₦airaland Forum

Penguin2:
Very very realistic.

No emotions

No exaggerations

Garfield1 u have your answer

This guy mindlessly supported atiku in 2019.when atiku started failing,he cried fowl.do not be deceived by failed analysts.like I said,whoever wins north central wins.obi needs to penetrate nasarawa,kogi,niger etc..

Penguin2:
Lol

They don’t know what is going on

My brother,you need to be realistic.dont get your hopes high.obi can win delta but since okowa is from there,he will be desperate.keep it at 30%

Penguin2:
Obi will win Southsouth hands down.

Nothing like equal sharing of votes

He can't win ss hands down.he can win but not hands down.he can't even win bayelsa and isn't doing too well in aks

Let's wait and see .. Nigerians are very much ready to make a statement with their Presidential Votes. Some states are ready to retain the party at their state level BUT would make a clear and convincing STAND with their vote at the presidential level. Like Osun State already has a PDP candidate and you are telling me APC will win Osun at the presidential level ?

River State as a PDP state is gonna win her state for her Governor but won't be winning it at the presidential level as it stands today..
Anyways, weytin I know.

garfield1:
Oga,they won't share anything oh.as igbos will vote obi,yorubas will vote asiwaju

SaiOba:
Let's wait and see .. Nigerians are very much ready to make a statement with their Presidential Votes. Some states are ready to retain the party at their state level BUT would make a clear and convincing STAND with their vote at the presidential level. Like Osun State already has a PDP candidate and you are telling me APC will win Osun at the presidential level ?

River State as a PDP state is gonna win her state for her Governor but won't be winning it at the presidential level as it stands today..
Anyways, weytin I know.

Why will the osun people abandon their son tinubu and vote for another northerner? How you they reason? Adeleke even won narrowly,it was very difficult.you already know that wike is against atiku plus rivers people won't vote a northerner again...
Dont trust voters.they made noise in 2019 but still voted buhari

garfield1:
This guy mindlessly supported atiku in 2019.when atiku started failing,he cried fowl.do not be deceived by failed analysts.like I said,whoever wins north central wins.obi needs to penetrate nasarawa,kogi,niger etc..

Who he supported in 2019 is needless right now; I agreed with him because what he said is reality.

It’s just like when we were predicting Edo and Anambra elections and you people were here arguing with us; telling us about the bigwigs that have defected to APC who will help APC win the guber but we, who understood the local dynamics, were telling you people that those bigwigs are useless but una no believe us until it happened.

Same thing await you guys in 2023.

Imagine having doubts if Obi will win South Southsouth.

mrvitalis:
In 3 months Peter obi has moved from he can't win a ward to being in contention to win ....lol

Wait till campaign starts ...35% for obi in the south west is very very possible ....30% in Kaduna and taraba sure like mad ... wining Benue ,pleatue ,and Abuja is realistic

The fact obi has Edo locked down is the most shocking trust me ...how Edo vote is similar to how ondo votes too

Lagos is a possibility based on so many factors

35% in SW out of the 100%
so u all feel Tinubu and Atiku will take average 32% each?

U all feel they will share votes in northern state but believes he will take 70% in SS.

I guess, e never clear for ur eyes say the contest is between 3 parties and not two again whereas PDP and APC are the most popular in the region that produces the bulk votes.

The only place PO will win convincingly is SE and lets assume he is as popular as u claim in SS, then this two region produced just 5m total votes out of the 26m votes in 2019.

If he was popular enough to take 3m from these two regions, which is about 60% then u should know that the rest 21m votes will not be in his favour.

garfield1:
Oga,they won't share anything oh.as igbos will vote obi,yorubas will vote asiwaju

Very simple
Idk why obidients like giving themselves false hope.
A candidate that none of his governors are supporting. What a candidate

garfield1:
My brother,you need to be realistic.dont get your hopes high.obi can win delta but since okowa is from there,he will be desperate.keep it at 30%

Realism is my first name.

I’m always realistic and you know it.

We are telling you facts. There’s nothing Okowa can affect right now except he would be pointing a gun at people and forcing them to vote for PDP.

