Nairaland mods should not be partisan.
This should make front page

Seun mynd44

garfield1:


Yes if he mobilizes more and weakens apc

What do you mean by mobilization?

garfield1:


You lie sir.I told you bvas is an upgrade on card reader.if it doesnt read your fingerprint,then it can scan your face.it is bimodal hence the B.it does not vote,it only accredits voters.it can be hacked.you yourself said it minimizes rigging,it doesnt stop it.before results are transmitted live,people can manipulate it

BVAS is not just a card reader, it does a long way to make sure that the card read tallies with the genetic make up of the holder. It's an upgrade of card reading.

This makes sure that you cannot overfingerprint with anothet persons cards. Only those capture and identied by BVAS will vote, over voting won't work

garfield1:


Obi is only strong in urban areas like calabar,ugep,ikom,ogoja but inside villages like aningeje,owakande,adim, who knows him?

lol, you don't know anything.

You think this is 2019 and 2015, you are living in the past.

garfield1:



Bvas is not very different from card reader.it is a machine and can be manipulated.dont forget human beings input those datas into the bvas.
Wamakko is stronger than tambuwal in sokoto. He is mobilizing more for tinubu

Nope, BVAS is different from card reader in the sense that it first reads your card then scans your finger print. If your finger print doesn't tally, you are out even if your card is read.

Hope you get it?
And results will be readmitted live from polling Units and not after collation. Stop rigging has been minimized

So give us an analysis from non-rigging perspective

garfield1:


People have started seeing beyond that tribal sentiments.it is about issues.atiku will win sokoto but narrowly and sokoto is dominated by hausas not fulanis

Lol, Does that mean that Peter Obi can win southwest?

If people are not seeing tribalism?

On what basis would Tinubu win over Peter Obi and Atiku in Edo and Rivers state?

garfield1:


The way you reason is funny.who told you states will vote along party lines? If Edo and rivers are pdp,it means atiku will win na

If states don't vote along party lines then does mean that Labour party can win Lagos?

garfield1:


Your not getting it.it is very difficult to win elections where your party is non existent

Yes, when rigging and over-voring where still very easier, not with BVAS and live result on INEC portals, it's harder

even if he is fulani,atiku needs the party to mobilize and preach his gospel.he needs popular or strongmen to defend his votes and mobilize people.abiola defeated tofa a fulani in kano.there are no fulanis in borno and yobe.it is kanuris and shettima is kanuris.they dont mingle with fulanis.
Northwest only vote for core fulanis from northwest not outsiders

You think Tinubu is mobilizing more than Atiku in a sokoto that is already PDP?

garfield1:


Sokoto is a 50 50 state.wamakko is the most popular in sokoto.yaradua beat buhari in sokoto,why can't atiku do same? Sokoto will be divided.kwankwaso is also involved

Ok, So APC will win A Funlani man in a Fulani state of PDP?

Lol

Where are you guys getting this hope?

limeta:




On the street they tell you what is expected of them but their hearts says different

lol ok

garfield1:


Obi will win those two states with apc coming 2nd with 25%

how will APC come second in Rivers State that is a staunch PDP structure?
Edo is also a PDP state for God sake. Who will vote for APC? Especially one with muslim-muslim ticket and a purported drug dealer.

In Rivers, APC may not get 10%

garfield1:


Atiku can only win narrowly.votes will be divided.that said,pdp is nonexistent in borno and yobe.atiku won't see 25% here.apc is very strong in taraba and Adamawa and will get more than 25% there...tinubu will edge him out in gombe while atiku takes bauchi narrowly
In nw,atiku is not popular.even buhari didnt get 70% in sokoto,how will atiku get that? Atiku will win sokoto narrowly,lose massive in zamfara.
I am ok with se.ss is faulty.obi is nonexistent in bayelsa,its bw apc and pdp.apc will beat pdp in edo and rivers.obi can't win akwa ibom.if he wins cross river,it will be narrow with apc behind.apc will beat pdp in benue

wait, did you just sat APC will win Edo and Rivers?

