₦airaland Forum

yarimo:
firstly no INEC polling unit on social media, secondly crowds those not translate to winning, if it those why didn't he win in 2023 ?

At the same time we can not undermine the power of the social media, example of these was Peter obi win in Nasarawa state . Crowd is a way of winning undecided voters

what we need to know is that any political party that is not considered to be among the favorite to win the 2027 presidential election, that political party would not be making headlines in the news media and the social media for the good and the wrong reasons
in football championship, they're team that will not be easy to play against. NDC is like a football team that will be tough to play against, which is more stronger and formidable than LP of 2023.
The political manager of NDC was able to do 2 big signing in the transfer window, which are the social media champion in the person of Peter obi, and the crowd pulling champion in the person of Kwankwaso. NDC is among the favorite to win the 2027 presidential election

In the game of politics, I see Peter obi and Kwankwaso NDC like the boxing match between Muhammad Ali and George foreman of 1974 in the Democratic republic of Congo

They is no problem with the OK movement, Nigerian just need to be careful in voting GEJ, if GEJ will be there for the spoiler roll, but focus more on NDC

If these is successful, it'll be one of the best news in Nigeria from the best performing governor

I the Peter obi and Kwankwaso combination is the most interesting in the world of politics, I will like the combination to be tested, atiku can test his own popularity in ADC

The BAT APC structure of criminality is limited to 10% in part of Nigeria. These 10% of people are those who will vote base on partizan politics. They don't care if BAT has perform well or not, but will vote for BAT APC just because they are supporters of APC. The 2027 election will not be based on BAT APC structure of criminality, but on how BAT APC has perform in 4 years and how United other political parties are

WhizdomXX:
With 1.something?

Kwankwaso is good to go with Peter obi or GEJ

zoedew:
I think not! Even if all Kwankwaso voters and supporters in Kano are morons (no insult intended) who will vote without asking questions there are still Kano voters who are in some number and will not vote Kwaks! Besides Kwaks has very negligible following outside Kano.

Most of Kwankwaso supporters known as the Kwankwaso Nia movement are in the social media, just like PO. When I say political party, I don't mean any type of political party, I mean the main party that will challenge BAT APC

These fuel subsidy removal is the biggest of scam in Africa. It's the right of citizen of a country to enjoy subsidies from the government

As a political analysis, I think any political party that has Kwankwaso as a VP or as a presidential candidate, it will get the job done

Any political party that has Kwankwaso as a presidential candidate or as a VP, that will be very deadly for BAT APC in Nigeria election history.
For Kwankwaso to be able to attract the like of senator Kabiru Ibrahim Gaya and APC 2023 gubernatorial candidate in Kano, Nasiru Gawuna, it shows that Kwankwaso still has a stronger influence in Kano

history so far show that when ever Atiku lost primary election, the winner of that primary election will eventually emerge as the winner of the presidential election.
Example of these is that of 1993, where Atiku lost the SDP primary election to Moshood Abiola, in the 2011 PDP primary election, Atiku lost the primary election to GEJ, and in the 2015 APC primary election, Atiku lost primary election to Buhari

LottiOk:
I just want to leave this for those who love to decieve themselves that asides death, they'll win PBAT in next year's elections. When the Reality of the results PBAT will win will hit them, many of them will run mad completely, many will harm themselves and many will be admitted for HBP related aliments.

Una think it's by running mouth on social media okwia ⁉️

Oga eme fa voom n'anya (E go clear for una eyes)

The reason why you are saying all these is based on the assumption that BAT has many supporters who will vote massively for him in the day of election.
What I have to say is that if BAT may win the 2027 election it'll not be because he was able to successfully rigged the election to his advantage, but it will be because of those Nigerian who decided to be patient and vote for him in another 4 years

SmartPolician:
Stop comparing elections that take place in saner countries with what happens in Nigeria. In Nigeria, politicians in power devise several evil means to win elections, including rigging, vote-buying, opposition suppression and intimidation. It will be a miracle if Tinubu loses the next election.

