₦airaland Forum

Michelle70:
Igbos said the SS will vote massively for Obi, so i am saying that even with the massive SS help, he will still loose cos SE votes is to small to assist the bulk votes from SS.

The SE is just holding the SS back

My projectionfor Northern votes

raumdeuter:
North Central

Kwara Tinubu 70% Atiku 20% Obi 10%
Kogi Tinubu 50% Atiku 30% Obi 15% Kwankwanso 5%
Benue Tinubu 30% Atiku 35% Obi 30% Kwankwanso 5%
Plateau Tinubu 30% Atiku 35% Obi 15% Kwankwanso 10%
Niger Tinubu 45% Atiku 35% Kwankwanso 15% Obi 5%
Nasarawa Tinubu 35% Atiku 30% Kwankwanso 10% Obi 25%

North West

Kano* Tinubu 35% Kwankwanso 35% Atiku 30%
Kaduna Tinubu 35% Atiku 30% Kwankwanso 20% Obi 15%
Sokoto Tinubu 35% Atiku 45% Kwankwanso 20%
Kebbi Tinubu 40% Atiku 45% Kwankwanso 15%
Zamfara Tinubu 55% Atiku 30% Kwankwanso 15%
Katsina* Tinubu 40% Atiku 40% Kwankwanso 20%
Jigawa Tinubu 40% Atiku 45% Kwankwanso 15%

North East

Borno Tinubu 80% Atiku 15% Kwankwanso 5%
Yobe Tinubu 70% Atiku 25% Kwankwanso 5%
Gombe Tinubu 45% Atiku 40% Kwankwanso 15%
Bauchi Tinubu 35% Atiku 45% Kwankwanso 20%
Adamawa Tinubu 15% Atiku 75% Kwankwanso 10%
Taraba Tinubu 20% Atiku 60% Kwankwanso 5% Obi 15%

Those asterisks the margn will be very close to call

PraizHim:
Odds have never seemed to favour when its time for a change until it happens.


Nigeria shall rise and be great again

Vote Wisely


OBI/DATTI 2023

Commitment, my foot. Yeye

Michelle70:
Igbos said the SS will vote massively for Obi, so i am saying that even with the massive SS help, he will still loose cos SE votes is to small to assist the bulk votes from SS.

The SE is just holding the SS back

The SS has never been politically aligned with SE politics.

This election is a repeat of the 1979 elections.

JewsAreSatanic:
The SS has never been politically aligned with SE politics.

This election is a repeat of the 1979 elections.

I always tell them this but they keep calling me afonja, so i have given them our SS to avoid rancour

Michelle70:
I always tell them this but they keep calling me afonja, so i have given them our SS to avoid rancour

This thread says it all

https://www.nairaland.com/7280419/2023-elections-repeat-1979-elections

The elections will be a repeat of the 1979 elections that saw a light weight Shagari win the presidency over the likes of Awolowo, Azikiwe and Balarabe Musa

Michelle70:
Northern votes is 17m while southern votes is 9m

40% northern votes is 6.8m
100% SS and SE votes combined is 5.4m

when we were telling u that the north has massive votes, u think we are playing

Lol... joker, 2019 the race was just between two northerners, that was why the south didn't turn out in mass to vote, 2023 we have Obi and Tinubu, watch how the south will turn out in mass and support their own, and stop including middle belt in this northern rubbish, Obi is winning Plateau, Benue and Abuja, he will do well in nasarawa, even in kogi... Stop saying what you don't know...

raumdeuter:
My projectionfor Northern votes

Obi is winning Plateau state, Benue and Abuja, take down the trash you put up there, am in Plateau state and I can boldly tell you that..

Michelle70:
The north always produce votes almost twice the number that the south produce.

Using 2019 as a case study.

The entire north produced about 17.1m votes for both APC and PDP while the south produced 9m votes.

Anyone who scores 40% of northern votes will be having 6.8m.
That is more than the SS and SE votes combined which is (5.4m)
That means if the most impossible happens and PO scores 100% from these two regions while APC and PDP scores zero votes each, LP will still loose

How will Obi balance this huge gap when his hope is just SS and SE?

Got me thinking what kind of abracadabra LP will pull in 2023 ceteris paribus

The 1 million march we have seem in the north shey they won't vote?

