BY JOSEPH Y. CHIBOK

As things stand today in the political manoeuvres among the political aspirants in our country, who of the three leading presidential candidates stands the best chance of winning next year’s presidential elections in our country? Is it Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress party or is it the new entrant to the presidential contest, Peter Obi, of the Labour Party or is it the perennial presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party?

Given the objective reality on the ground today, no analyst can be accused of bias if he or she says that the odds undoubtedly favour Bola Ahmed Tinubu. What are the evidences on the ground to warrant this assertion? Of the three men, it is only Tinubu who has his immediate geo-political zone (the South-West states of Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Ekiti and Oyo) firmly in his grip. As any knowledgeable commentator on Nigerian politics can readily agree, the recent loss by the APC of the governorship election in Osun State to the PDP does not in any way vitiate my assertion of Tinubu’s near absolute control of the South West. The governorship was an internal affair in which local political intrigues and calculations played a major role. It was not a plebiscite on Tinubu. In a nationwide election in which Tinubu will face other Nigerians, no South West man or woman will vote for another candidate other than Tinubu.

On the issue of control of ‘personal’ geo-political zone, Atiku fares particularly disastrously when compared to Tinubu. In spite of Atiku’s long years in politics in general and presidential political contest in particular, he has not been able to carve the North East (Adamawa, Taraba, Borno, Yobe, Bauchi, and Gombe) where he comes from, as a zone solidly in his firm political grips. There is no single state of the North East you can bank on that is exclusively Atiku’s if he is in a presidential contest against any other candidate whether the candidate is northern or southern. Not even Adamawa his home state nor Taraba his most neighbourly state!

How does Obi of the Labour Party fare in this particular criterion? Obi does not do any better than Atiku in this regard and is not in any way near to Bola Tinubu at all. Is spite of the waves I and many other observers acknowledge he is making on the Social Media, one cannot be sure that the South-East is his firm zone. The test for that is going to come in 2023 and given the prospects on the ground, the South East is going to be evenly divided between the Labour Party and the PDP with the APC even having a big chunk of the share. Many bigwigs of the PDP and the APC who have a foothold in the South East region have been openly saying that they and their parties have something to fight for in the region and they will not just let that go because an Obi is from their territory.

Let us leave the political zone of origins of the leading candidates and consider the immediate contiguous zone to their own. In the North Central Zone (comprising Kwara, Kogi, Niger, Nasarawa, Plateau and Benue) which is contiguous to Tinubu’s South West, the first five states are at present solid APC states which are undeniably going to vote for Tinubu. Remember that much of Kwara and Kogi are culturally and geographically South Western and only geo-politically North. Let us also remember that Niger is where Tinubu is the traditional title holder of Jagaba of Borgu, evidence of years of political bridge-building which is his key political forte.

In Niger and Plateau, Tinubu will also reap the benefit of his party’s hold on those states while in Benue which is the only state of the zone that is PDP, the fall-out between Atiku and Governor Wike and Governor Samuel Ortom’s sympathy and solidarity with Wike will tilt the balance of decision in favour of the Asiwaju.

South-South Zone (comprising Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Rivers, Delta, Bayelsa and Edo) is the contiguous zone to Peter Obi’s South East. All the states of this zone are almost solidly PDP but given the current wrangling between Atiku and the hierarchy of the PDP and Rivers State Governor Wike, the future of the presidential contest in these states cannot now be correctly predicted but what is likely to happen is that Tinubu will be the major beneficiary of the presidential votes which will be split among him and Peter Obi and Atiku.

Atiku’s immediate contiguous zone is the North West (comprising Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Katsina, Sokoto, Jigawa and Zamfara. Here, Atiku’s selling points are his religious affinity and kinship with many of the voters of the region. Unfortunately for him, however, this is one of the strongholds of Tinubu’s All Progressives Congress party. Those who owe Atiku votes on the basis of religious affinity also owe Tinubu their votes on the same consideration but will consider the higher point of party loyalty to which they can also derive their well-being. Those who stand to gain something from the APC will not lightly toy with that. They will all vote for Tinubu in rebuff of Atiku.


