Before Obidients start throwing jabs at me, I'll urge that they go through my points dispassionately to see reason. I am from the middle belt. I have family members supporting Obi. Obidients should therefore know that that I have nothing personal against him.

I stay in the north, north west to be precise. Of all the political discourse, I haven't heard northerners lending their support to an Obi's candidacy. As a matter of fact, most of them aren't buying Tinubu's candidacy either. I have heard many of them saying "APC ends with Buhari. Never again will it happen to them." If you want to hear political discourse in the north, go to Mai shayi's (Tea Vendor) joints. These guys are more informed than an average southerner as far as politics is concerned.

Back to the topic. This is why a vote for an Obi is a vote for Tinubu:

1. Majority of Peter Obi's supporters were once Atiku's fans. As a matter of fact, most of them voted for Atiku in 2019. Now that they have brokert camp, they have rather reduced Atiku's votes – a move which Tinubu is well pleased with. Of course Tinubu knows that only an Atiku poses threat to his presidential ambition.

2. In as much as an Obi's candidacy is gaining a lot of waves in the social media, the train is rather coming late. If this ambition is anything to go by, it should have started since 2019. By now, the campaign train must have penetrated the core north where chunks of votes come. But as it is, Obi will only have to wait for 2027 to leave an imprint.

3. Labour Party's logo isn't design in such a way that a common man can identify with. Except for educated fellows, most people, especially the elderly, can't identify with it on the ballot. Unlike PDP and APC logos where you could easily tell an illiterate to check the box bearing umbrella or broom, that of labour party isn't realistic, and so Peter Obi will loose significant number of votes due to this factor.

4. The constitution provides that for a candidate to emerge winner, he must win at least 25% of the total vote cast, or 1/3 of the votes in 2/3 states of the Federation including FCT which is 24 states. To the Obidients, can they honestly say Obi will meet this requirement? If yes, which states?

5. Based on previous elections, the south eastern votes are often not as expected. This is not to say that the region can't produce significant number of votes, I for one believe that this is going to change with an Obi on the ballot, but the fact is that votes from Katsina or Kano often cover that of 3 or 4 states in the east. See, elections aren't won by
mere emotions, ethnic or primordial sentiments, they are won through empirical study, critical analysis and due diligence. If by any chance no significant votes do come from the east, you can see reason why Atiku is so confident of winning. It is because he knows majority of votes comes from his region. Whether you like it or not, regional politics is back and is now steering us in the face.

6. Structure is key to winning elections. I have heard many Obidients debating over this, but there's no two ways about it, you need concrete structure to win election in Nigeria. Maybe you don't understand what we mean by structure, let me break it down for you. If you have governors, senators and members of the federal house of reps contesting under your platform, you've got a structure. Even so, a party that has this structure in government before now has an edge. This is because they must have had a hold on their followers and can determine where the votes go. Whether we like it or not, PDP and APC have this on ground and may edge LP in that regard. Note that even in the south east, if Peter Obi wins, it means the state governors decided to work against PDP which I don't see them doing so. Working against PDP means ruining their chances. I give you a simple example, in 2015, many PDP parliamentarians from the north asked their followers to vote out Goodluck Jonathan. They taught only Jonathan will be affected but they too were voted out and a lot of them did not return to the national assembly. This is what will happen if PDP gubernatorial candidates/parliamentarians from the south east choose to work against PDP.

Finally, Obidients should note that a vote for an Obi will give an edge to Tinubu because it will reduce Atiku's chances. By not supporting PDP, Obidients are unconsciously brightening Tinubu's chances since the odds are obviously against Peter Obi. Tinubu is having a fill day seeing the crumbling of Atiku's support base. And if he can, he will support the Obidients so as to further meander Atiku's chances so he can emerge winner. Obi was Atiku's VP in 2019, what stop him from being his running mate yet again? An Igbo presidency is better achieved with a PDP than with an APC. Obidients, please shine your eyes!

they won't get the logic, bunch of dumbos

This one na PDP dog.
You will be shocked by what you will see next year.

First of all, you can't use voting pattern of previous elections to predict the next one, you know why? Nigeria usually suffers from extreme voter apathy. Only one in 10 Nigerians believed in voting, this gave room for politicians to employ all sorts of shenanigans to win votes. Politicians got away with a lot of things because the vast majority of citizens looked away and just didn't care enough. That is about to change.

Secondly, one can feel the energy of voting shifting from north to south. The north are usually those dedicated to voting because they felt aggrieved with Obasanjo and Jonathan's tenure and wanted to see their person rule but they have tasted it now and their regions have been completely battered.
Bandits have ravaged their lands badly. So one can feel the northern voting apathy brewing due to frustration Even though it's their person there meanwhile the southerners are now highly energized to go the polls.

