OgogoroFreak:
This us not by pharoah o. Who ever enter that sit, Naira will continue to go down.

Pharoah and the Egyptians/ subjects are both culpable in bringing down the economy, but Pharoah has a greater responsibility in appointing " A JOSEPH" who is skilled in economic matters to help him manage the 7 years of Famine and 7 years of abundance of the Nigerian economy (COVID & POST COVID MELT DOWN , GLOBAL OIL CHALLENGES, INFLATION, and every aspect of the local National economy to boost productivity etc )

The ancient Pharoah did it, appointed "A JOSEPH"who was able to help him stir and turn around the Egyptian economy then but the current Pharoah you have in Nigeria is confused and is busy chasing kulikuli, guguru and ekpa economic policies

AngelicBeing:
Pharoah and the Egyptians/ subjects are both culpable in bringing down the economy, but Pharoah has a greater responsibility in appointing " A JOSEPH" who is skilled in economic matters to help him manage the 7 years of Famine and 7 years of abundance of the Nigerian economy (COVID & POST COVID MELT DOWN , GLOBAL OIL CHALLENGES, INFLATION, and every aspect of the local National economy to boost productivity etc )

The ancient Pharoah did it, appointed "A JOSEPH"who was able to help him stir and turn around the Egyptian economy then but the current Pharoah you have in Nigeria is confused and is busy chasing kulikuli, guguru and ekpa economic policies

Very true that the head will carry more of the blame. It has always been so and will not end now. Especially when the current dispensation promised that they have a solution to all Nigeria's problem already and will tackle them immediately if elected before they assumed duty.

That said, we as citizens have all always been part of the problem. Nasco corn Flakes has been producing here for a while instead of demanding that the company improve on where we found it lacking if there is, we started importing the more 'Crispy' expensive alternative Kellogg's Corn Flakes produced elsewhere. We were eating our local rice mostly every Sundays, we de-stone it manually and prepare it. If only we had improved on that. No we didn't, Instead we went for Uncle Ben's and other Thailand brands.

Same goes to all the areas we were holding our own and could have at least compete favourably if we had worked on. Some countries in same position as we were in about thirty years ago have stepped up and are doing better.. Countries like Bangladesh value products they made more than that of US and UK's. Made in Bangladesh products are more expensive than the imported ones in Bangladesh yet the citizens prefer theirs. In our own case the situation is the exact opposite.

The leadership do not have the will to turn thing around and even if they had, the saboteur and grumblers we have as citizens would not have allow it to work except the leader goes dictatorial and that in itself can not go hand in hand with democracy.

freeman67:



Very true that the head will carry more of the blame. It has always been so and will not end now. Especially when the current dispensation promised that they have a solution to all Nigeria's problem already and will tackle them immediately if elected before they assumed duty.

That said, we as citizens have all always been part of the problem. Nasco corn Flakes has been producing here for a while instead of demanding that the company improve on where we found it lacking if there is, we started importing the more 'Crispy' expensive alternative Kellogg's Corn Flakes produced elsewhere. We were eating our local rice mostly every Sundays, we de-stone it manually and prepare it. If only we had improved on that. No we didn't, Instead we went for Uncle Ben's and other Thailand brands.

Same goes to all the areas we were holding our own and could have at least compete favourably if we had worked on. Some countries in same position as we were in about thirty years ago have stepped up and are doing better.. Countries like Bangladesh value products they made more than that of US and UK's. Made in Bangladesh products are more expensive than the imported ones in Bangladesh yet the citizens prefer theirs. In our own case the situation is the exact opposite.

The leadership do not have the will to turn thing around and even if they had, the saboteur and grumblers we have as citizens would not have allow it to work except the leader goes dictatorial and that in itself can not go hand in hand with democracy.

Oga don't mind them, maybe this Joseph is either him or his family members that will come and perform wonders.When the major problem as you rightly stated is with our love for imported goods and lack of patriotism.He should tell me the magic the last Joseph in the last administration did.Infact she is part of the problem when she turned blind eyes when somethings whr going wrong.I hate this government but our economic challenges is not thr sole fault.It has been expanding from previous government.The only way out now is to use dictatorship policies and leave democracy for now.It was used in China and they turned out better.I will equally feel the heat but at the long run our senses will reset and the country will be better

This latest devaluation (though not the worst in recent memory) has come with alot of media frenzy... This solidifies my belief that somewhere between 550 and 700 lies the tipping point- the point of no return. It's at this point the average Nigerian will look to have their savings in forex and usually where things spiral out of control..

