₦airaland Forum

PETERiCHY:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sell-in-may-and-go-away.asp


DEFINITION OF 'SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY'

A well-known trading adage that warns investors to sell their stock holdings in May to avoid a seasonal decline in equity markets. The "sell in May and go away" strategy is that an investor who sells his or her stock holdings in May and gets back into the equity market in November - thereby avoiding the typically volatile May-October period - would be much better off than an investor who stays in equities throughout the year.

INVESTOPEDIA EXPLAINS 'SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY'

This strategy is based on the historical underperformance of stocks in the six-month period commencing in May and ending in October, compared to the six-month period from November to April. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, since 1950, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had an average return of only 0.3% during the May-October period, compared with an average gain of 7.5% during the November-April period.

There are limitations to implementing this strategy in practice, such as the added transaction costs and tax implications of the rotation in and out of equities. Another drawback is that market timing and seasonality strategies do not always work out, and the actual results may be very different from the theoretical ones.

While the exact reasons for this seasonal trading pattern are not known, lower trading volumes due to the summer vacation months and increased investment flows during the winter months are cited as contributory reasons for the discrepancy in performance during the May-October and November-April periods, respectively.

I raised the above RED FLAP on 1st of MAY this year.

But some group of people under of the aegis of "WE ARE MAKING MONEY THIS YEAR" antagonized.

Well I hope they are still making the MONEY

David McIlroy, chief investment officer at Alquity Investment Management Ltd., which oversees $100 million of frontier market stocks and is put off buying more Nigerian shares until the currency weakens, he said.

http://bloom.bg/1GA8uXp[/quote]Like i said some moons back it's only NAIRA DEVALUATION that can set the market back on track.

Till then the local investors will keep bearing the BRUNT.

OANDO now on full offer @ N6

President Muhammadu Buhari yesterday appealed to world and African leaders to unite to address stock market crash, political conflicts and terrorism.

He cautioned developed nations against adopting double standards in their approach to globalisation.

Buhari said there should be free movement of goods, services without any hindrance.

He demanded reforms in global institutions because they were outdated and asked African leaders to develop a sense of urgency to tackle the continent’s challenges.

http://thenationonlineng.net/stock-market-crash-political-conflicts-portend-danger-says-buhari/

Oil prices declined in Asia Friday as a midweek rally dissipated with no relief in sight to a global crude oversupply, analysts said.

Prices surged on Wednesday driven by bargain-hunting and a below-forecast rise in US commercial crude inventories, but concerns over the supply glut soon resurfaced.

At around 0700 GMT, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was down 30 cents at $45.76 and Brent crude was trading 24 cents lower at $48.56 a barrel.

“Crude oil (is) set to end October in the red, which will make it seven out of 10 months this year, as the global supply glut is showing no sign of abating,” Bernard Aw, market strategist at IG Markets Singapore, told AFP.

http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/2015/10/oil-prices-retreat-in-asia-as-rally-fizzles/

Nigeria’s economy is growing at the slowest pace this decade as oil prices drop.

Companies are complaining they can’t get the dollars they need to do business. And trading in the naira has long since dried up.

There are many good reasons why Godwin Emefiele, who runs the central bank of Africa’s biggest economy, should lift currency controls and let the naira depreciate. One of the things holding him back is politics.

Devaluing the naira may give opposition parties the opportunity to claim that Emefiele’s main supporter, President Muhammadu Buhari, has lost control of the economy.

The International Monetary Fund says the currency measures are detrimental to Nigeria, where growth slowed to 2.35 percent on an annualized basis in the second quarter. Former central bank Governor Muhammadu Sanusi II said last week his successor was “in denial” if he thought he could continue propping up the naira.

David McIlroy, chief investment officer at Alquity Investment Management Ltd., which oversees $100 million of frontier market stocks and is put off buying more Nigerian shares until the currency weakens, he said.

While companies including Dangote Cement Plc, the country’s largest publicly traded stock, and Sahara Group, a power plant operator, have complained that they are struggling to pay for imports, Buhari insists the central bank is provides “legitimate businesses” all the dollars they need.

“There’s enough room to maintain the current regime for now,” said Samir Gadio, head of African strategy at Standard Chartered in London, which in September changed its end-of-year forecast for the naira to 200 from 222. He now predicts a devaluation by the end of March.

