerians who emigrate are economic migrants and many will come back for the right money. If you are not tired of living abroad there are many who and only stay for the money.

raumdeuter:
If you are working on a total budget of $1m after all the expenses how much can you possibly pocket

Let's say you pocket half, $500k. It's still worth it. This is money that'll be untaxed in your home country. You'll need to earn 2x or 3x that in the USA to get an equivalent value. You and I know how hard it is to pocket $500k in cash after taxes in the USA (let's not even talk of broker countries like UK and Canada self). And like I said you'll need 2x or 3x (depending on the city you live) to have the same value in the USA. So how many Nigerians abroad have $1M or $1.5M in cash or liquid assets (not including value of the home they live in)? How many self get $500k in cash?

raumdeuter:
Someone will leave abroad and claim say he don get Aso Rock clinic contract when the entire 1yr budget even if you chop everything, don't settle anyone, don't pay any salary and don't deliver a single needle is less than $1m

Una done come. $1m in abroad is worth $3M in Nigeria.

How many Nigerians abroad have $3m? How many have $1m?

LordAdam16:
Obi mata tire everybody, Chair.

Who you 1 complain give?

Make Tinubu do e 8 years, make another dogoyaro do 8 years.
Obi will hopefully come in and we will see the miracle he'll perform.

Until then, to thy tents O...

-Lord

Come in where? This maths you did is 14 years from today. Obi will be 77 by then. 14 years is a very long time in politics . Even when the pendulum moves back south in 14 years there is no guarantee it'll swing towards him. I never see this kind madness in politics before. VP in 2 years or roll the dice in 14 years and he wants to roll. Absolute madness.

LordAdam16:
I have not.
I am a realist.
Waziri's best chance is to team up with Obi.
AFAIK, he has no viable Plan B.

At the moment, that initiative is inconclusive.
Save a black swan event, if things stay this way and there are few, if any, indications they'll change, then Tinubu will easily coast to victory.
Never say never in politics, but that's the state of things as of today.

Just as importantly, I have made peace with a Tinubu second term.
Buhari did two terms despite my feeble protest.
Heaven will not fall if Tinubu completes 8 years. Or maybe it will, but at that point we'll have bigger problems.
I've said a Serenity prayer and that's that.

-Lord

In general, I agree. The matter tire me. Someone was VP in 2019 (which brought him to limelight) and wanted VP in 2022 but didn't get. Ran on his own and got some traction so somehow now thinks he is too big for VP. He will rather run and lose than be a VP and win. In all my decades of following politics I've not seen this kind of madness before.

LordAdam16:
I thought everyone had tacitly accepted that politically-motivated attacks can be damaging.
That's the entire premise of the "After God, na Government" aphorism, no?

Perhaps the few cats like Atiku who appear to be maneuvering year after year is creating a distorted "if you're big, you're big" impression.
Being on the receiving end is not funny.
After the 2027 election, El Rufai should quietly relocate to Dubai for 4 years.

Unless Tinubu just sees him as an irritant and not a major threat.

-Lord

Nawa o. Have you given up on Waziri already?

raumdeuter:
Monsieurcoder TemporaryHansel LordAdam16

What do you think of this

https://www.nairaland.com/8433903/2027-ill-run-labour-party

LordAdam16 already echoed what would have been my objective response. Personally, I dislike Peter Obi and almost everything he stands for. I can't stand him. Unfortunately, he has become a political necessity for an opposition movement. I can only hope him saying things like this is just him not playing his cards too early like LordAdam16 suggested. I want to believe PO knows what is at stake here. He knows for a fact that he cannot win an incumbent Tinubu. There is no permutation whatsoever where he wins. Even if Atiku should step down and throw his weight behind PO, he cannot win. If he insists on contesting then it is nothing short of political sabotage of eastern Nigeria. Like LordAdam16 said, it is not even Tinubu I am worried about, it is what will come after if Tinubu should win again. There is absolutely no way to stop that disaster from happening after 2027. It is now or never. It is unfortunate that half the youths where I am from have been brainwashed by secessionists while the other half have been brainwashed by PO. It is just really unfortunate. I don explain tire nobody dey hear word.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]Let me use Kwankwaso as an example..

