₦airaland Forum

ComrWanle02:
The only viable point in your write up is running mate point. Others are less important.

Exactly my thoughts..

Besides, El-Rufai played the Muslim-Muslim ticket and it worked for him

Cc:. NaijaCowFarm

NaijaCowFarm:
Leadership is not a popularity contest - Adams Oshomole

It is not arguable that Tinubu has a very large political structure. It is also not arguable that Tinubu can defeat Osinbajo in an Open Ballot system, but APC primaries are not going to be an open ballot system where people queue behind their candidates, rather it is going to be an Open-Secret Ballot system. In an open-ballot system, once I vote against you, you know, so I will be reluctant to vote another after assuring you or collecting your money. However, in an Open-Secret ballot, I can assure you that I will vote for you, collect your money yet vote my "heart".

Now on the day of the APC primaries, these are the facts that would be very clear:

Tinubu is too old to govern effectively: With the hindsight of Buhari's challenges, APC would rather go for a younger and much healthier candidate than an old and sick Tinubu. This is a clear advantage that Osinbajo would have. Most of the delegates would be easily swayed towards Osinbajo right inside the ballot cage, where they would thumb-print their ballot, fold it and come out openly to cast it in the ballot box. Mark you, it is going to be the same ballot box for all candidates, so you cannot know who was voted until the ballots are sorted and counted.

Tinubu's bad faith towards Ambode: The bad deed that Tinubu did to Ambode is still fresh in the minds of the governors, both single-term and second-term governors. it is on record that the governors overwhelmingly rejected the direct primaries simply because Tinubu and his men in NASS arranged to have them treated like Ambode. moreso, it was reported that the APC governor's forum led by Atiku Bagudu (who is still in charge by the way), went to Tinubu's residence in Abuja to beg and prostrate to the Jagaban to allow Ambode to complete his tenure, but baba shuns them. Now, he is running after the same Bagudu, even going to the Kebbi Lodge to beg then. They are sure to require their pound of flesh on behalf of Ambode.

Religious sentiments: Since 2015 Nigeria has been governed by a Muslim, Muhammadu Buhari. If another Muslim from the South takes over from Buhari in 2023, the Muslims would have had another 8 years, making a total of 16. Now when power returns to the North, obviously another Muslim would take over for another 8 years. In total, the Muslims would be president from 2015 - to 2039, a whopping 24 uninterrupted years. That is NOT FEASIBLE. Hence, rational as the delegates are, they would avoid such a trap that would easily hand power back to the PDP. The delegates would rather vote for Osinbajo than Tinubu.

Running mate wahahala: We all recall the challenges that Buhari faced in choosing a running mate in 2015. Buhari was under pressure to avoid the Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2015, even with over 10 million Northern votes in the kitty. Tells that with a Tinubu's candidacy, it would be tougher for APC. Firstly, Tinubu does not have the cult following that Buhari commanded in 2015. Secondly, the North would never accept a Northern Christian VP, this is an unwritten law. Adopting such would mean FAILURE in the North. Hence the only option that Tinubu would have is a Muslim-Muslim ticket, which would FAIL woefully at elections. Even APC NEC would advise against such a move. The obvious alternative would be Osinbajo.

Unaccounted Baggages: Accountability is the acceptance of responsibility for one's own actions. It implies a willingness to be transparent, allowing others to observe and evaluate one's performance. Integrity is the quality of being honest and having strong moral principles; moral uprightness. Measured on these two words, Osinbajo would beat Tinubu by a clear distance. Firstly, Tinubu has held Lagos to a stranglehold for the past 23 years. He has made sure that his son controls all the key revenue-generating sectors of the state, the numerous toll gates, etc. His daughter controls all the markets in Lagos, his son-in-law is in NASS, and his wife is a senator for life, he receives 10% tithes from Lagos State. These are baggages that Nigeria's state cannot accommodate. Even now, he has closed NURTW in Lagos and handed it over to his cronies. Is this the type of person that Nigeria wants to give power over the nation and national treasury and power?
Responsible delegates would avoid such a person because, when push goes to shove, Nigerians would be better off without such baggages. Hence the Osinbajo appeal would suffice.

Academic and foundational credence: Tinubu's state of origin, early education, age, and birth are all mysteries. Noone knows where he is from. Noone knows his father, no one knows where he got his first school leaving certificate nor his high school certificate nor diploma. All we hear is that he graduated from some University in the USA. There are those that say that his daughter is 61 years old while Tinubu is claiming 70 years old. That is a mystery too many to be overlooked. Hence Osinbajo would come as a sterling candidate to sell rather than a Tunubu with these baggages of unexplained mysteries.