Right now, the arbitrage between the official and market rate is about 35%. Anyone who CBN gives forex can effectively resell it at 35% interest. In a country like Nigeria, that could be a bottomless pit of corruption. Sooner or later the CBN will be forced to make a big move...

Lemme speculate on possible things they might do and attendant effects...

1. Start funding BDCs- with the back and forth on this, this route would show they've run out of ideas.... Already, it's clear how it ends.... Except they give excess forex to fulfill demand, all they'd do is enrichen BDC operatves.

2. Go for domiciliary accounts- With this, the CBN converts all forex there to naira at their rate... In most cases, this is usually followed by a devaluation. This option is now looking like a matter of 'when' not 'if'. With the amount of popularity CBN has lost with the public, this is something, the average Nigerian might favour.. There is a hoard of dollars sitting there and the question would be what they're using it for? I believe the last memo leaked was genuine..
So far, Nigeria seems to be following the case of Lebanon. In Lebanon, after the ban on dom accounts, banks connived with some rich folks to ship out their forex... Already, it seems rich folks here have got the signal and are moving stuff already. The downside is that markets react badly whenever this is done.


3. Devalue the naira further- Again as we've seen, this would just be pushing the can down the road. If the CBN devalues without increasing forex supply, the market rate usually goes up too- more like a chicken and egg.

4. End the dollar subsidy- This is something I'd favour moreso if it's followed by a complete float of the currency. Cheaper forex for folks going abroad for mefical care or for schooling does not offer any benefit to the economy. Everyone should access forex at the same rate. Let the nation determine whats important and not. CBN can intervene via other means


5. Float the naira- This to me is the most sustainable option long-term. Here rate is typically dependent on market forces. Suspending dom accounts+ dollar subsidy + a float could bring long lasting stability we want..

6. Wait for the enaira and see the effect- This would seem like a gamble on something new. Moreso even if its eventually successful, it'd need lots of time to gain traction...that time we do not have.

And finally... Sit and do nothing..... Sometimes, this is the best option...

Eitherway, the next few weeks look like they're going to be interesting

Still on devaluation....

When you're in the center of everything, it can be difficult to see how it just makes citizens poorer... Focusing on one metric makes it clear

Using cars for example... 8- 10 years ago, a young graduate (without other commitments) earning 150k could save over 12- 18months and buy a 2004 toks vehicle.... As of then, a 2004 vehicle was 8-12 years old....

Over the last decade, most jobs I know that payed such amount are still at same rate or marginally increased to between 180 - 200k.


Right now, same graduate earning 180k would need at least 2 years years to save and buy same 2004 vehicle which is now 18years old. Funny enough, that car may be more expensive now than it was 8 years back.
That same vehicle has also become much more cheaper right in the West and not unusual for them to be scrapped out when they have issues. As they'd consider the cost of repair more than the cost of the vehicle.

This is worrying cos cars should depreciate not appreciate. If this trend continues, vehicles on our roads will get older without most noticing... similar to what we see in poorer African nations...

As we know, purchasing power is a marker of a vibrant economy and middle class...Similar scenario can be seen when we zoom into specific items....


This just reminds me of the state of the common man before 1999.... I'm not a fan of OBJ... But his regime did loads to improve the buying power of the genral populace. This was largely due to macroeconomic measures put in....

freeman67:


That said, we as citizens have all always been part of the problem. Nasco corn Flakes has been producing here for a while instead of demanding that the company improve on where we found it lacking if there is, we started importing the more 'Crispy' expensive alternative Kellogg's Corn Flakes produced elsewhere. We were eating our local rice mostly every Sundays, we de-stone it manually and prepare it. If only we had improved on that. No we didn't, Instead we went for Uncle Ben's and other Thailand brands.

