Leadership is not a popularity contest - Adams Oshomole

It is not arguable that Tinubu has a very large political structure. It is also not arguable that Tinubu can defeat Osinbajo in an Open Ballot system, but APC primaries are not going to be an open ballot system where people queue behind their candidates, rather it is going to be an Open-Secret Ballot system. In an open-ballot system, once I vote against you, you know, so I will be reluctant to vote another after assuring you or collecting your money. However, in an Open-Secret ballot, I can assure you that I will vote for you, collect your money yet vote my "heart".

Now on the day of the APC primaries, these are the facts that would be very clear:

Tinubu is too old to govern effectively: With the hindsight of Buhari's challenges, APC would rather go for a younger and much healthier candidate than an old and sick Tinubu. This is a clear advantage that Osinbajo would have. Most of the delegates would be easily swayed towards Osinbajo right inside the ballot cage, where they would thumb-print their ballot, fold it and come out openly to cast it in the ballot box. Mark you, it is going to be the same ballot box for all candidates, so you cannot know who was voted until the ballots are sorted and counted.

Tinubu's bad faith towards Ambode: The bad deed that Tinubu did to Ambode is still fresh in the minds of the governors, both single-term and second-term governors. it is on record that the governors overwhelmingly rejected the direct primaries simply because Tinubu and his men in NASS arranged to have them treated like Ambode. moreso, it was reported that the APC governor's forum led by Atiku Bagudu (who is still in charge by the way), went to Tinubu's residence in Abuja to beg and prostrate to the Jagaban to allow Ambode to complete his tenure, but baba shuns them. Now, he is running after the same Bagudu, even going to the Kebbi Lodge to beg then. They are sure to require their pound of flesh on behalf of Ambode.

Religious sentiments: Since 2015 Nigeria has been governed by a Muslim, Muhammadu Buhari. If another Muslim from the South takes over from Buhari in 2023, the Muslims would have had another 8 years, making a total of 16. Now when power returns to the North, obviously another Muslim would take over for another 8 years. In total, the Muslims would be president from 2015 - to 2039, a whopping 24 uninterrupted years. That is NOT FEASIBLE. Hence, rational as the delegates are, they would avoid such a trap that would easily hand power back to the PDP. The delegates would rather vote for Osinbajo than Tinubu.

Running mate wahahala: We all recall the challenges that Buhari faced in choosing a running mate in 2015. Buhari was under pressure to avoid the Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2015, even with over 10 million Northern votes in the kitty. Tells that with a Tinubu's candidacy, it would be tougher for APC. Firstly, Tinubu does not have the cult following that Buhari commanded in 2015. Secondly, the North would never accept a Northern Christian VP, this is an unwritten law. Adopting such would mean FAILURE in the North. Hence the only option that Tinubu would have is a Muslim-Muslim ticket, which would FAIL woefully at elections. Even APC NEC would advise against such a move. The obvious alternative would be Osinbajo.

Unaccounted Baggages: Accountability is the acceptance of responsibility for one's own actions. It implies a willingness to be transparent, allowing others to observe and evaluate one's performance. Integrity is the quality of being honest and having strong moral principles; moral uprightness. Measured on these two words, Osinbajo would beat Tinubu by a clear distance. Firstly, Tinubu has held Lagos to a stranglehold for the past 23 years. He has made sure that his son controls all the key revenue-generating sectors of the state, the numerous toll gates, etc. His daughter controls all the markets in Lagos, his son-in-law is in NASS, and his wife is a senator for life, he receives 10% tithes from Lagos State. These are baggages that Nigeria's state cannot accommodate. Even now, he has closed NURTW in Lagos and handed it over to his cronies. Is this the type of person that Nigeria wants to give power over the nation and national treasury and power?
Responsible delegates would avoid such a person because, when push goes to shove, Nigerians would be better off without such baggages. Hence the Osinbajo appeal would suffice.

Academic and foundational credence: Tinubu's state of origin, early education, age, and birth are all mysteries. Noone knows where he is from. Noone knows his father, no one knows where he got his first school leaving certificate nor his high school certificate nor diploma. All we hear is that he graduated from some University in the USA. There are those that say that his daughter is 61 years old while Tinubu is claiming 70 years old. That is a mystery too many to be overlooked. Hence Osinbajo would come as a sterling candidate to sell rather than a Tunubu with these baggages of unexplained mysteries.