Conclusion: Osinbajo would trounce Tinubu in APC primaries. However, APC may not form the next government, no matter who they field!

PDP can never win presidential election. They are the weakest opposition party I've ever seen

Anieke77:
Osinbanjo doesn't have the balls(manpower)

Tell that to wall. Go and ask Buhari camp about Osinbajo

jyz200:
Interesting
But Vp Bleep up for contesting against Jagaban

So between VP and Tinubu who is the master? Vice President and ceremonial party leader.
Tinubu is the person that tried to outshine the Master to have ascribed onto himself the same title reserved only for the president (Party Leader) and calls himself a Kingmaker.....and you think Buhari and Co doesn't know how to use power. Oga it's easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for Tinubu to become Nigeria president.

Spherical77:
PDP can never win presidential election. They are the weakest opposition party I've ever seen

Wike is the problem of PDP

okefranci:
Tinubu has nailed himself already and he won't get the ticket not alone of winning the primaries

Explain how he nailed himself.

TheRareGem1:
APC should just get it right and field PYO come 2023 if the party stilll want to remain in power beyond 2023

Simple Mathematics

Anieke77:
Osinbanjo doesn't have the balls(manpower)

Same thing you guys said before he declared his intention

jyz200:
Interesting
But Vp Bleep up for contesting against Jagaban

I think you're quoting this out of context.
Here, Osinbajo never outshined the master. That's the reason he was loyal to Buhari up till this moment.
I'm sure if he had done anything disloyal to Tinubu, he won't grudgingly agree to his nomination as VP.

At this stage, coming out to declare is not an issue. There was no written agreement that he should never contest for presidency.

Bounceboune7:
A consensus can emerge for chairman n not presidency.

All u wrote up there na rubbish

Prove that it's all rubbish. Someone made a point,u can only use another point to counter him. You just deh shout rubbish without making any comment that means you are the rubbish

NaijaCowFarm:
Leadership is not a popularity contest - Adams Oshomole

It is not arguable that Tinubu has a very large political structure. It is also not arguable that Tinubu can defeat Osinbajo in an Open Ballot system, but APC primaries are not going to be an open ballot system where people queue behind their candidates, rather it is going to be an Open-Secret Ballot system. In an open-ballot system, once I vote against you, you know, so I will be reluctant to vote another after assuring you or collecting your money. However, in an Open-Secret ballot, I can assure you that I will vote for you, collect your money yet vote my "heart".

Now on the day of the APC primaries, these are the facts that would be very clear:

Tinubu is too old to govern effectively: With the hindsight of Buhari's challenges, APC would rather go for a younger and much healthier candidate than an old and sick Tinubu. This is a clear advantage that Osinbajo would have. Most of the delegates would be easily swayed towards Osinbajo right inside the ballot cage, where they would thumb-print their ballot, fold it and come out openly to cast it in the ballot box. Mark you, it is going to be the same ballot box for all candidates, so you cannot know who was voted until the ballots are sorted and counted.

Tinubu's bad faith towards Ambode: The bad deed that Tinubu did to Ambode is still fresh in the minds of the governors, both single-term and second-term governors. it is on record that the governors overwhelmingly rejected the direct primaries simply because Tinubu and his men in NASS arranged to have them treated like Ambode. moreso, it was reported that the APC governor's forum led by Atiku Bagudu (who is still in charge by the way), went to Tinubu's residence in Abuja to beg and prostrate to the Jagaban to allow Ambode to complete his tenure, but baba shuns them. Now, he is running after the same Bagudu, even going to the Kebbi Lodge to beg then. They are sure to require their pound of flesh on behalf of Ambode.

Religious sentiments: Since 2015 Nigeria has been governed by a Muslim, Muhammadu Buhari. If another Muslim from the South takes over from Buhari in 2023, the Muslims would have had another 8 years, making a total of 16. Now when power returns to the North, obviously another Muslim would take over for another 8 years. In total, the Muslims would be president from 2015 - to 2039, a whopping 24 uninterrupted years. That is NOT FEASIBLE. Hence, rational as the delegates are, they would avoid such a trap that would easily hand power back to the PDP. The delegates would rather vote for Osinbajo than Tinubu.