Nasarawa State Governor would have believed you if you had said this 3 months ago but not today. Umahi thought so too but came to reality some couple of weeks back.. He knows the APC isn't winning his state but chose to be diplomatic with the statement he made after his visit to PMB.

garfield1:

Obi can't get nasarawa

garfield1:
He can't win ss hands down.he can win but not hands down.he can't even win bayelsa and isn't doing too well in aks

He won't even win SS but will put up a good showing
This election my predication as of today because we're still months away is tinubu to win. Atiku 2nd and obi 3rd

Penguin2:
Who he supported in 2019 is needless right now; I agreed with him because what he said is reality.

It’s just like when we were predicting Edo and Anambra elections and you people were here arguing with us; telling us about the bigwigs that have defected to APC who will help APC win the guber but we, who understood the local dynamics, were telling you people that those bigwigs are useless but una no believe us until it happened.

Same thing await you guys in 2023.

Imagine having doubts if Obi will win South Southsouth.

Ss is my region,a lot here do not like igbos if I must tell you the truth.the only state obi is sure of is edo for now.he hasn't penetrated the rural areas of crs.whatever happens,he will do well.
National elections are different from state polls.we were all joking in anambra,it is always apga through and through except for nass.Edo is always a difficult place just like the south west.based on reality on ground,obaseki should have lost...we didn't realize that some people in apc were supporting him plus the bvas helped him...
Actually,bigwigs matter.you saw how oshiomhole delivered his area.even though obaseki won,it was a tightly contested poll...even in osun,bigwigs helped adeleke to victory which might be short lived sha.in crs,hon Daniel asuquo is the one bankrolling labour party.in benue,Herman hembe is there.in almost all states now,lp have bigwigs from apc and pdp

Norwichsailor:
He won't even win SS but will put up a good showing
This election my predication as of today because we're still months away is tinubu to win. Atiku 2nd and obi 3rd

He can win ss but narrowly.he has edo and will likely take crs and rivers.he is getting close in aks

Baba, make we comot for hia.. E be like say garfield1 and him paddy dem intentionally open this thread so as to source better info for their principal

Penguin2:
Realism is my first name.

I’m always realistic and you know it.

We are telling you facts. There’s nothing Okowa can affect right now except he would be pointing a gun at people and forcing them to vote for PDP.

SaiOba:
Nasarawa State Governor would have believed you if you had said this 3 months ago but not today. Umahi thought so too but came to reality some couple of weeks back.. He knows the APC isn't winning his state but chose to be diplomatic with the statement he made after his visit to PMB.

Oga forget about nasarawa,labour can't win there.highest they will get is 25%.ebonyi is igboland so they will automatically vote obi.apc is not planning to win ebonyi but to come closely behind obi

SaiOba:
Nasarawa State Governor would have believed you if you had said this 3 months ago but not today. Umahi thought so too but came to reality some couple of weeks back.. He knows the APC isn't winning his state but chose to be diplomatic with the statement he made after his visit to PMB.

APC knows they can't win SS and SE
the goal is to reduce the margin of PDP winning there, obi is already doing that job and by the time they roll out resources , the problem is fighting atiku in the North while tinubu will win the SW convincingly, at this point Tinubu is a clear favourite. It should be atiku but he is not a serious human being

Penguin2:
Realism is my first name.

I’m always realistic and you know it.

We are telling you facts. There’s nothing Okowa can affect right now except he would be pointing a gun at people and forcing them to vote for PDP.

Okowa has the resources to do that.it is how pdp rigs the creeks.he just has to deliver delta same way shettima wi deliver borno

garfield1:
He can win ss but narrowly.he has edo and will likely take crs and rivers.he is getting close in aks

Bro I'm telling you obi won't win SS. Mark this post

garfield1:
Okowa has the resources to do that.it is how pdp rigs the creeks.he just has to deliver delta same way shettima wi deliver borno

After getting into a fight with ibori? Let him rig the creeks lets see

OMG! Bro, you mean Tinubu will win Lagos, Oyo, Ondo, Osun, Ogun State convincingly?... I no follow put Ekiti o but...
ISSORITE!

Norwichsailor:
APC knows they can't win SS and SE
the goal is to reduce the margin of PDP winning there, obi is already doing that job and by the time they roll out resources , the problem is fighting atiku in the North while tinubu will win the SW convincingly, at this point Tinubu is a clear favourite. It should be atiku but he is not a serious human being

Baba, So Who is winning SS convincingly then ?

