[quote author=Validated post=115575053]Peter Obi will deafeat Tinubu and Atiku to second and distant last. The analyst is bias. The only states Obi cannot get 50% are Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, and Lagos.[/


igbos are more than any other tribe in lagos except the yorubas na igbos get lagos, peter chances in lagos is over 50%

Melagros:

Lalong doesn't have that political influence in Plateau State, you could recall that his second term was rigged (PDP won the election). 80% of the population (indigenes) of that State is Christianity. With APC's Muslim-Muslim ticket, Plateau is a no go area for Tinubu

It wasn't rigged.lalong won fair and square

einsteine:


That's not true.

In Presidential elections, APC has scored above 40% in the last two elections.

And you think it still remains the same?

mystery22:
bats at work,imagine the data..
Well can't expect anything better after eating agbado and cassava you will start imagining unrealistic figures and stats

Tinubu can never win osun states...


The election is actually between Peter obi and Peter obi...
The youths are tired

You are just on point!
APC should just take us back to 2015 where a dollar was about 180 naira, qbeg not be by force, we no want do again!!!

chigoizie7:


And you think it still remains the same?

Of course.

I can bet you that Akoko Edo, Etsako and Owan will all vote APC. That's 5 local government with APC landslide victory. APC will also do at least 25% in Edo South. It is only in Edo central that APC will do poorly.

Megabig:


I’ve been thinking how he will win plateau, is Jos not part of plateau? This analysis is pure day dream

They should enjoy. I nor blame dem. Na Lalong I blame

Realistic, unfortunately when we add the influence of vote buying, intimidation by the ruling party, APC may have the edge. And I agree with you, Lagos may be ready to post a surprise, but trust emi lokan thugs to take matters into their hands. Even when the stakes were not high, inec n security watched them prevent voters from a particular area from voting, imagine what will happen now that it is their godfather that's on the ballot

FreeStuffsNG:

It is inexperience that is worrying you all.
Go to inec website and find out how many wards and polling statiins we have and it will hit you that you are playing too much on the social media.
You need candidates to contest in every ward and you need polling agents in every polling station. No individual can achieve it alone especially without political structure and that is why politicians form alliances.
Only social media folks like you vote for individuals, out there,most voters will take advice from their local political leader who dispense the favours and they will vote for his/her party. That political leader is either an APC (wo)man or PDP (wo)man .
The reality is that there is othing for mushroom parties.

You are just deceiving yourself. What you just said work mostly in the North. With the suffering that is currently going on in Nigeria, I pity APC. Both the rich and the poor dey feel the effect of APC bad governance The party has a lot of things going against it. M-M ticket is there. Bad governance is there. Tinubu giving us vibe of Buhari all over again. The factors that made PDP to lose presidential election can now be found in APC. Let APC be deceiving themselves online.

I am from Delta State. In presidential election, Obi will win Delta State. I am confident because a mushroom party
called DPP hass won over 10 state house of assembly seats and a house of rep seat because of a popular candidate called Great Ogboru. Ogboru lost the governorship election that year because election was rigged in the riverine areas. But with BIVAS you can't produce fictitious results from the riverine areas again. In fact, the current deputy Senate president Ovie Omo Agege first got to the Senate with Labour Party due to influence of Ogboru. Coupled with the fact that Okowa is not loved in Delta State, so his being Atiku VP won't really sway voter's that much.

Many politicians are greatly disliked. I don't want to use the word hate. They can't influence Jack in the election, unless through vote buying. It is Northerners that have herd mentality. Many Southerners, especially those in the urban areas, cannot be influenced to the extent that they will vote bad candidates.

Since people are becoming confident in the electoral process, expect huge shock in this election. Nothing is sure for anybody at the moment. Let's just watch as things unfold.

For party agents, that is not difficult. I am sure people will volunteer to be party agents for labour party. Obi movement is organic. They can sort that out between now and the election. But one thing about this election is that the odds are against APC.

manutdrichie:


The only error in his analysis

who told you? Error plenty. Who will give Tinubu votes in Edo and Benue? Even Nasarawa? Lolz, I laugh