Running mate wahahala: We all recall the challenges that Buhari faced in choosing a running mate in 2015. Buhari was under pressure to avoid the Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2015, even with over 10 million Northern votes in the kitty. Tells that with a Tinubu's candidacy, it would be tougher for APC. Firstly, Tinubu does not have the cult following that Buhari commanded in 2015. Secondly, the North would never accept a Northern Christian VP, this is an unwritten law. Adopting such would mean FAILURE in the North. Hence the only option that Tinubu would have is a Muslim-Muslim ticket, which would FAIL woefully at elections. Even APC NEC would advise against such a move. The obvious alternative would be Osinbajo.

Unaccounted Baggages: Accountability is the acceptance of responsibility for one's own actions. It implies a willingness to be transparent, allowing others to observe and evaluate one's performance. Integrity is the quality of being honest and having strong moral principles; moral uprightness. Measured on these two words, Osinbajo would beat Tinubu by a clear distance. Firstly, Tinubu has held Lagos to a stranglehold for the past 23 years. He has made sure that his son controls all the key revenue-generating sectors of the state, the numerous toll gates, etc. His daughter controls all the markets in Lagos, his son-in-law is in NASS, and his wife is a senator for life, he receives 10% tithes from Lagos State. These are baggages that Nigeria's state cannot accommodate. Even now, he has closed NURTW in Lagos and handed it over to his cronies. Is this the type of person that Nigeria wants to give power over the nation and national treasury and power?
Responsible delegates would avoid such a person because, when push goes to shove, Nigerians would be better off without such baggages. Hence the Osinbajo appeal would suffice.

Academic and foundational credence: Tinubu's state of origin, early education, age, and birth are all mysteries. Noone knows where he is from. Noone knows his father, no one knows where he got his first school leaving certificate nor his high school certificate nor diploma. All we hear is that he graduated from some University in the USA. There are those that say that his daughter is 61 years old while Tinubu is claiming 70 years old. That is a mystery too many to be overlooked. Hence Osinbajo would come as a sterling candidate to sell rather than a Tunubu with these baggages of unexplained mysteries.

Conclusion: Osinbajo would trounce Tinubu in APC primaries. However, APC may not form the next government, no matter who they field!

OP you got all wrong. Track record of achievements and the foundation that Tinubu has laid is too insurmountable for any competitor with Tinubu. Age is just not a major consideration in Nigeria. The youth clamouring for a young president are the ones who will not go out to vote. And age has nothing to do with performance. Experience and track record matters most. All your parameters are sentimental and do not go deep among the core voters. And those delegates can not be swayed to vote Oshinbajo because they know he is not electable especially in the norther part of Nigeria. None of them want to gamble with winning the presidency for your very light weight arguments.

Anieke77:
Osinbanjo doesn't have the balls(manpower)

Tell that to the former DSS director.

[quote author=ucheheart post=111937591]As far as APC is concerned, Yoruba votes are divided BTW tinubu and osinbajo, so nothing for both of them. Amaechi will come out tops cos he got full backing from northwest and south south and also buhari 's anointed son. Watch out.[/quote

Errant Nonsense

Or maybe you are over estimating him. He wont even win is State not to talk of Nigeria

Iyadesa:
It's seems we are underating the Likes of Ameachi here

Nigeria is a complicated nation.
All the candidate are not worthy.
Kleptomaniac leaders.
Anyone from 65years and above may likely have brain or mental disorder. Voting for old people will cause the nation a great set back.
It is better to vote a younger aspirant to lead than old aspirant that will always need medication to get fit.
9ja is still on a long thing.

oursnail:
You don't know anything. Just go and ask OBJ , senator Rasheed Ladoja and Bukola Akerele about the true age of Asiwaju Tinubu you will keep quiet. Where was you in 1992? Osinbajo is not on the list. Elephant is not small bush animal.

I still remember dis campaign poster dat time dem post few of dem on d wall of my papa house. I remember Awo's daughter wey marry d Dosunmu too campaign for d same post but na Jagaban win.

My money is on Tinubu at the primaries. The only reason, osinbajo can emerge is if Tinubu himself allow it. Only God can stop this tinubu's ambition. It's beyond what many of you know.

Bounceboune7:
A consensus can emerge for chairman n not presidency.

All u wrote up there na rubbish

And if they screen tinubu out the way they did for Edo gov? Which court can upturn that?

I biliv you dnt the personality of the man in charge of apc, perhaps you still naive to understand his antecedent during 3rd time agenda.

You guys keep consoling urself on unrealistic happenings, Nigeria president is too powerful not even Buhari who rule like emperor.