Michelle70:
Northern votes is 17m while southern votes is 9m

40% northern votes is 6.8m
100% SS and SE votes combined is 5.4m

when we were telling u that the north has massive votes, u think we are playing

Buhari couldn't win with those MASSIVE votes in 2011 and 2003.. If you like win all the northern states. If you fail to get 35% of southern votes, you lose!

You can still get 80-90% votes of Southern and still win.. Reference - 2011.

Only a novice in Nigeria political terrain will think that Obi will win a presidential election. He even knows that he won’t win. He’s just enjoying the little game of fame.

Make una follow d person wey sabi road, una dey do agidi!

Izit not berra to die of starvation than put one's hope in d hands of bitter and hatefilled bigots?

You guys will learn d hard way come 2023

Conner44:
Obi can’t help the north if they don’t want to help themselves.

All the voting of their brothers has it helped their region? Till today they are still battling poverty, insecurity and illiteracy.

If they like let them continue to vote without merit who they are related to, it can only keep on going downhill for them and not others.

richie240:
Make una follow d person wey sabi road, una dey do agidi!

Izit not berra to die of starvation than put one's hope in d hands of bitter and hatefilled bigots?

You guys will learn d hard way come 2023

So who come sabi the road? Tinubu? Atiku?

E better make I loss

That one na sure banker!

Conner44:
So who come sabi the road? Tinubu? Atiku?

E better make I loss

richie240:
That one na sure banker!

I dey tell you

Make Peter Obi carry me dey go

ambale:
What we've had in times past is voter apathy in the South, while the north has been coming out even with underaged voters

Remember none of the candidates have a cult-like follower-ship in the north like Buhari, so bloc votes might not come

And the south will definitely come out more this time around.

Is even obi who have a cult like followership in this election.

The op you quoted is against obi.

Instead of using the voting strength of different zones he just narrowed it down to 2019, the south were noth interested because two northerners were contesting, 2023 will be a total different game.

JewsAreSatanic:
The SS has never been politically aligned with SE politics.

This election is a repeat of the 1979 elections.

What of 2011 and 2025?

4teenblaq:
TBH we have kwakwanso, tinubu, atiku..... And these three doesn't have chance in south like the way you claimed obi doesn't have in the north..

So how is the three going to win Obi?

TBH if obi can win the SS and SE, forget it, obi win will the election... How?
If he can win SS and SE , he will be getting 30-40% of sw votes, three out of north centrals are already in the bag... 25% from NW and 25%NE .. In the other hand North votes will be divided by three(tinubu, kwakwanso and atiku will be sharing the north), this will usher more chance for Peter obi...

You guys should stop relying on tribal and party loyalty votes, it won't work this time.

As voting pattern changed from 2011 to 2015, voting pattern can also change in 2023...

Don't mind their self-consoling analysis paralysis.

Obi is the next President.

Kwankwaso, Atiku and BAT will share Northern vote while SE/SS/NC is on lockdown fro OBi.

Argue with facts.

Let's say realistically, Peter Obi wins the entire South East, plus

Edo
Akwa Ibom
Cross River
Benue
Plateau
Taraba
Abuja

And then gets sizable votes in

Lagos
Rivers
Oyo
Ondo
Rivers
Nasarawa
Bloc Christian Sokoto
Bloc Christian Bauchi
Bloc Southern/Christian Kaduna

Look, if votes would actually count, there's no way to tell the direction this election would go. We're talking about a candidate (Obi) who arouses strong sentiments, almost similar to the effect Buhari had on his Northern horde in the build up to 2015.

Odds won't change over tribal n religious bigots n a daredevil criminal like Peter Obi.

Odd changes when philanthropist like MKO steps out supporting Christian n other ethnic group beside his. It require conscious effort that everyone can allude to. Obi lack such, only bigoted igbos think Obi can amount to anything in this election.

Any sane Nigerian know Obi will be competing with Sowore m xo. All this noise on SM na joke with the march wasting their lives not just time

PraizHim:
Odds have never seemed to favour when its time for a change until it happens.


Nigeria shall rise and be great again

Vote Wisely


OBI/DATTI 2023

Michelle70:
So Obidients actually didnt think about this?

Says alot about the level of IQ from his supporters

why cant CPC win the election?