While I agree that citizens do have a part to play, my issue with your submission is that it was same story that was sold to us in the early days of this forex crises. Hence, while citizens were blaming those eating rice for our forex issues, government officials ate fat on access cheap forex.

Talking about force... It's interesting that with our history, we believe that force develops any economy. If it did, Nigeria and other African nations would be the most developed...
Economies develop on the basis of sound macroeconomic policies. All force can do is get people in line and hasten a process. If you apply force to the wrong policies, you have a Zimbabwe..
Let me ask, throughout the military regime when max force was used, what economic benefit did it achieve?
Even in this regime, we've forcefully locked our borders because of rice... Again it did not achieve anything

There is no nation in the 20th century who have been developed by virtue of force. The last nations who developed that way were the colonial nations who plundered resources of other nations.

Look at UAE, China, Malaysia and even India of late- their development is all on the basis of sound policy.

Like I've said multiple times, I cannot imagine any of those nations giving cheaper forex to their citizens going for holidays on other nations or for pilgrimage...

We have had a forex crises for years... And while we blame those eating rice and wearing okrika clothes, have we ever asked how much cheap forex the CBN spends yearly on those going for medical treatment abroad... How much do they spend on those going for pilgrimage.... How much do they give to those traveling abroad for whatever reason.... If we have those figures, let us compare it to forwx used on rice then we see wher the problem lies.... How would the forex crises end when the privileged few feed fat at the expense of the poor majority..

The dollar wey I buy in Jan 2020 has gained 50 percent in value while the Naira wey I put for bonds has lost 50 percent (we could say make we add 10% annual yield and $5 percent reinvestment interests but still 35% loss in value).

Anyone who has held Naira since Jan 2020 up till date has lost 50 percent of its real value.
Jan 2020 - $1 bought at N370
Sept 2021 - $1 bought at N550.

.

China would wish they have this our kind of exchange rate.

PresidentBuhari:
The dollar wey I buy in Jan 2020 has gained 50 percent in value while the Naira wey I put for bonds has lost 50 percent (we could say make we add 10% annual yield and $5 percent reinvestment interests but still 35% loss in value).

Anyone who has held Naira since Jan 2020 up till date has lost 50 percent of its real value.
Jan 2020 - $1 bought at N370
Sept 2021 - $1 bought at N550.

Tell me how a biz who buys in naira and sell his goods in naira have lost 50 percent

Any business whose cash reserve is denominated in Naira from 2020 to-date that didn't hedge against currency devaluation has lost the real value of the Naira, the purchasing power of Naira in 2020 is no longer the same purchasing power in September 2021, that's how.

Biafran4life:
Tell me how a biz who buys in naira and sell his goods in naira have lost 50 percent

ojesymsym:
China would wish they have this our kind of exchange rate.

They ve got a production mentality, Africans generally have a rentage mentality

jedisco:


While I agree that citizens do have a part to play, my issue with your submission is that it was same story that was sold to us in the early days of this forex crises. Hence, while citizens were blaming those eating rice for our forex issues, government officials ate fat on access cheap forex.

Talking about force... It's interesting that with our history, we believe that force develops any economy. If it did, Nigeria and other African nations would be the most developed...
Economies develop on the basis of sound macroeconomic policies. All force can do is get people in line and hasten a process. If you apply force to the wrong policies, you have a Zimbabwe..
Let me ask, throughout the military regime when max force was used, what economic benefit did it achieve?
Even in this regime, we've forcefully locked our borders because of rice... Again it did not achieve anything

There is no nation in the 20th century who have been developed by virtue of force. The last nations who developed that way were the colonial nations who plundered resources of other nations.

Look at UAE, China, Malaysia and even India of late- their development is all on the basis of sound policy.

Like I've said multiple times, I cannot imagine any of those nations giving cheaper forex to their citizens going for holidays on other nations or for pilgrimage...

We have had a forex crises for years... And while we blame those eating rice and wearing okrika clothes, have we ever asked how much cheap forex the CBN spends yearly on those going for medical treatment abroad... How much do they spend on those going for pilgrimage.... How much do they give to those traveling abroad for whatever reason.... If we have those figures, let us compare it to forwx used on rice then we see wher the problem lies.... How would the forex crises end when the privileged few feed fat at the expense of the poor majority..