Tinubu himself know that his chance is dim, that is why he has started funding SDP underground.

wirinet:
I have been screaming it for the last 3 months. Amaechi is the dark horse in all these. Tinubu and Osibanjo will cancel out each other.

pls you guys should be on the low and allow amaechi pipe low

Osinbajo and tilumbu can keep fighting, na buhari dey decide everything and by the time the moment is set both tilumbu and osinbajo would not be given for peace to reign

Donshegxy10:
Firstly about age and background, there was no argument in 93,99 and 2003 when tinubu won elections in lagos, why now?
His he a yoruba man, a nigerian? If yes then where he came from doesnt matter.

Educational qualifications, requirement for presidency is a primary school leaving certificate, this is a man that has a university degree, his degree with an outstanding hons award was verified from chicago, this is someone that went to become an executive in over 3 international organisations, you cant dispute his qualifications.

About deputy, leave it to tinubu, he will find a well accepted northern christian, for example dogara is a christian and he rose up to become the number 4 man in nigeria in the midst of muslims.

Baggages.......
Show me 1 politician among the top aspirant without a baggage.

In 2019, when wike who was in charge of pdp wanted tambuwal and atiku brought money, why didnt they vote tambuwal instead.

Politics is about structure, aliances and money.

No nigerian politician as of today has helped, impacted and elevate people the way tinubu has done.

On ambode.......
If you are intune with lagos politics you will understand that ambode outsting was not tinubu's doing, it was the work of mandate group, who has the highest number of apc membership in lagos then, it was led by aregbesola and cardinal odunbaku.
Ambode stepped on many toes.

Does osinbajo has a structure to win apc primary, or does he has the money to spend.

Osinbajo is a featherweight politically, masses may like him but the delegate that will vote at the primaries knows only JAGABAN.

Tinubu is a strategist and a winner, i just hope some of you people will show your face after the primaries when osinbajo is humbled like ambode.

Its just a matter of weeks, let us be patient.

Enough of all this epistle and Structure ,strategy,Sargacity,ability nonsense.
In 1999 ,Ganiyu Dawodu was more influential and respected politician in Lagos and people thought that AD governorship ticket would be given to him,but was given to TInubu (underdog) as a then .
In 2007,Odili was political heavy and many people thought he would be favorites ,but OBJ favored Jonathan.
Does Jonathan have all the above mentioned qualities for him to become president ?
Same goes to Ambode,Sanwo olu and many others?Even Amaechi never contested in Rivers election and he became governor through the court .
So it’s only a newbie or JJc that would believed Tinubu would be given the ticket ahead of Osinbajo .
The heavyweight have always been the victim”.Quote me anywhere

cktheluckyman:
Both of them will lose to Amaechi

Amaechi's popularity is limited in the south-south. He is not a popular candidate in the North and far less popular in the south west.

[quote author=Donshegxy10 post=111940451]Firstly about age and background, there was no argument in 93,99 and 2003 when tinubu won elections in lagos, why now?
His he a yoruba man, a nigerian? If yes then where he came from doesnt matter.

Educational qualifications, requirement for presidency is a primary school leaving certificate, this is a man that has a university degree, his degree with an outstanding hons award was verified from chicago, this is someone that went to become an executive in over 3 international organisations, you cant dispute his qualifications.

About deputy, leave it to tinubu, he will find a well accepted northern christian, for example dogara is a christian and he rose up to become the number 4 man in nigeria in the midst of muslims.

Baggages.......
Show me 1 politician among the top aspirant without a baggage.

In 2019, when wike who was in charge of pdp wanted tambuwal and atiku brought money, why didnt they vote tambuwal instead.

Politics is about structure, aliances and money.

No nigerian politician as of today has helped, impacted and elevate people the way tinubu has done.

On ambode.......
If you are intune with lagos politics you will understand that ambode outsting was not tinubu's doing, it was the work of mandate group, who has the highest number of apc membership in lagos then, it was led by aregbesola and cardinal odunbaku.
Ambode stepped on many toes.

Does osinbajo has a structure





Dear God man!


Even Aregbesola made the statement in Osun that t he way Tinubu Ousted Ambode is the way they want to remove his cousin


Don’t be sold lame narratives

NaijaCowFarm:
Leadership is not a popularity contest - Adams Oshomole

It is not arguable that Tinubu has a very large political structure. It is also not arguable that Tinubu can defeat Osinbajo in an Open Ballot system, but APC primaries are not going to be an open ballot system where people queue behind their candidates, rather it is going to be an Open-Secret Ballot system. In an open-ballot system, once I vote against you, you know, so I will be reluctant to vote another after assuring you or collecting your money. However, in an Open-Secret ballot, I can assure you that I will vote for you, collect your money yet vote my "heart".