Between Atiku and Tinubu

With Tinubu winning in 2027, Kwankwaso has a chance of contesting for President in 2031

With Atiku winning in 2027, Kwankwaso has a chance of being a President in 2043.

If you were a Northern politician, where will you place your bet?

The Northern politicians know that the best option is to wait out the 4 years of the South. So why stake on Atiku?[/color]

Atiku does not need Kwankwaso. Of course, people like Kwankwaso who hope to be president in 2031 won't back Atiku. Same way no igbo politician in south who hopes to be VP in 2031 will back obi. Do you think every politician in the North backed Buhari? Did every politician in the South West back Tinubu? Kwankwaso did his worst in 2023 we have seen his hand. Kwankwaso is 1% of the north politicians the other 99% know they have no chance of becoming president and Atiku is the fastest way for them to get back power. No emotions in politics. Atiku is the oppositions best hand and you play your best hand always especially when you are opposition.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]When he had Governors and Senators..

Today, not one PDP Governor is identifying with him, but let us believe he will hit 8 million

Playset thou, my Lord? [/color]

Governors and senators in the North will identify with Atiku when the time is right. It is too early to play those cards against an incumbent. Who do you think a Northern politician will prefer to campaign with in the North? Atiku or Tinubu?

raumdeuter:
Its simple electoral maths

If Atiku beats Tinubu in the North, he needs to match Tinubus results in the South. Which politiian stands a better chance of winning, matching or at least getting close to Tinubus results in the south

that is where Obi comes in

It is simple. Goodluck explaining this simple maths to the average obidient.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]I know a coalition is needed. That's the only way.

My point is why you and I agree that Obi would most likely top the entire South, we cannot say the same for Atiku up north.

His supporters should begin to question his political value.

If the coalition happens and loses, it may most likely be because Atiku didn't cement his place up north.[/color]

You are somewhat right. The coalition can fail because Atiku underperforms in the North (declining popularity in the North) or in the South (voter apathy despite Obi). However, North has more votes than the south. In politics you play your best hand, always. It's also easier to convince southerners to vote Atiku than it is to convince the North to vote Obi.

raumdeuter asked you guys a question and no one answered. Which do you think is easier to sell to an average northener in 2027?

Atiku/Obi

Obi/El rufai

Obi/Kwankwanso

Obi/anyone

There in lies your answer.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]Let me show you NW and NE results. Like I said, you guys are really overestimating Atiku in the North. That ship is sailing [/color]





[color=royalblue]So what exactly is this lockdown that Atiku has on the NW and NE?

We never even start, Kaduna, part of Kano and Kebbi don swear oath for Tinubu, and Atiku has the North on lockdown?

Ehn, Nwanne?[/color]

I never used the word lockdown anywhere. I am sure there are naive people who do but Atiku does not have North on lockdown but he will beat Tinubu in the North. Going by what you posted here, despite losing over 300k christian votes to LP, Atiku still won the core north. Will it be a sweeping win? No. That is exactly why I said he needs to win the SS/SE and be at parity with Tinubu in Lagos to win. Buhari had the north on lockdown and could afford to lose SS, SE and still win. Atiku doesn't have that luxury. He needs win the SS and SE and come very close in Lagos to win. If he can't achieve that, he will lose.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]The total number of votes in the North only[/color]



[color=royalblue]If you really think Atiku has any North on lockdown, think again. With Governors and Senators at his disposal, he still didn't win APC, talk more of convincingly [/color]

