₦airaland Forum

http://nairametrics.com/nigerias-new-budget-is-at-risk-as-imf-projected-20-oil-looms/

Nigeria’s freshly presented 2016 budget proposal could be at risk of being saddled with a hefty deficit, if passed in its current state.
The budget which is hinged on an assumption of $38 a barrel already smells of trouble, especially if oil prices continue its slide to around $20 a barrel in the next year; and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) seems to think that this slide very probable.

The IMF believes that this will result in the downward pressure of oil prices. Potentially prices might still fall by between $5 and $15 a barrel from the current price level.
Additionally, there are concerns about the USA lifting a ban on the exports of its oil, adding to the global supply, which is continuing to outstrip demand.

Risky Budget
This situation is significant for Nigeria because the entry of Iranian oil could see as much as $15 shaved off from the current $38 per barrel, landing the oil price at the $23 range.
With the 2016 budget benchmarked at $38 per barrel, if the price of oil falls to $20, a $39.6 million hole (N7.8 billion) could be blown in the budget. [($38-$20) x 2.5 million barrels = $39,600,000].

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-22/extreme-oil-bears-bet-on-25-20-and-even-15-a-barrel-in-2016

Oil speculators are buying options contracts that will only pay out if crude drops to as low as $15 a barrel next year, the latest sign some investors expect an even deeper slump in energy prices.

The bearish wagers come as OPEC’s effective scrapping of output limits, Iran’s anticipated return to the market and the resilience of production from countries such as Russia raise the prospect of a prolonged global oil glut.

"We view the oversupply as continuing well into next year," Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., wrote in a note on Tuesday, adding there’s a risk oil prices would fall to $20 a barrel to force production shutdowns if mild weather continues to damp demand.

The bearish outlook has prompted investors to buy put options -- which give them the right to sell at a predetermined price and time -- at strike prices of $30, $25, $20 and even $15 a barrel, according to data from the New York Mercantile Exchange and the U.S. Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, is currently trading at about $36 a barrel.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/12064450/UK-awash-with-oil-as-tankers-forced-to-turn-around.html

Record high temperatures in December have left the UK with the highest stocks of oil for five years as Europe-bound fuel tankers are forced into mid-Atlantic U-turns.

An unseasonably balmy period means the UK is on track for the warmest December in more than 100 years, and stocks of oil and gas are piling up as households turn down the heating.

Oil stocks in the UK have risen to almost 15m tonnes, which is 9pc above the same stage last year, according to the latest figures released by the Department for Energy and Climate Change.

Oil price: Brent crude hits 11-year low - BBC News http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35152037

Oil prices have fallen to levels not seen since 2004, surpassing the lows seen during the recession of 2008.

Brent crude sank to $36.05 a barrel - its weakest since July 2004 - before recovering slightly to $36.56.

A global oversupply has dramatically driven down the price of oil, with suppliers failing to reach agreements to address the glut.

Just 18 months ago, in June 2014, the price of oil was traded at $115 per barrel.

The price of US crude was also down on Monday, dropping 40 cents to $34.17 a barrel - the lowest since 2009.

PETERiCHY:
Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy -Warren Buffet.

I repurchased every single unit of my OANDO which I sold N11 in sept and even double my holdings xtaday @N5:40k.

WARNING!
This a game ONLY meant for those that can swim with the SHARKS.

*ThE OcToPuS*

I have said it countless times if you can't swim with the shark better don't board OANDO if not na una money we go dey use 4 turnover.

Xtaday quietly disemberk @ 5:93k.
now patiently waiting @Sub N4 bcoz Brent currently at $36 per barrel is heading to $20 in a couple of weeks from now

*ThE OcToPuS *

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35152037

Oil prices have fallen to levels not seen since 2004, surpassing the lows seen during the recession of 2008.

Brent crude sank to $36.05 a barrel - its weakest since July 2004 - before recovering slightly to $36.47.

The price of US crude was also down on Monday, dropping 31 cents to $34.42 a barrel - the lowest since 2009.

