₦airaland Forum

megawealth01:
I will start buying Access again from sub 20

I haven't bought any stock for days now. Although I don't think this is bears market anyways. The main bear market won't be funny if it starts

I don't see access going sub 20. Q2 is going to be very interesting

megawealth01:
ARADEL must get below 1k before I can step in depending on NGX ooooo

Access is holding strong but I'm not one to gloat.

Let's see where all the gas and refinery arguments will get

Oasisblue:
So much sell offs on the NGX. Full offers and zero bids for so many previously coveted stocks. Seplat, Aradel, DangCem, Betaglass, Berger, Julius Berger, etc.

Access Bank holding strong but what do we know

Pete002:
Access @23 last last

Oh well..... People no go buy now oh! When it touches N70 they will start setting price target of 40.

crownprince2017:
Do you know the landing cost of cpo to lagos on the average in q2? Compare it with q2 last year you will see why presco and okomu will print a very good q2.

Try to remain expert in what you understand, you see this palm business, we they follow am bumper to bumper.


This not a buy or sell advice oooo.

My view on palm oil companies in Nigeria is not based on the global market but on Nigerian government policy

megawealth01:
I dey wait for many stocks to shed weight 😲

No let world people come beat you oh!

crownprince2017:
If you really want palm oil companies this is the best time to get them cheap, what you consider as peak/boom last year has now turn to normal standards structurally, the mother of all boom in palm is coming within 6 months to 2 years.

Official declaration of elnino is not a joke
Indonesia b50 starting July 1 is also not a joke.

2027 will be very hot for cpo..



We don decide based on supplies and demand in the market but on structural thesis.

I am not really interested in palm oil companies per say. I will buy if the bloodshed becomes ridiculous but with a forward PE of about 13 we are far from that point.

deathwing:
Wait o, you guys are actually serious? Haba!

You really want random people on a faceless forum to consider your feeling when they mention outrageous prices for entry for their own preferred stocks? To what end, so the stock won’t crash or so you won’t have sleepless nights? Crazy.

I see such posts and chuckle because when they sound outrageous, I assume they are joking…and even if they weren’t, how does their chattering affect my portfolio and thesis and personal investment goals? Make Una Dey take am easy o. Honestly thought the first commenter who complained was being Tongue-in-cheek

People are vexing but the vex has not yet turned to panic so we are far from the bottom.

Where are all those "geniuses" that were arguing when I said we were at peak palm oil

mikeapollo:
I understand you now ''reside in the same quarters'' with @Agba and you both are ''flat mates''? Extend my greetings him.
I thought you guys were wishing me well, but now I know better

Very wicked somebodys

Agbalowomeri:
Allow market to go down by 30% to refuel

We might see more than 30% down oh.

I expect Access to hold N20 but some of these stocks need to shed a lot of weight

yinka2011:
i want to know if the easy kobo website shut down? i cant access it

thats a big loss if its gone ...

I spoke to the owner a few weeks ago I believe he is trying to bring it back

Agbalowomeri:
Peterichy is still living in 2014

NGX wey don decouple from oil since how many years ago. Brent nosedived from Over 120 to 60. The same period NGX ran a continuous bull for 3 years.

But were valuations this rich? This market is pricing in future and consistent growth in the real economy; anything that could potentially disrupt that would cause bloodshed.

The country's economic managers need to sit up right now

deathwing:
Any correction in you see in a Gas stock, sell your car and buy it 🤣. The future is super super bright for the naija gas sector. Aradel of 1770 will be ‘Had I Known’ by this time next year. I

Happy to watch you guys make the money

ositadima1:
You think this war is over? There is no agreement yet. Iran has its 14 points, which the United States has not agreed to. On the other hand, Trump keeps announcing a deal, lol.

Then there is Israel, which remains adamant and continues to attack Lebanon, one of Iran's key concerns. In my opinion, buy crude as it falls and be patient, because I believe it will rise again.

This war is not over yet. The U.S. may eventually try to put boots on the ground, which could result in significant casualties. Just listen to what Iran is saying, what the U.S. is saying, and what Israel is doing. That alone is enough to tell you that there is no end in sight.

So you want to argue that they will fight forever?

deathwing:
Nigerian oil companies are also becoming gas giants. Seplats Q1 results were bolstered almost entirely by the gas business since they did not benefit from the oil price windfall.

Aradel is fast scaling its gas business while trying to pump as much oil as possible.

