₦airaland Forum

[quote author=pacesetting post=117574851]That's the mistake you guys keep making. SE and SS will go Obi's way. SE by more than 80% and SS by more than 50%• Obi will also do well in Lagos, and he is likely winning North Central.

You guys are not considering the impact of voter apathy in this election, which will hit the North. For now, there is no clear cut advantage for anyone. The election is between Obi and Atiku. The only reason why Tinubu is still considered in the race is AP...

Obi figures need to be proven in an election....
SEast has the lowest voters on INEC register...
PDP/APC only need to find a way to get 25 percent from that axis....
Dont expect good figures (turnout) in the SEast due to IPOB activities.....
All that is required is to fund unknown gunmen to reduce turnout....
PDP and APC structures are still intact in most South South states....
Protest votes are expected for Obi in urban areas ....
U dont win election in six regions by protest votes....
Morever, most electoral malpractices are done in rural areas...
Obi will get votes from the SEast folks in Lagos and a handful protest votes...
SWest is locked down for Tinubu..
Obi cant win Kwara..Kogi...Nasarawa...Niger...
APC/PDP still have heavyweights in those North Central can still pull weights..
David Mark, Suswam, Ortom, Akume still enjoy a large number of followership in their areas...
Obi has no relevance in the NW/NE apart from the minority Northern Xtians ...
Lack of funding... poor resources to fund campaign will be a major hindrance in that axis..
...U also do not expect APC to sit down...
You should expect every trick in the book ....
Rules can be bend but not broken...
Lastly... election in Naija is highly monetized ...
You should expect this to play a major role....

pacesetting:
Atiku is not winning a single state in the South.

He can. South is not one and they don't vote like Northerners. Bayelsa and Cross River for example could go Atiku way especially Bayelsa. In Delta where his VP candidate comes from, Atiku might likely win there too or come close although majority of my friends in Delta who are diehard PDP supporters vow to vote Obi.

rolams:
Bro. What if I tell you I don't have a candidate?

I have been taking my time to access all the candidates one after the other. I only posted my comment based on what's on ground.

Don't mind that Man. He is an Igbo man who always impersonate North.

Ekundayo7574:
Lol you guys will just wake up and formulate jargons Atiku Ole

Lol. Apart from that sef, with his issue with the Wike faction, he cannot gather the necessary support to pull through

kevclin:
ATIKU will not win. OBi is the favorite.
Who are the North you guys keep talking about? I'm also from the North. North will be divided between Atiku & OBi. If u talk of North West, remove Kaduna cos Obi also stand a chance to win Kaduna. Infact, Obi can also win Adamawa where Atiku hails from, If they choose to play a religious card.

Another IGBO man impersonating almighty NORTH. Make una stick to una Eastern Region.

Kasssandra:
Yeah, because,as I said elsewhere...you need the middle belt to win. Not the North.

But even then, you still need 25% in the North at least. Obasanjo got a minority of votes in the North (and won a state like Kaduna outright..though by a thin margin)...just to make sure of victory in 2003.

North may be more important this time, because Southern votes may be split between tinubu and obi and atiku three way.

Why do you think Tinubu, Obi and Atiku will split SS and SE votes after everything that had happened in this country. The SE and SS are on total lockdown for Obi. The only way Atiku might get something from the south Is if Wike finally aligns with him. But you see APC, the SS and SE are no go areas for them.

Tinubu will obviously get tangible votes from the SW, Borno and Yobe. Kwara, Kogi and few other states.

All things been equal, the election is between Atiku and Obi

DaddyFabooluz:
You are not God, remember that.

Clearly this your thread is out of bias. I thought initially it was from an objective analysis.

pacesetting:
You think the president has the power to divide the country? Illiteratecy is Nigeria's biggest problem. That's why the wrong people keep taking up leadership positions.

let me educate you. All what Peter obi need is to plunge the country into a tribal or religious war, then invite the UN and advise them to organise a referendum, the referendum will be rigged to favour the president choice.
Mr literate? Should I educate you more?

David160:
I will vote for obi next year.

But at this point Atiku looks like the incoming president.

APC has lost kano.. All thanks to Kwankwaso

APC will be badly hurt in Kaduna, Bauchi due to the huge Christian population.

APC will lose Sokoto and they'll barely win kastina.

Atiku will give them tough time in NE given that it's his region.


APC needs their bloc vote in the north untouched.. Atiku will win the SS and he'll still get massive vote in the SE.

