₦airaland Forum

ItsTutsi:
It's between Atiku and Tinubu, kwankwasso although popular, lack of structure and wide spread support base will be an issue

But you said the north would decide, Tinubu is not from the North.

Yes, there are 13 APC govs in north working for Tinubu, that's at least 40%

tctrills:
But you said the north would decide, Tinubu is not from the North.

ItsTutsi:
Yes, there are 13 APC govs in north working for Tinubu, that's at least 40%

Are you suggesting that Atiku would win in Oyo and Osun they have pdp govs

ItsTutsi:
Lol there was never elections in Nigeria but selection. Even Yar'adua was shocked by his victory that he openly said "election that brought him was highly rigged"

Furthermore, all previous elections that Buhari lost, northerner elites never supported him, as they were scared if him just like how south were.. I'm sure u saw the result when they decided to support him in 2015

No presidential candidate can win elections without winning a region in the south ditto the north. Do you know where we hit you guys hard? The north central. So if a candidate wins most part of the south, all he needs do is win 3 to 4 states in the NC plus Abuja and he is home.

ItsTutsi:
Lol there was never elections in Nigeria but selection. Even Yar'adua was shocked by his victory that he openly said "election that brought him was highly rigged"

Furthermore, all previous elections that Buhari lost, northerner elites never supported him, as they were scared if him just like how south were.. I'm sure u saw the result when they decided to support him in 2015

He won because tinubu brought SW to him. If that didn’t happen GEJ would have thrashed him

Not really, but he shall get some significant votes, SW voting pattern seems to vary from other region.. while the north follow who their leaders tell them to

tctrills:
Are you suggesting that Atiku would win in Oyo and Osun they have pdp govs

Hehehe! Emilokan in the mud. Oti lule.

Yes of course both north and south will need one region out of their geographical region to win.. however, a northerner is guaranteed a block votes from the north, unlike a southern candidate

And don't forget, it's not like Buhari won overwhelmingly in SW, it was the block votes from the north that made for the shortfall in SW... That's the block votes GEJ lacked in south

BlazinGlory40:
He won because tinubu brought SW to him. If that didn’t happen GEJ would have thrashed him

asanausana91:
there is law that says you must get 25% of 24 states.

OBJ and GEJ didn’t get 25% in 11 out of the 13 states in NE and NW. another fact.

ItsTutsi:
Yes of course both north and south will need one region out of their geographical region to win.. however, a northerner is guaranteed a block votes from the north, unlike a southern candidate

And don't forget, it's not like Buhari won overwhelmingly in SW, it was the block votes from the north that made for the shortfall in SW... That's the block votes GEJ lacked in south

Didn’t buhari get bloc votes in the far north the times he lost? Use your google.

ItsTutsi:
Not really, but he shall get some significant votes, SW voting pattern seems to vary from other region.. while the north follow who their leaders tell them to

Explain. He cant win in Osun and Oyo but Tinubu would win in Kano and Kaduna? Do you have any history to back this up or is this just your wish or opinion?

Currently no candidate can win most part of the south, SW is for Tinubu, while SE/SS is for PO and Atiku

Even if PO or Atiku should win by 70% in that region(which is impossible), there will still need to win convincingly in NC, which is impossible

BlazinGlory40:
No presidential candidate can win elections without winning a region in the south ditto the north. Do you know where we hit you guys hard? The north central. So if a candidate wins most part of the south, all he needs do is win 3 to 4 states in the NC plus Abuja and he is home.

Lol I don't think there is a place I said he will win kano and Kaduna(it would be shared between kwankwasso and Atiku), but Tinubu will definitely get at least 40% in 19 states of norther region

Northerner masses follow who their elites tell them too!!

Forget about ALL that burning of broom ur seeing in urban areas, most of them are clout chasers and having fun.. if u enter rural areas and villages in the north, where 70% voting it's done, I'll know most of them only know APC and PDP

tctrills:
Explain. He cant win in Osun and Oyo but Tinubu would win in Kano and Kaduna? Do you have any history to back this up or is this just your wish or opinion?

Yes, but he didn't win any region in the south, hence, my argument that no matter the block votes u get from ur region, u still need one from another geographical region

BlazinGlory40:
Didn’t buhari get bloc votes in the far north the times he lost? Use your google.

ItsTutsi:
Lol I don't think there is a place I said he will win kano and Kaduna(it would be shared between kwankwasso and Atiku), but Tinubu will definitely get at least 40% in 19 states of norther region

Northerner masses follow who their elites tell them too!!