Now on the day of the APC primaries, these are the facts that would be very clear:

Tinubu is too old to govern effectively: With the hindsight of Buhari's challenges, APC would rather go for a younger and much healthier candidate than an old and sick Tinubu. This is a clear advantage that Osinbajo would have. Most of the delegates would be easily swayed towards Osinbajo right inside the ballot cage, where they would thumb-print their ballot, fold it and come out openly to cast it in the ballot box. Mark you, it is going to be the same ballot box for all candidates, so you cannot know who was voted until the ballots are sorted and counted.

Tinubu's bad faith towards Ambode: The bad deed that Tinubu did to Ambode is still fresh in the minds of the governors, both single-term and second-term governors. it is on record that the governors overwhelmingly rejected the direct primaries simply because Tinubu and his men in NASS arranged to have them treated like Ambode. moreso, it was reported that the APC governor's forum led by Atiku Bagudu (who is still in charge by the way), went to Tinubu's residence in Abuja to beg and prostrate to the Jagaban to allow Ambode to complete his tenure, but baba shuns them. Now, he is running after the same Bagudu, even going to the Kebbi Lodge to beg then. They are sure to require their pound of flesh on behalf of Ambode.

Religious sentiments: Since 2015 Nigeria has been governed by a Muslim, Muhammadu Buhari. If another Muslim from the South takes over from Buhari in 2023, the Muslims would have had another 8 years, making a total of 16. Now when power returns to the North, obviously another Muslim would take over for another 8 years. In total, the Muslims would be president from 2015 - to 2039, a whopping 24 uninterrupted years. That is NOT FEASIBLE. Hence, rational as the delegates are, they would avoid such a trap that would easily hand power back to the PDP. The delegates would rather vote for Osinbajo than Tinubu.

Running mate wahahala: We all recall the challenges that Buhari faced in choosing a running mate in 2015. Buhari was under pressure to avoid the Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2015, even with over 10 million Northern votes in the kitty. Tells that with a Tinubu's candidacy, it would be tougher for APC. Firstly, Tinubu does not have the cult following that Buhari commanded in 2015. Secondly, the North would never accept a Northern Christian VP, this is an unwritten law. Adopting such would mean FAILURE in the North. Hence the only option that Tinubu would have is a Muslim-Muslim ticket, which would FAIL woefully at elections. Even APC NEC would advise against such a move. The obvious alternative would be Osinbajo.

Unaccounted Baggages: Accountability is the acceptance of responsibility for one's own actions. It implies a willingness to be transparent, allowing others to observe and evaluate one's performance. Integrity is the quality of being honest and having strong moral principles; moral uprightness. Measured on these two words, Osinbajo would beat Tinubu by a clear distance. Firstly, Tinubu has held Lagos to a stranglehold for the past 23 years. He has made sure that his son controls all the key revenue-generating sectors of the state, the numerous toll gates, etc. His daughter controls all the markets in Lagos, his son-in-law is in NASS, and his wife is a senator for life, he receives 10% tithes from Lagos State. These are baggages that Nigeria's state cannot accommodate. Even now, he has closed NURTW in Lagos and handed it over to his cronies. Is this the type of person that Nigeria wants to give power over the nation and national treasury and power?
Responsible delegates would avoid such a person because, when push goes to shove, Nigerians would be better off without such baggages. Hence the Osinbajo appeal would suffice.

Academic and foundational credence: Tinubu's state of origin, early education, age, and birth are all mysteries. Noone knows where he is from. Noone knows his father, no one knows where he got his first school leaving certificate nor his high school certificate nor diploma. All we hear is that he graduated from some University in the USA. There are those that say that his daughter is 61 years old while Tinubu is claiming 70 years old. That is a mystery too many to be overlooked. Hence Osinbajo would come as a sterling candidate to sell rather than a Tunubu with these baggages of unexplained mysteries.

Conclusion: Osinbajo would trounce Tinubu in APC primaries. However, APC may not form the next government, no matter who they field!

Amaechi is the incoming President.

haslaw:
Exactly my thoughts..

Besides, El-Rufai played the Muslim-Muslim ticket and it worked for him

Cc:. NainaCowFarm

elrufai played it against a subjugated southern kaduna whom the northern Muslims have boxed to a point

But when it comes to Nigeria, na two halves the British Divide am into North and South

Majority Christian's Majority Muslims, at all times both these two groups have to be seen to be carried along especially the southern Christian's that fuel this country

ucheheart:
As far as APC is concerned, Yoruba votes are divided BTW tinubu and osinbajo, so nothing for both of them. Amaechi will come out tops cos he got full backing from northwest and south south and also buhari 's anointed son. Watch out.