Conclusion: Osinbajo would trounce Tinubu in APC primaries. However, APC may not form the next government, no matter who they field!

It's seems we are underating the Likes of Ameachi here

A total nonsense.

Tinubuadvocate:
A total nonsense.

We told you that Adamu would be crowned APC chairman, you said the same thing and more. Today, you have accepted your fate

You mean??

Igbos and their daily rubbish ..

Osinbanjo doesn't have the balls(manpower)

Both of them will lose to Amaechi

Yoruba people and dia wahala

Iyadesa:
It's seems we are underating the Likes of Ameachi here

Allow the Yorubas to continue deceiving themselves

NaijaCowFarm:


We told you that Adamu would be crowned APC chairman, you said the same thing and more. Today, you have accepted your fate

A consensus can emerge for chairman n not presidency.

All u wrote up there na rubbish

.

Tinubu has nailed himself already and he won't get the ticket not alone of winning the primaries

plaindealer:
Igbos and their daily rubbish ..

He supported the candidature of Osinbajo,yet you brought in tribe,is it wrong for an IBO man to support osibanjo a Yoruba man? What is wrong with you?

The writer is on point

Political calculation in Nigeria is always done by pertisan psychophant.

You don't know anything. Just go and ask OBJ , senator Rasheed Ladoja and Bukola Akerele about the true age of Asiwaju Tinubu you will keep quiet. Where was you in 1992? Osinbajo is not on the list. Elephant is not small bush animal.

Iyadesa:
It's seems we are underating the Likes of Ameachi here

Amaechi is not in consideration. Forget his 'smoke screen' challenge. APC candidate will 100% be from the SW.

Dsalvo:


Amaechi is not in consideration. Forget his 'smoke screen' challenge. APC candidate will 100% be from the SW

I agree with you, the OP is on point

Interesting
But Vp Bleep up for contesting against Jagaban

Ttalk:


I agree with you, the OP is on point

He is not. Tinubu will not lose to Osinbajo regardless of the abuse of power any bloc wants to institute to make the VP the candidate of APC.

The schism that will ensue in the APC , from the Presidency trying to force Osinbajo on the democratic choice of others, will destroy the ruling Party and hand an undeserved victory to the PDP.

Tinubu will always be okay and, per the way SW is thinking and moving today, BAT will have relevance as a mentor of a Nigeria that has to be restructured along regional lines and in respect of devolution of power away from a destructively strong center.

It is not even in our hands anymore. Our structure is unsustainable per world events we do not control. Nigeria must adapt or die.

With that reality, that we cannot escape, Osinbajo will quickly go on to be another Namadi Sambo with his 15 minutes of fame, courtesy of Tinubu, over quickly.

As far as APC is concerned, Yoruba votes are divided BTW tinubu and osinbajo, so nothing for both of them. Amaechi will come out tops cos he got full backing from northwest and south south and also buhari 's anointed son. Watch out.

NaijaCowFarm:
Leadership is not a popularity contest - Adams Oshomole

It is not arguable that Tinubu has a very large political structure. It is also not arguable that Tinubu can defeat Osinbajo in an Open Ballot system, but APC primaries are not going to be an open ballot system where people queue behind their candidates, rather it is going to be an Open-Secret Ballot system. In an open-ballot system, once I vote against you, you know, so I will be reluctant to vote another after assuring you or collecting your money. However, in an Open-Secret ballot, I can assure you that I will vote for you, collect your money yet vote my "heart".

Now on the day of the APC primaries, these are the facts that would be very clear:

Tinubu is too old to govern effectively: With the hindsight of Buhari's challenges, APC would rather go for a younger and much healthier candidate than an old and sick Tinubu. This is a clear advantage that Osinbajo would have. Most of the delegates would be easily swayed towards Osinbajo right inside the ballot cage, where they would thumb-print their ballot, fold it and come out openly to cast it in the ballot box. Mark you, it is going to be the same ballot box for all candidates, so you cannot know who was voted until the ballots are sorted and counted.

