Very apt analysis.


quote author=ORIENTATION101 post=104808522] whenever you see any of them ask them that simple question and you see the go mute.
Since 4th republic kick started in 1999 PDP has lost 90% of presidential elections in core north (north east and North west region).
They won it convincingly once in 1999 ,and rigged shamelessy in 2007 of which yaradua admitted public .
since then PDP has lost presidential elections in core north woefully in 2003, 2011,2015,2019.
The funny thing is that the political caucus that pdp usually lost to in core north re the one in power currently. And some clowns believe pdp can defeat them due conspiracy theories that plays in their head.
For pdp to get back to power they have to take back south west and north central from Apc and join it with their block votes in south east and south south region then worryless about their nightmare in core north.
Unfortunately this is not going to happen APC is already eating from pdp bloc votes in SS/SE.
And pdp dont have thr political clout to take south west back from APC.
While north central is dead on arrival for them cos they only have one Governor in the region.[/quote]

Asgard73:


Oyin and Agagu are still the best performing Yoruba Governors of their time

Oyinlola developed Osun State..

Akande did the secretariat at Ede Road.. and that was it

Oyinlola brought Osun State from Bush to town..

Gbam.
Correct

[s]

atorioke:


If Nation Newspaper like make dem bias that na their problem. You see the President so come 2023, na North I go vote. South West think they are wiser than South South and South East. You are occupying the office of Vice President currently and still want the seat of President to be zoned to you in 2023. Oh yeah, South East and South South are fools na. The last time someone from there became President, it was due to massive support from South South, South East and North, and not them. Waiting patiently for Tambuwal or Atiku to be PDP candidate make I see the Ekpa from South West wey wan become President. They think they are politically smart. If South is to retain power, the seat must be zone to South South or South East. South West option is for Buhari to rig the election for them, that is why Tinubu is still loyal to Buhari. He knows he doesn't have the number, that is why APC was considering making Goodluck their Candidate but Goodluck fast pass them (make me President and then their Fulani CJN go interpret the constitution to mean say Goodluck nor suppose contest because he is restricted by the constitution, and then gbam, they swear in the vice who will be a Fulani from North). Goodluck don see the future. No Southerner without the support of South East and South South will ever become President. It is not boasting but the fact. There are 11 states in South South and South East and 6 in South West. If they don't consider you, na North go leave their candidate come vote you? Make we see. More than 30 percent of people in Lagos State are from these zones. We already know that they are the ones giving those votes to PDP right from time even in 2015 and 2019. With them, PDP is sure of 30 percent of the total votes in Lagos. Rivers voting strength don finish Oyo own, Delta don paralyse Ogun, Edo go neutralise Ondo, Akwa Ibom go take on Osun, Cross Rivers go work on Ekiti small population. Then South East votes plus Bayelsa votes go be extra. What the South West failed to realise is that the political hatred the South South have for them currently is more than the hatred the South East have for them either politically or socially, and this was caused by them, teaming with the North to remove Jonathan.

Abeg no much talk.

[/s]



Spot the difference. Rivers no fit near Oyo Shay u hear?

I'm a card carrying member of PDP, but never will I vote or support a Northern candidates in 2019, I will rather support Tinubu than support another northener on the mantra of party.
Bullshit

atorioke:


