₦airaland Forum

10:57AM BR-E-A-KI-NG! INVESTORS book above N300.00billion loss in just 27mins as Huge Sell activities hit stocksin #EarlyTRADES @NSEcontact
11.00AM #BREAKING Stocks record sharp fall in #EarlyTRADES, @NSEcontact tumbles further by 3.01% as INVESTORS book N314.24bn in just 30mins
11:16 SECTOR-WATCH! #BankingSTOCKS are under intense PRESSURE, no Gainers yet as VOLATILITY hits the sub-sector considerably
11:48AM @ZenithBank down by 4.93% @gtbank dips by 4.98% @UBAGroup tumbles by 4.42% @StanbicIBTC slips by 0.44% as @NSEcontact down by 3.29%
12:07PM OFFICIAL! #Stocks end morning session BEARISH, @NSEcontact DOWN by 3.38%, trading at 29,333.18bpts, 3Gainers Vs 36Losers
Effect of JP MORGAN DELISTING!!!

myjoy08:
Thank you Sir Peterichy for bringing it on. You have done well! Hope Dubai is fine to invest in?

For now CASH is KiNG I made 13% profit frm FBNH which consist 88% of my portfolio lastwk and some people said I'm depressed and i need to see a docto. Now tell me who needs the doctor?

Well like I said earlier if you refuse to learn from others experience then you will learn the hardway.

To be successful in STOCK BUSINESS learn mostly how to make money during the bear period than the bull because the market is filled with disappointment.

Pessimists that knows their onions makes more money in this field than optimists because the bear is mostly around than the bull.

[NGSEINDX Quote - Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index - Bloomberg Markets] is good,have a look at it! http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Market currently losing 3.3%
20000 is not far-fetched

PETERiCHY:
"The wise investors should forget about the market noise, Stay FOCUS and keep sharpening your CUTLASSES because the wall of JERICHO is about to fall and we gonna enter the city and plunder it big time"

*ThE OcToPuS*

http://www.proshareng.com/news/Bonds/JP-Morgan-delivers-its-judgement-Proshare/28530


This is a demotion for Nigeria and amounts to reputational damage. Since the FGN as well as the CBN are fire-fighting in the face of the global headwinds, we do not expect a dramatic response on their part.

Nigeria is not eligible for re-inclusion in the GBI-EM indices for at least 12 months. We can assume that JP Morgan would not lightly restore Nigeria.

Nigeria was admitted to a similar but far smaller series of indices by Barclays in April 2013.

Elai147:
tins go change very soon.

Yes by the time all-SHARE index get around 20000.

And let me repeat myself. For those that will dare jump into OANDO above N6 you are on your own

Elai147:
Morgan can't even sell. So even if you send your mandate by email nothing can be done. I called them this morning and they said they can't even sell. They are currently working on it and said it should be up before the end of market. Nothing like Meristem.

Why will it work wen they ve not finish selling their own stocks. Abi who wan carry last

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL5N11E3Y320150908

JP Morgan will remove Nigeria from its Government Bond Index (GBI-EM) by the end of October, the bank said on Tuesday, after warning the government of Africa's biggest economy that currency controls were making transactions too complicated.

The removal will force funds to sell Nigerian bonds, triggering potentially significant capital outflows and raising borrowing costs for the government.

Struggling with a plunge in vital oil revenue, Nigeria had imposed currency restrictions to defend the naira after the burning of dollar reserves failed to halt a slide.

The JP Morgan index tracks around $210 billion in assets under management.

Some bonds will be removed from the index by the end of September and the rest by the end of October, JP Morgan said.

The bank had warned Nigeria that to stay in the index, it would have to restore liquidity to its currency market in a way that allowed foreign investors tracking the index to conduct transactions with minimal hurdles.

http://nairametrics.com/jp-morgan-index-list-of-possible-implications-when-nigeria-is-evetually-kicked-out/