garfield1:


Atiku can only win narrowly.votes will be divided.that said,pdp is nonexistent in borno and yobe.atiku won't see 25% here.apc is very strong in taraba and Adamawa and will get more than 25% there...tinubu will edge him out in gombe while atiku takes bauchi narrowly
In nw,atiku is not popular.even buhari didnt get 70% in sokoto,how will atiku get that? Atiku will win sokoto narrowly,lose massive in zamfara.
I am ok with se.ss is faulty.obi is nonexistent in bayelsa,its bw apc and pdp.apc will beat pdp in edo and rivers.obi can't win akwa ibom.if he wins cross river,it will be narrow with apc behind.apc will beat pdp in benue

sokoto is a PDP state, and Buhari contested against a northerner. This time, A PDP state with Fulani man is contesting against Igbo and Yoruba. Who do you think they will vote? Think

if APC don't win in northeast and Northwest, Tinubu ti lule. Atiku na hard nut to crack up north

garfield1:


Atiku can only win narrowly.votes will be divided.that said,pdp is nonexistent in borno and yobe.atiku won't see 25% here.apc is very strong in taraba and Adamawa and will get more than 25% there...tinubu will edge him out in gombe while atiku takes bauchi narrowly
In nw,atiku is not popular.even buhari didnt get 70% in sokoto,how will atiku get that? Atiku will win sokoto narrowly,lose massive in zamfara.
I am ok with se.ss is faulty.obi is nonexistent in bayelsa,its bw apc and pdp.apc will beat pdp in edo and rivers.obi can't win akwa ibom.if he wins cross river,it will be narrow with apc behind.apc will beat pdp in benue

It's not about PDP being dead in borno or Yobe, it's about a Fulani man contesting against a Yoruba man to them. That only will sell Atiku straight.
In Northwest, Atiku will get votes as a Fulani man, it will be hard for a Yoruba man to outrightly beat a formidable Fulani man in Fulani/hausaland. Northerners are very very ethnocentric. Kwankwaso might even become second in Northwest if he plays his cards well.
It's not a matter of party now, it's a matter of our person. The same thing we Yoruba are doing with Tinubu, but unfortunately, yorubas are not as ethnocentric as Fulanis, this is why someone like me and many others will vote for Peter Obi.

Lawalatm:
Y64r analysis is what's giving hope to BAT and Atikulate that they stand a chance.......

Endsars national protest was child's play compared to the tsunami of voters for OBIDATTI in the up coming election. Remember that these same duo have beaten all assumptions e.g online presence only, no physical presence in rallies, no money to finance campaigns, no reasonable running mate after Kwankwazo, etc.....they dwarfed all these early assumptions and more

online polls are good, but we cannot overrule the Nigeria effect and rigging as well.

This election is between PDP and LP to win. Had Atiku not emerged, Tinubu would have cleared Northwest and Northeast because those guys are not sensible voters by average. Now they have to chose their person against APC structure, this is when Tinubu started losing the election. APC go try, but their bad performance and Tinubu's image will be used against them a lot, even in the north.

Had Obi not emerged from Labour Party, The election would have been over before it started because it automatically means that southeast and southsouth will vote for Atiku. He will beat Tinubu to stupor.

The emergency of Obi favours Tinubu, in many ways. He wouldn't have had any chance at all

limeta:





Op when was the last time you were in the North
Something have changed with the people of the north
With the north you still in 2015

I Run a TV that has been doing polls in the north and it seem to me that they still vote hugely along tribal lines. Atiku will win there

1. Southeast
Abia: LP 75:,
PDP: 15%,
others: 10%

Anambra:
LP: 80%,
others 20%

Imo:
LP: 70%
APC: 20%,
others: 10%

Ebonyi:
LP: 70%
APC: 20%
Others:10%

Enugu:
LP: 75%
PDP: 15%
Others: 10%
Reasons: Because Peter Obi is very popular here and people won't vote for a muslim-muslim ticket. PDP still has some voters here hence I'll be distant second. Tinubu is not popular in this region at all but some APC states like Imo and Ebonyi will give him little votes because of APC structure.