If Nation Newspaper like make dem bias that na their problem. You see the President so come 2023, na North I go vote. South West think they are wiser than South South and South East. You are occupying the office of Vice President currently and still want the seat of President to be zoned to you in 2023. Oh yeah, South East and South South are fools na. The last time someone from there became President, it was due to massive support from South South, South East and North, and not them. Waiting patiently for Tambuwal or Atiku to be PDP candidate make I see the Ekpa from South West wey wan become President. They think they are politically smart. If South is to retain power, the seat must be zone to South South or South East. South West option is for Buhari to rig the election for them, that is why Tinubu is still loyal to Buhari. He knows he doesn't have the number, that is why APC was considering making Goodluck their Candidate but Goodluck fast pass them (make me President and then their Fulani CJN go interpret the constitution to mean say Goodluck nor suppose contest because he is restricted by the constitution, and then gbam, they swear in the vice who will be a Fulani from North). Goodluck don see the future. No Southerner without the support of South East and South South will ever become President. It is not boasting but the fact. There are 11 states in South South and South East and 6 in South West. If they don't consider you, na North go leave their candidate come vote you? Make we see. More than 30 percent of people in Lagos State are from these zones. We already know that they are the ones giving those votes to PDP right from time even in 2015 and 2019. With them, PDP is sure of 30 percent of the total votes in Lagos. Rivers voting strength don finish Oyo own, Delta don paralyse Ogun, Edo go neutralise Ondo, Akwa Ibom go take on Osun, Cross Rivers go work on Ekiti small population. Then South East votes plus Bayelsa votes go be extra. What the South West failed to realise is that the political hatred the South South have for them currently is more than the hatred the South East have for them either politically or socially, and this was caused by them, teaming with the North to remove Jonathan.

Abeg no much talk.

Suffer no dey tire you. See eh, there's only one tribe worse than the fulanis and that's another Fulani. Anything to make sure a Fulani or northern Muslim doesn't become president come 2023 is very much welcomed

Asgard73:


How many of you in the south..
osibanjo .. which south

Yoruba south or south east and south south ..

Which of the south will vote osibanjo a Yoruba man?

You guys don’t understand

Consider reality on ground and not fantasy.. not wishes .

Any south that votes for another Muslim or northerner is a foolish southern region

Monogamy:


Bro sentiment apart, that's logical.

Pdp are just too arrogant.. So if they can't zone to SE, how about SS

Exactly. They shouldn't even think of the SE. They will lose if they present an Igbo man. Igbos aren't ready. No one will take them seriously at this time. SS or SW would make a lot of sense. And please, not TINUBU, that guy na Muslim. NOT TO BE TRUSTED IN 2023

Skodiswayze:
[s][/s]



Spot the difference. Rivers no fit near Oyo Shay u hear?

Go and check the voting strength of Rivers and Ofun from ObJ to Buhari. Nor Kon dey use election between two northerners and vice from South West take conclude.

ityP:




Suffer no dey tire you. See eh, there's only one tribe worse than the fulanis and that's another Fulani. Anything to make sure a Fulani or northern Muslim doesn't become president come 2023 is very much welcomed

I nor dey suffer baba. Maybe you dey suffer.

Everyone from south meaning pdp don zone ticket to the north be dat.

Asgard73:


... Yoruba will always make reference to Gej...
Forgetting that Gej is not a Yoruba man

... and that Buhari won Gej because of their betrayal and massive rigging in the north.. based on their desperation for presidency.

This Yoruba people still believe their propaganda
Apc south will beat pdp north in 2023...

That very funny.

They will soon call Abiola 92’

U keep on with this ur stupid surface politics. Politics is local ... Forget North vote north mantra as ure championing.. Tell me the machinery PDP has in North and the bargaining strentgh and u won't have any force..

Why do u think SW voted against GEJ? It's Cox of bargaining power.. APC still has the bargaining Strength.

Osinbanjo on the ballot is sold already , no much campaign and conviction, he is a straight win until proven otherwise,
APC has the power Governor's, SW has her own Population to demean SS/SE 2/3rd vote,
Middle belt are pro SW, Osinbanjo aside now,

To even say Atiku age will b used against him,
To even say a Fulani Muslim again is enough to flood campaign against Atiku.

And infact if ATiku will b coming out Not with Peter Obi Cox that a parallel loose for him.

Understand the fact that Politics is local that is what APC is banking on..

Those who are in PDP in Oyo will be like, (I'm voting Osinbanjo and not APC).. That's even if Makinde won't vote Osinbanjo..