Here's Why There's a Huge Opportunity in Oil Prices - Fortune http://fortune.com/2015/12/21/oil-prices-low/

We’ve hit peak pessimism.
“There is no bid for oil.” Those were the first words I heard recently from Bloomberg’s Tom Keene when I turned on the television a little before five.

The media follows mood, and Mr. Keene was expressing the sentiment of crude oil traders around the globe—saturating hopelessness. No one buying. Only selling.
Finally!

Goldman Sachs GS -3.90% , for example, is forecasting $20 a barrel crude prices ahead.

Even more, investors now believe that OPEC is completely unwilling and unable to do anything to change the downward trajectory for the price oil. The once all-powerful cartel has been upended by bitter infighting, intense national self-interest and global oversupply.

But the bad news for crude doesn’t stop there. From the unusually warm weather in the US to the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates to slowing global growth ahead, everything is seen as a demand headwind for crude.

Meanwhile, crude oil overcapacity and oversupply reigns. There is so much crude out there we’ve now run out of places to put it. As one headline put it recently, “Oil Tankers Are Filling Up As Global Storage Space Runs Low.”

As I see it, investors now have every reason to sell and absolutely no reason to buy. Not only are current conditions horrific, but they’re forecast to just get worse.

The currencies of commodity-driven countries like Brazil and South Africa are in freefall, with both countries announcing new finance ministers–

And in the case of South Africa, two finance ministers, as the naming of the first replacement did nothing to stem the country’s currency collapse.

Then there was this from a new report from the International Energy Agency last week: “The golden age of coal seems to be over . .

The best time to buy is when investors have to relive their loneliest and most awkward middle school lunchroom moments. To buy commodities now means to go against the entire and very vocal cool crowd.

While few will be willing, history suggests that today’s saturating hopelessness makes this is a great time to buy.

OYIBO THE MONKEY SELLER

http://www.punchng.com/foreign-shipping-firm-quits-nigeria-over-trade-decline/

Japanese shipping line, Nippon Yusen Kaisha, is set to quit the Asia-West Africa route, Dewry, an independent maritime advisor, has said.

Data from Container Trades Statistics showed that container volumes from Asia to West Africa decreased in nine months in 2015, with the most recent year-on-year decline reaching 10 per cent.

The NYK makes two calls in Nigeria, Lagos-Apapa and Lagos-Tincan, but the country has suffered badly from crashing oil prices as it relies on oil revenue for over 90 per cent of its foreign exchange earnings.

With excess supply, Nigeria is having difficulty selling its oil. It has also been forced to sell much of its production on the spot at even lower rates.

Nigeria’s currency, the naira, has subsequently fallen to record lows against the US dollar. Construction contracts and international investment have stalled with consumer demand also considerably reduced.

Cargo volumes which fell by 30 per cent from 2014 have obliged APM Terminals to cut its workforce at its facilities in Apapa.

Dewry said, “The lacklustre demand in the trade has forced carriers to curb any growth to capacity with the monthly count of available southbound slots generally static in the last few months.

It has also predicted that more carriers might quit the sector as container volumes continue to fall, resulting in reduced vessel load factors and declining freight rates.

http://www.proshareng.com/news/Nigeria%20Economy/Failed-States-Index:-Nigeria-Ranked-15-out-of-177-Nations/7135


Nigeria was yesterday ranked the 15th most failed nation in the world, out of a total of 177 countries that were surveyed.

The country moved upwards three places from 18th position in 2008; and 17th in 2007.

The newly released Failed State Index 2009 was published by the United States think-tank and an independent research organisation,

The Fund for Peace, and the magazine Foreign Policy. this is the 5th edition, since 2005.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0U401520151221


The price of Brent crude plumbed 11-year lows on renewed worries over a global oil glut.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 slumped as low as $36.17 a barrel, the lowest since 2004 as production around the world remained at or near record highs, and a strong dollar following last week's U.S. rate increases weighed on demand.