So you can see the voting enthusiasm has shifted from north to south.

Op if your assertion is true that the northerners want to end APC with Buhari....then Obi has a good chance...all the northerners would need is a Peter Obi giving them promises of a new path.

Also Obi's supposed backers in the South are said to be mainly new voters who did not participate in the 2019 elections.....so the idea that they Atikulated previously isn't entirely true

I am not sure Tinubu is happy with Obi movement......the nation has branded Obi supporters "Obituary" and those who may have supported Tinubu in the south as the only southern candidates now have a choice of supporting Obi ....potentially reducing Tinubu's chances


Although Obi doesn't have a record to back his promises...he does come in as one who is not in the two major political party...hence the alternative candidate....

The National Assembly elections happening at thesame time as Presidential election will affect voting pattern and who will emerge winner...

The only obstacle any of the presidential candidates may have is INEC. If INEC is fair I think Obi can force a rerun if he gets his structure in place...but so far none of the big political weights have lined up behind him. I thought Wike would but not sure what game Wike is playing....Obi needs the push...his biggest push so far was Governor Obaseiki mentioning Obidient movement

1. Peter Obi Fans are not all Atiku Fans. There is great anger against Atiku, he is not supposed to bee on tbe ballot because it is the time of the South

2. While Planning is good, you need to understand that Obi is more insightful than you think, he will penetrate all over Nigeria before the election.

3. The Massive awareness with pictures carrying ObiDatti/ObiAhmed images alongside the labour party logo all over the con3 is creating much awareness that People will even vote LP thinking it is PDP for your claim of ignorance, it will be difficult for not very literate voters to know that Labour party is not PDP

4. Peter Obi will Win 25 States Hands down

This include 4 North Central States, 11 SS & SE states, 3 SW states and 2 North east (Gombe and Bauchi) States and 2 NW states

5. The South East will give the biggest votes on next years election and those who intend to instigate violence in order to suppress votes should hhave a rethink.

6. If its about structure, you should knoe that ApC had a weak structure when they won the election, till date ApC in my opinion is not well structured it is a rudderless ship heading only to Golgotha.

I am from Delta state, an Isoko man Born and raised in the North and I tell you, I will never vote Atiku/Okowa instead will vote Omo Agege the Apc man

This permutations are in the past, not for the future.
Events change people's perception about political leaders. The poverty and insecurity is what will determine how Nigerians will vote in 2023.

Btw The whole write-up is based on experiences from the past which cannot be a yardstick to predict 2023 Elections.

I advise the OP to stop discussing too much with Mai Shayi as everyone of them has only one vote

You're entitled to your opinion

See an absolute rubbish poorly written by an Atiku supporter.

I didn't bother to read your lengthy post because the title and first few lines showed you're grossly uninformed.

Atiku has already penetrated the NW and they're going to vote for him far more than Tinubu. All the defections from APC to PDP and NNPP in that region is particularly against Tinubu. Even the body language of Hausas and Fulanis that dominate NW indicate they're not interested in Tinubu. Forget about what their APC governors are saying in the open, what they're doing in secret is more important. Already, they promised to hold a 2 million man march for Tinubu in Kano but they abandoned it on Saturday, after all the publicity.

Rather you should say that a vote for Tinubu in the North is a vote for Obi because he would neutralize Atiku's votes which gives Obi the advantage.

Already, Obi has more advantage than either Atiku or Tinubu because he has 2 regions on lockdown i.e. SE and SS and also has most of Northern Christians behind him. Obi would also get significant votes from Lagos, Abuja and other major cities. Majority of Nigerian youths are also backing Obi as well as the organized Labour.

Obi is your next president, so get used to it and stop fooling yourself!

So should Obedient leave Peter Obi and support Atiku so that Tinubu would not have a better chance?...

Let me tell you how this will play out,

BAT will win the Southwest
PO will win the Southeast
AA will win the Northeast ( might loss Borno because of Shettima)
Now these are their Region.

The South-South will be shared between AA and Peter Obi. With Atiku Winning Delta, Rivers ( The crisis with Wike will be settled, Wike can't leave PDP, PDP made him and he will never allow the State to fall to an opposition Party ) and Akwa Ibom. PO will win Edo,Bayelsa and Cross River. Nothing for Tinubu in the SS.