If u want to test the water open a link and do an online voting between Atiku, Tinubu, Osinbanjo both in North and SS/SE only.. Osinbanjo will still beat the duo Tinubu and Atiku combine..

ityP:



Any south that votes for another Muslim or northerner is a foolish southern region

Says a Yoruba man..

Any easterner or south south that votes for Yoruba is a foolish southerner..

We all geh sense

danilmo:


U keep on with this ur stupid surface politics. Politics is local ... Forget North vote north mantra as ure championing.. Tell me the machinery PDP has in North and the bargaining strentgh and u won't have any force..

Why do u think SW voted against GEJ? It's Cox of bargaining power.. APC still has the bargaining Strength.

Osinbanjo on the ballot is sold already , no much campaign and conviction, he is a straight win until proven otherwise,
APC has the power Governor's, SW has her own Population to demean SS/SE 2/3rd vote,
Middle belt are pro SW, Osinbanjo aside now,

To even say Atiku age will b used against him,
To even say a Fulani Muslim again is enough to flood campaign against Atiku.

And infact if ATiku will b coming out Not with Peter Obi Cox that a parallel loose for him.

Understand the fact that Politics is local that is what APC is banking on..

Those who are in PDP in Oyo will be like, (I'm voting Osinbanjo and not APC).. That's even if Makinde won't vote Osinbanjo..

If u want to test the water open a link and do an online voting between Atiku, Tinubu, Osinbanjo both in North and SS/SE only.. Osinbanjo will still beat the duo Tinubu and Atiku combine..

K.
Next.

Asgard73:


Says a Yoruba man..

Any easterner or south south that votes for Yoruba is a foolish southerner..

We all geh sense

I'm not a Yoruba man. Heck, the Yorubas follow for who put us for where we dey. But vex for foolish Yorubas that installed this stupid govt shouldn't make us not reason sensibly. Any southerner should ascend the presidential seat; be it SS or SW. I would have said SE but truth is, SE isn't ready. Even they know this

atorioke:


Go and check the voting strength of Rivers and Ofun from ObJ to Buhari. Nor Kon dey use election between two northerners and vice from South West take conclude.

Those people don’t know politics

Reason Yoruba has always been in opposition from the days of independent.. till 2015 .. that lick shined on them ... based on Northerners quest for power .. and Yoruba were seen as willing tool to betray south..

2023 ... we will see the northern region that will betray north.

Wetin Yoruba know for politics

That election rigging wey southwest the rig to increase numbers

Every region will rig and start posting over 2 million votes like Ekiti Ondo ogun ..

Imagine how this ghosted states always come out with millions during elections

Not like the travel to the states like the northerners that travels to vote during elections

2023 will shock people...

ityP:



I'm not a Yoruba man. Heck, the Yorubas follow for who put us for where we dey. But vex for foolish Yorubas that installed this stupid govt shouldn't make us not reason sensibly. Any southerner should ascend the presidential seat; be it SS or SW. I would have said SE but truth is, SE isn't ready. Even they know this

Oga you’re dreaming...

Power will return North ... will really want to argue with you... but you’ve not been outside southwest or anywhere north

You can come from heaven .. no be my business

Osibanjo is not selling in the north... what has he done for Northern Christians in his tenure .. talk more of Northern Muslims

East and south ... won’t vote osibanjo for anything..

Na only yorub they shout southern President... no other southern region is buying the idea..

So which Yoruba candidate is sellable in the south east north. .. maybe southwest?

Asgard73:


Oga you’re dreaming...

Power will return North ... will really want to argue with you... but you’ve not been outside southwest or anywhere north

You can come from heaven .. no be my business

Osibanjo is not selling in the north... what has he done for Northern Christians in his tenure .. talk more of Northern Muslims

East and south ... won’t vote osibanjo for anything..

Na only yorub they shout southern President... no other southern region is buying the idea..

So which Yoruba candidate is sellable in the south east north. .. maybe southwest?