Faiththatworks:
I'm sure this data was gathered from the Biafran bureau of stastics,Haba this is a very childish representation of what 2023 polls will look like.
How will Peter Obi win any state in the South-south and 2 states in the North Central,that's a terrible fallacy.
Peter Obi will not win the election of 2023,I daresay he won't even come 3rd,if he's able to get up to 2 million votes around Nigeria then he tried.
Delta will be a straight fight between Okowa,Ibori and Omo-Agege,with PDP pulling off a victory,Edo will witness another battle between Oshiomole and Obaseki,I'm sure the margins between both parties will be small with Peter Obi playing the spoiler.
Akwa Ibom,Cross river and Bayelsa will be very tight also,but Peter Obi will play the spoiler again and reduce whatever large difference Atiku will give Asiwaju.
Rivers is not too certain,if Wike continues with his tantrums until the day of election,then It will be too close to call between APC and PDP, remember APC haven't had an elected aspirant in Rivers in 4 yrs,I'm sure it will be very bitter in Rivers this time around, again Obi will be the spoiler for PDP.
It will be a total decimation for Obi in the North-west and North-East,I expect a fierce battle between Atiku and Kwankwanso in the North-west,with Asiwaju playing catch-up,while Atiku and Shettima will battle out the North-East,I see Atiku winning that zone but with little Margin.
The North Central will be a battle between Atiku and Asiwaju,I expect it to be very close with Asiwaju winning kwara,kogi and Nassarawa,while Atiku will take Niger, Taraba,Benue.
Plateau will be too close to call.
I have left the south west and south east out of it because Asiwaju will win the south west,and Obi will win the South-east but the PDP will.be very close in both region.
Seriously Asiwaju will only win this election if he's able to stay very very close to whatever Numbers Atiku and Kwankwanso pull out from the North-west and North-East.
As for Obi,he will just end up spoiling whatever Numbers Atiku should have pulled to win the Election.
I daresay if u add up Obi numbers and Atiku numbers in 2023,it would have been enough to make Atiku the president of Nigeria.
That's a prophecy.
God bless Nigeria.

You are sleeping on a bike

H100:
According to the trends data, using the past 7 (seven) days' filter 03-08-2022 to 10-08-2022.

OVERALL AVERAGE

Bola Ahmed Tinubu (49%)
Atiku Abubakar (26%)
Peter Obi (48%)
Rabiu Kwankwaso (3%)

There are still about 6 months before February 2023, but I can tell you that the significant contest will be between Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Peter Obi, and Atiku Abubakar.

There are also going to be lots of surprises, more swing states or battleground states are emerging.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu leads with about 15 states: Ekiti, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Kwara, Lagos, Jigawa, Plateau, Niger, Kogi, Kaduna, Bauchi, Borno, and Taraba.

It's good to share that in Lagos, Bola Ahmed Tinubu had 41%, while Peter Obi is at 38%.

Can Lagos be a swing state?

Next, Peter Obi leads with about 13 states: Edo, Delta, Benue, Nasarawa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Imo, Bayelsa, Abia, Ebonyi, Anambra, and Enugu.

Do you know that the FCT will also be a battleground?

Bola Ahmed Tinubu 37% and Peter Obi 37% each, according to the trends at this time.

Next, Atiku Abubakar with about 8 states: Kebbi, Yobe, Katsina, Sokoto, Zamfara, Gombe, Adamawa and Kano.

Yes, I was equally surprised with the traction from Kano - Atiku Abubakar 33%, Bola Ahmed Tinubu 26%, Rabiu Kwankwaso 24%, and Peter Obi 17%.

It’s good to share that Kwankwaso’s highest traction is from Kano, but they also have been growing in Jigawa, Katsina, Yobe, Bauchi, and Borno State.

SWING STATES OR BATTLEGROUND STATES:

(a) Katsina State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 40% and Atiku Abubakar 41%.

(b) Yobe State - Atiku Abubakar 47% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 41%.

(c) Lagos State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 41% and Peter Obi 38%.

(d) Kebbi State - Atiku Abubakar 51% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 49%.

(e) Edo State - Peter Obi 43% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 38%.

(f) Plateau State - Peter Obi 37% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 39%.

(g) Jigawa State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 40% and Atiku Abubakar 39%.

(h) FCT - Peter Obi 37% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 37%.

(i) Borno State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 37% and Atiku Abubakar 36%.

(j) Benue State - Peter Obi 41% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 36%.

(k) Nasarawa State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 36% and Peter Obi 39%.

(l) Taraba State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 36%, Peter Obi 34%, and Atiku Abubakar 30%.

Data Spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcoddwJ21tVzj9n0EtJgBPN-jrNWIPSzPp2ssxoC8os/edit?usp=sharing


Credit : Aderogba Otunla

I am from plateau state and I can tell you for free that we are 100percent obedient,our clueless mistake of a governor is totally on his own.