They were 1.3 percent lower at $36.41 as of 0620 GMT while U.S. crude CLc1 slid 24 cents to $34.49 a barrel, close to Friday's 2015 lows.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/brent-oil-tumbles-to-lowest-level-since-2004-2015-12-21

Brent oil prices plummeted to levels not seen since 2004 in Asia on Monday, as an expanding global surplus due to high-paced production output sparked fears that prices will fall further.

Brent prices for front-month February LCOG6, -1.98% delivery hit $36.17 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe Exchange, the lowest intraday level since the middle of July in 2004. Brent was most recently off 60 cents, or 1.6%, to $36.28 a barrel.

U.S. Benchmark West Texas Intermediate CLF6, -1.21% fell 36 cents, or 1%, to $34.37 a barrel.

Both benchmarks have lost at least 35% since the beginning of the year.

http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/2015/12/nigerias-crude-oil-falls-to-31-49/

Govt orders special fuel supply • External trade slides by N2.49tr over forex • CBN says currency crash due to speculative attacks
<strong

AS the Federal Government grapples with how to salvage the economy, the continued sliding of the price of crude oil may require that its effort should be intensified.

Indeed, Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude oil hit its lowest level at $31.49 a barrel at the weekend due to global crude oil glut at the international market. The price of Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) basket of 12 crudes stood at $31.49 a barrel compared with $32.28 it earlier recorded.

APC DON PLAY US 419.

Baby since a litre of petrol is now higher than a plate of pounded yam. we rather eat and do the riding.

Buhari no go kill our love ooo.

Bloomberg - Brent Falls to Lowest Intraday Level Since July 2004 http://bloom.bg/1UUb6Sf

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/iduskbn0u400t20151221?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=56776cde04d3017d8a79015d&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook

Brent crude prices fell on Monday to their lowest since 2008 on renewed worries over a global oil glut, with production around the world remaining at or near record highs and new supplies looming from Iran and the United States.

Brent futures fell as low as $36.32 per barrel in overnight trading around 0000 GMT, the weakest since 2008, before edging back to $36.49 per barrel by 0203 GMT.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were down 20 cents at $34.53 per barrel and close to last Friday's 2015 lows.

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/12/oil-to-be-available-at-an-affordable-price-within-365-days-kachikwu/

Dr Ibe Kachikwu, the Minister of State for Petroleum, has promised to bring about fundamental change in Nigeria’s oil sector in 360 days. He gave the promise on Saturday when All Progressives Congress (APC) chieftains in Delta, led by Mr Jones Erue, the party chairman, visited him at his country home in Onicha-Ugbo, Aniocha North LGA.

“The country’s oil sector will experience a turnaround such that the refineries will work effectively and products will be made available to the people at an affordable price within 365 days,’’ he said. He said that as a technocrat, he came to give his best to turn the petroleum sector around for the benefit of all Nigerians.

Nigerians won't kill us with comics

http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/capital-market-suffered-20-loss-in-7-months-say-analysts/228422/#.Vnbwo70o1_o.facebook

Amidst the sustained negative performance of equities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange, especially through the second quarter to the end of the year, Capital market analysts have put the total loss incurred at 20 per cent for the period between May 29 and now.

In what looks like a post-mortem of capital market performance between May 29, when the current administration came on board and now, capital market analysts said a combination of the flight of foreign portfolio investment and a raft of monetary policy decisions have robbed off negatively on the activities on the exchange translating into a loss of 20 per cent within the period.

http://www.punchng.com/banks-stop-use-of-atm-cards-abroad/

Nigerians should brace up. those with short term fund use the opportunity of end of the year rally / new year estacy to bail out because what happened this year is TOM and JERRY compare to the realities of 2016.

For those that don't know what to do with their money better go and buy land from Pa Emma and start AGRICULTURAL business.

I don talk my own. he or she that has ears let them hear.

*ThE OcToPuS*

Raider76:
Hope the offers don't show up once the price reaches N1.30. People are only looking for 10% nowadays.

In this precarious global markets bailing out with 5% profit or waiting for another 5yrs to break even which is preferable.