You be northerner. So I no surprise

Monogamy:


One good thing about Nigeria politics, SW know their way around. 2023 won't be different.

And when you are talking about South, kindly speak for your region SE... SE are not even in the scheme of things politically in Nigeria..

We are waiting to see how you guys would use your mouth to campaign for another Fulani in the name of Atiku...

We shall wait to see how Atiku would defeat any Southern candidate in the 2023..

Same Atiku that was given the opportunity to change the epileptic situation of our power sector but instead worsen it by inviting Mikano to the country and scattered everything.

We are patiently waiting

Truth is, the only candidate that will defeat the North will surely be from SE. No such thing as Southern again. I don't believe how SW expects SE and SS to vote for them against the North, when they should be coming together to align with SE and SS to help SE win. Anything other than SE from Southern is a sell out and won't fly. How do SW expect SE to support them when the whole south should come together and deliver power to SE

Asgard73:


K.
Next.

Wen something realistic don pass ur beer parlor surface politics of (NORTH will Vote NORTH) mantra with nothing else to say

Kpele. U go soon dey alright.

danilmo:


Wen something realistic don pass ur beer parlor surface politics of (NORTH will Vote NORTH) mantra with nothing else to say

Kpele. U go soon dey alright.

K
Next

Asgard73:


Oga you’re dreaming...

Power will return North ... will really want to argue with you... but you’ve not been outside southwest or anywhere north

You can come from heaven .. no be my business

Osibanjo is not selling in the north... what has he done for Northern Christians in his tenure .. talk more of Northern Muslims

East and south ... won’t vote osibanjo for anything..

Na only yorub they shout southern President... no other southern region is buying the idea..

So which Yoruba candidate is sellable in the south east north. .. maybe southwest?

Anything other than SE unseats the Southern Accord. If the whole South won't come all out for SE, let the North take back power. Enough of the SW shenanigans, they're the reason North keeps taking power. SE or the north takes back power, that's the stand of the igbos.

UcLloyd:


Truth is, the only candidate that will defeat the North will surely be from SE. No such thing as Southern again. I don't believe how SW expects SE and SS to vote for them against the North, when they should be coming together to align with SE and SS to help SE win. Anything other than SE from Southern is a sell out and won't fly. How do SW expect SE to support them when the whole south should come together and deliver power to SE

This is what North expected from south.. to deliver.
But when southwest started screaming President and agreement .. who will support them..
Yoruba Dey count on southern unity like say other southerners are mumu..

And they count on Islamic North .. while shouting power returns south

What’s the political difference between power returning to yoruba and power returning to North?

Them no Dey reason especially this ones on nairaland
They will start telling your u Gej won north
Abiola won north

Forgetting the dynamics are not same..

... and that North have never ever handed Yoruba power .

We saw Awolowo in 79’83’
We saw Abiola in 92’ 89’

Kids will come online to make noise

UcLloyd:


Anything other than SE unseats the Southern Accord. If the whole South won't come all out for SE, let the North take back power. Enough of the SW shenanigans, they're the reason North keeps taking power. SE or the north takes back power, that's the stand of the igbos.

They want to have their cake and eat it.

2023 go shock Yoruba... they will quietly return to opposing and start singing regionalism...

ityP:



You be northerner. So I no surprise

I’m an igboman based in the north... and I understand their politics.

Not noise makers .. and will hardly discuss their stan .. but will support all noise only to push what’s on agenda .. last last.

UcLloyd:


Truth is, the only candidate that will defeat the North will surely be from SE. No such thing as Southern again. I don't believe how SW expects SE and SS to vote for them against the North, when they should be coming together to align with SE and SS to help SE win. Anything other than SE from Southern is a sell out and won't fly. How do SW expect SE to support them when the whole south should come together and deliver power to SE

Talk about your region SE and leave SS out of it..