Norwichsailor:
Bro I'm telling you obi won't win SS. Mark this post

SaiOba:
OMG! Bro, you mean Tinubu will win Lagos, Oyo, Ondo, Osun, Ogun State convincingly?... I no follow put Ekiti o but...
ISSORITE!

I school in ekiti state FYI.
the only place that will be hard for tinubu is lagos because its a very mixed city.
The Yorubas will support their own on Feb 23
It's quite unfair for you to know igbos will support obi fully and maybe atiku will collect small votes with nothing for Tinubu in the SE but somehow expect Yorubas of the SW not to stand fully behind their own, its really really a clown way of thinking. Me im from Akwa-ibom and PDP is winning Akwa-ibom with a slim margin with obi coming 2nd and apc 3rd
Since atiku doesn't want to do the right thing we will help him loose the election

SaiOba:
Baba, So Who is winning SS convincingly then ?

No one is winning it convincingly.
Pdp will win with a slim margin with obi digging deep to come 2nd and APC getting their required 25percent in peace. Its good to hope but I'm first a realist before hoping

SaiOba:
Baba, So Who is winning SS convincingly then ?

SS cannot be decided yet.

but nobody is winning it convincinly.
What we know is that Obi will loose the north convincinly and that is where 65% of the votes is coming from using 2019 as a case study

The Obi stronghold is just SE and lets give him SS as part of our benevolence. the total votes from this two region is just 20% of the total votes

so if he wins all 20% and take just 5% from the north. Atiku and Tinubu will still collect average of 37% from total votes

Michelle70:
Northwest alone gave a total of 8.2 votes in 2019.

Using 2019 as a case study.
Northern votes of 17m was almost twice the southern votes of 9m.

If APC and PDP take 7m each from the north and give Obi 3m, which is
APC 7m
PDP 7m
LP 3m
where Obi wan get 4million to balance up?
knowing that Tinubu is sure of another 2m from the entire south
with this, Tinubu is 6m more than Obi, and since taking 2m from the 9m southern votes, Obi and Atiku will struggle for the remaining 7m votes, and if Obi is as popular as u all claim and collect 4m and gives Atiku 2m
it will be
APC =9m
PDP =9m
LP =8m
The race is between APC and PDP

Politics isnt bu emotions but calculating how to win

Tinubu and which south?.APC with it's Muslim Muslim ticket will not be able to secure even 10% in any state of the SS and SE dream on

Michelle70:
SS cannot be decided yet.

but nobody is winning it convincinly.
What we know is that Obi will loose the north convincinly and that is where 65% of the votes is coming from using 2019 as a case study

The Obi stronghold is just SE and lets give him SS as part of our benevolence. the total votes from this two region is just 20% of the total votes

so if he wins all 20% and take just 5% from the north. Atiku and Tinubu will still collect average of 37% from total votes

Apt analyses ikpa
Without sentiment or emotion
Just logic and fact

kcnwaigbo:
Tinubu and which south?.APC with it's Muslim Muslim ticket will not be able to secure even 10% in any state of the SS and SE dream on

25percent isn't hard and that's all apc needs

I'll

Michelle70:
SS cannot be decided yet.

but nobody is winning it convincinly.
What we know is that Obi will loose the north convincinly and that is where 65% of the votes is coming from using 2019 as a case study

The Obi stronghold is just SE and lets give him SS as part of our benevolence. the total votes from this two region is just 20% of the total votes

so if he wins all 20% and take just 5% from the north. Atiku and Tinubu will still collect average of 37% from total votes

Obi will win the NC and secure appreciable votes in Kaduna, Taraba,Bauchi and Adamawa.

He will lose the North but not as much as you think

Norwichsailor:
After getting into a fight with ibori? Let him rig the creeks lets see

Nobody is rigging anything anywhere.The new electoral law made sure of that

kcnwaigbo:
I'll
Obi will win the NC and secure appreciable votes in Kaduna, Taraba,Bauchi and Adamawa.

He will lose the North but not as much as you think

Obi will win in which NC
Kwara abi Niger or kogi?
Even benue wey near go hard am

kcnwaigbo:
Nobody is rigging anything anywhere.The new electoral law made sure of that

Feb 23 no far.

kcnwaigbo:
Tinubu and which south?.APC with it's Muslim Muslim ticket will not be able to secure even 10% in any state of the SS and SE dream on

south means SW, SE and SS.
which SW will definitely give him at least 1.7m votes, SS will give him 300k and SE will give him 98k