The NorthWest will be shared between AA,BAT and Kwankwaso. Kwankwaso will win Kano and Jigawa because of state proximity and the influence Kano has on Jigawa. Atiku will win Sokoto ( Tambuwas State) and Gombe While Tinubu will win Kastina and Kaduna will be shared between Tinubu and OBi ( Dattis Influence).

The NorthCentral is the most unpredictable region in Nigeria but I do believe they will vote along religious and tribal line. PO will win Benue, plateau and Nasarawa( because of recent happenings). Tinubu will win Kwara and Kogi while Atiku will win Niger

Abuja will be shared between AA,PO and BAT.

Kwankwaso will come a distance 4th.

That's my submission as at today, things changes and time goes on.

KMJY:
Before Obidients start throwing jabs at me, I'll urge that they go through my points dispassionately to see reason. I am from the middle belt. I have family members supporting Obi. Obidients should therefore know that that I have nothing personal against him.

I stay in the north, north west to be precise. Of all the political discourse, I haven't heard northerners lending their support to an Obi's candidacy. As a matter of fact, most of them aren't buying Tinubu's candidacy either. I have heard many of them saying "APC ends with Buhari. Never again will it happen to them." If you want to hear political discourse in the north, go to Mai shayi's (Tea Vendor) joints. These guys are more informed that an average southerner as far as politics is concerned.

I stop reading the bullshit after the bolded

Reading things like this gets me more determined to push Obi and LP.

IgOga:
Op if your assertion is true that the northerners want to end APC with Buhari....then Obi has a good chance...all the northerners would need is a Peter Obi giving them promises of a new path.

Also Obi's supposed backers in the South are said to be mainly new voters who did not participate in the 2019 elections.....so the idea that they Atikulated previously isn't entirely true

I am not sure Tinubu is happy with Obi movement......the nation has branded Obi supporters "Obituary" and those who may have supported Tinubu in the south as the only southern candidates now have a choice of supporting Obi ....potentially reducing Tinubu's chances


Although Obi doesn't have a record to back his promises...he does come in as one who is not in the two major political party...hence the alternative candidate....

The National Assembly elections happening at thesame time as Presidential election will affect voting pattern and who will emerge winner...

The only obstacle any of the presidential candidates may have is INEC. If INEC is fair I think Obi can force a rerun if he gets his structure in place...but so far none of the big political weights have lined up behind him. I thought Wike would but not sure what game Wike is playing....Obi needs the push...his biggest push so far was Governor Obaseiki mentioning Obidient movement

Wike mentioning peter obi will be a serious lock down for him in Rivers like never seen before OBI needs to pay WIKE another visit, WIKE should help his brother for once and become a godfather in Labor party

So mai shayi gave you inspiration for this nonsense?

Your analysis lacks historical evidence, buhari has always won NE and NW but lost the general election, obi has the SE and SS as block votes NC is tilting towards obi now, Lagos will be divided between tinubu and obi in 50, 50 fashion, as the new registered voters in that state is obviously not for tinubu. Obi will win osun state and get more than 40% in oyo. Kano will be divided so will katsina and obi will pick more than 40% from kaduna. So if you think I'm won't win, get ready. By the time campaign starts you will see what we youths will do. It's time to revenge what happened during the endsars protest

I think obi will win rivers with a landslide even without wike. Wike is fighting with atiku and am sure pride will not allow him forgive atiku. Wike can't support tinubu as he can't sell him to his people. Wike best bet is to support obi and the worse he can do is to be neutral which is still good for obi

Bonesbreaker:
Wike mentioning peter obi will be a serious lock down for him in Rivers like never seen before OBI needs to pay WIKE another visit, WIKE should help his brother for once and become a godfather in Labor party

I think the op has a point

Qtrpst4:
I think obi will win rivers with a landslide even without wike. Wike is fighting with atiku and am sure pride will not allow him forgive atiku. Wike can't support tinubu as he can't sell him to his people. Wike best bet is to support obi and the worse he can do is to be neutral which is still good for obi

let's be watching if WIKe support peter obi crazy then is official SS is totally lock down for peter obi that factor alone will sill it up completely and Wike will be a god father attending his political goal also getting a ministry position when obi wins can he support obi cant say but if does so his more at a gain just to prove a point to PDP and APC his a tiger

4reala:
I think the op has a point

him no get point anything

A vote for Atiku is a vote for Tinubu/APC.