The same GEJ you guys are still wailing about supported Lyon Apc candidate in the last Bayelsa Guber election, same GEJ has been seen severally with Buhari and Obasanjo,infact both GEJ and Madam peace attented Former Gov of Ogun State, Gbenga Daniel's daughter/son marriage, that's only if you know what that means in politics..

The GEJ that you guys might have used as an excuse for SS not supporting SW ambition have moved on from the 2015 GEJ election defeat cos they also remember that SW also supported this same GEJ in 2011.

DubaiLandLord1:
Nah so Una talk say GMB no fit win GEJ and also said he will lose against Atiku. If GEJ a southern candidate can defeat GMB, it should let you know anything is possible in Nigeria politics. But well. But to make you sleep well at night, make I free you coward

GEJ won because he had an overwhelming support from the entire south. Can a Tinubu gather such support from the south?

Wike dey fear Matawalle?

No be form PDP he decamp?
He technically avoided mentioning his name.

Beress:

GEJ won because he had an overwhelming support from the entire south. Can a Tinubu gather such support from the south?

Can an Atiku also get an overwhelming support from the South? We all saw how it turned out for him the last time.

I think the slot should go to South West for the sake of equity. If check the history of PDP since 1999 till date, no south westner has piloted the affairs of the party and depriving them the opportunity once again is tantamount to marginalization which will in turn result in Mass defection to APC as they did in 2015. Gov. Makinde won't like the slot to come to his zone cos he doesn't want anyone to contend with him on the party affairs. If Bode George z old for the job as suggested by some opinions, I suggest they present Prince Oyinlola. He will do better for the party and win the heart of some intending defectors...My candid opinion!

ORIENTATION101:
whatever.
This is the formation pdp used to win election when they re in power

Win south west, south south south east,north central and get 25% in core north.

This formula is not feasible again because they have lost south west and north central while their block votes in SS/SE has diminished.

If you Think Atiku that doesnt have full control of his state politics will spring a suprise out of a blue moon then you re day dreaming.

I like ur analysis bro but i want you be objective in your analysis and also understand 2023 is i different ball game.
Let's assume Atiku (PDP) and Asiwaju (APC) are the presidential candidates for the two major political parties, going by the results of last election, my analysis are as follows:

NORTH WEST: I'm very sure Asiwaju won't garner as much as the votes Buhari got there (the shehu yar'adua/Atiku PDM structure is a factor that may play out there), Atiku got almost 30% of votes there at the last election and he may likely get more there this time around. Asiwaju has higher chances in kano, katsina, jigawa, but a 50-50 chances in states like kaduna, kebbi, zamfara, and may likely lose in sokoto where the caliphate lies.

NORTH EAST:
The North east is where Atiku comes from, he got almost 30% of votes there at the last election and I'm sure he'll get at least more votes coming from there this time around. Asiwaju strongholds here are borno, yobe, 50-50 chances in gombe, bauchi, may likely lose Adamawa and Taraba.

NORTH CENTRAL:
Atiku got almost 45% of votes here at the last election.
Asiwaju may likely win niger and kogi, 50-50 chance in benue, nasarawa but may like lose fct, plateau, kwara.

SOUTH WEST:
Atiku got almost more than 40% here. This is asiwaju's stronghold but he may likely lose in states like oyo, ekiti and osun (the outcome of the upcoming ekiti and osun election are determinants in this).

SOUTH EAST:
Atiku has over 75% here. Asiwaju may likely not win a state here but I'm sure he'll get at least 30% of votes coming from here.

SOUTH SOUTH:
Atiku has over 65% of votes here. Asiwaju may like not get more than 30% of votes coming from here too.


With all these analysis stated above I'm sure 2023 Election will be keenly contested by these two candidates if the they should scale through the primaries but I'm very sure that factors of determinants that may likely play out are; choice and background of their running mates, their Ethnicity and also the choice of the sultan because they are both muslims.

It's just my opinion bro

Where is Saraki in this play