The current Buhari Government has been taking credit for some of the policy initiatives carried out by Goodluck Jonathan Government such as stable power, the Treasury Single Account, tax initiatives, war on terror, renewal of strong diplomatic ties with the US etc. The Buhari Government is also not relenting in calling out the past government for its bad policies and alleged corruption. This development will now give critics of the current government, the opposition party and sympathisers of the past government enough armory to blame the current government.
They will surely blame the Buhari government for not acting swiftly enough to stop the decision of JP Morgan considering that it issued the threat about 9 months ago. They will also say it is because of the slow mode of operation of the current government (which for example has not announced a cabinet more than 100 days after being in office) that has made the CBN Governor act alone thus portraying the country as one without an economic direction. This will cost the president a lot of political capital as even his supporters must now be jittery.
Bond Yields
When Nigeria borrows money by selling bonds they pay investors based on the on prevailing bond yields. For example, a unit of a bond priced at N1000 may have been originally sold at an interest rate of 10%, that is N100 per N1000. With Nigerian thrown out of the index holders of that bond could dump it and sell for lower than N1000 per paper just to exit. If the average price drops to N800 due to high volume of sellers then that interest rate of 10% is now 12.5%, that is N100 dividend by N800.
This means the next time the Nigerian Government goes out to borrow it will no longer attract a 10% yield but will now borrow from investors at a yield of 12.5% or even more. This will cost the government more money in servicing interest thus taking money it could have used for capital projects for debt servicing.
Lack of foreign demand
By taking Nigeria off the index, there will be little or no demand for our bonds from foreign investors. Already, since JPM threatened to yank Nigerian off back in January, foreign holding of our bonds has dropped from a peak of $11 billion in 2013 to $3 billion today. It is therefore likely that this may even shrink further thus affecting the demand for our debts. A lack of demand for our debts means yields may even get higher as fewer investors will now sought for our bonds
Gain for other emerging markets
With Nigeria out of the scene, other emerging markets in Africa like Ghana, Kenya and even South Africa could now be more attractive to investors. They will simply now move their funds to competing countries leaving Nigeria in its wake. Since investors like to follow the money, it is also likely that other forms of investments may elude Nigeria because of this singular move.
Prestige and Clout
With the above happening, Nigeria will lose its prestige as not just the largest economy in Africa but the economy attracting the most foreign investments. This will be damaging to an economy that has been thumping itself as the destination to be for foreign investors.
Corporate Bonds
Local companies and banks also borrow money from foreign investors by selling foreign denominated bonds and also Naira bonds. Now that the Federal Government is likely to see their borrowing cost go up due to this development, it is likely that banks and other corporates seeking to borrow may have to pay more in interest as well. Some companies may not even have the courage to borrow with bonds again due to high lending rates and may result in some companies gets starved of funds so much that they may start to incur losses or even fold up. For those that have even borrowed refinancing such loans will now be expensive as yields have already gone up.
Higher lending rates
For the banks that are lucky enough to borrow, they will have to pass on that cost to someone else. Small businesses which rely on banks for small loans such as overdrafts, local purchase orders, letters of credit etc. may also see their borrowing rates rise even higher. For individuals with consumer loans they may also be expecting a letter from banks telling them that their loan rates have gone up.
Foreign Currency Cost
It is also likely that foreign currencies will cost more to use due to this action. Holiday makers or business travelers who use their cards abroad for foreign denominated transactions may also see themselves paying more whenever they spend their naira debit cards. Since some banks also channels some of their foreign borrowings in the forex market it is likely that they will charge end users more to recover the higher cost of borrowing.
Shallow market
With the exit of most foreign investors the long term plan of the Debt Management Office of ensuring that our bond market is deep is now in jeopardy. With little demand, it is unlikely that the government and other private companies seeking foreign currency loans will use the bond market as a possible source. This will make the market shallow and unattractive and could even throw some companies out of business. For example, Fund Sourcing Companies, Legal Advisers and other consultants may witness a huge reduction in deals thus affecting their revenues.
Ripple Effect
The Nigerian stock market which has seen some bullish trends in recent days may also be negatively impacted. With this announcement it is likely that this may hurt the confidence of foreign investors which make up about 45 to 50% of transactions in the Nigerian Stock Exchange. If they decide to exit the market because of this then the market may just be primed for another long bearish run.
Devaluation
If this situation is not handled properly it may also trigger another massive devaluation. This could be caused by foreign investors who have had enough and will now use this decision by JPM as a reason to pull out their funds. Pulling out their funds creates demand pressure on forex and may result in a devaluation of some sort.

lancee:
Nse surviving before dem born some people

NSE giving investors sleepless night since 1961

ihedioramma:
hello, this not for oando that vs, is for unity bank but are you sleeping the time it was #9?. i think i was with you yesday how come you tell myjoy08 you are not in nigeria? or did you take okada after?.

Pa ihedi abeg no let those in Unitybank catch you.

Well my last batch of OANDO was bought @N9:20k which brought my average to N13:28k but you ought to be sleeping by now coz we are 3hrs ahead Nigeria time and it's still 9am in this divide.

For now CASH is KING till November ending you can now buy one and get five free.

lancee:
mini -bull VS bear

No
mini-bull VS Grandpapa bear

myjoy08:
Sir Peterichy, and u think your Octopus is right? Well, Octopus had been decieving its members since the day Oando closed the COP deal! Octopus needs some checkup and rebalancing of wheels...(kidding)! What is your joy if NSE fall into 20,000 range? Is it because you live overseas? Or is it because u are paid in foreign denomination? Or is it because you can take advantage of some of us? Chai, it is well!

MOG, if you think *ThE OcToPuS* Group dont make losses then you're dead wrong rather we try as much as possible to minimise, that's why we are patiently waiting for OANDO at sub N6.

On a more serious note for you to be a successful entrepreneur you ought to dissociate your emotions from business. That was the major reason Saul lost his kingdom. he was ask to destroy everything about the Amelekites but along the line he became emotional (1st Samuel:15vs1-28).

Hook on that and stay bless.

davide470:
Lol. The negative energy is expected na. School fees and House rents are in the market, so...