Tinubu is not even sure of Lagos bloc vote.. PDP managed to win ondo and oyo in the last election.

This time they have oyo, ondo and Osun up for grab... The reality is that the backlash to MM is more than the backlash to 8 more years of northern rule.

All signs point to an Atiku victory

see! I am from oyo,I voted for pdp in the governorship election but this time,not only me,many of us who voted pdp for governorship will vote tinubu,if atiku see 40% in southwest,he try. As for obi,he no go see shishi apart from lagos

Nyamuri:
Sokoto State, am currently in Keffi, Nasarawa state working

who will win in Sokoto?

Lately i keep seeing different people claiming to be northerners and they keep preaching OBI or Atiku and claiming that Northerners love this people

ufuosman:
You are wrong. Atiku cnt come out second in southwest, in south east and south south Obi will win why atiku will follow, tinubu will not hv much votes dere why in South West tinubu will win Obi will follow, atiku will not hv much votes. For the north like north east and north west atiku will lead dat side then north central will be battle for them all

Obi will come a distant third in the South West, mark my word !

onuman:
The two largest ethnic groups in Nigeria - Igbo and Yoruba - have been ruled for ages in Nigeria by a smaller ethnic group.
Why did Tinubu not consider the fact that Obasanjo ruled Nigeria from 1999-2007, therefore an Igbo needs to succeed President Buhari?
Shettima is even programmed to be president, Tinubu is a mere vessel for southwest votes for Shettima in APC.

is tinubu in charge of pdp who denied obi the right of the south? Or you want APC to give it's ticket to obi?

You see where you continue to goof? So many ifs on one statement.

asanausana91:
let me educate you. All what Peter obi need is to plunge the country into a tribal or religious war, then invite the UN and advise them to organise a referendum, the referendum will be rigged to favour the president choice.
Mr literate? Should I educate you more?

Nyamuri:
Lol who is Atiku's dominant force in the north!! U fools will just wake up a type rubbish.. that's why u don't know anything about elections and keep getting it wrong each election circle

Most heavyweights from the north are in APC! Is there any force as strong as governor, senator, HOR, HOA etc in a state

You guys don't know shit about how the north work but ull open ur big gutter mouth because u have read some nonsense margins on social media

Comrade, you can still express your opinion without calling others fools. You are saying something about governors in APC, we are also in North, and one thing I know that the Northern politicians don't work with logic the way you think. Adamu Mauzu was a PDP national chairman but you saw what he did to Jonathan.

Even Buhari local government is dominated by PDP. I don't know who will win but if you are living in the North, you will know that for now, Atiku Abubakar is the favorite.

rolams:
Bro. What if I tell you I don't have a candidate?

I have been taking my time to access all the candidates one after the other. I only posted my comment based on what's on ground.

YOU ARE A LIAR BRO.
All your posts on nairaland show you are a P.D.P supporter.
Stop the unnecessary lies please.

Gubernatorial or presidential?

asanausana91:
who will win in Sokoto?

That's if the election will be decided by the North. I know you will want to point to 2015 and 2019. But if you want to do that, start from 1999.

Demigod22:
Comrade, you can still express your opinion without calling others fools. You are saying something about governors in APC, we are also in North, and one thing I know that the Northern politicians don't work with logic the way you think. Adamu Mauzu was a PDP national chairman but you saw what he did to Jonathan.

Even Buhari local government is dominated by PDP. I don't know who will win but if you are living in the North, you will know that for now, Atiku Abubakar is the favorite.

Demigod22:
Comrade, you can still express your opinion without calling others fools. You are saying something about governors in APC, we are also in North, and one thing I know that the Northern politicians don't work with logic the way you think. Adamu Mauzu was a PDP national chairman but you saw what he did to Jonathan.

Even Buhari local government is dominated by PDP. I don't know who will win but if you are living in the North, you will know that for now, Atiku Abubakar is the favorite.

Muazu did nothing to gej,buhari has alwats won bauchi.apc dominates katsina.atiku is Jo favourite,the north is divided

donaldking100:
YOU ARE A LIAR BRO.
All your posts on nairaland show you are a P.D.P supporter.
Stop the unnecessary lies please.

Don't mind the boy

Obi's votes only in Lagos with exceed whatever votes Atiku will pull in the entire SW, mark my word.

Onovo3:
Obi will come a distant third in the South West, mark my word !

Ayodeoba:
is tinubu in charge of pdp who denied obi the right of the south? Or you want APC to give it's ticket to obi?