H100:
According to the trends data, using the past 7 (seven) days' filter 03-08-2022 to 10-08-2022.

OVERALL AVERAGE

Bola Ahmed Tinubu (49%)
Atiku Abubakar (26%)
Peter Obi (48%)
Rabiu Kwankwaso (3%)

There are still about 6 months before February 2023, but I can tell you that the significant contest will be between Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Peter Obi, and Atiku Abubakar.

There are also going to be lots of surprises, more swing states or battleground states are emerging.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu leads with about 15 states: Ekiti, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Kwara, Lagos, Jigawa, Plateau, Niger, Kogi, Kaduna, Bauchi, Borno, and Taraba.

It's good to share that in Lagos, Bola Ahmed Tinubu had 41%, while Peter Obi is at 38%.

Can Lagos be a swing state?

Next, Peter Obi leads with about 13 states: Edo, Delta, Benue, Nasarawa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Imo, Bayelsa, Abia, Ebonyi, Anambra, and Enugu.

Do you know that the FCT will also be a battleground?

Bola Ahmed Tinubu 37% and Peter Obi 37% each, according to the trends at this time.

Next, Atiku Abubakar with about 8 states: Kebbi, Yobe, Katsina, Sokoto, Zamfara, Gombe, Adamawa and Kano.

Yes, I was equally surprised with the traction from Kano - Atiku Abubakar 33%, Bola Ahmed Tinubu 26%, Rabiu Kwankwaso 24%, and Peter Obi 17%.

It’s good to share that Kwankwaso’s highest traction is from Kano, but they also have been growing in Jigawa, Katsina, Yobe, Bauchi, and Borno State.

SWING STATES OR BATTLEGROUND STATES:

(a) Katsina State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 40% and Atiku Abubakar 41%.

(b) Yobe State - Atiku Abubakar 47% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 41%.

(c) Lagos State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 41% and Peter Obi 38%.

(d) Kebbi State - Atiku Abubakar 51% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 49%.

(e) Edo State - Peter Obi 43% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 38%.

(f) Plateau State - Peter Obi 37% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 39%.

(g) Jigawa State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 40% and Atiku Abubakar 39%.

(h) FCT - Peter Obi 37% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 37%.

(i) Borno State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 37% and Atiku Abubakar 36%.

(j) Benue State - Peter Obi 41% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 36%.

(k) Nasarawa State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 36% and Peter Obi 39%.

(l) Taraba State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 36%, Peter Obi 34%, and Atiku Abubakar 30%.

Data Spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcoddwJ21tVzj9n0EtJgBPN-jrNWIPSzPp2ssxoC8os/edit?usp=sharing


Credit : Aderogba Otunla

I thought they said they don't believe in social media political analysis. Hahahaha obident ppl don digitalized them by force.

I think as it stands today, Atiku has the best chance of winning.

Emi lokan cannot beat Atiku in the north and PDP structure in south will help him with some votes. Peter Obi will win southern Nigeria, Atiku will win the north

This Sat is not the reality on ground.

khadaffi:


Even me self surprise with this kind yeye stat. After Peter Obi in Edo the second is going to be Atiku. This will be because of the governor having allied with Atiku. There is no BAT in Edo State. The only ones we have reside at kingsquare and only fly during the day. We have killed most of the bats in Edo State due to the large presence of skilled hunters.

The governor is a good friend of PO and was the first governor to admit the strength of the OBIdient movement. Believe me obaseki will be neutral but will rather focus on working against APC

khadaffi:


Even me self surprise with this kind yeye stat. After Peter Obi in Edo the second is going to be Atiku. This will be because of the governor having allied with Atiku. There is no BAT in Edo State. The only ones we have reside at kingsquare and only fly during the day. We have killed most of the bats in Edo State due to the large presence of skilled hunters.

Edo state is between PDP and APC strictly.

chigoizie7:


And you think it still remains the same?

I don't about other states but nothing will change in edo state. It is between PDP and APC.

Zeezenho:


Edo too don become dot to you abi.oga let me tell you Igbo man go pity you when you over blab,but edo man go treat your Bleep up.

Lol
Mu
Mu
And me no sabi treat fuçk up abi? Una mouth too much and that's why Una remain stagnant

einsteine:


That's not true.

In Presidential elections, APC has scored above 40% in the last two elections.

Then they were the party in power at state level but not now

pinkgoodies:


Yes he will win lagos. But margin will be small. Normal PDP vote of 2019 will be split. But none of APC vote will be touched. PO is playing spoiler to Atiku everywhere. Unless PO steps down for atiku.