Yah. I was referring to core/muslim North (NW and NE) in my earlier post, when you factor in the christian North votes (NC and part of NE) which Atiku lost to LP then it is clear what happened here. Obi din't only take alot of "would be" Atikus vote in the south he ate up basically all of the "would be" christian North votes who refused to vote another fulani muslim man or a muslim-muslim ticket.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]My own concern is that the PDP bloc that Atiku is supposed to bring into the coalition, is more scattered than ever

The Southern side is saying a big NO to him. NO in Caps Lock.
[/color]

Atiku does not need the "PDP bloc" to win. Atiku needs to win the North and he definitely has the votes to do that even without PDP. His problem is he does not have the votes in the South to consolidate his win. This is what Tinubu is working very hard to make sure he doesn't get. It's not a coincidence that Tinubus entire strategy has been getting endorsements from Southern politicians and traditional rulers. If Atiku cannot pull heavy votes from SS, SE and Lagos then he wont be president and Tinubu know this. He can't beat Atiku in the north but can make sure he gets little or nothing in the south. Obi refusing to be his VP and running again means Atiku will lose again. Even with Obi as VP it is going to be very tough to sell a Fulani man in the East.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]Why did Atiku drop Obi and pick Okowa?

Why not start from there? Is it not possible he is also working for Tinubu?[/color]

Izzou my brother,

Atiku was told by the PDP after he won the ticket that to get their support he needs to run with a SS governor. They gave him a choice of Wike/Okowa/Udom and he picked Okowa. Hindsight is 20/20. Everyone now thinks he should have insisted on Obi but Obi was not as popular during the PDP primaries as he is today. He gained a lot of popularity after that primary. At the time, it made sense for Atiku to placate the PDP by running with one of the 3 SS governors they asked him to run with. That was the politically sensible things to do. Those 3 governors were sitting governors of oil rich states. You need money to win elections. The dynamics at the time have changed to make Obi a necessity now. Atiku not running with Obi was not personal (and Obi knows this), it was the politically necessary thing to do.

LordAdam16:
I guess I'm jaded because Obidients have a troubling track record.
Obi was to be a protest ticket in 2023; like the Green ticket in the US. If you wanted to win, you had to pick either Tinubu (continuation) or Atiku (take a different path).
But then we had the Obidient groundswell and the rest is history.

So perhaps, they're been coy. That's probable.
But that narrative is fuel for the not insignificant bloc in the Obidient movement who are Obi maximalists.
They WILL sit out an election with Atiku/Obi on the ballot and encourage others to do the same.

Depending on their efficacy, that could become a real issue that'll potentially sink an Atiku-Obi coalition.
It is a given that Tinubu will exploit the rift.
If by late 2026, there are doubts that the coalition can clear the 10m bar, no astute politico will stake their career on the ticket.
We'll know the result weeks before election day.

-Lord

I am a regular viewer of this thread but rarely comment but I feel the need to today just to say you are right and absolutely spot on. I am an igbo man who is a staunch Atiku supporter and everything you said here is true. We igbos are very stubborn and proud and we unfortunately make up the majority of this idiotic obidient movement. A lot of us will absolutely sit the election out in protest. Some will even go out and vote Tinubu in protest--I know how we think. There are ways to fix it though. Waziri needs to understand that Obi alone will not be enough. He needs to engage more igbo politicians at the grassroot level--people like Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe. He has been APGA for years and is there for the taking. He is a thorough bred grassroot politician and loved by many in grassroots across the East. The next thing he needs to do is seek the support of more young igbos who aggressively campaign for him on social media and mainstream media. These do not need to be people who are already seasoned politicians. Infact, the less political pedigree they have, the better. He needs young Igbo technocrats who promote him relentlessly. Like we saw in 2023, social media cannot be taken for granted in Nigerian politics again. Everytime I go on social media, the ONLY (or overwhelming majority of) people promoting Waziri are Hausa and Fulani people. This is not a good thing and big problem especially in a time when the country feels like it's the turn of the south. Waziri comes with a lot of baggage--you don't stay 30 years in politics and not have a lot of baggage. He needs young southerners with pedigree in technocracy to go all out for him and change the way people perceive him similar to what Tinubu and co did for Buhari leading to the 2015 election. The idea he is another fulani agenda that needs Obi and igbo votes for a power grab needs to change. It is doable but it will take work. If he thinks Obi alone will be enough, he will receive a shocker at the polls.

cococandy:
The 1000 genders will still continue to exist.