You are too blind to see the Igbo presidential materials in APC who formed APC with Tinubu and Buhari from the beginning.
E don set.
You people's delusion: APC is Tinubu property - may deny both Igbo and Yoruba the presidency this time if care is not taken.

LagosInter:
How will atiku win the south south over Obi.

You live in the moon..

Irrespective of where I live, I am an aboriginal of the South South, and I can tell you Atiku will win the South South. Your emotion would not change anything !

Onovo3:
Similar to to my view as well. The worst that will happen to Atiku in the Southern part of Nigeria is to have a draw with Tinubu and Obi. This is because, Tinubu will definitely win the South West, While Atiku will come 2nd with good number of votes there. Obi will not fly beyond Lagos in the South West. However, Obi could likely have an upper hand in the South East. The worst case for Atiku in the South East is second position. Atiku will definitely win the South South with Tinubu/Obi battling for the second position. Overall, Atiku's ability to get reasonable votes from the South West, and South East couple with his victory in South South would put him at a comfortable edge in the South.

The North would be the decider for 2023 ! Who wins the North carry's the day !

2023 Presidential Election is very difficult to predict unlike the past elections. If election is held today PO will win Southeast with very wide Margin. He will also win in all the States in Southsoutth.. I'm sure.

Nyamuri:
Gubernatorial or presidential?

presidential

kevclin:
ATIKU will not win. OBi is the favorite.
Who are the North you guys keep talking about? I'm also from the North. North will be divided between Atiku & OBi. If u talk of North West, remove Kaduna cos Obi also stand a chance to win Kaduna. Infact, Obi can also win Adamawa where Atiku hails from, If they choose to play a religious card.

Obi winning Adama? You must be Joseph the dreamer. If you are in the North and is currently living in the North, you will see the handwriting that the North will favour Atiku Abubakar.

I am also from the North and still living in the North. Even the last time I visited Daura, Buhari's village, they are highly Atikulated. The APC campaign office in Katsina have been taking over by PDP.

I don't know who is going to win, but saying Obi will win the North must be voted as joke of the year.

pacesetting:
You see where you continue to goof? So many ifs on one statement.

if you still love your country,pls don't make a mistake of voting for peter Obi.

kevclin:
ATIKU will not win. OBi is the favorite.
Who are the North you guys keep talking about? I'm also from the North. North will be divided between Atiku & OBi. If u talk of North West, remove Kaduna cos Obi also stand aW chance to win Kaduna. Infact, Obi can also win Adamawa where Atiku hails from, If they choose to play a religious card.

Obi winning Adamawa? You must be Joseph the dreamer. If you are in the North and is currently living in the North, you will see the handwriting that the North will favour Atiku Abubakar.

I am also from the North and still living in the North. Even the last time I visited Daura, Buhari's village, they are highly Atikulated. The APC campaign office in Katsina have been taking over by PDP.

I don't know who is going to win, but saying Obi will win the North must be voted as joke of the year.

2015 scenario and permutation are totally different, I'm sure u know this.. betrayal of zoning formula lead to Adamu Mauzu and others to do what he did, the slogan that time was presidency most go back to north no matter what!

Have u seen any infighting currently in APC like PDP in 2015?

Atiku is not the favorite in the north, he might be in Christian dominated areas! Wait for December it will be clear

Core northerners don't relate with Atiku! Those in rural/villages only follow what the elites(gov, senator, HOA, HOR etc) tell them to vote

Note* I'm not saying Atiku can't or won't win the north.. but Tinubu will give him a run for his money

Demigod22:
Comrade, you can still express your opinion without calling others fools. You are saying something about governors in APC, we are also in North, and one thing I know that the Northern politicians don't work with logic the way you think. Adamu Mauzu was a PDP national chairman but you saw what he did to Jonathan.

Even Buhari local government is dominated by PDP. I don't know who will win but if you are living in the North, you will know that for now, Atiku Abubakar is the favorite.

What makes you think the north can't support someone else?

rolams:
You are really missing something here bro. There is no way the Northerners will abandon their own son for Another tribe the same way the South Westerners, South Easterners and South Southerners will queue behind theirs.

The region with the the highest population and followers in the North Central will carry the day.


Take note, there may not be serious rigging this time around.

Anyone but not Tinubu







If u are dull, pls marry someone that is intelligent fa. Make all ur children assignments no come look like spiritual problems oh

Troublemaker111:
Peace was never an option

Said by every fool in History that will Bolt at the sight real action.