Forget about ALL that burning of broom ur seeing in urban areas, most of them are clout chasers and having fun.. if u enter rural areas and villages in the north, where 70% voting it's done, I'll know most of them only know APC and PDP

Now you are confusing things. If the Northern mass follows their elite then he should be getting 75%, not 40%. Please tell us how you do your calculations

Don't forget sons of the region are in the contest too, so definitely sentiment will have a play.. there are significant Christians in the north too, that's another factor

tctrills:
Now you are confusing things. If the Northern mass follows their elite then he should be getting 75%, not 40%. Please tell us how you do your calculations

ItsTutsi:
Don't forget sons of the region are in the contest too, so definitely sentiment will have a play.. there are significant Christians in the north too, that's another factor

It's clear that you have no means of measuring these things. You are just doing guesswork. But it's ok what do we know until next year?

asanausana91:
only one state in the north will cover all your 5 inconsequential States. You either work for Atiku or you lose everything.

Loose everything!!!!

Imagine the effrontery!!!

What did we loose in 2015 and 2019?
Calling a part of the country inconsequential shows how divisive you are, but it's not surprising to me.

Of course it's just guesswork, I'm not a prophet, foreteller or a soutsayer.. It's just the reality on ground in the north

That's why u keep seeing cross carpenting between APC and PDP

tctrills:
It's clear that you have no means of measuring these things. You are just doing guesswork. But it's ok what do we know until next year?

ItsTutsi:
Of course it's just guesswork, I'm not a prophet, foreteller or a soutsayer.. It's just the reality on ground in the north

That's why u keep seeing cross carpenting between APC and PDP

This is pure speculation and it's not based on precedence.

Every permutation is speculative, or has there ever been a presidential election whereby Atiku, Tinubu, PO and kwankwasso contested before

tctrills:
This is pure speculation and it's not based on precedence.

ItsTutsi:
Every permutation is speculative, or has there ever been a presidential election whereby Atiku, Tinubu, PO and kwankwasso contested before

But at least it should be based on some precedence.

So you don't believe there is an advantage to Tinubu having 13 APC govs in north?

tctrills:
But at least it should be based on some precedence.

ItsTutsi:
So you don't believe there is an advantage to Tinubu having 13 APC govs in north?

No I don't. PDP had governors in many of the states Buhari won in 2015. Browse Jigawa. Patrick Ibrahim Yakowa was the PDP gov of Kaduna in the 2015 election. Where is your precedence?

1- both jigawa and Kaduna are both core norther states, there is no way buhari could have lost it..It's just like saying PO will lose Imo Ebonyi because the govs are APC

2- the clamour at that time was that the presidency should be zoned to north

tctrills:
No I don't. PDP had governors in many of the states Buhari won in 2015. Browse Jigawa. Patrick Ibrahim Yakowa was the PDP gov of Kaduna in the 2015 election. Where is your precedence?

ItsTutsi:
1- both jigawa and Kaduna are both core norther states, there is no way buhari could have lost it..It's just like saying PO will lose Imo Ebonyi because the govs are APC

2- the clamour at that time was that the presidency should be zoned to north

These states voted for Buhari in almost every election since 2003.

It's good you know that core northern states would not vote for a southerner even if their governors are in the same parties. Now apply that to 2023. Why would the people of Kano, Kaduna, or Kastina vote for APC?
It's ok to speculate but you have to look to the past to project the future.

There is a tsunami coming to Nigeria in 2023.

Nigerianization:
Loose everything!!!!

Imagine the effrontery!!!

What did we loose in 2015 and 2019?
Calling a part of the country inconsequential shows how divisive you are, but it's not surprising to me.

Buhari is the most popular and accepted politician in the north while Atiku is second. Now that Buhari is not contesting, Atiku will win all the northern votes.

BlazinGlory40:
OBJ and GEJ didn’t get 25% in 11 out of the 13 states in NE and NW. another fact.

only Google will save you from this unnecessary arguments. Go and check the 1999 and 2011 election results.

asanausana91:
only Google will save you from this unnecessary arguments. Go and check the 1999 and 2011 election results.

I am talking about 2003 that buhari ran against OBJ. Why did you skip that one? Jonathan lost NW and NE and still won buhari in 2011. What’s there to argue?

ItsTutsi:
Yes, but he didn't win any region in the south, hence, my argument that no matter the block votes u get from ur region, u still need one from another geographical region

And the NC states of plateau, benue, nasarawa including abuja swings the election. Oh don’t forget taraba too...

BlazinGlory40:
I am talking about 2003 that buhari ran against OBJ. Why did you skip that one? Jonathan lost NW and NE and still won buhari in 2011. What’s there to argue?

i don't understand what you are saying, why are you confusing yourself?
No president will be declared winner if he did not get 25% of 24 states of this country. They will go into rerun if that happen.
Gej or obj don't need to win north west or north east all what the needs is 25%.