Remember that obj can just put a call to wike and he will have no choice. Another thing is that I thing even without wike, obi has a large chunk of vote in rivers and I mean more than 50% without wike, remember amaechi won't be campaigning for tinubu because of his MM ticket which he has already said, do you on own how painful it feels to be betrayed by your friend? That's how wike feels and if he is not important, pdp won't be struggling to appease him

Bonesbreaker:
let's be watching if WIKe support peter obi crazy then is official SS is totally lock down for peter obi that factor alone will sill it up completely and Wike will be a god father attending his political goal also getting a ministry position when obi wins can he support obi cant say but if does so his more at a gain just to prove a point to PDP and APC his a tiger

Trash!
So we should vote Atiku? Another Fulani Muslim after 8 years of a wicked Fulani Muslim?

donjazet:
This one na PDP dog.
You will be shocked by what you will see next year.

First of all, you can't use voting pattern of previous elections to predict the next one, you know why? Nigeria usually suffers from extreme voter apathy. Only one in 10 Nigerians believed in voting, this gave room for politicians to employ all sorts of shenanigans to win votes. Politicians got away with a lot of things because the vast majority of citizens looked away and just didn't care enough. That is about to change.

Secondly, one can feel the energy of voting shifting from north to south. The north are usually those dedicated to voting because they felt aggrieved with Obasanjo and Jonathan's tenure and wanted to see their person rule but they have tasted it now and their regions have been completely battered.
Bandits have ravaged their lands badly. So one can feel the northern voting apathy brewing due to frustration Even though it's their person there meanwhile the southerners are now highly energized to go the polls.

So you can see the voting enthusiasm has shifted from north to south.

.


You got him...

Bonesbreaker:
him no get point anything

Then counter my points with facts and figures. You people are just sentimental and delusional. If you claim to be against Tinubu's Muslim-Muslim ticket but aren't supporting Atiku so as to forestall this, then you are invariably supporting Tinubu coz Obi can't win #bittertruth

donjazet:
This one na PDP dog.
You will be shocked by what you will see next year.

First of all, you can't use voting pattern of previous elections to predict the next one, you know why? Nigeria usually suffers from extreme voter apathy. Only one in 10 Nigerians believed in voting, this gave room for politicians to employ all sorts of shenanigans to win votes. Politicians got away with a lot of things because the vast majority of citizens looked away and just didn't care enough. That is about to change.

Secondly, one can feel the energy of voting shifting from north to south. The north are usually those dedicated to voting because they felt aggrieved with Obasanjo and Jonathan's tenure and wanted to see their person rule but they have tasted it now and their regions have been completely battered.
Bandits have ravaged their lands badly. So one can feel the northern voting apathy brewing due to frustration Even though it's their person there meanwhile the southerners are now highly energized to go the polls.

So you can see the voting enthusiasm has shifted from north to south.

What people are saying about you lot is true. Once someone confront you with facts, you resort to insult when you have no counter argument. I expect you to argue intelligently if indeed you have any fact to present, hell no, you rather resort to insult. Keep insulting until the reality dawns on you

KMJY:
Then counter my points with facts and figures. You people are just sentimental and delusional. If you claim to be against Tinubu's Muslim-Muslim ticket but aren't supporting Atiku so as to forestall this, then you are invariably supporting Tinubu coz Obi can't win #bittertruth

# i leave you till Feb 2023 simple

Qtrpst4:
Remember that obj can just put a call to wike and he will have no choice. Another thing is that I thing even without wike, obi has a large chunk of vote in rivers and I mean more than 50% without wike, remember amaechi won't be campaigning for tinubu because of his MM ticket which he has already said, do you on own how painful it feels to be betrayed by your friend? That's how wike feels and if he is not important, pdp won't be struggling to appease him

i feel it will still be hard for wike to support obi unless an offer is giving to him which will be appealing to him

Pride won't allow wike support atiku and he will be too scared of his people to support tinubu, supporting obi is his best bet even without an offer.


Obi no dey give shi shi

Bonesbreaker:
i feel it will still be hard for wike to support obi unless an offer is giving to him which will be appealing to him

KMJY:

What people are saying about you lot is true. Once someone confront you with facts, you resort to insult when you have no counter argument. I expect you to argue intelligently if indeed you have any fact to present, hell no, you rather resort to insult. Keep insulting until the reality dawns on you

You're a big foool for saying this. Didn't you read his write-up ?

How did he insult you there? You expect everybody to agree to the rubbish you typed there?

KMJY:

What people are saying about you lot is true. Once someone confront you with facts, you resort to insult when you have no counter argument. I expect you to argue intelligently if indeed you have any fact to present, hell no, you rather resort to insult. Keep insulting until the reality dawns on you

KMJY:
Before Obidients start throwing jabs at me, I'll urge that they go through my points dispassionately to see reason. I am from the middle belt. I have family members supporting Obi. Obidients should therefore know that that I have nothing personal against him.