2. Southwest

Lagos:
APC: 60%
LP: 35%
Others: 15%

Ogun:
APC: 65%
LP:25%
Others: 10%

Osun
APC: 65%
PDP:15%
LP: 15%
Others: 5%

Ondo
APC: 60%
LP: 25%
Others: 15%

Oyo
APC: 50%
PDP: 20%
LP: 25%
Others: 10%

Ekiti
APC: 70%
LP: 20%
PDP: 10%

Reasons: while this is Tinubu' region, many people won't vote him because of his antecedents, Muslim-muslim ticket and again. LP will be second here because of these.
APC will win for tribalistic reason anyways.

3. North Central

Kwara
APC: 65%
PDP: 20%
Others: 15%

Kogi
APC: 35%
PDP: 30%
LP: 25%
Others: 10%

Nasarawa
PDP: 30%
APC: 30%
LP: 30%
NNPP: 10%

Abuja:
LP: 40%
PDP: 30%
APC: 20%
NNPP: 10%

Niger
APC: 35%
PDP: 35%
LP: 15%
NNPP: 15%

Benue
LP: 55%
PDP: 25%
Others: 20%

Plateau
LP: 35%
APC: 30%
PDP: 20%
Others: 15%

This will be the toughest region to call, LP will get votes in Christian dominated part of North Central, APC will get votes from APC states, PDP will also get votes because of some northern influence. There will be no clear winner here.

Northeast

Borno
APC: 50%
PDP: 30%
NNPP: 10%

Adamawa:
PDP: 70%
APC: 10%
NNPP: 10%
LP: 10%

Yobe
PDP: 50%
APC: 30%
NNPP: 15%
LP: 5%

Gombe
PDP: 50%
APC: 30%
NNPP: 15%
LP: 5%

Taraba
PDP: 50%
LP: 30%
APC: 10%
NNPP: 10%
Others: 5%

Bauchi
PDP: 60%
APC: 15%
NNPP: 15%
Others: 10%

Reason: this region is Atikus region, he will get votes based on tribalism, however APC will become second because of existing structure there. Kwankwaso is all a little bit popular here while LP won't get much from this region.

Southsouth

Rivers
LP: 60%
PDP: 25%
Others: 15%

Akwa ibom
LP: 50%
PDP: 40%
Others 10%

Edo
LP: 45%
PDP: 35%
APC: 15%
Others: 5%

Bayelsa
LP: 50%
PDP: 40%
Others: 10%

Delta
LP: 50%
PDP: 40%
Others: 10%

Crossriver
LP: 55%
PDP: 25%
APC: 10%
Others: 10%
Reasons: There's a big PDP structure here, however the people love Peter Obi hence he will get most votes. APC won't do well here at all.


Northwest

Kano
NNPP: 45%
APC: 30%
PDP: 20%
Others: 5%

Kaduna
APC: 30%
NNPP: 25%
PDP: 20%
LP: 15%

Jigawa
NNPP: 30%
APC: 30%
PDP: 30%
Others: 10%

Kebbi:
APC: 35%
PDP: 35%
NNPP: 20%
Others: 10%

Katsina:
APC: 40%
PDP: 35%
NNPP: 15%
Others: 10%

Sokoto
PDP: 70%
NNPP: 15%
Others: 15%

Zamfara

PDP: 40%
APC: 30%
NNPP: 15%
Others: 10%

Reason: Atiku will get a lot of votes here because of his popularity and Fulani heritage. Kwankwaso will also get votes as he's very popular here but still lacks structure. APC will get votes for Tinubu, however Atiku will most likely win this region.
Obi won't do well here.