“Eventually an adjustment will take place if oil prices remain at these levels. It’s unlikely to be imminent.”

http://bloom.bg/1GA8uXp

First and foremost my heart goes out those grieving over their recent losses.

Then to start with I never ever advice anybody to buy OANDO rather from Onset i said "ITS STRICTLY MEANT FOR LONG TERM IDLE FUND"

As well sometime ago i said from my calculations we should be expecting their 2014 FY in Aug since July 31st 2014 was that's exactly one year after the COP/DEAL was done.

So when August was over I had to dispose on first week of Sept knowing fully well WALE and his GANGS has an ulterior movies.

From the benefit of doubts ever since the beginning of Sept I ve been seriously cautioning investors about OANDO to the extent i went as far as uploading a video called WOLFS of the WALLSTREET on this FORUM and said people should watch the movie that this exactly the picture of what is happening in OANDO.

My previous posts are there as witness.

And now from the look of things they will rescontruct their shares like 15 for 1 or thereabout b4 their real success story will start.

On a last note i believe this an intelligent forum where people are meant to crack their brain in order to make money.

Then for some morons that will wait for others to spoon-feed them with success tip they will always be disappointed.

Thank you.

*ThE OcToPuS*

passwelle:

Yes naa when I discovered there was no hope of getting dividend in the next 3yrs make I come die put

PETERiCHY:
I said this sometime ago I foresee the ELEPHANT drinking the same bitter water UBN drank in 2009.

Above all STOCK MARKET of the 1990 analog era is far different from this current digital mago-mago era in other words thinking of selling your property to invest in stock without a first hand insider information is a GROSS idea.

*ThE OcToPuS*

First Bank of Nigeria Ltd., the country’s biggest lender by assets, paid a fine of 1.88 billion naira ($9.4 million) relating to a directive for banks to transfer deposits of state companies and entities to the central bank, the third major company to run foul of Nigerian regulators this week.

[http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-29/nigeria-s-biggest-bank-fined-1-9-billion-naira-by-central-bank]

A coalition of over 60 Civil Society Organisations, CSOs, in Nigeria, yesterday, decried what they termed “steady and continuous decline of the Nigerian economy” under the watch of President Muhammadu Buhari.

The groups, at a strategy meeting they held in Abuja yesterday under the aegis of ‎Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room, said there was urgent need for President Buhari to evolve a sustainable economic plan that will attract foreign investors into ‎the country.


He said: “The major challenge we are currently facing is that we cannot see the urgency of ‎this administration to improve the situation.

It was unfortunate that after the six months that it took to come up with list of proposed Ministers, those we saw are those that have always been around the hood.

“Why it took so long to forward their names to the National Assembly is quite a puzzle to us.
“Why Ministers who have been cleared have not been sworn in is also a puzzle to us. We are almost in the first week of November.

The laws are clear that government should have submitted its budget projections for 2016 by now.

He said: “Using six months just to share portfolios is not how to go about it. ‎Currently, there is fiscal disconnect. The revenue of the government has declined, relative to the Gross Domestic Product.

“Currently Nigeria has not been attracting foreign investment, we urge this administration to make the economy more attractive. Steady currency regime is required to spur growth”, he added.

[http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/10/nigeria-economy-collapsing-gradually-csos-tell-buhari/]

Aks:
@angelo82 - Take it easy, this is an unusual time where global recession is hitting ALL especially with the continuous dwindling price of Oil, Commodities and economic downturn of China (Ripple effect across all nations). In our case, the wrongs of the past are being corrected at the moment and we have to endure b4 things take shape.

Smart Investors will still make money in this yuletide season as stocks are now recording RECORD LOW prices in 52 weeks : FBNH - N4.96, DIAMOND -N2.60, OANDO - N6.65, TRANSCORP -N1.85 etal

For now forget everything about oil related stocks because their near-future is very very bleak.

Lamps08:
Oga emma, anybody don buy the car and plot of land. I am interested.

Badt man

FBN Holdings has acknowledged the fine of N1.877 billion that was levied on it by the bank regulator, CBN, for withholding the funds of the National oil company NNPC, due to be remitted to the Treasury Single Account (TSA).

It also confirmed that the fine has since been paid.
FBN Holdings company secretary Tijjani Borodo, in a letter to the Nigeria Stock Exchange said:

“In response to the widespread media reports, we wish to confirm and acknowledge the imposition of the sum of N1.877 billion by the CBN on our subsidiary First Bank of Nigeria, and declare that the fine has since been paid.