There is also the critical factor of mentorship, friend-making abilities and strategic calculation. Of the three, Tinubu is clearly a front-liner in each of them. Tinubu won the primaries of his presidential election based mainly on the sheer number of persons he has mentored over the years, the sheer number of friends he has made in the course of his political career and the rightness of his geo-political calculations.

It must be made clear that politics is not a game of sentiments. Most of those who participate in it are clear-headed individuals who do things pragmatically. That is why Obi’s wave-making will easily fade away when we get to the brass tacks next year. And as we again saw during the APC presidential primaries, Bola Ahmed Tinubu will not merely win the presidency, he will win it by such a run-away margin that it will constitute a monumental landslide that will exceed the votes of Atiku and Obi combined.

In addition to his political clout and spread, Tinubu is being complemented by a capable, competent and suave vice-presidential candidate in the person of Senator Kashim Shettima.

Because Shettima in on the ticket, it’s taken for granted that 99.9% of the voters in Borno and Yobe States will vote for the APC ditto Gombe because of its affinity to the people of Yobe and Gombe is also under the firm grips of the APC.

Shettima has made name and he is very popular in the North having served with distinction as the Chairman of the Northern Governors Forum.

On the other hand, the vice-presidential candidate of the PDP, Senator Ifeanyi Okowa has to contend with powerful forces in APC in Delta State such as Senator Ovie Omo-Agege. Similarly, the political feud between Atiku and Wike might not guarantee Rivers votes for the PDP.

For Senator Datti Ahmed of the Labour Party, he does not even have the political clout to attract votes from his native Zaria not to talk of winning the votes in Kaduna State.

Shettima is head and shoulder above all the vice-presidential candidates of all the leading political parties.

The enormous goodwill which Tinubu has sown all across the country over the years, his acknowledged generous spirit, his leading fight for this democracy we are all enjoying today during the heyday of military dictatorship, his well-known doggedness in fighting causes he holds dear and of course, the God factor which rewards people or strivers for the sweat of their brows, will help him to gain the biggest political diadem in the land, to the consternation, I think, of his ill-wishers

http:///6aa0043c220912en_ng?link=1&client=news

Everything about him is odd!

Obituarists right now

I can't wait for February. Sai baba tinubu ikon Allah

Muna tare mutumina, Allah ya bashi sa'a

Kai dan wane jahar ne?

frank14011991:
I can't wait for February. Sai baba tinubu ikon Allah

You can't separate bigotry and nepotism from tinubu.
He can't trust him.
He has Yoruba agenda that will scatter Nigeria.

This is a very bias analysis from one of APC Media dogs.

Tinubu has SW on stronghold but Obi doesn't have SE on stronghold?

And saying Tinubu will clear NC is another false thing to say,the fact that Kwankwaso wasn't included in the NW by the is another false assumptions.

Yorubas will give block votes to Tinubu but igbos won't give block votes to Obi and Northerners won't give block votes to Atiku? It must be ment.

The author even went as far as saying that Tinubu's vote will exceed that of Atiku and Obi combined,what kind of weed are you people smoking in that APC for God's sake?

So even one person can not support this man without sounding or looking stupid?

We all know Obi wants to play a fast one by riding on the YOUTH, YOUTH mantra but we will not allow that...simply put, the youth are in fact the reason why Nigeria is where it is presently.

The 'Youth' voted in Goodluck Jonathan in 2011 on the FRESH AIR mandate... He couldn't help save our floundering economy, most monies ended in the pockets of his cronies, especially from the North where he thought he could sway their votes.
The 'Youth' voted in Muhamadu Buhari in 2015/2019 on the CHANGE, CHANGE/EXT LEVEL mantras... We are where we are today because of Buhari
So the YOUTH are coming again with PETER OBI on his TAKE BACK NIGERIA...We the real youth no go gree...

Once Bitten, Twice Shy... This is in fact, Twice Bitten, Thrice Shy!!