Go and do ur research from his home, how strong he is in his APC party o, before going out to Northwest pls.

pacificom:
Amaechi's popularity is limited in the south-south. He is not a popular candidate in the North and far less popular in the south west.

he don't need popularity in south west

Buhari has his 10m waiting for him in the north, by the way amaechi is very popular with the projects he has executed on the north

Just carrying the party flag he have inherited all the structures and so called popularity

NaijaCowFarm:
Leadership is not a popularity contest - Adams Oshomole

It is not arguable that Tinubu has a very large political structure. It is also not arguable that Tinubu can defeat Osinbajo in an Open Ballot system, but APC primaries are not going to be an open ballot system where people queue behind their candidates, rather it is going to be an Open-Secret Ballot system. In an open-ballot system, once I vote against you, you know, so I will be reluctant to vote another after assuring you or collecting your money. However, in an Open-Secret ballot, I can assure you that I will vote for you, collect your money yet vote my "heart".

Now on the day of the APC primaries, these are the facts that would be very clear:

Tinubu is too old to govern effectively: With the hindsight of Buhari's challenges, APC would rather go for a younger and much healthier candidate than an old and sick Tinubu. This is a clear advantage that Osinbajo would have. Most of the delegates would be easily swayed towards Osinbajo right inside the ballot cage, where they would thumb-print their ballot, fold it and come out openly to cast it in the ballot box. Mark you, it is going to be the same ballot box for all candidates, so you cannot know who was voted until the ballots are sorted and counted.

Tinubu's bad faith towards Ambode: The bad deed that Tinubu did to Ambode is still fresh in the minds of the governors, both single-term and second-term governors. it is on record that the governors overwhelmingly rejected the direct primaries simply because Tinubu and his men in NASS arranged to have them treated like Ambode. moreso, it was reported that the APC governor's forum led by Atiku Bagudu (who is still in charge by the way), went to Tinubu's residence in Abuja to beg and prostrate to the Jagaban to allow Ambode to complete his tenure, but baba shuns them. Now, he is running after the same Bagudu, even going to the Kebbi Lodge to beg then. They are sure to require their pound of flesh on behalf of Ambode.

Religious sentiments: Since 2015 Nigeria has been governed by a Muslim, Muhammadu Buhari. If another Muslim from the South takes over from Buhari in 2023, the Muslims would have had another 8 years, making a total of 16. Now when power returns to the North, obviously another Muslim would take over for another 8 years. In total, the Muslims would be president from 2015 - to 2039, a whopping 24 uninterrupted years. That is NOT FEASIBLE. Hence, rational as the delegates are, they would avoid such a trap that would easily hand power back to the PDP. The delegates would rather vote for Osinbajo than Tinubu.

Running mate wahahala: We all recall the challenges that Buhari faced in choosing a running mate in 2015. Buhari was under pressure to avoid the Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2015, even with over 10 million Northern votes in the kitty. Tells that with a Tinubu's candidacy, it would be tougher for APC. Firstly, Tinubu does not have the cult following that Buhari commanded in 2015. Secondly, the North would never accept a Northern Christian VP, this is an unwritten law. Adopting such would mean FAILURE in the North. Hence the only option that Tinubu would have is a Muslim-Muslim ticket, which would FAIL woefully at elections. Even APC NEC would advise against such a move. The obvious alternative would be Osinbajo.

Unaccounted Baggages: Accountability is the acceptance of responsibility for one's own actions. It implies a willingness to be transparent, allowing others to observe and evaluate one's performance. Integrity is the quality of being honest and having strong moral principles; moral uprightness. Measured on these two words, Osinbajo would beat Tinubu by a clear distance. Firstly, Tinubu has held Lagos to a stranglehold for the past 23 years. He has made sure that his son controls all the key revenue-generating sectors of the state, the numerous toll gates, etc. His daughter controls all the markets in Lagos, his son-in-law is in NASS, and his wife is a senator for life, he receives 10% tithes from Lagos State. These are baggages that Nigeria's state cannot accommodate. Even now, he has closed NURTW in Lagos and handed it over to his cronies. Is this the type of person that Nigeria wants to give power over the nation and national treasury and power?
Responsible delegates would avoid such a person because, when push goes to shove, Nigerians would be better off without such baggages. Hence the Osinbajo appeal would suffice.