Very well said.

Besides I wonder why people would think CBN will seize FOREX in dorm accounts in a country like Nigeria. Yes someone like Buhari can muster the will to do it being reckless but it would not save the Naira.
A policy like that can shoot up the exchange rate to over 1000 overnight. I want to be wrong but I don’t see that ever happening.
CBN will even end dollar subsidy before thinking about that line.

Biafran4life:
Tell me how a biz who buys in naira and sell his goods in naira have lost 50 percent

The question should also include what Goods is the business person buying and selling phone accessories in naira,the capital that would have been enough to buy 3 goods would now only buy 2,same goes for clothes, spare parts, FMCG goods etc

Good evening Gurus in the house. Is there any way I can buy 3 million worth of FGN Bond from primary market.?

Another FGN Bond is just out today.

Please help.

Biafran4life:
Tell me how a biz who buys in naira and sell his goods in naira have lost 50 percent

Exactly, weh na now boys cash out sef by selling old stock at very high new prices.
I've always told them say fixed income no be business,especially in Nigeria.
I advised people here I think last year to hoard commodity to hedge against inflation,they called me names.
Now see,purchasing power have been bastardixed already.

PresidentBuhari:
Any business whose cash reserve is denominated in Naira from 2020 to-date that didn't hedge against currency devaluation has lost the real value of the Naira, the purchasing power of Naira in 2020 is no longer the same purchasing power in September 2021, that's how.

Oga, the business don't need to hedge any hedge,
All he need to do is to have stock,
Only foolish business people who like to keep cash will lose purchasing power.
All the serious businessmen and women actually gained from this whole inflation issue.
All they need to do is to change prices of their old goods to catch up with inflation.

Are united capital this inefficient?

Opened a MF account online since last week, but they have still not sent my activation mail to enable funding. And yet they said it will take just about 24hrs to open.

I called the CC and wrote mails. Each time they promise they will do it shortly, but up till now, nothing.

So disappointed ☹️

alezzy13:
Are united capital this inefficient?

Opened a MF account online since last week, but they have still not sent my activation mail to enable funding. And yet they said it will take just about 24hrs to open.

I called the CC and wrote mails. Each time they promise they will do it shortly, but up till now, nothing.

So disappointed ☹️

They attend to high networth individual with immediate alacrity

Someone who sells perishable goods like frozen foods or vegetables cannot hoard, six months ago I wanted to sell the $10k I bought at N370/$ to the BM at N430/$, on a second thought I decided to leave it longer, now I can sell at N550/$, even if dollar hits N1000/$, I still will not sell because rather I will withdraw the funds and send it offshore, what is happening now is the begining of what is come.

At some point $10k will be worth N10 million

SeaTrade:
Oga, the business don't need to hedge any hedge,
All he need to do is to have stock,
Only foolish business people who like to keep cash will lose purchasing power.
All the serious businessmen and women actually gained from this whole inflation issue.
All they need to do is to change prices of their old goods to catch up with inflation.

PresidentBuhari:
Any business whose cash reserve is denominated in Naira from 2020 to-date that didn't hedge against currency devaluation has lost the real value of the Naira, the purchasing power of Naira in 2020 is no longer the same purchasing power in September 2021, that's how.

what cash reserve for a trader

donguutti:


The question should also include what Goods is the business person buying and selling phone accessories in naira,the capital that would have been enough to buy 3 goods would now only buy 2,same goes for clothes, spare parts, FMCG goods etc

Did you sell below you cost price for you to now buy below your initial quantity.If so you need to improve your communication gap btw you and your supplies

SeaTrade:
Oga, the business don't need to hedge any hedge,
All he need to do is to have stock,
Only foolish business people who like to keep cash will lose purchasing power.
All the serious businessmen and women actually gained from this whole inflation issue.
All they need to do is to change prices of their old goods to catch up with inflation.

Sense no go leave you

PresidentBuhari:
The dollar wey I buy in Jan 2020 has gained 50 percent in value while the Naira wey I put for bonds has lost 50 percent (we could say make we add 10% annual yield and $5 percent reinvestment interests but still 35% loss in value).