Well like I said some moons ago another GLOBAL MELTDOWN is actually staring us in the face but this time around its on a slow and steady basis.

STOCK MARKET is the more you look the less you see.

http://news.yahoo.com/house-passes-bill-freeing-u-oil-exports-senate-161742293.html

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Congress voted on Friday to repeal the 40-year-old ban on exporting U.S. crude oil in an energy policy shift sought by Republicans as part of a bipartisan deal that also provided unprecedented tax incentives for wind and solar power.

The Senate, on a 65-33 vote, approved lifting the ban and providing five-year extensions of tax breaks to boost renewable energy development as part of a $1.8 trillion government spending and tax relief bill that President Barack Obama quickly signed into law.


GOT THIS NEWS AROUND 20MINS B4 END OF TRADE XTADAY.

$20 PER BARREL HERE WE COME!

20000 ASI HERE WE COME!

ALL I'M SEEING HERE IS NOTHING BUT A SIGNIFICANT WEATHY TRANSFER FOR THOSE THAT CAN SWIN WITH THE SHARKS,

IF YOU CANT BETTER STAY OFF THE OCEAN BCOZ IT CAN BE FATAL.

*ThE OcToPuS*

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-sticks-below-35-a-barrel-amid-relentless-global-glut-2015-12-18

Crude oil prices continued their rout on Friday on reports of additional buildup in U.S. crude stockpiles, fueling worries of a worsening global glut that has already affected prices struggling in the multiyear-lows range.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in January CLF6, -0.60% fell 46 cents, or 1.3%, to $34.49 a barrel.

February Brent crude LCOG6, -0.57% on London’s ICE Futures exchange slid 20 cents, or 0.5%, to 38.86 a barrel.

PETERiCHY:
Time to buy OANDO because subsidy will soon die a natural death.

*ThE OcToPuS*

http://www.proshareng.com/news/Oil%20Sector/Forte-Oil-Oando-win-Nigerias-2016-Crude-Oil-Contracts/29580

Indigenous companies, Forte Oil Plc and OANDO Plc were among 21 companies handed crude oil term lifting contracts for 2016 by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation.

21 companies handed crude oil term lifting contracts for 2016 by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation.

The contracts cover 991,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil, worth US$13.5 billion at current crude oil prices, which is roughly half of Nigeria's crude oil production of around 2 million bpd.

The list includes refiners such as Spain's Cepsa, Italy's Saras, India's IOC and ENOC of the United Arab Emirates, as well as trading houses - Trafigura, Mercuria and Vitol and international oil companies - ENI, Total, Exxon and Shell.

The list is pared down from the final 2015 contract list, which comprised 43 companies and did not include any global traders.

bigass:
buy skaei bank

So you've time for someone his destiny has been reset by Skyebank.

Time to buy OANDO because subsidy will soon die a natural death.

*ThE OcToPuS*

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-16/europe-stocks-advance-in-countdown-to-fed-as-oil-shares-gain

With only few hours remaining before the much-awaited Federal Reserve interest-rate decision, European investors are pushing a stock rebound into a second day.

The real impact on today’s decision happened in the last seven, eight days,” said Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, who helps manage about 250 million euros ($266 million) as head of trading at MPPM EK in Eppstein, Germany. “Investors will listen very carefully to the wording from the Fed and after we digest the statement we will identify the direction of the market. What investors want to hear is that the U.S. economy is in good shape and that the speed further rate hikes will be very gradual.”

[China Has Something to Tell OPEC: Oil Prices Have Fallen Too Far - Bloomberg Business]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-16/china-has-something-to-tell-opec-oil-prices-have-fallen-too-far

The world’s biggest energy consumer may have a message for OPEC.

China’s decision to suspend fuel price cuts as crude continues its decline is sending a signal to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries that prices are too low, according to a report from Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.

The move gives oil a price floor around $38, according to the analysis.

“China’s decision to not cut refined product (gasoline, diesel) prices is a first,” analysts including Neil Beveridge wrote in the report.