You made some point.
You will have a reason to think that BAT APC will win the 2027 presidential election based on the structure of criminality they've in their advantage.
when you look at the 2023 presidential election, upon all the rigging that BAT APC did, why were they not able to get the popular vote?
the popular vote is the sum total vote of: PDP+LP+NNPP
will all APC members be loyal to BAT in 2027, have you taken time to read the prophecy of primate Elijah ayodele?
if BAT APC did not get the popular vote when BAT was not well known to Nigerian, what makes you think that BAT APC will find it easily in rigging the 2027 election when most Nigerian now know the type of person he really is?
the reality of these is that it'll not be possible for BAT APC to successfully rigged the 2027 election without support from Nigerian from part of the country

One thing we need to know is that, they is a difference of being able to rigged an election, and being successful in rigging an election to your own advantage.
The point here is that for a president who have perform very poorly, it'll will be hard for that president to successfully rigged an election, I gave an example of the 2008 election in Zimbabwe.
Nigeria is not a country from another planet, what happened in some country can happen in Nigeria

it's something common for government in power who have a disconnection with the people to consider rigging an election. Election rigging is something that will not be possible for any president who has a performance level that is below 30%. The like of OBJ, GEJ and buhari were able to win their election because they had a performance level that was above 30%, presently BAT has a performance level that is below 10% which is the lowest so far. In country like Cameroon and Uganda, that has conducted controversial election, the president of those two country have been able to hold on to power, because of those who voted for them based on the area that they have done well.
Another example these was in the year 2024 where ruling political parties in power that perform lower than 30% lost election.
2024 was a remarkable year for elections as voters in more than 60 countries went to the polls. It also turned out to be a difficult year for incumbents and traditional political parties. Rattled by rising prices, divided over cultural issues and angry at the political status quo, voters in many countries sent a message of frustration.

one of the year’s highest-profile elections, Democrats in the United States lost the presidency, with Donald Trump, the Republican former president, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris. Republicans also won majorities in both houses of Congress.

It was the third straight U.S. presidential election in which the incumbent party lost. And it was one of many notable losses for incumbents around the world in 2024:

In the United Kingdom – unlike in the U.S. – political power swung to the left. The Labour Party won an overwhelming parliamentary majority, bringing 14 years of Conservative Party rule to an end.

The most dramatic defeat for a longtime incumbent party may have occurred in the southern African nation of Botswana, where the Botswana Democratic Party lost power for the first time in nearly 60 years.

In April, South Korean voters gave the opposition Democratic Party a majority of seats in the National Assembly in what was seen as a check on President Yoon Suk Yeol of the People Power Party. In early December, President Yoon imposed martial lawand accused Democratic Party leaders of “anti-state” activities. The National Assembly quickly reversed Yoon’s decision, voting unanimously to lift martial law.

Opposition parties of various ideological stripes won power in a diverse set of nations, including Ghana, Panama, Portugal and Uruguay.

Elsewhere, incumbent parties held on to power but still suffered significant setbacks:

In South Africa, the African National Congress failed to win a majority of National Assembly seats for the first time since the end of apartheid.

Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party – which has governed the country for most of the post-World War II era – and its coalition partner, Komeito, lost their majority in the parliament.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party won a third consecutive victory but were forced into a coalition government. 

In France, President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to hold snap elections in the summer backfired. Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance lost ground to both the left-wing New Popular Front and the right-wing National Rally.