Anyone who has held Naira since Jan 2020 up till date has lost 50 percent of its real value.
Jan 2020 - $1 bought at N370
Sept 2021 - $1 bought at N550.

Some of these facts have been there but are only becoming more obvious now... Folks who invested in TBs and bonds over the past few years have infact lost value.

Even when CBN was offering treasury bills at over 12% and everyone was happy, people's investment were losing value in real terms without them knowing....

Nobody asked why the TB rate of their country remained that high... The currency was losing value at a higher rate.
The TB and bond rate in nations with a strong currency hardly exceeds 3%

chigo4u:
Besides I wonder why people would think CBN will seize FOREX in dorm accounts in a country like Nigeria. Yes someone like Buhari can muster the will to do it being reckless but it would not save the Naira.
A policy like that can shoot up the exchange rate to over 1000 overnight. I want to be wrong but I don’t see that ever happening.
CBN will even end dollar subsidy before thinking about that line.

In investing, sometimes it's good to take away emotional opinions and look at facts for what they are...

CBN has banned everything they could ban yet the official rate is around 410 and the market rate 550. Likely, they'd be forced to act soon enough... If they go ahead and devalue the official rate without touching something else, the market rate will tick up higher making more people to lose faith in the currency and head for dom accounts. That will in essence be rewarding those with forex accounts.
There is a reason why most countries who ran into forex issues they couldn't control ended up targeting dom accounts. We know the resulting consequence will be catastrophic but truth be said, they're running out of options...

I wouldn't be surprised if the leaked memo was real and the effect of one or two powerful people leaked it. This gap may be to allow those powerful people make alternate arrangements.

I have no dom account...but one has to be realistic. If you have one, then there's a non-negligible chance you'd wake up soon and hear your usd has been 'forcefully' converted to naira at a rate of 410 per usd...

Trust me, majority of Nigerians will praise such a move.... All CBN has to say is that dom accounts are used by corrupt folks and it was worsening the forex issue.

2 easy ways to stabilize naira
1)When dorm account owners want to withdraw, let them sell to bank at Cbn rate. This will eliminate the middle men which are even worse than licensed BDCs. Banks should then be made to increase card limit to 1000 dollars per month.
2)Treasury bill rate should be maintained at around 10 percent

jedisco:


In investing, sometimes it's good to take away emotional opinions and look at facts for what they are...

CBN has banned everything they could ban yet the official rate is around 410 and the market rate 550. Likely, they'd be forced to act soon enough... If they go ahead and devalue the official rate without touching something else, the market rate will tick up higher making more people to lose faith in the currency and head for dom accounts. That will in essence be rewarding those with forex accounts.
There is a reason why most countries who ran into forex issues they couldn't control ended up targeting dom accounts. We know the resulting consequence will be catastrophic but truth be said, they're running out of options...

I wouldn't be surprised if the leaked memo was real and the effect of one or two powerful people leaked it. This gap may be to allow those powerful people make alternate arrangements.

I have no dom account...but one has to be realistic. If you have one, then there's a non-negligible chance you'd wake up soon and hear your usd has been 'forcefully' converted to naira at a rate of 410 per usd...

Trust me, majority of Nigerians will praise such a move.... All CBN has to say is that dom accounts are used by corrupt folks and it was worsening the forex issue.

So after converting dorm accounts to naira will it end the FX crises? What will CBN convert next?
The reason for these speculations is because it happened In Argentina and Lebanon but people forget it even worsened the financial crises in those countries. So CBN doing that will simply mean they want to further destroy the naira and not to help it, besides I don’t think the NASS will allow it.
I think it will be easier for the CBN governor to resign than for him to make that move. Anything is possible though, let’s watch as it plays out

shalomblue:
2 easy ways to stabilize naira
[/b]1)When dorm account owners want to withdraw, let them sell to bank at Cbn rate. This will eliminate the middle men which are even worse than licensed BDCs. Banks should then be made to increase card limit to 1000 dollars per month.[b]
2)Treasury bill rate should be maintained at around 10 percent

People will travel out with others ATM. Withdraw 1k dolLars and come back to Nigeria to recycle in black market.

alezzy13:
Are united capital this inefficient?

Opened a MF account online since last week, but they have still not sent my activation mail to enable funding. And yet they said it will take just about 24hrs to open.

