Munamoqel:
By all permutations it mathematical impossible for obi win 23 state .and futher 25 percent in the remaining 11 state .this not emotional calculation but rational .you can do the math your self . Nigeria needs a two party system (dorminate ) to achieve this mathematical possibility ( 23 state ) and 25 percent of 11 . But the obituary/obidient supporter are just too emotional and can reason they are like buhari CPC cult follower that got 12m votes without a win .

Ahmed0336:
I am also of that thought. Let's wait and see what 2023 will bring.

From my personal analysis, obi will win 4 south east States and get 25% in one. 25% in all south south states making 11 states.

To south west he will get 25% in Lagos.
North central 25% in Nasarawa, Fct, Benue, Plateau,
North east 25% in taraba and gombe.

North west 25% in Kd.

Total 18 states.

Let's see how it goes.

mrvitalis:

Lol I think obi would get 25% in every south west state plus Abuja

ImmaculateJOE:
What Obi needs is
1. Have the highest number of votes in total.
2. Get @least 25% votes in 2/3(24) of the states plus FCT..... That's all.

Even if he did not win any states and still achieve these two conditions, he will be declared the winner.
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From my own point of view, Obi will get 25% votes in the following states.

SE: 5- Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo.
SS: 6- Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross river, Delta, Edo, Rivers.
SW: 3- Ekiti, Lagos, Ondo.
NC: 3-Benue, Nasarawa, Plateau.
NE: 2- Adamawa, Taraba.
NW: 1- Kaduna.

Total=20 +FCT

States that Obidients needs to work harder and get the needed 25% votes..
Ogun, Oyo, Kogi, Gombe..

mrvitalis:


Ogun and Oyo na sure 25% surely ,kogi is sure , kwara and osun with hard work can happen , gombe same too with hard work ...but I think obi might surprise people and get 25% in adamawa

Munamoqel:
By all permutations it mathematical impossible for obi win 23 state .and futher 25 percent in the remaining 11 state .this not emotional calculation but rational .you can do the math your self . Nigeria needs a two party system (dorminate ) to achieve this mathematical possibility ( 23 state ) and 25 percent of 11 . But the obituary/obidient supporter are just too emotional and can reason they are like buhari CPC cult follower that got 12m votes without a win .

tctrills:

Stop showing the world your ignorance. At least do some research before posting nonsense. Buhari won 2019 with only 19 states and he did not have up to 25% in the South East.
Even if you were correct, both Tinubu and Atiku would also need the same number of states.

ImmaculateJOE:
What Obi needs is
1. Have the highest number of votes in total.
2. Get @least 25% votes in 2/3(24) of the states plus FCT..... That's all.

Even if he did not win any states and still achieve these two conditions, he will be declared the winner.
.
.
.
From my own point of view, Obi will get 25% votes in the following states.

SE: 5- Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo.
SS: 6- Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross river, Delta, Edo, Rivers.
SW: 3- Ekiti, Lagos, Ondo.
NC: 3-Benue, Nasarawa, Plateau.
NE: 2- Adamawa, Taraba.
NW: 1- Kaduna.

Total=20 +FCT

States that Obidients needs to work harder and get the needed 25% votes..
Ogun, Oyo, Kogi, Gombe..

HOW IS THE BOLDED POSSIBLE . THAT IS A FANTASTIC FANTASY!

Munamoqel:
By all permutations it mathematical impossible for obi win 23 state .and futher 25 percent in the remaining 11 state .this not emotional calculation but rational .you can do the math your self . Nigeria needs a two party system (dorminate ) to achieve this mathematical possibility ( 23 state ) and 25 percent of 11 . But the obituary/obidient supporter are just too emotional and can reason they are like buhari CPC cult follower that got 12m votes without a win .

ImmaculateJOE:

There is no surprises @all in Adamawa, we gave Atiku victory over Buhari in 2019. We are Obidient now..
Obi is sure of 30% in Adamawa.
Oyo, Ogun and Osun are the most core Yoruba states, getting 25% votes in these states against Tinibu for any party (pdp or LP) is a very hard nut to crack..

Kogi is also very difficult.. Gombe is easier to get than Kogi.
Tinibu will clear kwara and Osun with over 70%

Softmirror:


HOW IS THE BOLDED POSSIBLE . THAT IS A FANTASTIC FANTASY!

mrvitalis:

From my research tinubu is not particularly popular among Libra Yorubas ....if it was osibanjo he would clear 90% sure ...I don't see tinubu getting more than 60% that leaves obi with a chance of 25% ...

If obi fails to get 25% in 4 to 5 south west States it would be almost impossible for him to win ... except he performs miracle in Niger , bauchi , gombe and yobe

ImmaculateJOE:

Very possible..
Imagine him coming second in all the 36 states where the first position will be shared evenly between Tinibu and Atiku.

Ahmed0336:
I am also of that thought. Let's wait and see what 2023 will bring.

From my personal analysis, obi will win 4 south east States and get 25% in one. 25% in all south south states making 11 states.

To south west he will get 25% in Lagos.
North central 25% in Nasarawa, Fct, Benue, Plateau,
North east 25% in taraba and gombe.

North west 25% in Kd.

Total 18 states.

Let's see how it goes.

pinkPUSSY:
Who's is mathematically possible to win ?

DeleTaller:


I am still thinking how Obi is going to translate or transform his online political stardom into winning at least 15 states.. Even his Igbos leaders are not supporting him... Even the Lagos Ohanaeze and their political wing has declared their support for Sanwo Olu and Tinubu.

After the election every candidate shall count their loses, probably this is why Obi said publicly that him no dey give shishi after he has paid heavily to Labour before giving him that slot.