Masturbator2020:
The 1 million march we have seem in the north shey they won't vote?

oh, u mean that 2,000 people?
This is 80,000 capacity stadium.

samsononyilo:
Obi is winning Plateau state, Benue and Abuja, take down the trash you put up there, am in Plateau state and I can boldly tell you that..

So u are in plateau state and u have decided where southern votes will go?

Lol... joker, 2019 the race was just between two northerners, that was why the south didn't turn out in mass to vote, 2023 we have Obi and Tinubu, watch how the south will turn out in mass and support their own, and stop including middle belt in this northern rubbish, Obi is winning Plateau, Benue and Abuja, he will do well in nasarawa, even in kogi... Stop saying what you don't know...

@michelle70
There will be reduced voter apathey in SE,SS in 2023
The EndSARS revolution and increase in youth consciousness will change the dynamics
Don't rule these out

Michelle70:
So Obidients actually didnt think about this?

Says alot about the level of IQ from his supporters

Your analysis is typical of what tinubu supporters would write, very DUMB! If you had sense, you wouldn't have used only 2019 election that had just two Fulanis from North contesting. The SE and SS obviously weren't interested in that election for obvious reasons why North was mostly motivated.

In 2023, the entire SE and SS alongside Bible belt of Northern Nigeria would be passionate to vote in the election. Northern Christians would even more interested to vote than any other group in Nigeria at least to prove a point to Tinubu who is threatening them with political extinction. For the first time in history, church leaders in the North closed their doors to members who didn't have voters card!

Obi already has massive support in the entire SS, SE and Northern Christians yet you believe that tinubu who is only sure of yoruba muslim votes stands a better chance? Can't you see you're deluded and unrealistic?

Michelle70:
The north always produce votes almost twice the number that the south produce.

Using 2019 as a case study.

The entire north produced about 17.1m votes for both APC and PDP while the south produced 9m votes.

Anyone who scores 40% of northern votes will be having 6.8m.
That is more than the SS and SE votes combined which is (5.4m)
That means if the most impossible happens and PO scores 100% from these two regions while APC and PDP scores zero votes each, LP will still loose

How will Obi balance this huge gap when his hope is just SS and SE?

Got me thinking what kind of abracadabra LP will pull in 2023 ceteris paribus

Why are you worried about obi business ? Are you contesting ?
Mind your business and stop talking trash

kingjiss:
Why are you worried about obi business ? Are you contesting ?
Mind your business and stop talking trash

As a Nigerian, all presidential candidates are my business cos i will definitely vote either of them

drmuchin:
@michelle70
There will be reduced voter apathey in SE,SS in 2023
The EndSARS revolution and increase in youth consciousness will change the dynamics
Don't rule these out

The endsars revolution wont do much.

People will still be partisan

Michelle70:
Votes wasnt as extreme as this.
in 2007 and 2011, votes wasnt much about tribes, region and religion

it's okay you're aware of this...now the reverse is that religion,frustration is playing a huge role. Would the people support atiku another Muslim man who's tag criminal or APC Muslim- Muslim ticket which the party Nigerians are still enjoying their long suffering?

Oyiboman69:
it's okay you're aware of this...now the reverse is that religion,frustration is playing a huge role. Would the people support atiku another Muslim man who's tag criminal or APC Muslim- Muslim ticket which the party Nigerians are still enjoying their long suffering?

which ever way.
Its certain they wont vote for Obi and that is a very heavy blow on LP

Sonyboom:
Odds won't change over tribal n religious bigots n a daredevil criminal like Peter Obi.

Odd changes when philanthropist like MKO steps out supporting Christian n other ethnic group beside his. It require conscious effort that everyone can allude to. Obi lack such, only bigoted igbos think Obi can amount to anything in this election.

Any sane Nigerian know Obi will be competing with Sowore m xo. All this noise on SM na joke with the march wasting their lives not just time

"Usu, Agbado soldier"
My prayer for you is "May your life be like Tinubu's health and may your life also be like what APC has done to Nigeria. in the last 7 + years"


Say Amen If you get mind.

Michelle70:
oh, u mean that 2,000 people?
This is 80,000 capacity stadium.

But we have not seen the 2,000 march for APC and PDP

Possibly the odd favor ur wasted father in his cursed grave that u can't identify... Ewu