Election rigging is something that is hard to do successfully when a president performance level is below 30%, an example of these was the 2008 Zimbabwe election

If Peter obi was desperate, he will not have join ADC, but join a party that would give him a free ticket. I don't think they is a clear favorite to win the ADC primary election, both Peter obi and atiku stand a chance of winning. Their supporters has been increasing in the party

The political structure in Kano isn't control by these governor, it is control by kwankwaso. Kwankwaso has what it takes to help nnpp win the governorship election in Kano

Money is a commodity that is used in exchange for goods and services and natural resources. Printing of money can be used for the economy if it will help to increase productivity and jobs. An example of these are subsidy and free credit.
if you have an idea of the principle of printing money, you will not depend much on loan

company, industry and businesses were able to produce enough goods and services to their customers with the help of subsidy. when BAT APC FG remove subsidy, they were not able to produce enough goods and services to their customers, which resulted in high inflation and cause the BAT APC FG to enter into the trap of borrowing money massively to cover the holes created.
They is what I will see as a deadly tax, which are tax that cause problem in the value chains of demand and supply. For example if the 15% tax on the oil importers reduce fuel entering the country, and dangote refinery fail to produce enough fuel for the country, it will cause a big problem in the country

Kwankwaso NNPP can b one of those that can cause surprise in 2027, kwankwaso presently has d highest followership in kano, which is also increasing in the NW, what KWankwaso need is to get a good vp that will attract more votes in d south

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Will vote buying inflence voters in 2026?
d is a limitation when it come to vote buying, d BAT APC will not have all d money to buy nigerian votes in 2026, and also not all nigerian that collect their money will vote for them. State capture or state in control of a political party does not mean that d will win in that state, e.g BAT ACN were not able to win d 2011 presidential election in most of d state that d control and buhari cpc had more vote in some state control by pdp

When it come to oil subsidy it does not mean that it will only b pay to oil importer, payment can also b for local and foreign oil refinenaries, so that the cost of production will b reduce, which will generate more revenue for nigeria.
Also d minister of petroleum should not b the president, but a qualified person elected in a democratic process

budaatum:
They may not give you detail, but I'm very certain there are some people they would have told their detail too. Or do you seriously think Tinubu just said, "I will make sure that d is a limitation in d amount of money every state can borrow", and a whole party with some with brains in their heads just said okay, and then millions of we Nigerians all just voted for him?
See what the competition is offering. Some are pdfs, note!
https://punchng.com/tinubu-presents-80-page-manifesto-prioritises-security-economy/
https://media.premiumtimesng.com/wp-content/files/2023/02/RENEWED-HOPE_compressed.pdf
https://www.inecnigeria.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/APC-Manifesto.pdf
https://mercans.com/resources/statutory-alerts/nigeria-changes-to-personal-income-tax-september-2025/
Which makes me ask. How the promises doing?

Not every politician keep to their words, BAT is an e.g of that

budaatum:
You will "allow every state" but you are "not going to give detail on this thread" ?
Is that because you want to do the maths all by yourself and without our help?
If so, why?

I will make sure that d is a limitation in d amount of money every state can borrow.
u don't give detail on every thing for APC FG to do copy and past, even po did not give detail on consumption to production
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D BAT APC FG Benchmark oil price for the 2024 and 2025 budget was a wishful thinking, that is y both will end in failure

budaatum:
How will you "work on the mathematics that can subsidize oil to be N200", please?

Some of d maths is to allow every state to generate their IGR and a better security system

nairalanda1:
In other words, you are going to massively take more and more loans to fill a deficit related hole of 25 trillion naira.
Good luck.

Part of d problem is d APC FG oil for loan policy, where oil is given as collateral to loan lenders. these should stop for 1 year
nigeria is like a man who inherited massive wealth from his father, but can not get access to that wealth

budaatum:
How will you "work on the mathematics that can subsidize oil to be N200", please?

For d BAT APC economy that is almost dead, it is subsidy on oil that can cause it to come back to life, but i am not going to give detail on these thread

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I will work on the mathematics that can subsidize oil to be N200, appreciate naira to be N600-$1, increasing d GDP and IGR & ending insecurity
i will put an end to the controvertial scam of money to d poorest of d poor nigerian. my replacement for that will b to order d cbn governor to pay all nigerian money in every
public holiday
my presidency will b tax friendly with less borrowing

I do agree with these, MNK is a political prophet. it take courage for a person to leave d uk to come nigeria to fight for justice