Tinubu's bad faith towards Ambode: The bad deed that Tinubu did to Ambode is still fresh in the minds of the governors, both single-term and second-term governors. it is on record that the governors overwhelmingly rejected the direct primaries simply because Tinubu and his men in NASS arranged to have them treated like Ambode. moreso, it was reported that the APC governor's forum led by Atiku Bagudu (who is still in charge by the way), went to Tinubu's residence in Abuja to beg and prostrate to the Jagaban to allow Ambode to complete his tenure, but baba shuns them. Now, he is running after the same Bagudu, even going to the Kebbi Lodge to beg then. They are sure to require their pound of flesh on behalf of Ambode.

Religious sentiments: Since 2015 Nigeria has been governed by a Muslim, Muhammadu Buhari. If another Muslim from the South takes over from Buhari in 2023, the Muslims would have had another 8 years, making a total of 16. Now when power returns to the North, obviously another Muslim would take over for another 8 years. In total, the Muslims would be president from 2015 - to 2039, a whopping 24 uninterrupted years. That is NOT FEASIBLE. Hence, rational as the delegates are, they would avoid such a trap that would easily hand power back to the PDP. The delegates would rather vote for Osinbajo than Tinubu.

Running mate wahahala: We all recall the challenges that Buhari faced in choosing a running mate in 2015. Buhari was under pressure to avoid the Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2015, even with over 10 million Northern votes in the kitty. Tells that with a Tinubu's candidacy, it would be tougher for APC. Firstly, Tinubu does not have the cult following that Buhari commanded in 2015. Secondly, the North would never accept a Northern Christian VP, this is an unwritten law. Adopting such would mean FAILURE in the North. Hence the only option that Tinubu would have is a Muslim-Muslim ticket, which would FAIL woefully at elections. Even APC NEC would advise against such a move. The obvious alternative would be Osinbajo.

Unaccounted Baggages: Accountability is the acceptance of responsibility for one's own actions. It implies a willingness to be transparent, allowing others to observe and evaluate one's performance. Integrity is the quality of being honest and having strong moral principles; moral uprightness. Measured on these two words, Osinbajo would beat Tinubu by a clear distance. Firstly, Tinubu has held Lagos to a stranglehold for the past 23 years. He has made sure that his son controls all the key revenue-generating sectors of the state, the numerous toll gates, etc. His daughter controls all the markets in Lagos, his son-in-law is in NASS, and his wife is a senator for life, he receives 10% tithes from Lagos State. These are baggages that Nigeria's state cannot accommodate. Even now, he has closed NURTW in Lagos and handed it over to his cronies. Is this the type of person that Nigeria wants to give power over the nation and national treasury and power?
Responsible delegates would avoid such a person because, when push goes to shove, Nigerians would be better off without such baggages. Hence the Osinbajo appeal would suffice.

Academic and foundational credence: Tinubu's state of origin, early education, age, and birth are all mysteries. Noone knows where he is from. Noone knows his father, no one knows where he got his first school leaving certificate nor his high school certificate nor diploma. All we hear is that he graduated from some University in the USA. There are those that say that his daughter is 61 years old while Tinubu is claiming 70 years old. That is a mystery too many to be overlooked. Hence Osinbajo would come as a sterling candidate to sell rather than a Tunubu with these baggages of unexplained mysteries.

Conclusion: Osinbajo would trounce Tinubu in APC primaries. However, APC may not form the next government, no matter who they field!

Correct analysis, i wrote about how osinbajo will win with landslide but they don't believe, my only argument about your write up is that I don't think pdp will win in 2023.

There will be no primaries sef .APC will go consensus as usual

Dem two name no go dey ballot, period!

SarkinYarki:
There will be no primaries sef .APC will go consensus as usual

It will be by consensus arrangement. Buhari knows Tinubu would dollarize the primary.

MikoB:


Correct analysis, i wrote about how osinbajo will win with landslide but they don't believe, my only argument about your write up is that I don't think pdp will win in 2023.

PDP cannot win presidential election but it would win more states

oursnail:
You don't know anything. Just go and ask OBJ , senator Rasheed Ladoja and Bukola Akerele about the true age of Asiwaju Tinubu you will keep quiet. Where was you in 1992? Osinbajo is not on the list. Elephant is not small bush animal.

Neither is it the king of the Jungle, he will be humbled like MKO Abiola.

The only viable point in your write up is running mate point. Others are less important.

Honestly this are statements of facts