Verdict: While I want Peter Obi to win this election and I think he's the best candidate, but Atiku seem to have the best chance because most of our voters especially in the north are not well informed, they don't know what they want hence they will vote along tribal lines.
I see Atiku winning because only PDP has the ability to secure 25% votes in 24% states and still have most numbers. If this doesn't happen, I see a rerun between PDP and LP.
Tinubu will be 3rd because Kwankwaso is going to be a spoiler for him in Northwest and Northeast, Tinubu is depending very much on this two regions to win, Atiku and kwankwaso will give him a tough fight.

We will give him a Yoruba name when he gets to Lagos.

Omoluabi
Or oluwashinafunmi.

Obi lo ma Shina fun gbogbo wa

Tinubuadvocate:
Who is drug dealer.

Tinubu

Tinubuadvocate:
There is no tribalism there but saying the facts.

Ok, but they have a right to reject a drug dealer.

They can't support their corrupt brothers naw. Abi, how you see am?

BATified2023:
igbos n their pettiness

Observe that d font used in writing tinubu was different from other letters

Igbos n their useless propaganda

werey, shey ibo ni dino ni?

Eran oko nie, drug dealer lo fe dibo fun

Tinubuadvocate:
From day one Edo and Yoruba are Always on the same page even before amalgamation of Nigeria edo and Yoruba are together .The political figures in Edo state such as Anthony Ehnaro ,Tony Anini ,john oyegun,cheif Gabriel Igbinedion and others are the good example.

If edo is now decide to chose peter obi the stranger over their brother Tinubu then we will know the next action.

can Tinubu people stop tribal politics?
It's becoming annoying and disgusting.

Edo no be Lagos

RockHard:
Op, I go personally buy your flight ticket to Ghana so you can relocate there after Tinubu is sworn in next year. That's your only hope for the future at this rate. Lol.

Either that or just jejely come to terms with the inevitable fact that Tinubu will be your next president after Buhari.

Tinubu will be president of Chicago, not Nigeria

lhordspy:


I do respect your opinion. But it seems far from reality.

Yours is farther because you think APC will get 89% of votes in Kogi when they couldn't get 55% in 2019.

How did you conjure the figures?

lhordspy:


Elucidate your accussations.

You are assuming that because these states have APC influence at the elite level, it means that they will rig for their party.

Votes will count more than ever in this election, thanks to BVAS. While we cannot totally overrule malpractices, but BVAS will minimize it.

On that basis, Tinubu is not loved in Plateau state because of muslim-muslim ticket.

Majorty of the Fulani votes you think Tinubu will get in Niger and Nasarawa will go to Atiku and Kwankwaso.

Tinubu will only get votes in Kwara and Kogi, then little in Niger. Forget Plateau which is a northern Christian enclave that has been marginalized. Peter Obi will win Plateau

lhordspy:


Read the analysis well. The yahya bello influence has grown over the past years. He has successful built himself a vast, strong political structure. I refer to him as the wike of Kogi state.

if you ask me, the only states APC can win comfortably in North Central is Kwara. Tinubu is not buhari and there is BVAS now.

APC will get votes in Niger, Nasarawa but they won't win. Tinubu is not Buhari, wake up.
Niger is a deal for Atiku and kwankwaso.

lhordspy:


Reason i gave him the 10% . right now Akwanga and Karu are the only places he can savage something from.

LP will get more than 10% in Nasarawa state. Although I don't think they will win.

Something is wrong with your analysis in Nasarawa, Kogi and Plateau. You are seeing it from the lens of rigging and ability of elites to manipulate the election

lhordspy:


Emergence of LP in kogi? ... You are joking right? Where is LP getting votes from in kogi?

your kogi analysis no follow abeg, how can APC get 89%?
Haha reason. In the last election, both PDP ad APC scored 200k votes each, what changed to warrant a shift to APC to 89%? Not making sense at all.

And Plateau, I do not see APC winning there if BVAs would work. Also nasarawa