Nyamuri:
Muna tare mutumina, Allah ya bashi sa'a

Kai dan wane jahar ne?

ni Dan kano ne Amma a JIGAWA nake da zaune

Salvador1:
You can't separate bigotry and nepotism from tinubu.
He can't trust him.
He has Yoruba agenda that will scatter Nigeria.

there are 31 notherners on that list

Bomboiy:
This is a very bias analysis from one of APC Media dogs.

Tinubu has SW on stronghold but Obi doesn't have SE on stronghold?

And saying Tinubu will clear NC is another false thing to say,the fact that Kwankwaso wasn't included in the NW by the is another false assumptions.

Yorubas will give block votes to Tinubu but igbos won't give block votes to Obi and Northerners won't give block votes to Atiku? It must be ment.

The author even went as far as saying that Tinubu's vote will exceed that of Atiku and Obi combined,what kind of weed are you people smoking in that APC for God's sake?

Yorubas will give block votes for Tinubu bcs there is no any other contenders from S w. Atiku will not get block vote from North bcs of Kwankwaso,Shetims and Datt . Obi will not get block votes from s e and s s bcs of Okowa ,wike of river state and IPOB activities in the region.

Lol I'm one of kwankwasso biggest fan, but I, him and millions of his supporters know he doesn't stand a chance, hence won't waste our votes on him, at best he will get significant votes in kano state.. So he is not a factor

Atiku is not a northern project and is classified as a fair-weather politician in the north!! When u talk about popular politicians like Buhari, kwankwasso, amino kano, Yar'adua etc that go beyond their states and regio. Atiku has never known to win his NE region since he started contesting election; even in his home state, APC gubernatorial candidate Mrs. Binani will give him a run for his money

Bomboiy:
This is a very bias analysis from one of APC Media dogs.

Tinubu has SW on stronghold but Obi doesn't have SE on stronghold?

And saying Tinubu will clear NC is another false thing to say,the fact that Kwankwaso wasn't included in the NW by the is another false assumptions.

Yorubas will give block votes to Tinubu but igbos won't give block votes to Obi and Northerners won't give block votes to Atiku? It must be ment.

The author even went as far as saying that Tinubu's vote will exceed that of Atiku and Obi combined,what kind of weed are you people smoking in that APC for God's sake?

PlayerMeji:
We all know Obi wants to play a fast one by riding on the YOUTH, YOUTH mantra but we will not allow that...simply put, the youth are in fact the reason why Nigeria is where it is presently.

The 'Youth' voted in Goodluck Jonathan in 2011 on the FRESH AIR mandate... He couldn't help save our floundering economy, most monies ended in the pockets of his cronies, especially from the North where he thought he could sway their votes.
The 'Youth' voted in Muhamadu Buhari in 2015/2019 on the CHANGE, CHANGE/EXT LEVEL mantras... We are where we are today because of Buhari
So the YOUTH are coming again with PETER OBI on his TAKE BACK NIGERIA...We the real youth no go gree...

Once Bitten, Twice Shy... This is in fact, Twice Bitten, Thrice Shy!!

You're not more a youth, you're an old man

Lol! Remove Datti! That guy even in his household he will lose... in Zaria ppl don't know him

adekolaelect:
Yorubas will give block votes for Tinubu bcs there is no any other contenders from S w. Atiku will not get block vote from North bcs of Kwankwaso,Shetims and Datt . Obi will not get block votes from s e and s s bcs of Okowa ,wike of river state and IPOB activities in the region.

Yet, Peter Obi is a youth!

Landowner101:

You're not more a youth, you're an old man

LeoDeKing:
Obituarists right now

According to him, it is not proper for the APC presidential candidate to say it is his turn be the next Nigeria President.

This was as he maintained that the Muslim-Muslim ticket of the ruling party was unnecessary.

He said of Tinubu that “it is not proper for him to say it is his turn. There is no question to say it is my turn. Don’t say it is my turn because if people like you, they will vote for you.