I stay in the north, north west to be precise. Of all the political discourse, I haven't heard northerners lending their support to an Obi's candidacy. As a matter of fact, most of them aren't buying Tinubu's candidacy either. I have heard many of them saying "APC ends with Buhari. Never again will it happen to them." If you want to hear political discourse in the north, go to Mai shayi's (Tea Vendor) joints. These guys are more informed than an average southerner as far as politics is concerned.

Back to the topic. This is why a vote for an Obi is a vote for Tinubu:

1. Majority of Peter Obi's supporters were once Atiku's fans. As a matter of fact, most of them voted for Atiku in 2019. Now that they have brokert camp, they have rather reduced Atiku's votes – a move which Tinubu is well pleased with. Of course Tinubu knows that only an Atiku poses threat to his presidential ambition.

2. In as much as an Obi's candidacy is gaining a lot of waves in the social media, the train is rather coming late. If this ambition is anything to go by, it should have started since 2019. By now, the campaign train must have penetrated the core north where chunks of votes come. But as it is, Obi will only have to wait for 2027 to leave an imprint.

3. Labour Party's logo isn't design in such a way that a common man can identify with. Except for educated fellows, most people, especially the elderly, can't identify with it on the ballot. Unlike PDP and APC logos where you could easily tell an illiterate to check the box bearing umbrella or broom, that of labour party isn't realistic, and so Peter Obi will loose significant number of votes due to this factor.

4. The constitution provides that for a candidate to emerge winner, he must win at least 25% of the total vote cast, or 1/3 of the votes in 2/3 states of the Federation including FCT which is 24 states. To the Obidients, can they honestly say Obi will meet this requirement? If yes, which states?

5. Based on previous elections, the south eastern votes are often not as expected. This is not to say that the region can't produce significant number of votes, I for one believe that this is going to change with an Obi on the ballot, but the fact is that votes from Katsina or Kano often cover that of 3 or 4 states in the east. See, elections aren't won by
mere emotions, ethnic or primordial sentiments, they are won through empirical study, critical analysis and due diligence. If by any chance no significant votes do come from the east, you can see reason why Atiku is so confident of winning. It is because he knows majority of votes comes from his region. Whether you like it or not, regional politics is back and is now steering us in the face.

6. Structure is key to winning elections. I have heard many Obidients debating over this, but there's no two ways about it, you need concrete structure to win election in Nigeria. Maybe you don't understand what we mean by structure, let me break it down for you. If you have governors, senators and members of the federal house of reps contesting under your platform, you've got a structure. Even so, a party that has this structure in government before now has an edge. This is because they must have had a hold on their followers and can determine where the votes go. Whether we like it or not, PDP and APC have this on ground and may edge LP in that regard. Note that even in the south east, if Peter Obi wins, it means the state governors decided to work against PDP which I don't see them doing so. Working against PDP means ruining their chances. I give you a simple example, in 2015, many PDP parliamentarians from the north asked their followers to vote out Goodluck Jonathan. They taught only Jonathan will be affected but they too were voted out and a lot of them did not return to the national assembly. This is what will happen if PDP gubernatorial candidates/parliamentarians from the south east choose to work against PDP.

Finally, Obidients should note that a vote for an Obi will give an edge to Tinubu because it will reduce Atiku's chances. By not supporting PDP, Obidients are unconsciously brightening Tinubu's chances since the odds are obviously against Peter Obi. Tinubu is having a fill day seeing the crumbling of Atiku's support base. And if he can, he will support the Obidients so as to further meander Atiku's chances so he can emerge winner. Obi was Atiku's VP in 2019, what stop him from being his running mate yet again? An Igbo presidency is better achieved with a PDP than with an APC. Obidients, please shine your eyes!

my brother their is no cause for alarm

Atiku can get at least 40% in all region that is the game changer

Whether they split votes from him in SS/SE he is still going to balance it in the south west by going 40%

Infact it's not like obi would win all states in SS/SE, atiku would win more than him in SS that have a VP in PDP

Obi can not cross SS/SE they are talking of middle belt as if all parties won't share it

Whatever deficit we get from SS/SE sharing states equally or beating apc in NW would give us edge

A vote for Atiku is a vote for Apc
He was part of the people shouting “APC,change Jonathan”

Wike is already working for APC. Few months or weeks ago, EFCC was hounding the Rivers PDP gubernatorial candidate and he was on the run. Suddenly, he’s back attending functions publicly with all freedom. Wike has done his negotiations already.