“However, the Management of First Bank is still engaging in conversation with the CBN on the regulatory decision.

“Kindly be assured that the bank and the entire FBN Group as responsible corporate citizens remain committed to values epitomized by strict compliance to the highest standards of ethics and corporate governance”.

First Bank’s N1.877 billion fine is estimated to be 5% of the N37.5 billion witheld sum.

The bank is one out of four companies in the past few days which have been in the spotlight for irking regulators.


[http://nairametrics.com/fbn-holdings-confirm-payment-of-n1-87-billion-tsa-fine/]

PETERiCHY:
Oga Myjoy. I bet you can't be more optimistic than me but atimes when have to read between the lines and separate realities from dreams.

Presently there is nothing good about the Nigeria economy, everything is simply being stage managed.

I live & work in Dubai and from the look of things i smell another Naira devaluation.

God's bears me witness that the money I remitted back home last Sunday was at the rate of #61naira per 1diahram while before the 1st Naira devaluation last year Nov. The exchange rate used to be #43naira per diahram.

In other words I see AGRICULTURE as the way forward for Nigerians. As per NSE you are on your own for now.

[http://dailytrust.com.ng/news/business/19m-barrels-nigerian-crude-struggling-to-find-buyers/116881.html]

[http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/10/fg-downgrades-economic-growth-projections-to-2-6/]

[http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/fg-states-lgs-share-n390bn-as-revenue-drops-further/224068/]

I made the above comment on 12th MAY of this year while the problem with most people on forum is that they careless about RED FLAPS @ the end of the day they start looking for who to blame. (MAD)

Royal Dutch Shell Plc reported its biggest net loss in more than a decade after halting some operations and lowering its oil-price expectations, resulting in a $7.89 billion charge.

The company, which is buying BG Group Plc in the industry’s largest deal this year, reported a third-quarter net loss of $7.42 billion, compared with a profit of $4.46 billion a year earlier.

The charges include $4.61 billion resulting from the withdrawal from drilling in Alaska and an oil-sands project in Canada, and $3.69 billion triggered by cuts to its outlook for oil and natural gas prices.

Shares of the company fell as much as 1.8 percent.

http://bloom.bg/1Wk17Vy

FBNH tops the list with about N46.6 billion representing a 249% rise in impairment charge year on year.

In fact, their impairment charge alone accounts for about half of what the Tier 1 banks incurred combined.

UBA and Zenith also saw impairments rise 103% and 99% respectively. Apart from Tier 1 banks we also observed that some Tier 2 banks equally recorded significant growth in impairment charges.

Ecobank for example took a charge of N34.6 billion (2014: N23.4b) whilst Diamond Bank took a charge of N19.4 billion (2014: N14.6billion and Skye Bank N6.4 billion (2014: N7.5billion).

Bad bad loans
Industry sources inform Nairametrics that the loans could actually be higher than currently stated as most banks are yet to understand the full recoverable value of their loans.

For example, some of the loans given to Oil and Gas companies are not being adequately serviced with many falling behind on loan repayment obligations.

Some Banks may also have been creative by restructuring those loans into longer term loans thus deferring the evil day.
The results of other non-financial institutions also buttresses this view. Cash balances of most consumer goods and oil and gas companies are wearing thin, with many of them running on overdrafts to stay liquid.

[http://nairametrics.com/5-top-nigerian-banks-report-142-increase-in-loan-loss-charges-now-n81-8-billion/]

[Low prices are crushing Canada's oil sands industry. Shell's the latest casualty. - Vox] is good,have a look at it! http://www.vox.com/2015/10/28/9631410/oil-sands-prices-shell

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/business/oil-storage-price-crash-1.3288836

Oil edged below $44 US a barrel on Monday, after another bearish outlook for crude from Goldman Sachs.

Goldman said in a research report that oil prices could go "sharply lower" as storage tanks hit capacity, predicting the oil market would not balance itself in 2016.

West Texas Intermediate oil closed down 78 cents at $43.81 US a barrel on Monday afternoon, while Brent, the main international contract, was down 59 cents at $47.42 US a barrel.

Western Canada Select, a Canadian oilsands contract, had fallen below $30 again to $29.23 US a barrel.

The oversupply of oil worldwide has had storage tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma, at record levels for most of the year. It's not just crude that is in oversupply, but also refined products.