“The Muslim-Muslim ticket is unnecessary. We all know, all these politicians are looking for votes. The Muslim-Muslim ticket is, let me use Hausa language, is wayo (deceit). It is not religion.

“Whether it will work or not, I don’t want to prophesise, but there are a lot hurdles. In fact, all the political parties have hurdles. Muslim-Muslim ticket is going to be a laboratory test for others to emulate or not.”

Nyamuri:
Lol! Remove Datti! That guy even in his household he will lose... in Zaria ppl don't know him

People don't know a former Rep, former Senator, a northern Oligarch, An multi-billionaire businessman, a proprietor of two universities, and a VP candidate? Those who surpport Tinubu are like him. They are irredeemable.

frank14011991:
ni Dan kano ne Amma a JIGAWA nake da zaune

Maza ko canza zuwa turanci

Newton2024:
People don't know a former Rep, former Senator, a northern Oligarch, An multi-billionaire businessman, a proprietor of two universities, and a VP candidate? Those who surpport Tinubu are like him. They are irredeemable.

all elections he won in his life has been the influence of buhari.same to shekarau in kano 2003,2007,2019

Nyamuri:
Lol I'm one of kwankwasso biggest fan, but I, him and millions of his supporters know he doesn't stand a chance, hence won't waste our votes on him, at best he will get significant votes in kano state.. So he is not a factor

Atiku is not a northern project and is classified as a fair-weather politician in the north!! When u talk about popular politicians like Buhari, kwankwasso, amino kano, Yar'adua etc that go beyond their states and regio. Atiku has never known to win his NE region since he started contesting election; even in his home state, APC gubernatorial candidate Mrs. Binani will give him a run for his money

Atiku is not a Northern project doesn't mean that his people will choose Tinubu ahead of him. Atiku has only contested general election twice and Buhari was on the ballot the two times.

Saying Tinubu will win Atiku in the north is absurd,i visit Northern pages on Facebook daily and I see that majority of them are for Atiku and Kwankwaso before Tinubu. infact if you go to BBC hausa and Rariya Hausa on Facebook to support Tinubu you will get insulted by Northerners there. It will be a big mistake to think that Tinubu will get Buhari's votes bank because he will not.

Let us not even talk about the numerous defections from APC to PDP in northern states, even down to Buhari's Katsina. Only APC members like you claim Atiku is a featherweight Politician in the north and that is giving yourself false hope.

adekolaelect:
Yorubas will give block votes for Tinubu bcs there is no any other contenders from S w. Atiku will not get block vote from North bcs of Kwankwaso,Shetims and Datt . Obi will not get block votes from s e and s s bcs of Okowa ,wike of river state and IPOB activities in the region.

I have seen Yorubas supporting Obi than I have seen igbos supporting Atiku and Tinubu combined,I am the one down south,I know things happening around. And you really think Okowa can influence this election? I have a friend from the same LGA with Okowa and she is a very strong OBIdient together with her family members. Okowa will even find it difficult to deliver Delta State not alone the whole SS.


What IPOB activities are you talking about? The same activities that didn't stop voters registration? the same activities that couldn't stop the numerous OBIdient rallies? If your hope of Obi not getting block votes from SE is IPOB then you will be shocked terribly.

As the Ban on campaigns are lifted soon, Nigerians should be prepared for the sleaziest campaign ever from the self acclaimed strategist.
But let him know no amount of bleach or detergent can wash away the stench on tinubu.

Nigerians are wiser.

Bomboiy:


I have seen Yorubas supporting Obi than I have seen igbos supporting Atiku and Tinubu combined,I am the one down south,I know things happening around. And you really think Okowa can influence this election? I have a friend from the same LGA with Okowa and she is a very strong OBIdient together with her family members. Okowa will even find it difficult to deliver Delta State not alone the whole SS.


What IPOB activities are you talking about? The same activities that didn't stop voters registration? the same activities that couldn't stop the numerous OBIdient rallies? If your hope of Obi not getting block votes from SE is IPOB then you will be shocked terribly.

Imaginary theories from everywhere .may God save us till then and above.