I called the CC and wrote mails. Each time they promise they will do it shortly, but up till now, nothing.

So disappointed ☹️

The Nigerian thing affects all of them... Once in a while they sleep off on duty.

Just add them on WhatsApp with the number below or mail them about it.


+234 816 828 2396

Good evening Gurus in the house. Is there any way I can buy 3 million worth of FGN Bond from primary market.?

Another FGN Bond is just out today.

Please help.

Incase anyone is interested, I got the info below yesterday.

Dear Valued Investor,

Coronation Merchant Bank Limited (“Coronation MB”) is pleased to notify you of the opening of the Series II and III Commercial Paper Issuances by Valency Agro Nigeria Limited (“Valency Agro” or the “Company”) under its ₦20 billion Commercial Paper Programme. The Issuance will be across 180 and 270 day tenors for a target amount of up to N7.5 billion which commences on Tuesday, September 7, 2021 and is scheduled to close on Friday, September 17, 2021.

Valency Agro Nigeria Limited is a commodity trading company that trades in a diversified portfolio of products that are classified as Agro & Consumer Goods, Sulphur & Fertilizers, Steel & Scrap, and other commodities. The Company was established as a commodity trading company in 2007 with headquarters in Singapore and has become a prominent integrated supply chain manager across Africa and Asia. Through an already established extensive global reach, the company has developed excellent sourcing networks directly with farm gate suppliers and manufacturing processors while also nurturing strong local and international relationships worldwide. Valency has also expanded its presence across the value chain with operations in logistics, warehousing and through its own processing facilities.

Valency has a deep manufacturing and processing presence and takes pride in the ownership of the largest cashew processing plant in Ogun State, Nigeria. The Issuer has raw cashew procurement and drying centres in Lagos, Ibafo, Ogbomosho, Kano, Anyigba and Ankpa. It also has sesame cleaning facilities in Kano, Lagos and the Middle Belt, as well as cocoa drying machines in its centre at Ogun state. Over the years, Valency has been notable for:

Strong and Well Recognized Brand – Valency has created a strong brand image and its products are distributed in various markets, both domestic and internationally;
Sustained Positive Financial Trajectory – The Company has continued to thrive with consistent earnings growth despite macroeconomic headwinds and challenges in the domestic economy. The Company has been a consistent top 10 non-oil exporter out of Nigeria;
Experienced Management Team – The Company is led by a team of very passionate professionals with extensive knowledge and experience in the field of commodity trading; and
Robust Stakeholder Framework - Valency follows a sustainable business model which views its stakeholders (for example, farmers and communities within which it operates) as partners and provides them with initiatives such as health benefits, education support and trainings.
Valency hereby announces the launch of its 182-day Series 2 and 270-day Series 3 Commercial Paper Issuances and plan to utilize proceeds of the CP issuance to fund its short-term working capital requirements. The summary of the offer is presented below:

Issuer

Valency Agro Nigeria Limited

Size

Up to ₦7.5 billion

Tenor

180 and 270 days

Yield

Series II: 180 days - 13.7500%

Series III: 270 days - 15.2500%

Discount Rate

Series II: 180 days - 12.8769%

Series III: 270 days - 13.7041%

Issuer Rating

BBB+ (DataPro)

Subscription

Minimum of ₦5 million and multiples of ₦1,000 thereafter

Tax Considerations

Free and clear of withholding taxes

Offer Open

Tuesday, 7 September 2021

Offer Close Date

Friday, 17 September 2021

Circulate the Allocation Notice to investors

Friday, 17 September 2021

Investors fund their commitments

Monday, 20 September 2021

Use of proceeds

Short-term working capital requirements



In view of the above, we hereby invite you to invest in the commercial papers and kindly request that you forward your executed Investment Commitment Form via return email (with hard copies forwarded to our offices) on or before the close of business on Friday, September 17, 2021.

For more information on the issuance, please refer to the following documents below:

Programme Memorandum
Series II & III Pricing Supplement
Rating Report by DataPro Limited
Investment Commitment Form


For further enquiries, kindly call or email the contact:

Dayo Lawal
Investment Banking
08107711615
alawal@coronationmb.com