Qatar’s NLNG almost-monopoly (20% of world total) would take years to rebuild and companies like Aradel and Seplat are ready to benefit from the scarcity and hike in international prices. NLNG just completed their train 7 and gave already positioned themselves. Whoever sees Aradel as an ‘oil company’ is not looking at the future of global energy.

This is a bull case and it is very valid.

PETERiCHY:
Go back to my POSTS during the WEEKEND..........

I started LIQUIDATING my position in OANDO last week Thursday IMMEDIATELY I DISCOVERED that OIL PRICES are CRASHING.

And every SMART TRADER knows that OIL PRICES DICTATES NGX MOVEMENT....

Will START REPOSITIONING at circa #45

Meanwhile WALE is not in HASTE to RELEASE OANDO results.

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE

This time may be different. I would have run for USD if not that we have Dangote Refinery, liberalized FX and downstream sector.

deathwing:
Was oil falling before the war? Was gas falling? Where will the winter come from?

You will see it on Bloomberg and CNBC in the next few weeks and months

yMcy56:
I don't see ARADEL's transactions as crashing but as earlier heavy cross deals, at least so far....
The market is still retailers market for now from my observation.....
The release of the results may change the game again.....
Q2 is almost over and they are expected to have made massive gains for Q2..
I may be wrong but results will clear things

I expect the decline in oil price to be steady and long term. And as oil price crashes the result of oil companies will keep getting worse. I am talking months and years not days or weeks. Demand supply dynamics is changing

Mpeace:
Aradel that I will sell it his year at 3k.

Lets be watching na. Oil that is going sub $50

Oasisblue:
Dem don crash Aradel to 1665 o. 4 billion Naira worth sold at 1665.

The journey has just begun

PETERiCHY:
Aradel that is heading to sub #1000.

Meanwhile Market mood right now

The fall of oil that I expected has begun and it is going to be a long cold winter. Iran coming online, Venezuela coming online, Russia downloading. We are here for it

Agbalowomeri:
FCMB is twin to ACCESS

Very similar but Access is slightly less efficient, then again its a bit cheaper from a forward PE stand point

Digitron:
May be I should have ask "Why" and not "how"

My religion forbids me from deliberately losing money

Digitron:
Abeg no vex, how does your religion forbid IPO and PO?

What do you mean how?

How do other religions forbid fornication?

Sunrisepebble:
I wish I could share.
Also important thing to note about Dangote refinery is that it’s in a free trade zone. There is no income tax, the EBITDA margin is pretty much the Net profit margin

So if nobody has numbers how are you guys arguing on valuation:

isaacosas01:
Give me one example. Just 1 example of refineries around the world of this scale with this ridiculous valuation.

Do you have any numbers on the profitability of the refinery?

Agbalowomeri:
So your argument is that the company is not worth $50B conservatively? Even when the production doubles?

Dangote is a highly gentleman
If na me, nothing wey go make me list at less than $100B even with a production capacity of 700,000

As in ehen!! All of them are looking at the cash invested. They are valuing the risk Alhaji took, his time and effort at zero. Wickedness in high places.

I am not buying sha. It is against my religion to buy IPO or PO. Only thing I can consider is rights issue

Agbalowomeri:
You dey post

You dey comment

And still dey respond to yourself

Another witchcraft moment

megawealth01:
I don't gamble as habit sha

It's just fun for me

The only gambling I do is to bet against Super Eagles when they are playing a high stakes match. If they win I am happy my team won and I don't mind losing the money. If they lose I am sad but I get small consolation from the money I won.

So far I am up in my gambling career

deathwing:
For me, if you bought stock before Tinubu, when dollar was N600, fuel was N200 or so and inflation was above 22%...you need to have made like 10x between 2023 till now to just to break even. That's why I never bothered. I think 2024-2025 was a good time to come in because of fx stability.. Anything earlier and it's still just poverty olympics you are playing because the SP500 would have been a much better choice.

Just like I did

ositadima1:
Let's say I bought Dangote Cement at ₦300 when fuel was also ₦300 per litre, before the Tinubu administration. Now, my investment has grown by about 3.7 times, almost 4 times my original capital. I decide to take profit, but the problem is that the ₦1,100 I can now sell the stock for cannot buy the same amount of fuel the ₦300 could back then.

My question is: did I really make a gain?

Another question: should I be worried that bears are coming to push these stocks down?

When I left the NGX in about 2013 the ASI was like 29,000 and Dollar was like N170. I believe with the index at like 240,000 it has just about caught up with where it was back then in dollar terms.