PO has inherited PDPs votes in Lagos check where PDP votes come from in Lagos, it's mostly Igbo dominated areas and then with end SARS and massive voters registration and sensitization. PO will have a brighter chance in Lagos

BetterNija:
In most of the state on SW, Labour party will not have party agent ...
I still dey think... Who are the people that will be organising rally for Obi in SW ? I pity this people ...You're just fooling yourselves and given yourselves a false hope ..
Over 600,000 votes in Osun state, where their indigene is contesting for Govenrorship Election, labour Party didn't score up to 10,000 votes ...
What do u think it will bring the differences or changes then ?
When they have a direct contestant from the state , who happened to be their Son , they failed woefully, now a strange man from another region that they never supported Yoruba for once in their entire life , they will now vote for them ..
I say it again, in all SW, Obi can't get 150,000 votes ..
Let's wait and see.
No Govenrors..
No Senate...
No Rep ...
No LG exco..
No state exco
Who will represent and coordinate them ?
In my LG there's no single person contesting for House of Assembly under LP
Who will represent them ?You done build structure (Building ) on space ..

When buhari was getting 11 million votes which governor or senator delivered the votes for him.
PDP votes in Lagos has been inherited by PO and if there is a state he inherit in the SW believe it's Lagos

LegendHero:


If NC people get brain, they will know Tinubu is not Fulani.

So if I am going to use your analogy, then they better be scared of Atiku since he is another Fulani.

Maybe you forgot that Kogi, Kwara, Niger, & Nassarawa are also part of NC.

NC already know that Tinubu re-enforced the slaughtering of their people by re-enforcing failure Buhari into power.

Atiku will also lose in NC except Kogi and Niger state. Tinubu and Atiku will share Kwara while Peter Obi will clear the other states.

Only fools love a close friend of their killers. Tinubu is a close friend of Buhari.

Hdh

CoronaVirusRelo:
I agree with graphical depiction! And it says it all!

Bola Ahmed Okechukwu Tinubu is the next President!

Dreamers allover SW

ChangetheChange:
Atiku has this election secured.
Only Tinubu zombies are still hallucinating, believing and hoping Tinubu will win more votes than Atiku

I have no issues with Atiku or Obi winning.
But that bat Emi Lokan, God forbid bad thing!
After the current experiment with the dunce in Aso Rock, Nigerians will not allow another octogenarian that will spend most of his time in Europe for treatment be their president.

einsteine:


That's not true.

In Presidential elections, APC has scored above 40% in the last two elections.

Just comot the zero from your 40% and you have a more realistic number. APC can only win election with rigging which thankfully is almost coming to an end.

Angelfrost:


The way these people insult Edo people is ridiculous!

An average Edo person will vote for Tinubu on what grounds exactly?!!

Because the OP forget say Edo no be Lagos. Even Lagos don wise now.

samdaisi:
After election some obituary terrorist will be show way to lagoon by his Grace

Potential sniper drinker spotted!
Tomorrow now you will be posting here on Nairaland with fake moniker begging for money to eat claiming hunger dey whack you. But you are okay with electing the people that made your miserable life worse.

Oya na, kwantinue!

Themandator:



The era of writing result is gone forever... This is the era of accredited voters


Not registered voters


The coming election will throw up lots of surprises

That’s probably true.
But Kano and other Northern states still have lots of these Almajiri voters. I hope they will not be accredited as usual.

Freebills12:
[color=#000099][/color]

You based your analysis on party of the governor ruling each state. It's a gross mistake. Obi will get more votes in Edo, Rivers, Delta than what he will get in Ebonyi. This is not gubernatorial election.

As much as those BATstards don’t want to believe it, Obi is likely to win Lagos because of the make up of the real electorates comprising wise youths, educated people from SW and people from other states living in Lagos - not the usual noisemakers here on Nairaland. Obi and Atiku may not win Ogun but they will be close. Emi Lokan no go like am.

SW mumu don do for Tinubu matter.

sotall:


Who dash Emilokan 38% for Edo?

Don't just sit behind your keyboard and assume. Somebody did a research!

You want Obi as president, elections are not won online. Which study have you conducted that made you opine that Tinubu doesn't own Edo 38%?

In Buhari's voice, LNY.

CoronaVirusRelo:



Don’t mind them!

Cardiac arrest will hit many when results are been announced!

imagine giving labour good percentage in Lagos a state APC ll win with PDP getting a good votes too... Like you said results ll clear their anxiety