Academic and foundational credence: Tinubu's state of origin, early education, age, and birth are all mysteries. Noone knows where he is from. Noone knows his father, no one knows where he got his first school leaving certificate nor his high school certificate nor diploma. All we hear is that he graduated from some University in the USA. There are those that say that his daughter is 61 years old while Tinubu is claiming 70 years old. That is a mystery too many to be overlooked. Hence Osinbajo would come as a sterling candidate to sell rather than a Tunubu with these baggages of unexplained mysteries.

Conclusion: Osinbajo would trounce Tinubu in APC primaries. However, APC may not form the next government, no matter who they field!

Osibanjo cannot win Bola in a free and fair contest. I do not even see him as threat. The man hasn't the political clout and connection to swindle the votes of delegates to himself. I can stake a bet that Osibanjo won't win.

NaijaCowFarm:
Leadership is not a popularity contest - Adams Oshomole

It is not arguable that Tinubu has a very large political structure. It is also not arguable that Tinubu can defeat Osinbajo in an Open Ballot system, but APC primaries are not going to be an open ballot system where people queue behind their candidates, rather it is going to be an Open-Secret Ballot system. In an open-ballot system, once I vote against you, you know, so I will be reluctant to vote another after assuring you or collecting your money. However, in an Open-Secret ballot, I can assure you that I will vote for you, collect your money yet vote my "heart".

Now on the day of the APC primaries, these are the facts that would be very clear:

Tinubu is too old to govern effectively: With the hindsight of Buhari's challenges, APC would rather go for a younger and much healthier candidate than an old and sick Tinubu. This is a clear advantage that Osinbajo would have. Most of the delegates would be easily swayed towards Osinbajo right inside the ballot cage, where they would thumb-print their ballot, fold it and come out openly to cast it in the ballot box. Mark you, it is going to be the same ballot box for all candidates, so you cannot know who was voted until the ballots are sorted and counted.

Tinubu's bad faith towards Ambode: The bad deed that Tinubu did to Ambode is still fresh in the minds of the governors, both single-term and second-term governors. it is on record that the governors overwhelmingly rejected the direct primaries simply because Tinubu and his men in NASS arranged to have them treated like Ambode. moreso, it was reported that the APC governor's forum led by Atiku Bagudu (who is still in charge by the way), went to Tinubu's residence in Abuja to beg and prostrate to the Jagaban to allow Ambode to complete his tenure, but baba shuns them. Now, he is running after the same Bagudu, even going to the Kebbi Lodge to beg then. They are sure to require their pound of flesh on behalf of Ambode.

Religious sentiments: Since 2015 Nigeria has been governed by a Muslim, Muhammadu Buhari. If another Muslim from the South takes over from Buhari in 2023, the Muslims would have had another 8 years, making a total of 16. Now when power returns to the North, obviously another Muslim would take over for another 8 years. In total, the Muslims would be president from 2015 - to 2039, a whopping 24 uninterrupted years. That is NOT FEASIBLE. Hence, rational as the delegates are, they would avoid such a trap that would easily hand power back to the PDP. The delegates would rather vote for Osinbajo than Tinubu.

Running mate wahahala: We all recall the challenges that Buhari faced in choosing a running mate in 2015. Buhari was under pressure to avoid the Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2015, even with over 10 million Northern votes in the kitty. Tells that with a Tinubu's candidacy, it would be tougher for APC. Firstly, Tinubu does not have the cult following that Buhari commanded in 2015. Secondly, the North would never accept a Northern Christian VP, this is an unwritten law. Adopting such would mean FAILURE in the North. Hence the only option that Tinubu would have is a Muslim-Muslim ticket, which would FAIL woefully at elections. Even APC NEC would advise against such a move. The obvious alternative would be Osinbajo.

Unaccounted Baggages: Accountability is the acceptance of responsibility for one's own actions. It implies a willingness to be transparent, allowing others to observe and evaluate one's performance. Integrity is the quality of being honest and having strong moral principles; moral uprightness. Measured on these two words, Osinbajo would beat Tinubu by a clear distance. Firstly, Tinubu has held Lagos to a stranglehold for the past 23 years. He has made sure that his son controls all the key revenue-generating sectors of the state, the numerous toll gates, etc. His daughter controls all the markets in Lagos, his son-in-law is in NASS, and his wife is a senator for life, he receives 10% tithes from Lagos State. These are baggages that Nigeria's state cannot accommodate. Even now, he has closed NURTW in Lagos and handed it over to his cronies. Is this the type of person that Nigeria wants to give power over the nation and national treasury and power?
Responsible delegates would avoid such a person because, when push goes to shove, Nigerians would be better off without such baggages. Hence the Osinbajo appeal would suffice.