From my view, the equities market in Nigeria is largely driven by Sentiments and Perception. Fundamentals is rarely being used by most traders viz a viz speculators.. I won't be surprised if the bourse looses tomorrow and some days more, then starts rallying because of low price and nothing more

What are your expectations jare?

You've just said the crux of the matter.

We humans source information and process it for our benefits and that of our loved ones.

Every investor primary aim is to make money and more money so nobody is taking advantage of anybody.

It's only a tree that hears it will be cut down and still stand.

On a last note our prayer point should be "May God not allow us to be at the receiving end" AMEN!

735i:
The decision was made this afternoon.. It will probably be public by tomorrow..
Nigeria will be phased out over two month-end rebalancing periods begining september 30th and ending Oct 30th.
By Oct 30th, we'll be out of the index.

Who wants the bull run to end? no need to take it personal

My instinct never lied for once.
20000 basis point here we come.

* ThE OcToPuS *

"The wise investors should forget about the market noise, Stay FOCUS and keep sharpening your CUTLASSES because the wall of JERICHO is about to fall and we gonna enter the city and plunder it big time"

*ThE OcToPuS*

myjoy08:
Madam, in all opinion, rumors, assertion, and even Octopus decision, Banking sectors is where to be for now

http://businessdayonline.com/2015/09/cash-squeeze-hits-banks-as-nibor-volatility-surges/


“Banks are feeling the pinch….through tight CRR, coupled with the implementation of the treasury single account (TSA), and the recent requirement for banks to provide the naira for CBN FX purchases 48 hours in advance,” Renaissance Capital Bank analysts, Adesoji Solanke and Olamipo Ogunsanya, said in a September 1 note.


Furthermore, the CBN is withdrawing $5.5bn of deposits linked to Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas Company (NLNG) and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) from the banks; 50 percent of this amount is scheduled to have been withdrawn by end-August, with the balance potentially withdrawn by year-end.

Some banks may be negatively affected by the tight money supply expressed by higher NIBOR.

http://businessdayonline.com/2015/09/buhari-gives-sept-15-deadline-for-tsa-compliance/

Cloud gathers before rainfall.

myjoy08:
Oando 11.70
UBA 4.14
FBNH 6.77
FCMB 2.58

If to say you be market Maker, Walai you will finish your company money where u dey defend Stock

realjoker:
The Yoruba and Igbo rivalry be like Apple vs Android rivalry Yoruba is Apple while Igbo is android

Between the 2 girls which of them resemble a yoruba and an igbo?

currentprice:
make you people leave PETERiCHY alone ,,,,,he is in pain period,,,, sold his FBHN two days ago,,, thought he made the kill waiting for the fbnh to go back to 5 for re-load,,,,,but fbnh continue rising since then

ThE OcToPuS fail since 1961

You people can be very funny I'm pained that I made 13% from FBNH within 4days or what? While most people that are trying to break even come here to make faces.

Mind you i ve been in this business for well over 10yrs so my warning is mostly for newbies to take precautions not for a riffraff that kept deceiving himself with 200% profit year in year out.

ihedioramma:
your warning is it buy or not ? down or up ? .

Simple if don't have an idle fund don't go near NSE more expecially at this point. There is fire on the mountain.

jarkbauer:
WRONG CHOICES though not your fault sha

So which ones are the right choices?
Below are some of 2013 prices.

SKYE = N7
ACCESS =N12
UBA =N10
UBN=N11
FCMB=N5.5 to mention but few.

In essence when you understand that the real chances of making profit in the STOCK MARKET is 1/10 it will help you make a better choice.

myjoy08:
For instance, like your safe haven Oando?

Go and check the major message I ve been preaching since last yr was that if you dnt ve a long term idle fund then don't come near the stock market.

Forget all the faces people come here to make bcuz alot are caught in the web and now live in regrets by November you will get a clearer picture of my warning

angelo82:
FBNH bus will reach 15 by April....................

In Stock Market optimism has killed uncountable people.

myjoy08:
Slow and steady we will get there. Thank God i don't wait till Ministerial lists is announced or November to board that Canaan Land buses ...lol

FBNH and FCMB on my mind right now...

Was this not the same UBA that was selling above N9 by this time last?

Youngzedd:
FLOURMILL falls back to 2010 price-range on fresh sell pressure.

2moro somebody will come 2 argue that Stock is not a gamble. This was a stock that sold N82 in 2012 when they took over Bagco

myjoy08:
Sir Peterichy, I think you assume that stock market can be predicted? You might be on a long rope when it comes to your Octopus? Stock market can never ever be predicted. Stay on your own lane by capitalizing on what works for you to make money!

Mr. Optimist since you are in doubt of Stock market prediction. Go and mark it by the end of November the ALL-SHARE-INDEX will be hovering around 23000 basis point.

*ThE OcToPuS*

ogoo4real:
Considering the price of Afriprud and Skye bank, which of them is preferable for JIJO now.

Mr. Man don't be in a haste to lose money, keep calm and be watching the ALL-SHARE-INDEX whenever it drops below 28000 you are free to jump in.

*ThE OcToPuS*