The only difference is that Trump will make it easier for people to harass and discriminate against them.

And that has nothing to do with the great economic plans Harris had versus trumps 200% tariffs.

Will his planned tariffs affect you positively? Or you’re just happy you got a chance to stick it to gay people?

2 genders (male and female) have voted Trump, tell the other 998 genders to vote Kamala so she can win

raumdeuter:
Time to start crying about racism, sexism, misogyny

AmazonTopaz:
America is doomed

Congratulations to the idiots.

You can pack out

BlueMann:
Lol there weren't 24 players that had a better season than Palmer last season. But we move.

When your national team manager puts you on the bench for an entire major tournament where they get to the final then you should take the back seat. This says nothing about his talents.

I truly hope Rodri wins it. The idea that you can ghost for your national team and still call yourself best player in the world needs to die. I can understand doing that for Messi/CR7 who were heads and tail above the rest but not for Vini. Going forward, you don't show up for your country, you take the back seat. I completely support.

oluayebenz:
Only a fool will keep hoarding fx at this stage

April 2024

oluayebenz:
In-market rate is now #950 / 1usd

Dollar will likely settled at 700 by June

April 2024

oluayebenz:
Truth...

By the time naira finally settled, it will shock everybody.

I'm seeing 400 in the making

April 2024

oluayebenz:
Expect 500/$ by end of May.

And it will be fixed.

Info from CBN insider

April 2024

oluayebenz:
By June.
Rate will be below 1000.

Hoarders hmm 🤔

April 2024

oluayebenz:
Nigerian economy

The more you see, the less you know.

Naira is gaining massively against USD.

Infact naira is still undervalued at 1,000.

By May hmmmm Hoarders go cry bitterly

February 2024

oluayebenz:
The policy is not working and it's getting out of control.

CBN will fix the rate at 1k... anytime soon

Info from insider

November 2023

oluayebenz:
I dont see the dollar going back to 1k naira ever again.

It's currently at 940

November 2023

oluayebenz:
Seriously 😳

You no get mind Sha, pls don't go near FX ever again.

Dollar will still rise a lil bit soon but by mid next year, it will stable at 750 or so.

October 2023

oluayebenz:
No it won't
Effect of the new CBN governor

Dollar will stable at 750 or so

October 2023

oluayebenz:
If you can hold on a bit but I doubt if it will ever reach 1200 again.

You shouldn't have bought dollar at 1170 nah, do you think rate will go up to 2000?

August 2023

oluayebenz:
True value of naira is around 600/USD..... I have said it before...

By middle of Sept, naira will range btw 580 - 600 per USD.

Hoarders should keep hoarding, I've said my own 😅. We move 🚶🚶🚶

July 2023

oluayebenz:
It will definitely nose dive.
FX can't stay high for long.

I'm predicting 600/USD in the coming months

The jokes write themselves

patrickmuf:
I really don't know how some of us see things but for me, I can never dwell on the decisions of people with differing opinions...

People made their choice just as you made yours, quit trying to rub it in...You are not God and can't say for certain how things would've turned should your preferred candidate had won...It may be banter to you but not at this point, I actually feel sorry for people who are struggling...

I hear you but that is not how it works.

I respect who you choose as a wife
I respect the club you choose to support
I respect what you choose to do with your money
I respect your personal choices

When it comes to making a decision that can affect my life negatively, I have to speak up. The choice of a bad leader cannot just kill my source of living but can also cost me my life and the life of those around me who I love. Please leave those who saw a disaster coming and warned about it to complain. Today they are just as impacted (some even more) by the terrible choices people made. People are suffering, let those who want to vent, vent.