Academic and foundational credence: Tinubu's state of origin, early education, age, and birth are all mysteries. Noone knows where he is from. Noone knows his father, no one knows where he got his first school leaving certificate nor his high school certificate nor diploma. All we hear is that he graduated from some University in the USA. There are those that say that his daughter is 61 years old while Tinubu is claiming 70 years old. That is a mystery too many to be overlooked. Hence Osinbajo would come as a sterling candidate to sell rather than a Tunubu with these baggages of unexplained mysteries.

Conclusion: Osinbajo would trounce Tinubu in APC primaries. However, APC may not form the next government, no matter who they field!

The most myopic assessment I have ever read this year.

I don't understand how in your wildest imagination you cannot see the writing on the wall already. All the odds favor Tinubu. He has Lagos and Kano delegates in his pocket. He has been endorsed by the National Assembly both active and former. The House are in his armpit. He doesn't need to give anyone money to vote him, he did that last election, majority of the Hoyse of Reps from APC he sponsored....
The only person that can defeat him in the APC is Buhari, the last time I checked, he is not contesting.
The primaries will be done very quickly. Tinubu will easily be victorious.

oursnail:
You don't know anything. Just go and ask OBJ , senator Rasheed Ladoja and Bukola Akerele about the true age of Asiwaju Tinubu you will keep quiet. Where was you in 1992? Osinbajo is not on the list. Elephant is not small bush animal.

Thanks for bringing this up. Look at his picture very well. Even in 1992 whike contesting for the senatorial position, he was already looking old. Look at his shrinking neck which is a sign of old age. In my calculation, if Tinubu's wife couid die at age 74 in 2018, Tinubu is well over 80 years. So, tell me, how can a dishonest man like this be honest with power? O ga oo

Donshegxy10:
Firstly about age and background, there was no argument in 93,99 and 2003 when tinubu won elections in lagos, why now?
His he a yoruba man, a nigerian? If yes then where he came from doesnt matter.

Educational qualifications, requirement for presidency is a primary school leaving certificate, this is a man that has a university degree, his degree with an outstanding hons award was verified from chicago, this is someone that went to become an executive in over 3 international organisations, you cant dispute his qualifications.

About deputy, leave it to tinubu, he will find a well accepted northern christian, for example dogara is a christian and he rose up to become the number 4 man in nigeria in the midst of muslims.

Baggages.......
Show me 1 politician among the top aspirant without a baggage.

In 2019, when wike who was in charge of pdp wanted tambuwal and atiku brought money, why didnt they vote tambuwal instead.

Politics is about structure, aliances and money.

No nigerian politician as of today has helped, impacted and elevate people the way tinubu has done.

On ambode.......
If you are intune with lagos politics you will understand that ambode outsting was not tinubu's doing, it was the work of mandate group, who has the highest number of apc membership in lagos then, it was led by aregbesola and cardinal odunbaku.
Ambode stepped on many toes.

Does osinbajo has a structure to win apc primary, or does he has the money to spend.

Osinbajo is a featherweight politically, masses may like him but the delegate that will vote at the primaries knows only JAGABAN.

Tinubu is a strategist and a winner, i just hope some of you people will show your face after the primaries when osinbajo is humbled like ambode.

Its just a matter of weeks, let us be patient.

Let me comment on most confused u analysis.
Ask urself, how fashola, ambode, sanwo-olu and yaradua won election despite contesting with those who were very stroger than them, both in pry and general election.

I deliberately picked several characters from Lagos which I biliv u re familiar with very well, if you do justice to urself , you will know how Osinbanjo will convincely defeat Tinubu.

Let’s spit fact. Asiwaju cannot lose to Osibanjo in APC. Forget that he’s the VP currently, he doesn’t have a structure compared to Tinubu, he’ll surely meet a Tinubu loyalist somewhere. That’s just the plain truth.

The running mate point you made is spot on. Tinubu will have a problem there. He can't pick a nothern Muslim as every right thinking Nigerian Christian like me will not vote for that combination. The north won't vote for an ibo vice nor vote for a nothern Christian. PDP on the other hand won't have that kind of problem. I honestly think Osinbanjo is the best candidate for APC if they don't want to be tagged as a Muslim party.