The move “sends a signal to OPEC that its largest customer (China) believes that oil prices are too cheap.”

China, the world’s second-biggest oil consumer, said it will suspend fuel price cuts while crude continues to fall in order to slow consumption growth and trim automobile emissions.

Gasoline demand in the country increased 10.4 percent in the first 10 months of the year from the same period of 2014, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency.

[Oil at $100? 10 'outrageous' forecasts for 2016]http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/16/oil-at-100-10-outrageous-forecasts-for-2016.html

Oil rebounding to $100 a barrel by the end of 2016? A strong euro amid quantitative easing? These are just some of the "outrageous predictions" from Saxo Bank for 2016.

The Danish investment bank's 10 "unlikely, yet perhaps underappreciated" events that could have significant consequences on the financial landscape also include the Russian ruble rising 20 percent versus the US dollar/euro basket.

The bank also suggests a meltdown in global corporate bonds could be on the cards – a claim that is perhaps not so outlandish in light of the current scare in the U.S. junk bond market.

[Congressional Leaders Agree to Lift 40-Year Ban on Oil Exports - WSJ] http://www.wsj.com/articles/congressional-leaders-agree-to-lift-40-year-ban-on-oil-exports-1450242995

WASHINGTON—In a move considered unthinkable even a few months ago, congressional leaders have agreed to lift the nation’s 40-year-old ban on oil exports, a historic action that reflects political and economic shifts driven by a boom in U.S. oil drilling.

The measure allowing oil exports is at the center of a deal that Republican leaders announced late Tuesday on spending and tax legislation. However, Democrats haven't confirmed the agreement. Both the House and Senate still must pass it and President Barack Obama must sign it into law.

The deal would lift the ban, a priority for Republicans and the oil industry, and at the same time adopt environmental and renewable measures that Democrats sought. These include extending wind and solar tax credits; reauthorizing for three years a conservation fund; and excluding any measures that block major Obama administration environmental regulations, according to a GOP aide.

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/12/fg-pushes-for-electricity-tariff-increase/

MINISTER of Power, Works and Housing Mr. Babatunde Fashola, said Nigerians should expect increase in electricity tariff in no distant time. This is as he also indicated the Ministry of Petroleum has signified their interest to build certain critical pipelines to transport gas to the power plants that will add another 2,000 mega watts to the national grid within 12-15 months.

[http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/12/fuel-subsidy-to-go-next-year/]

*As petrol ‘ll sell for N97 per litre

*Harder times ahead, FG alerts Nigerians

*Personnel cost to drop by N100bn

*FG to fund 2016 N6trn budget with IGR

LAGOS — Following increased pressure on revenue and the expenditure profile, the Federal Government has finally yielded to domestic and international pressures to remove fuel subsidy.

This is coming as crude oil prices hit a seven-year low with global reference crude, West Texas Intermediate and Brent trading yesterday at $34.7 and $36.7 per barrel respectively, effectively disrupting Nigeria’s $38 per barrel benchmark for 2016 budget.

The crash has resulted into about N1.45 trillion shortfall in the value of the projected oil output in the international market based on production target increased in the 2016 plan to 2.2 million barrel per day (mbpd), up from actual 1.9 mbpd in 2015.

[U.S. oil rises, reversing course after nearing 11-year lows | Reuters]http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0TX02920151214

U.S. crude rose nearly 2 percent Monday, recovering slightly after moving within a hair of 11-year lows, but analysts and traders said it is still too early to declare the market has reached its bottom.

Both U.S. and global benchmark Brent crude have been tumbling downward since an OPEC meeting Dec. 4 at which the oil-producing countries removed their production ceiling, exacerbating global crude oversupply. Monday's close marked the first significant rebound since the meeting.

Early in the day, both Brent and U.S. crude futures fell by as much as 4 percent to their lowest levels since the start of the 2008 financial crisis, before turning around midday in the United States.

Brent futures for January delivery LCOc1 settled down 1 cent at $37.92 a barrel. U.S. crude CLc1 rose 69 cents, or 1.94 percent, to $36.31.