Goldman Sachs sees further risk to crude prices which are already down 60 per cent from a year ago.

"Distillate storage utilization in the U.S. and Europe is nearing historically high levels, following near record refinery utilization, only modest demand growth (especially relative to gasoline), and increased imports from the East on refinery expansion and Chinese exports," it said in its report.

Earlier this year, Goldman predicted WTI oil could go as low as $20 a barrel.

[http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/current-cbn-policies-are-shutting-down-business-says-cso/224013/]

The Nigerian Civil Society ‎Situation Room has expressed worry over the current policies of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) which it said have succeeded in shutting down many businesses, thereby contributing to the economic challenge being faced by the country.

The group also lamented that the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari has been very slow in defining its economic policies due to lack of direction and proper economic blueprint to turn around the economy of the country.

The group made this known yesterday in Abuja while reviewing and commenting on the State of the Nation with a special focus on Nigerian Economy and other governance issues.

‎In his remarks, the Executive Director, Policy and Legal Advocacy Centre (PLAC), Mr. Clement Nwankwo said that, "government has been very slow in defining its economic policies, there is no Minister of Finance, the central bank is implementing policies that we are quite worried about in the sense that we don't see a direction of the country,

Unemployment is becoming a major concern, and businesses are not understanding what to do and how to cope with the current central bank policies that are busy shuting down businesses, it is a major concern for us."

[http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-28/crude-tipping-point-arrives-china-runs-out-space-store-oil]

Earlier this month, we reported that supertanker day-rates has soared to over $100,000 for the first time since 2008 even as Saudi Arabia was slashing its price (to a $3.20 discount to the benchmark with the largest price cut since 2012) which suggested that in an effort to shore up its reserves and capture more market share amid dwindling demand (and excess supply) - a price war has begun led by US ally Saudi Arabia, and China is hoarding crude at these low-low prices.

* * *
And then something very unexpected happened: the world quietly hit a tipping point when, according to Reuters, China ran out of space to store oil.

In a report explaining why "oil cargoes bought for state reserve stranded at China port" Reuters notes that "about 4 million barrels of crude oil bought by a Chinese state trader for the country's strategic reserves have been stranded in two tankers off an eastern port for nearly two months due to a lack of storage, two trade sources said."
One tanker, the Ocean Lily, loaded oil from the Omani port of Mina Al Fahal, Reuters' shipping data on Eikon showed.

It is unclear what crude Plata Glory is carrying.
The oil was part of a total of at least 6 million barrels of crude bought by Sinochem for government stockpiles, but destined for a commercial tank farm in the city of Weifang, connected with Huangdao with a pipeline, the trader and port source said.

The tank farm, with total storage of about 25 million barrels, is mainly owned by Shandong Hongrun Petrochemical Co, an independent refinery partly owned by Sinochem.

The delays will cost millions of dollars and indicate how China is struggling to import record amounts of crude if storage and port capacity at Qingdao, its largest oil import terminal, are unable to keep pace.

Ocean Lily and Plata Glory, two very large crude carriers carrying oil for Sinochem Corp, arrived at Huangdao, Qingdao's main oil terminal, in early September, and both were still at anchor this week, waiting to unload, according to Reuters' shipping data, and trade and port sources.

Meanwhile, as noted above, China has been scrambling to buy ever more oil, which is currently en route to Qingdao and other ports, where it took will remain inert as there is absolutely no uptake capacity at this moment.

According to a senior trader familiar with Sinochem's oil trading and cited by Reuters, the tankers "are both for SPR (strategic petroleum reserve), but no tank space is available to take that oil in."

As reported previously, China's crude oil imports rose nearly 9 percent in the first nine months of the year over a year earlier to 6.65 million bpd, driven partly by reserve building.

The problem, as this incident reveals, is that while China has been doing what it does best: stockpiling commodities,

it has had far less end demand for the raw material, and as a result the crude pipeline has gotten clogged up. And now, it appears that even oil meant to fill up its SPR (coming at a time when the US announced it would begin selling millions of barrells from its own Strategic Petroleum Reserve), is unable to get to its destination.

China said late last year the first phase of the government's emergency stockpile is storing about 90 million barrels of crude oil, with the construction of a second phase due by 2020, partly through private investment.

Huangdao is the site of one of China's first SPR tanks, with space for 20 million barrels of oil and also has plans for a second phase of similar size.

A recent move to increase competition for oil imports by granting quotas to independent refineries has added to congestion at Huangdao, where operations were already hampered following a pipeline accident two years ago. "Storage and berths were not ready for such a quick market opening," the trader said.

* * *
Broker reports show that Sinochem owns Ocean Lily, while Plata Glory was fixed on a six-month charter at around $37,750 a day in April, with an option to extend for another six months, putting the cost of keeping the two vessels idle at several million dollars.

* * *
And just like that China has, if only for the time being, run out of storage facilities.
How long until this translates into an actual drop in oil purchases, and even more importantly, how long until the U.S. itself finds itself in a comparable "overflow" bottleneck, leading to the next, and sharpest yet, drop in oil prices.

veecovee:
my friend, what is your mission here?

What will it profit you if everyone stop buying Nigerian stocks and if it crashes... maybe you don't know, but that's what your post says all. Remember that someday you ll want to buy or sell.

Heeee! take it easy every country has their issues OK. Besides there is nothing you would say here to change much... pls dont be idle go make use of your time well.

Yes every country has their issues but Nigeria own is too much.

Tell me where else regulatory body will allow such a big cap Public quoted company to be using their investors funds to play football without any serious fines or sanctions over the years ?

It took a coy as big as OANDO more than 9mths both their 2013 & 2014 F/Y results, and that has been the order of the day same with many other coys in NSE.

At the end of the day their ordinary shareholders are now bearing the BRUNT and Instead of their CEO to be apologetic he's on keke Marwa shining teeth with the first lady.

And you want me to encourage people to invest their hard earn money in such environment

cadno:
I noticed that the quantity traded in OandO has been very lean, 230k , today 705k units,
Please does that signify that investors are not selling or what ?, and why is the stock still on Full offer
will there be the possibility of a turn around is close-by, when there are no more sellers ??

The bitter truth is that WALE and his GANGS has used that last week 75million units cross-deal to trap their last set of victim so henceforth they will allow the natural market forces to play out till they are they are ready to do what is in their mind.

specialmati:
pls how can i withdraw my money from morgan capital online platform

Half bread is better than none, So withdraw your money sharply take do better thing before you hear BUY BUY BUY or just GRAB it.

feelamong:
good attempt to make a bad situation look a bit good..

who said we will not be seeing more recognition of impairment losses as the price of crude oil falls more to $20 as predicted by JP Morgan?

Oando is now a junk investment......really a shame that i was trying to acquire a riq on the back of my Oando shares..

now na to siddon look OANDO i dey now..

Same type of story BANKPHB was telling us those days "ONE DAY CARS WILL RUN ON WATER"

We never knew its our money that will finally run on water


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGJB9XNuGGM

Raider76:
Volume has started increasing. Some buyers have started coming out.

Let them come out and buy well well. Is it not the same way we see over 75million volume traded last week before the Tsunami.

Well Wale has publicly said investors should expect another another FY loss.

So i dnt think we need a Sooth-Sayer to tell us what will be the outlook of OANDO in the next 1year.

angelo82:
Jokes apart but you are really pessimistic about NSE...............Anything you are not sharing?....................I mean the real deal..............

After my BANKPHB loss experience 2011 my eyes opened like that of Adam and orientation about NSE changed totally which made me to be better off today.

Now even if somebody tells me he or she is waiting to buy Nestle @N5 i won't doubt or argue with the person.

Na person wey never really loss big money for NSE dey depend on all those nonsense analysis and valuations.

See OANDO that people were scrambling to buy N30 sometime last yr today nobody willingly to touch it with long pole @#7.

So it's not a matter of being pessimism but being realistic.

bigass:
i see Oando sell at 3.50K before Dec

Someones prophecy is about to be fulfilled

jamace:
At bolded, Zeeeezzz, my enemy number one in this business.

After the SHARE RESCONSTRUCTION is when their real success story will start.

*ThE OcToPuS*

Josh121:
Remember don't invest what u can't lose , it just a bad time for oando but it not dead

Yes OANDO is not dead but I foresee a massive share reconstruction in the nearest future.

*ThE OcToPuS*

. hedioramma:
brother lets focus stop posting all this bad news about oando there are other good stocks that are low and good to buy lets talk about eg skye bank e.t.c .

Pa ihedi which focus again people house is on fire and you want them to start chasing rat

.